Oct 07 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly higher, following last week's losses when the STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.80%). French CAC underperformed last week and fell (3.2%) after French PM Barnier outlined his plan for fiscal consolidation. Middle East tensions weighed on sentiment, which impacted several sectors, boosted oil prices and gold recorded a new record high.
The week ahead sees Eurogroup meeting, Chancellor Scholz meet with US President Biden, German Aug industrial production, Switzerland Sep Consumer Climate - SECO, UK Aug industrial/manufacturing production as well as earnings/updates from the likes of Givaudan (GIVN.SW), OMV (OMV.AV), Porsche (P911.GR), Repsol (REP.SM) and Tryg (TRYG.DC).
European macro data releases out today include Germany Aug factory orders, Norway Aug manufacturing production, Denmark Aug manufacturing production, Eurozone Aug retail sales, Oct Sentix investor confidence, UK Sep house price index - Halifax
Today's agenda also sees, in central banks, Bundesbank's Payment Transactions Symposium, speakers include ECB's Cipollone at 9:05CET, Bundesbank's Balz 9:25, ECB conf on Monetary Policy (through Tue), ECB's Lane speech at 9:45CET, ECB's Escriva speech at 13:45CET at event in Madrid organised by KPMG and Expansión, and Bundesbank's Nagel speech at 16:30CET. BaFin and Bundesbank joint press conf. at 12:00CET on the results of the Less Significant Institutions stress test 2024. Elsewhere, there's Eurogroup meeting, participants include ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone and in UK, MPs return after the Party conf recess, with questions on work and pensions including on winter fuel payments. In Norway, finance minister presents to parliament at 10:00CET the government's proposal for the state budget 2025, press conf at 12:30. Chancellor Scholz attends Hamburg Sustainability Conf . EU's Vestager in fire side chat on Europe AI and global competitiveness at the CopenhAIgen Forum and speaks later in the day at AI related event . Also, World Investor Week. Non-GMO Summit (through Tue). Also, DS Smith (SMDS.LN) shareholders vote on offer from International Paper (IP). Airbus (AIR.FP) latest monthly orders/deliveries
Stocks in focus this morning include Rio Tinto (RIO.LN) as it makes non-binding approach for Arcadium Lithium (LTM.AU). Mytheresa to acquire YOOX NET-A-PORTER in exchange for Richemont (CFR.SW) to take a 33% equity stake in Mytheresa. Italgas (IG.IM) announces that 2i Rete Gas has accepted the company's acquisition offer of ~$5.3B. Shell (SHEL.LN) is to issue Q3 2024 Quarterly Update Release.
Politics/Macro/World News
ECB's Villeroy: Will "quite probably" cut rates in Oct due to rising risk of inflation undershooting 2% target - La Repubblica Interview
Starmer Forced Into Messy Reset Less Than 100 Days In -- Bloomberg
UK Salaries Rise at Weakest Pace Since 2021, Job Recruiters Say -- Bloomberg
Oil traders flip from bearish to bullish as Israel weighs response to Iran's missile attack:
Top company news
Earnings/updates
GET.FP (Getlink) -- provides update on ElecLink issues
LSG.NO (Lerøy Seafood Group) -- Q3 trading update: total harvest volume of salmon and trout 51.4K GWT, ex volumes from Scottish Seafarms
CLAS.B.SS (Clas Ohlson) -- reports Sep sales (ex acquired Spares Group) +4% to SEK793M
BNOR.NO (BlueNord) -- reports prelim Q3 production 26.5 Mboe/d vs FactSet 28.1 Mboe/d
Also reporting today
Earnings: Beeks Financial Cloud Group (BKS.LN)
Trading Update: Repsol (REP.SM), Shell (SHEL.LN)
Production: Ferrexpo (FXPO.LN)
Traffic: SAS (SASQB), Fly Play (PLAY.IR)
M&A
LTM.AU (Arcadium Lithium), RIO.LN (Rio Tinto)
Arcadium Lithium confirms approach from Rio Tinto
Arcadium Lithium holder opposes takeover worth less than $8B (A$11.77B) - Australian Financial Review (
CFR.SW (Richemont) -- MYT Netherlands Parent B.V. and Richemont sign agreement for Mytheresa to acquire YOOX NET-A-PORTER in exchange for a 33% equity stake in Mytheresa
IG.IM (Italgas) -- announces that 2i Rete Gas has accepted the company's acquisition offer of ~$5.3B
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- CD&R, PAI revising offers for Opella - Bloomberg
RR.LN (Rolls-Royce Holdings) -- Czech government to buy into Rolls-Royce SMR consortium; terms undisclosed - Sunday Times
BVI.FP (Bureau Veritas)
agrees to sell its food testing business to Mérieux NutriSciences for €360M (Enterprise Value)
agrees to acquire IDP Group for an undisclosed sum
UNF (UniFirst) -- issues statement related to recent industry activity and Elis SA
TIT.IM (Telecom Italia) -- examines Sparkle purchase offer; board mandates CEO Pietro Labriola to initiate interlocutions on an exclusive basis with the bidders
HEI.GR (Heidelberg Materials) -- Adani Group in discussions to acquire Heidelberg's India cement business - Economic Times
FUTR.LN (Future Plc) -- Future considered breaking itself up in strategic review - Mail on Sunday
MUL.LN (Mulberry Group) -- founder: LVMH could buy company - Mail on Sunday
TFBANK.SS (TF Bank) -- enters into share purchase agreement regarding transfer of a majority stake in the subsidiary Rediem Capital AB
British Land, Land Securities "need to justify their existence" - Sunday Times
(NULL) Loscam owners now looking to sell only portion of business - The Australian
Healthcare
VICO.SS (Vicore Pharma Holding) -- rights issue through Pareto oversubscribed
Other
IG.IM (Italgas) -- to present 2024-2030 Strategic Plan pre-open tomorrow; conference call at 15:00 CET
TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp) -- could potentially cancel its multi-billion dollar flagship project to convert steel mills to green steel using hydrogen -- Handelsblatt
PTEC.LN (Playtech) -- Certain Playtech holders critical of executive bonus scheme linked to sale of Snaitech - FT
UniCredit and Nexi reach agreement on payments deal -- Corriere (6-Oct)
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $89.1M, +22.1% y/y - Box Office Mojo
Key rating changes
Upgrades
PNDX.B.SS (Pandox) -- Pandox long-term recommendation resumed outperform at Handelsbanken; prior rating was market perform
STERV.FH (Stora Enso) -- to overweight from underweight at Barclays
EXPN.LN (Experian) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Numis
ITRK.LN (Intertek Group) -- to hold from sell at Deutsche Numis
UBI.FP (Ubisoft) -- to market perform from underperform at Bernstein
CIE.SM (CIE Automotive) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
PIRC.IM (Pirelli & C.) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Downgrades
TPE.GR (PVA TePla) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
SMDS.LN (DS Smith) -- to underweight from equal weight at Barclays
Initiations
BANB.SW (Bachem Holding) -- hold at Deutsche Bank
Data
Nikkei +2.36% to 39547.69
Hang Seng +1.25% to 23021.66
Shanghai Composite +0.00% to 3336.50
S&P futures (8.5) vs prior close of 5800.0
€-$ +0.0001 or +0.01% to 1.0969
$-¥ (0.31) or (0.21%) to 148.41
€-¥ (0.35) or (0.21%) to 162.73
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