Sep 19 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open in positive territory amidst Asian equities mostly higher Thursday. Nikkei outperforming with yen notably lower. Hang Seng swinging higher with property developers and tech rallying. Mainland China also turning positive. Taiwan and Australia also firming. Kospi weighed down by SK Hynix following broker rating downgrade. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures +1% afterhours. Bonds under pressure with Treasury and JGB yield curves bear steepening. Dollar seeing broad-based gains, though has come off a bit. Crude, gold and copper lower. Bitcoin nearing late August highs.
Fed's 50 bp rate cut reverberating. Chair Powell cautioned not to presume outsized rate cuts will continue thoughmarkets continuing to price in more dovish rate path than implied by dot plot
Focus today on further central banks updates in Europe with Norges Bank interest rate decision at 10:00CET, press conf 10.30. No change in benchmark interest rate of 4.5% expected. BOE interest rate decision at 12noon BST, MPC minutes, inflation letter, quarterly bulletin. No change in 5.0% benchmark interest rate expected (rate cuts expected to commence in Nov), and will announce QT of up to £120B for coming 12 months. Turkey central bank interest rate decision, Benchmark interest rate currently 50%. BoJ interest rate decision after EU market close.
Central bank speakers see Bundesbank's Balz speech at 9:10CET at BAI Innovations Day and Nagel speech at 13:30CET at Annual Summit Stern Stewart & Co. Netherlands central bank's Knot speech at 9:15CET. ECB's Schnabel panellist at 11:00CET at event hosted by Assn of German Banks and chairs panel at 16:40 at ECB annual research conf. (through Fri). Bank of Lithuania conf (through Fri) title 'macroeconomic adjustments after large global shocks' as well as Bank of Italy's Angelini remarks at Bank of Italy-CEPR Labour workshop.
Also on today's agenda, EU's von der Leyen participates in a press conf at the International Energy Agency, on support to Ukraine's energy security for the coming winter. Informal EU transport ministers meeting (through Fri). Defense Conf 2024, under the title "The Nordics in NATO - a political perspective''. Switzerland SECO releases latest economic forecasts. European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) Aug new passenger car registrations for EU + EFTA + UK.
Macroeconomic releases today include: Switzerland Aug trade balance (and watch export data) and Netherlands unemployment rate.
In corporate news, Basilea (BSLN.SW) enters into agreement with BARDA to develop novel antifungals and antibacterials and receives initial funding; raises FY24 guidance. Also in the DACH region, AEVIS VICTORIA (AEVS.SW) reports H1 numbers. Out of the Nordics, NOTE(NOTE.SS) cuts guidance amid further slowdown in customer demand; pushes out long-term goal sales goal by one year. In the UK, Next (NXT.LN) and Ocado Group (OCDO.LN) are expected to update the market with their respective earnings/trading update. In France, Alten (ATE.FP), Esker (ALESK.FP) are due to report.
On M&A front, NewRiver REIT confirmed yesterday after the close it had made a cash and share offer to acquire Capital & Regional (CAL.LN) for £147M.
Macro/Politics/World News
Zelensky to present Ukraine peace plan to Biden - The Times
What the EU's new competition tsar Teresa Ribera thinks about Chinese EV tariffs - FT
Germany retains quiet grip on Europe's finances - Politico
Bank of England expected to hold interest rates at 5% - BBC
Turkey seen awaiting more evidence before starting to cut rates - Bloomberg
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
WCH.GR (Wacker Chemie) -- CMD update: confirms strategy and 2030 growth targets
ADXN.SW (Addex Therapeutics) -- reports preliminary H1 net income CHF9.8M vs year-ago (CHF5.1M)
NWRN.SW (Newron Pharmaceuticals) -- reports H1 net income (€9.6M) vs year-ago (€7.0M)
AEVS.SW (AEVIS VICTORIA) -- reports H1 net income CHF0.7M vs year-ago (CHF10.2M)
France
NANO.FP (Nanobiotix) -- reports H1 net income (€21.9M) vs FactSet (€18.8M) [1 est]
S30.FP (Solutions 30) -- reports H1 net income (€5.9M) vs year-ago (€14.4M)
Nordics
NOTE.SS (NOTE) -- cuts guidance amid further slowdown in customer demand; pushes out long-term goal sales goal by one year
M&A
CBK.GR (Commerzbank) -- CFO Bettina Orlopp to lead talks with UniCredit (UCG.IM) - Reuters
AOX.GR (Alstria) -- office REIT announces squeeze-out demand regarding shares of minority shareholders, amendment to investment agreement, loss of REIT-status at year-end 2024
AAL.LN (Anglo American) -- Stanmore and Yancoal among shortlisted bidders in Anglo American's Australian coal auction - EQT.SS (EQT AB) -- EQT to sell Open Systems to Swiss Post; terms not disclosed
DWNI.GR (Deutsche Wohnen) -- Vonovia and Deutsche Wohnen initiate process to conclude transfer agreement
ACKB.BB (Ackermans & Van Haaren) -- STAR Capital consortium (including Ackermans & van Haaren) completes acquisition of V.Group
NTG.DC (NTG Nordic Transport Group) -- to acquire ITC Logistics GmbH
COIC.SS (Concentric) -- AB announces acquisition of GO Engineering
CAL.LN (Capital & Regional) -- NewRiver REIT offers to acquire the entire issued share capital of Capital & Regional for ~ £147M
HOCN.SW (HOCHDORF Holding) -- shareholders approve sale of the subsidiary HOCHDORF Swiss Nutrition Ltd
Healthcare
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Roche's Phase III CENTERSTONE study of Xofluza met its primary endpoint, demonstrating that a single, oral dose of Xofluza taken by people infected with influenza significantly reduced contagion
BSLN.SW (Basilea) -- enters into agreement with BARDA to develop novel antifungals and antibacterials and receives initial funding; raises FY24 guidance
Other
DG.FP (VINCI SA) -- VINCI SA's Australian subsidiary awarded two contracts valued at A$340M for road work
RECSI.NO (REC Silicon) -- REC Silicon and Sila Sign Long-Term Silane Supply agreement
Key rating changes
Upgrades
AF.FP (Air France-KLM) -- to neutral from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
SAGA.B.SS (Sagax) -- to buy from hold at Pareto
TRN.LN (Trainline) -- to neutral from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
Downgrades
VOLV.B.SS (Volvo) -- to hold from buy at DnB Markets
ANTO.LN (Antofagasta) -- to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
DHL.GR (DHL Group) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
Initiations
MRK.GR (Merck KGaA) -- buy at Goldman Sachs
AHT.LN (Ashtead Group) -- buy at Berenberg
Data
Nikkei +2.33% to 37227.64
Hang Seng +1.83% to 17983.17
Shanghai Composite +0.72% to 2736.75
S&P futures +54.0 vs prior close of 5680.0
€-$ +0.0009 or +0.08% to 1.1129
$-¥ +0.50 or +0.35% to 142.79
€-¥ +0.68 or +0.43% to 158.87
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