Sep 24 ,2024
Synopsis:
European indices have ended in positive territory. On the macro front, the latest German Ifo index painted a gloomy picture for Europe's largest economy. In September, the index declined for the fifth consecutive month, dropping to 85.4 from 88.6 in August and 86.0 expected, returning to levels last seen at the start of the year. Current assessment component also took a significant hit, declining to 84.4 from 86.4 prior and 86.0 expected, while expectations only marginally decreased to 86.3 from 86.8 prior and 86.4 expected. ING suggested decline reinforces fears Germany is in a recession with no quick rebound in sight. Manufacturing sector struggling with lowest index level since 2020, reflecting lack of orders and broader industrial challenges. While severe economic slump seems unlikely, Bundesbank has warned of a possible Q3 contraction. In central banks news, recent Eurozone economic data enhancing case for quicker ECB easing. Analysts agree September PMIs showed broad-based weakness. Employment growth stalling, wage growth cooling, and inflation expected to continue decelerating. ECB officials have not signaled urgency for faster cuts, but October cut now seen possible if dovish economic news continue. Analysts note probability of 0.25% ECB October cut rose from 25% to 42% and may continue to rise. BoE Governor Bailey said in an interview with Kent Online that inflation has come down a long way, but still needs to get to target sustainably. Comments follow last week's BoE decision to leave rates unchanged after cutting rates by 25 bps in August. Added he is encouraged path of inflation downwards and rates will come down gradually but will not get back to historic lows. Highlighted he could not say with accuracy where rates will settle but said it would require a significant shock to economy to see near zero rates again
Also in focus, concerns over French budget have seen borrowing costs increase. French PM Barnier talked up need to tackle deficit but may struggle to implement measures given trade-offs needed to maintain a stable government. In the UK, Chancellor Reeves said she stands by cut to winter fuel payments because of way prior Conservative government ran economy. Meanwhile, the European Commission announced it was carrying out unannounced antitrust inspections at the premises of companies active in the financial services sector in two Member States; the products concerned by the inspections are financial derivatives
On a light corporate front, Smiths Group (SMIN.LN) and Card Factory (CARD.LN) posted their latest numbers whilst - in Germany - TUI Group (TUI1.GR) issuesd a pre-close trading update and DHL Group (DHL.GR) presnted its Strategy 2030. In France, Legrand (LR.FP) also presented its 2030 ambitions at CMD today. In M&A news, EU cleared Swisscom (SCMNSW) acquisition of Vodafone Italia (VOD.LN) for €8B on a debt and cash free basis. SHL Telemedicine (SHLTN.SW) acquired remaining stake of Mediton for an undisclosed sum. Press reports suggest REA Group (REA.AU) could be willing to again increase bid for Rightmove (RMV.LN) to get deal over the line. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz sees UniCredit's (UCG.IM) move on Commerzbank (CBK.GR) as "hostile"
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendars, Medacta (MOVE.SW), HORNBACH Holding & Co. (HBH.GR), Synergie (SDG.FP), Beneteau (BEN.FP), Guerbet (GBT.FP), DFS Furniture (DFS.LN), On The Beach Group (OTB.LN) and Harboes Bryggeri (HARB.B.DC) will be among few other names to update investors. whilst Flutter Entertainment (FLTR.LN), CTP (CTPNV.NA), Mowi (MOWI.NO) Medacta Group (MOVE.SW) will hold their CMDs. Macro-data will include France Sep consumer confidence, Spain Aug PPI, Switzerland Sep ZEW expectations and the interest rate decision from the Riksbank (9:30 CET)
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers: Basic Resources +4.53%, Persnl & HHold Goods +1.82%, Autos & Parts +1.18%, Travel & Leisure +0.95%, Chemicals +0.89%, Banks +0.80%, Food & Beverage +0.78%, Technology +0.77%, Insurance +0.67%
Underperformers: Real Estate(0.67%), Financial Svcs (0.26%), Media (0.14%), Utilities (0.03%), Health Care +0.13%, Oil & Gas +0.22%, Construct & Mtls +0.25%, Telecom +0.45%, Retail +0.48%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.53%
Macro:
German Ifo index drops again in September (ING)
France's borrowing costs converge with Spain's as budget concerns grow (FT)
The left won France's election, but its new government will be at the mercy of the far right (CNN)
Germany's bid to kill EU duties on Chinese EVs (Politico)
Germany and France call for Europe-wide deal with UK on migration (Guardian)
Musk presents award to Meloni, hails PM's 'incredible job (Ansa)
PM Keir Starmer to argue tough decisions are needed for UK national renewal (FT)
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+13.6% BYW6.GR (BayWa €12.38, +1.50) -- restructuring update
+12.1% MAB1.LN (Mortgage Advice Bureau £6.10, +0.66) -- H1 earnings
+11.5% AMS.SW (ams-OSRAM CHF1.03, +0.11) -- 10:1 reverse share split timetable; UBS upgrade
+10.2% SWTQ.SW (Schweiter Technologies CHF418.00, +38.50) -- CMD update
+6.8% MARI.AV (Marinomed Biotech €9.48, +0.60) -- positive clinical results for unique Carragelose eye drops
+5.8% NIOX.LN (NIOX Group £0.70, +0.04) -- H1 earnings
+4.9% OKEA.NO (Okea NOK21.18, +0.98) -- sells 15% working interest in Yme license for $15.65M
+4.8% RIO.LN (Rio Tinto $50.60, +2.32) -- Sympathy moves after China stepped up policy support
+4.7% TEN.IM (Tenaris €13.85, +0.63) -- reasonable in Nov board meeting to consider use of authorization for $700M additional buyback -- investor presentation
+4.6% PRU.LN (Prudential £6.68, +0.29) -- Sympathy moves after China stepped up policy support
+4.3% ALATI.FP (Actia Group €3.67, +0.15) -- H1 earnings
+4.3% PGH.LN (Personal Group Holdings £1.70, +0.07) -- H1 earnings; initiated buy at Canaccord Genuity
+4.1% CFR.SW (Richemont CHF118.90, +4.70) -- Sympathy moves after China stepped up policy support
+4.1% GLEN.LN (Glencore £4.01, +0.16) -- Sympathy moves after China stepped up policy support
+3.8% BMW.GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke €78.36, +2.88) -- German minister Habeck wants to help car industry; however no concrete measures were announced post auto summit -- Handelsblatt
+3.7% AEF.IM (Aeffe €0.73, +0.03) -- Creative Director steps down
+3.0% MC.FP (LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton €614.20, +18.10) -- Sympathy moves after China stepped up policy support
+2.9% PEUG.FP (Peugeot Invest €75.80, +2.10) -- H1 earnings
+2.2% CBK.GR (Commerzbank €15.10, +0.32) -- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz sees UniCredit's move on Commerzbank as "hostile" -- Reuters
+2.0% OIZ.ID (Origin Enterprises €3.53, +0.07) -- FY earnings
+1.8% RS1.LN (RS Group plc £8.02, +0.14) -- re-affirms group's medium-term targets at Investor Event
+1.8% VOW3.GR (Volkswagen €94.58, +1.70) -- German minister Habeck wants to help car industry; however no concrete measures were announced post auto summit -- Handelsblatt
+1.5% MBG.GR (Mercedes-Benz Group €56.93, +0.82) -- German minister Habeck wants to help car industry; however no concrete measures were announced post auto summit -- Handelsblatt
+1.5% JMAT.LN (Johnson Matthey £14.94, +0.22) -- commences second £125M tranche of buyback
+1.5% DHL.GR (DHL Group €38.37, +0.56) -- announces "Strategy 2030"
+1.4% IDIA.SW (Idorsia CHF1.37, +0.02) -- QUVIVIQ for treatment of insomnia approved by Japan MHLW
+0.8% A28890.GR (CompuGroup Medical €13.60, +0.11) -- business insider article
+0.5% S30.FP (Solutions 30 €1.40, +0.01) -- acquisition of Xperal
+0.1% LR.FP (Legrand €104.55, +0.10) -- 2024 Capital Markets Day presents its 2030 ambitions
Notable Decliners
-28.0% DIA.LN (Dialight £1.73, -0.70) -- Sanmina litigation update
-21.1% CARD.LN (Card Factory £1.12, -0.30) -- H1 earnings
-7.2% HSS.LN (HSS Hire Group £0.06, -0.01) -- H1 earnings
-6.5% SHLTN.SW (SHL Telemedicine CHF2.88, -0.20) -- acquires remaining stake of Mediton
-6.3% DNLM.LN (Dunelm Group £11.55, -0.78) -- holder WA Capital places 10M shares at 1,140p/share
-5.8% SMIN.LN (Smiths Group £17.13, -1.06) -- FY earnings; acquires two North American companies for a combined price of up to £110M
-5.6% HUM.LN (Hummingbird Resources £0.09, -0.00) -- H1 earnings
-3.0% GIG.NO (Gaming Innovation Group NOK28.20, -0.86) -- shares trade ex-right to receive NDRs; name change
-1.2% AXS.LN (Accsys Technologies £0.50, -0.01) -- new CFO
-0.2% QDT.FP (Quadient €16.74, -0.04) -- H1 earnings; launches €30M share buyback
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
DACHs: Medacta (MOVE.SW), HORNBACH Holding & Co. (HBH.GR)
France: Synergie (SDG.FP), Beneteau (BEN.FP), Guerbet (GBT.FP), Infotel (INF.FP), HEXAOM (ALGEX.FP), Inventiva (IVA.FP), PHAXIAM Therapeutics (PHXM.FP)
Southern Europe: Philogen (PHIL.IM), Admie (ADMIE.GA), Digital Value (DGV.IM)
UK/Ireland: DFS Furniture (DFS.LN), Avingtrans (AVG.LN), Everyman Media (EMAN.LN)
Trading Update: On The Beach Group (OTB.LN), Harboes Bryggeri (HARB.B.DC)
CMD/events: Flutter Entertainment (FLTR.LN), CTP (CTPNV.NA), Mowi (MOWI.NO), Medacta Group (MOVE.SW)
Data:
Economics:
Germany Sep IFO Business Climate 85.4 vs consensus 86.1 and prior 86.6
Finland Aug
PPI (2.3%) y/y vs consensus (1.5%) and prior +0.2%
Unemployment Rate 7.5% vs consensus 7.6% and prior 7.9%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Nov 24): +$0.87 or +1.24% to $71.24
€-$ +0.0040 or +0.36% to 1.1153
£-$ +0.0031 or +0.23% to 1.3379
€-£ +0.0010 to 0.8336
S&P 500 +0.10%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +7.08%
DAX: +13.35%
CAC: +0.76%
MIB: +11.60%
Stoxx 600: +8.47%
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