Sep 18 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set for a weaker open amidst mixed markets in Asia. Nikkei firmer. ASX slightly softer. Shenzhen leading declines in mainland China. Taiwan under pressure. US equity futures slightly higher with S&P up 0.1%
Markets wait for Fed meeting later. Markets pricing in ~60% chance of 50 bp rate cut while economists eyeing 25 bp reduction. Previews expect policy statement to set up future cuts while Chair Powell expected to match dovish Jackson Hole messaging. New dot plot forest to show 75 bp of cuts for 2024, though market continues to price ~110 in cuts by year-end.
Early attention on UK inflation data. Headline inflation forecast to remain at 2.2%, though upside risk seen for core reading and services prices. Fits in with cautious BoE policy decision on Thursday. Recent surveys show very big majority of sell-side economists anticipate the next rate cut in November. Eurozone final CPI and Jul construction output also due to be released as well as Sweden Aug unemployment rate.
In the UK, Politico reported UK Defense Secretary Healey said plans to reboot the Lancaster House Agreement, a defense pact signed between Britain and France in 2010, in recognition of increased threats from hostile actors. Also today, ahead of the Labour Party conf., Institute for Government event at 17:30BST title How can the new government's industrial strategy help boost productivity?
Elsewhere, EU's von der Leyen participates in the EP plenary debate on the presentation of the program of activities of the Hungarian Presidency.
In central banks, ECB's Buch remarks at 9:30CET at Supervision Innovators Conf (through Thu), panellist include Bank of Spain's Delgardo 10:10, McCaul speech 14:00. Bundesbank's Nagel lecture at 13:00CET at event title monetary policy in times of inflation at event hosted by Commerzbank. OeNB , SUERF, JVI, and the Yale Program on Financial Stability host conf, speakers/panellist include Austria central bank's Holzmann 9:00CET, Croatia central bank's Vujčić and Italy central bank's Perrazzelli 9:15. US Fed interest rate decision after the EU close.
On the corporate front, VINCI (DG.FP) issued Airports Aug airport passenger traffic +3.7%
In M&A news, Economic Times reported Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC) and Quadria Capital among investors interested in taking minority stake in Aragen whilst Bloomberg reported Reckitt Benckiser (RKT.LN) is said to begin early talks with possible bidders for its home care assets. Expansion reported ACS (ACS.SM) is among final bidders for Asterion and Telefonica's (TEF.SM) data center operator Nabiax.
Macro
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DG.FP (VINCI SA) -- VINCI Airports Aug airport passenger traffic +3.7%
ALSEN.FP (Sensorion) -- reports H1 net income (€13.9M) vs FactSet (€12.1M) [2 est, (€12.4)-(11.8M)]
PLAT.GA (Thrace Plastics Holding & Commercial) -- reports H1 net income €7.3M vs year-ago €8.8M
M&A
TEF.SM (Telefonica) -- ACS among final bidders for Asterion and Telefonica's data center operator Nabiax - Expansion
NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk) -- and Quadria Capital among investors interested in taking minority stake in Aragen - Economic Times
RKT.LN (Reckitt Benckiser) -- said to begin early talks with possible bidders for its home care assets -- Bloomberg
AAL.LN (Anglo American) -- New Hope joins race to acquire Anglo American's Queensland coal mines - Australian Financial Review
AGR (Avangrid) -- receives Maine Public Utilities Commission approval of Iberdrola's acquisition of the remaining 18.4% of AGR
G.IM (Assicurazioni Generali) -- Generali agrees sale of its Turkish business; price not disclosed
FDJ.FP (La Francaise des Jeux) -- FDJ Brings Forward the Expiry of the Acceptance Period of Its Offer on Kindred to 2 October After Having Obtained All Necessary Regulatory Approvals
Healthcare
ALCOX.FP (Nicox) -- announces approval of ZERVIATE in China
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- FDA approves Novartis' Kisqali to reduce risk of recurrence in people with HR+/HER2- early breast cancer
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- Submits Label Extension Applications for its Chikungunya Vaccine, IXCHIQ, to EMA and Health Canada
RLF.SW (RELIEF THERAPEUTICS Holding) -- Relief Therapeutics Completes Clinical Phase in RLF-OD032 Proof-of-Concept Study; Topline Results Expected in October 2024
IRLAB.A.SS (IRLAB Therapeutics) -- granted additional patent for its drug candidate pirepemat expanding the patent protection in the US
Other
BEIJ.B.SS (Beijer Ref) -- holder EQT offers about 20M shares -- Dagens Industri
MONC.IM (Moncler) -- holder Grinta offers 2.29M shares via JPMorgan -- Bloomberg, citing terms
NDX1.GR (Nordex) -- UKA places order with Nordex Group for 68 MW of N175/6.X turbines in Germany
EKTA.B.SS (Elekta) -- 's AI-powered adaptive CT-Linac, Elekta Evo, receives CE mark
AIR.FP (Airbus SE) -- Indonesian Air Force orders four Airbus H145 helicopters
CA.FP (Carrefour) -- announces continuation of the share buyback program for a maximum amount of €700M
ISS.DC (ISS A/S) -- shareholder KIRKBI sells 12.3M shares to Lind Value II ApS; decreases holding to ~9.07%
MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology) -- CEO Gunter Erfurt steps down and will leave the company
SCATC.NO (Scatec) -- ASA holder Innovation AS sells 7.1M shares for NOK 80.50 per share ABG Sundal Collier ASA
DoJ reportedly probing investment banks previously involved in Archegos Capital Management failure over collusion to control prices during trade unwinding - Bloomberg (earlier today)
Key rating changes
Upgrades
HMSO.LN (Hammerson) -- buy from neutral at Citi
BMW.GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke) -- neutral from sell at Citi
ROVI.SM (Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi,) -- outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
Goldman Sachs upgrades IHG.LN; downgrades WTB.LN
Goldman Sachs initiates ALV.GR, AV.LN, CS.FP, others; upgrades LRE.LN; downgrades HSX.LN, SAMPO.FH
AUSS.NO (Austevoll Seafood) -- to buy from hold at Danske Bank
CBK.GR (Commerzbank) -- to equal weight from underweight at Barclays
KNOS.LN (Kainos Group) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
Downgrades
DKSH.SW (DKSH Holding) -- neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
BNP.FP (BNP Paribas) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
SOON.SW (Sonova Holding) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
SXS.LN (Spectris) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
Initiations
ACKB.BB (Ackermans & Van Haaren) -- buy at Berenberg
Data
Nikkei +0.30% to 36311.71
Hang Seng closed
Shanghai Composite (0.27%) to 2696.73
S&P futures +2.5 vs prior close of 5700.3
€-$ +0.0005 or +0.04% to 1.1119
$-¥ (0.96) or (0.67%) to 141.46
€-¥ (1.03) or (0.65%) to 157.26
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