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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.19% to 8292.75, DAX (0.33%) to 19149.03, CAC40 (0.07%) to 7568.90, STOXX 600 +0.02% to 520.99

Oct 02 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices ended mixed, with Norway outperforming the region. Geopolitics still in focus with escalating Middle East tensions triggering a surge in crude prices after Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel Tuesday, raising worries about potential disruption of crude output from the region. Analysts noted escalating geopolitical tensions could be a curveball for central banks currently unwinding rate policies as risk of potential rise in oil prices could undo some of the recent progress on inflation. In addition, some warn that protracted US port strikes could also further stoke inflation.

    • On the macro calendar, Eurozone August Unemployment Rate at 6.4% in line vs consensus and unchanged from prior 6.4% while Italy unemployment rate falls to 6.2% vs consensus 6.7% and prior revised to 6.4% from 6.5%, at lowest level since 2007.

    • In central banks news, sell-side broadly all expects ECB to deliver a 25bp rate cut at its 17-Oct meeting, following recent data indicating economic weakness and slowing inflation. Market pricing suggests a 90% likelihood of this cut, which would follow reductions made in June and September. The BoE Financial Policy Committee published its Q3 update and said risks to UK financial system broadly unchanged from June. Left countercyclical capital buffer for UK banks at 2%, as expected. Noted significant spike in volatility across markets in August. Highlighted extent of moves in response to relatively limited economic news shows the potential for vulnerabilities in market-based finance to amplify shocks. Added valuations across several asset classes, particularly equity markets, quickly return to stretched levels. Noted further signs of easing in credit conditions, reflecting improvements in macroeconomic outlook

    • In France, analysts are still evaluating French PM Barnier's plans to rein in budget deficit. In his first official address Tuesday, confirmed two-thirds of fiscal consolidation to come via spending cuts and rest via tax increases. ING highlighted Barnier's promise to reach to EU's budget deficit target of 3% of GDP by 2029 would require savings of €110B, which was virtually impossible (Telegraph). Fits in with previous estimate by finance ministry that €25B-€30B in spending cuts and tax rises needed next year. Citibank highlighted doubts over the longevity of the government undermine most of the policy color. Barnier opened the door to discussions with unions on changes to Macron's pension reforms. Confidence vote expected by early next week. Expectation is government will survive for now with Le Pen reiterating conditional support. BNP said plans for temporary higher taxes on large firms to have limited impact. Expects French exposed names to play catch up. Note, government to put forward budget plans and assembly have 70 days to vote but will have limited room to maneuver

    • Light on the corporate front. In Germany, GRENKE (GLJ.GR) issued a Q3 update while GEA Group (G1A.GR) unveiled its "Mission 30" strategy in connection with its CMD. In the UK, JD Sports Fashion (JD.LN) and Topps Tiles (TPT.LN) are among others in the region to update investors with their latest numbers. Following an earlier rumour in the press, Saga (SAGA.LN) confirmed it is in discussions with Ageas (AGS.BB) with regard to a potential partnership arrangement for its insurance business. Press reports also suggest TPG, JSW Energy and Inox Wind in running to acquire Siemens Energy (ENR.GR) Gamesa Renewable Power's India unit.

    • Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendars, Tesco (TSCO.LN), Galliford Try Holdings (GFRD.LN) and Nordnet (SAVE.SS) are updating their investors, whilst Sika (SIKA.SW) hold sits CMD. Macro-data will include Italy, Spain, Sweden Sep services PMIs as well as final reads for Eurozone, France, Germany and UK, Switzerland Sep CPI and Eurozone Aug PPI

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers: Oil & Gas +1.51%, Technology +0.97%, Basic Resources +0.91%, Media +0.40%, Financial Svcs +0.35%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.28%, Banks +0.18%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.12%

      • Underperformers: Utilities (1.60%), Retail (1.17%), Travel & Leisure (1.14%), Real Estate(0.79%), Telecom (0.56%), Autos & Parts (0.53%), Health Care (0.45%), Insurance (0.41%), Food & Beverage (0.20%), Construct & Mtls (0.07%), Chemicals (0.01%)

    • Macro:

      • France plans eye-watering €40B in budget cuts for 2025 (Politico)

      • Michel Barnier seems shocked by Emmanuel Macron's mess (Spectator)

      • Germany's Scholz calls for more talks with China on electric vehicles (Reuters)

      • Badenoch Runs UK Tory Leadership Campaign From Currency Guru's Home (BBG)

      • Mideast crisis: Meloni calls G7 meeting (Ansa)

      • Bank of England warns

        • UK at risk of credit crunch amid market vulnerabilities (BM)

        • 'future stress' from hedge fund bets against US Treasuriies (FT)

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +8.7% SAGA.LN (Saga Plc £1.22, +0.10) -- confirms in discussions with Ageas with regard to a potential partnership arrangement for its insurance business

        • +3.2% DSV.DC (DSV A/S DKK1,417.00, +44.50) -- receives both seller approvals to acquire Schenker

        • +3.1% SQZ.LN (Serica Energy £1.39, +0.04) -- Bittern B6 well update

        • +2.9% GLJ.GR (GRENKE €24.85, +0.70) -- Q3 business update; completes share buyback

        • +2.6% SOP.FP (Sopra Steria Group €191.00, +4.80) -- €150M share buyback programme

        • +2.5% SSH1V.FH (SSH Communications Security €1.22, +0.03) -- new partnerships

        • +2.0% G1A.GR (GEA Group €44.86, +0.86) -- presents "Mission 30" group strategy at CMD

        • +1.9% TTE.FP (TotalEnergies €60.48, +1.15) -- to invest $10.5B in oil project offshore Suriname

        • +1.4% ADS.GR (Adidas €236.30, +3.30) -- Nike guidance withdrawal sympathy

        • +1.4% SNWS.LN (Smiths News £0.58, +0.01) -- post close trading statement

        • +0.5% BRE.IM (Brembo €9.73, +0.05) -- divests entire ~5.58% stake in Pirelli

      • Notable Decliners

        • -24.4% C3RY.GR (Cherry €1.31, -0.39) -- Q3 profit warning; restructuring of the Gaming & Office Peripherals division

        • -11.2% PINE.LN (Pinewood Technologies Group £3.25, -0.41) -- H1 earnings

        • -11.1% BOR.LN (Borders & Southern Petroleum £0.02, -0.00) -- £1.5M fundraising

        • -6.7% WIZZ.LN (Wizz Air Holdings £12.78, -0.92) -- Sep traffic

        • -6.1% JD.LN (JD Sports Fashion £1.41, -0.09) -- H1 earnings

        • -5.6% HSD.LN (Hansard Global £0.51, -0.03) -- new CFO

        • -4.2% TPT.LN (Topps Tiles £0.42, -0.02) -- trading update

        • -2.7% PIRC.IM (Pirelli & C. €5.17, -0.15) -- shareholder Brembo divests entire ~5.58% stake

        • -1.1% PUM.GR (Puma €37.20, -0.42) -- Nike guidance withdrawal sympathy

        • -0.6% RYA.ID (Ryanair Holdings €16.12, -0.11) -- Sep traffic

        • -0.2% AGS.BB (Ageas €47.88, -0.12) -- Saga confirms in discussions with Ageas with regard to potential partnership arrangement for its insurance business

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings: Tesco (TSCO.LN), Galliford Try Holdings (GFRD.LN)

      • Trading Update: Nordnet (SAVE.SS)

      • CMD/events: Sika (SIKA.SW)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Eurozone Aug Unemployment Rate 6.4% vs consensus 6.4% and prior 6.4%

      • Italy Aug Unemployment Rate 6.2% vs consensus 6.7% and prior revised 6.4% from 6.5%

      • Spain Sep Unemployment Change 3.2K vs consensus 12.1K and prior 21.9K

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Nov 24): +$0.56 or +0.80% to $70.39

      • €-$ (0.0016) or (0.14%) to 1.1055

      • £-$ (0.0018) or (0.14%) to 1.3267

      • €-£ (0.0008) to 0.8325

      • S&P 500 +0.13%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +7.24%

        • DAX: +14.31%

        • CAC: +0.34%

        • MIB: +10.90%

        • Stoxx 600: +8.77%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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