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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (1.20%) to 8228.37, DAX (1.44%) to 18729.21, CAC40 (1.45%) to 7505.32, STOXX 600 (1.42%) to 514.25

Sep 20 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets ended in negative territory with pan-European indices closing at around lowest levels of the session. Denmark (3.9%), France (1.4%), Finland (1.3%) led the underperformers whilst Spain (0.0%) and Portugal (0.1%) led the outperformers.

    • In political developments, French PM Barnier is close to forming a government amid reports he has presented the names of cabinet to President Macron (Le Monde). Former PM Attal, a member of Macron's party, told MPs Barnier considering 38 ministers, including 16 in senior roles. Press said Barnier could appoint seven MPs from Macron's Renaissance party and three from his own right-wing Republicans.

    • From a macroeconomic calendar perspective, UK retail sales beat in August but underlying confidence remains fragile. On the month, retail sales up 1% versus consensus 0.3% and prior 0.7% increase revised from 0.5%, leaving y/y gain of 2.5%. UK public finance data came in ahead of expectations and national debt hit 100% of GDP and likely reinforces Chancellor Reeves' argument it is better to take the difficult decisions on finances now rather than later in the parliament. German PPI beat expectations in August coming at +0.2% m/m vs consensus 0.0% and prior +0.2%. French business climate steady in September.

    • Central bank narrative continued with market participants evaluating impact of outsized Fed rate cut on other central bank policy. Some thoughts it is unlikely to shift cautious approach from ECB and BoE. Hawkish MPC member Mann said policy needs to stay restrictive to purge inflationary behaviours. ECB's de Guindos and Rehn highlighted data-dependency in remarks on policy.

    • In corporate news, Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG.GR) shares were trading lower as company issued a profit warning; expects 2024 EBIT to be significantly below prior-year level vs prior expectations for slightly below prior-year level. In France, Alten (ATE.FP) was also trading lower following H1 earnings and cut guidance. Moving in the opposite direction was GENFIT (GNFT.FP) with shares notably higher on the back of strong H1 report. In the UK, Investec (INVP.LN) released a H1 trading update: expects H1 adj. EPS between 37.2-40.2p vs year-ago 38.7p.

    • On M&A front, Esker (ALESK.FP) and Bridgepoint (BPT.LN) announced proposed cash tender offer by Bridgepoint at €262 per share. Societe Generale (GLE.FP) signed agreement with Atlantic Financial Group to sell its subsidiary Société Générale Guinée. Publicis Groupe (PUB.FP) acquired Mars United Commerce. Volution Group plc (FAN.LN) signed an agreement to acquire Fantech Group in Australasia for AUD$280M (£144M). EQT (EQT.SS) to acquire Indostar Home Finance for $210M.

    • The week ahead sees SNB and Riksbank interest rate decisions, United Nations Future Summit, UK Labour Party conf., Eurozone, France, Germany, UK Sep flash manufacturing/services PMIs, Germany Sep Ifo survey as well as earnings/updates from H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS), Halma (HLMA.LN) and Smiths Group (SMIN.LN).

    • Of note, EU's deadline (20-Sep) for the submission of four-year plans to resolve excessive deficits of seven countries (Italy, Belgium, France, Hungary, Malta, Poland, and Slovakia) passed, with Italy having indicated that it will miss the deadline, likely presenting the plan in the first week of Oct. France and Belgium have requested deadline extensions to mid Oct, though the French government has to submit the budget for 2025 to the national parliament by 1-Oct.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers

        • Utilities +0.66%, Telecom +0.14%, Banks (0.48%), Insurance (0.45%), Financial Svcs (0.44%), Media (0.59%), Real Estate(0.63%), Travel & Leisure (1.03%), Oil & Gas (1.15%), Construct & Mtls (1.34%)

      • Underperformers

        • Autos & Parts (3.57%), Technology (2.72%), Basic Resources (2.60%), Persnl & HHold Goods (2.12%), Food & Beverage (2.03%), Health Care (1.88%), Chemicals (1.82%), Ind Goods & Svcs (1.50%), Retail (1.47%)

    • Macro/Peripheral markets:

      • EU

        • EU and China want to settle differences over electric car tariffs - Handelsblatt

        • Plunging car sales adds to EU manufacturers gloom - London Times

        • EU to raise €35B loan for Ukraine using Russia's frozen assets, von der Leyen says - Euronews

      • UK

        • UK retail sales beat expectations - ONS

        • Public sector borrowing higher than forecast - ONS

        • UK consumer confidence dives amid Labour tax warnings - Bloomberg

        • Reeves's £10B windfall raises pressure to drop winter fuel cut - London Times

        • Britain's family businesses says inheritance tax would destroy us - Bloomberg

        • Thames Water seeks to delay billions in debt repayments - Telegraph

      • Germany

        • German economy only expected to resume growth at the end of the year - Bloomberg

        • German producer prices firmer than forecast in August - Destasis

        • Plans for an anti-Merz campaign are taking shape - Handelsblatt

        • Germany's Scholz risks Biden's fate - Politico

      • France

        • Barnier pitches new cabinet to overcome political impasse - Bloomberg

        • France nears new government as Barnier proposes cabinet to Macron - Reuters

      • Greece

        • SYRIZA MP submits resignation after controversial post, leadership declines to accept - ekathimerini

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +17.1% ENSU.NO (Ensurge Micropower NOK1.02, +0.15) -- places 75M-share at NOK1/sh

        • +12.3% ALESK.FP (Esker €263.80, +28.80) -- cash tender offer by Bridgepoint at €262 per share; H1 earnings

        • +11.4% FAN.LN (Volution Group £6.17, +0.63) -- acquires Fantech Group in Australasia for AUD$280M (£144M)

        • +10.2% GNFT.FP (GENFIT €4.29, +0.40) -- H1 earnings

        • +1.9% AOF.GR (ATOSS Software €130.60, +2.40) -- initiated buy at Deutsche Bank

        • +1.8% SECU.B.SS (Securitas SEK129.40, +2.25) -- Nordea upgrade

        • +1.4% IG.IM (Italgas €5.42, +0.08) -- Blackrock reportedly weighing potential purchase of 40% stake in Italgas unit Medea -- Websim

        • +0.9% UN0.GR (Uniper €43.47, +0.37) -- German government says sale via the capital market is the key option for Germany to re-privatise Uniper -- Reuters

      • Notable Decliners

        • -6.9% MBG.GR (Mercedes-Benz Group €54.94, -4.09) -- 2024 profit warning

        • -6.3% SIX2.GR (Sixt €61.60, -4.15) -- Mercedes sympathy

        • -5.4% NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk DKK850.00, -48.20) -- announces headline results from a phase 2a clinical trial with monlunabant

        • -4.8% DEZ.GR (Deutz AG €4.48, -0.22) -- CFO resigns

        • -4.6% VACN.SW (VAT Group CHF398.20, -19.10) -- Morgan Stanley downgrade

        • -4.5% INVP.LN (Investec £5.65, -0.27) -- H1 trading update

        • -4.3% TRMD.A.DC (TORM Plc DKK234.60, -10.60) -- SEB downgrade

        • -3.4% BRBY.LN (Burberry Group £6.05, -0.21) -- Jefferies downgrade

        • -3.3% STLAM.IM (Stellantis €13.49, -0.47) -- Mercedes sympathy

        • -3.3% VOW3.GR (Volkswagen €90.72, -3.14) -- Mercedes sympathy

        • -3.2% RNO.FP (Renault €38.27, -1.26) -- Mercedes sympathy

        • -3.2% BMW.GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke €73.68, -2.46) -- Mercedes sympathy

        • -2.7% CNE.LN (Capricorn Energy £2.19, -0.06) -- BofA downgrade

        • -2.4% UHR.SW (Swatch Group CHF153.50, -3.80) -- Jefferies downgrade

        • -1.8% BAVA.DC (Bavarian Nordic A/S DKK241.80, -4.40) -- Mpox vaccine granted EMA approval for adolescents 12 to 17 years of age

        • -1.7% BOSS.GR (Hugo Boss €37.64, -0.66) -- CEO purchase 27k shares

    • EU companies reporting on Monday:

      • Earnings:

        • France: Quadient (QDT.FP), Visiativ (ALVIV.FP), Crossject (ALCJ.FP), HDF Energy (HDF.FP), Gensight Biologics (SIGHT.FP), Poxel (POXEL.FP)

        • UK: Alphawave IP (AWE.LN), Oxford Biomedica (OXB.LN), Arecor Therapeutics (AREC.LN)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • UK Aug Retail Sales +2.5% y/y vs consensus +1.4% and prior revised +1.5% from +1.4%; +1.0% m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior revised +0.7% from +0.5%

      • Germany Aug PPI (0.8%) y/y vs consensus (1.0%) and prior (0.8%); +0.2% m/m vs consensus 0.0% and prior +0.2%

      • France Sep Business Survey 99 vs consensus 99 and prior 99

      • Spain Sep Trade Balance (€3.2B) vs consensus (€4.2B) and prior (€0.71B)

      • Eurozone Sep Flash Consumer Confidence (12.9) vs consensus (13.0) and prior (13.5)

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Oct 24): +$0.14 or +0.19% to $72.09

      • €-$ (0.0019) or (0.17%) to 1.1143

      • £-$ (0.0005) or (0.04%) to 1.3279

      • €-£ (0.0013) to 0.8391

      • S&P 500 (0.45%)

        • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +6.40%

        • DAX: +11.82%

        • CAC: (0.53%)

        • MIB: +11.21%

        • Stoxx 600: +7.36%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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