Oct 17 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open in positive territory amidst Asian equities mostly higher Thursday. Greater China markets gaining though property developers swinging lower following Housing Ministry press briefing. Japan equities lagging and Taiwan slightly weaker ahead of TSMC's earnings. ASX off best levels. S&P 500 futures touch lower afterhours. Bonds weaker with Australian curve bear flattening following hot jobs data. Treasury yields up 1-2 bp. Dollar weakest against Aussie, flat elsewhere. Crude rebounding with gold and copper little changed. Bitcoin seeing minor decline.
Focus on ECB interest rate decision at 14:15CET, with press conf at 14:45CET. Consensus expectations are for a cut of 25bps in the benchmark interest rate. Also, Turkey central bank interest rate decision dye at 12:00BST, with the benchmark interest rate expected to be left unchanged at 50%. ECB's McCaul speaks/participates at KPMG Cloud Conf. at 10:15CET and event organised by Oliver Wyman at 11:45. Norges Bank's Wolden Bache speech at 15:00CET at BI Norwegian Business School (livestream).
On today's agenda, there's EU Council (through Fri) participants include EP President Metsola. Also, informal meeting of EU trade ministers (through Fri), Norway's industry minister Myrseth begins trip to USA, the country's defense minister Gram among the participants at the NATO Defense Ministers' meeting (through Fri) and energy minister Aasland participating in Norway's Energy Days 2024. Elsewhere, Arctic Circle Assembly (through Sat), is the biggest network for international dialogue and co-operation on the future of the Arctic region. EU's Simson among the participants.
Macroeconomic releases include: Netherlands Sep unemployment rate, Switzerland Sep trade balance (and watch data), Eurozone Sep final CPI, Aug trade balance, Italy Aug trade balance
In corporate news, Nestle (NESN.SW) reports 9M revenue CHF67.15B vs consensus CHF67.60B and lowers FY 2024 outlook. The group also announces changes to its organization and its Executive board. Also in the DACH region, Schindler Holding (SCHN.SW) reports Q3 EPS CHF2.16 vs StreetAccount CHF2.06 and reiterates FY guidance. VAT Group (VACN.SW) reports Q3 revenue CHF209M, likely not comparable to FactSet CHF236.1M. ABB Limited (ABBN.SW) reports Q3 EPS $0.51 vs consensus $0.53 and for Q4 expects low to mid-single-digit comparable revenue growth and the historical pattern to repeat for a negative book-to-bill and a sequentially lower Operational EBITA margin
In France, Sartorius Stedim Biotech (DIM.FP) reports Q3 underlying EPS €0.76 vs FactSet €0.80 and confirms FY24 outlook. Gecina (GFC.FP) reports Q3 gross rental income €518.5M vs year-ago €496.9M. Pernod Ricard (RI.FP) reports Q1 revenue €2.78B vs StreetAccount €2.83B. Publicis Groupe (PUB.FP) reports Q3 revenue €3.42B vs consensus €3.43B; raises floor of its FY24 organic growth guidance. Out of the Nordics, Nokia (NOKIA.FH) reports Q3 comparable EPS €0.06 vs consensus €0.07 and keeps FY24 guidance unchanged
On M&A front, Schneider Electric (SU.FP) agreed to acquire a controlling interest in Motivair Corporation for an undisclosed sum. Also, Talgo (TLGO.SM) received a letter of expression of interest from the SIDENOR group stating that is considering the total or partial acquisition of the share capital of the company, confirming earlier press reports.
Politics/Macro/World News
ECB to cut, markets want clues on next move - Reuters
Meloni's migration meeting sets tone for fractious EU leaders' summit - FT
UK's Chancellor Rachel Reeves to raise capital gains tax on sale of shares - The Times
Biden's mission to soothe Germany's Trump angst - Politico
Netherlands Sep Unemployment Rate 3.7% vs consensus 4.0% and prior 3.7%
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
SRT3.GR (Sartorius) -- reports 9M EPS €3.01 vs year-ago €4.00; FY24 guidance confirmed
VACN.SW (VAT Group) -- reports Q3 revenue CHF209M, likely not comparable to FactSet CHF236.1M [4 est, CHF210.4-258M]
SCHN.SW (Schindler Holding) -- reports Q3 EPS CHF2.16 vs StreetAccount CHF2.06
NESN.SW (Nestle) -- reports 9M revenue CHF67.15B vs consensus CHF67.60B. Full-year 2024 outlook lowered
ABBN.SW (ABB Limited) -- reports Q3 EPS $0.51 vs consensus $0.53
HLE.GR (HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA) -- Forvia Hella reports preliminary 9M revenue €5.9M vs year-ago €5.9M
GFG.GR (Global Fashion Group) -- raises FY 2024 guidance based on strong profit improvements in Q3
HYQ.GR (Hypoport SE) -- reports Q3 total mortgage finance transaction volume on Europace €17.1B vs year-ago €13.6B
Nordics
NOKIA.FH (Nokia) -- reports Q3 comparable EPS €0.06 vs consensus €0.07; keeps FY24 guidance unchanged
TIETO.FH (Tietoevry) -- updates FY guidance and provides preliminary Q3 figures; expects adj. EBITA 12.3-12.7% vs prior guidance 12.0-13.0%
NDA.SE.SS (Nordea Bank) -- reports Q3 EPS €0.36 vs FactSet €0.35 [17 est, €0.30-0.37]
HNSA.SS (Hansa Biopharma) -- reports Q3 EPS (SEK1.53) vs FactSet (SEK2.42) [3 est, (SEK2.44)-(2.40)]
TIETO.FH (Tietoevry) -- updates FY guidance and provides preliminary Q3 figures; expects adj. EBITA 12.3-12.7% vs prior guidance 12.0-13.0%
France
ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris) -- reports Total Paris Aeroport Sep traffic 32.9M, +5.5% y/y
GFC.FP (Gecina) -- reports Q3 gross rental income €518.5M vs year-ago €496.9M
RI.FP (Pernod Ricard) -- reports Q1 revenue €2.78B vs StreetAccount €2.83B
GET.FP (Getlink) -- reports Q3 revenue €475M vs FactSet €462.0M [1 est]; reaffirms FY guidance
PUB.FP (Publicis Groupe)-- reports Q3 revenue €3.42B vs consensus €3.43B; raises floor of its FY24 organic growth guidance
M&A
AAL.LN (Anglo American) -- BHP CEO Mike Henry met South African government officials last week, stoking speculation the company will resurrect bid for Anglo American - FT
FER.SM (Ferrovial) -- forms a joint venture with Interogo Holding to manage its stakes in a set of concessions in Europe and Canada (post EU close 16-Oct)
EVD.GR (CTS Eventim) -- announces European Commission approval for exercising of call-option to acquire 17% of France Billet
IMCD.NA (IMCD) -- acquires Blumos Group; terms undisclosed
MF.FP (Wendel) -- completes the acquisition of 50% of Globeducate
TLGO.SM (Talgo) -- receives a letter of expression of interest from the SIDENOR group stating that is considering the total or partial acquisition of the share capital of the company
SQI.FP (SQLI SA) -- board issued a favorable reasoned opinion on the simplified public tender offer by DBAY Advisors at €54/share
SU.FP (Schneider Electric) -- agrees to acquire a controlling interest in Motivair Corporation for an undisclosed sum
Healthcare
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- announces updated US FLUBLOK iInfluenza vaccine) label
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- and LimmaTech awarded FDA fast track designation for Tetravalent shigella vaccine candidate S4V
BIOA.B.SS (BioArctic) -- Therapeutic Goods Administration will not register lecanemab (LEQEMBI) for treatment of patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment due to Alzheimer's disease and Mild Alzheimer's dementia
Other
BA.LN (BAE Systems) -- BAE Systems and Kongsberg sign teaming agreement for new platform situational awareness tool
ENR.GR (Siemens Energy) -- chair Joe Kaeser to seek re-election for second term - Handelsblatt, citing sources
NDA.SE.SS (Nordea Bank) -- to launch up to €250M buyback to run 21-Oct to no later than 28-Feb-25
Key rating changes
Upgrades
AKSO.NO (Aker Solutions) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
MOWI.NO (Mowi) -- Mowi short-term recommendation upgraded to buy from hold at Handelsbanken
Downgrades
MAERSK.B.DC (Maersk) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
NEL.NO (NEL ASA) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
SUBC.NO (Subsea 7) -- to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan
Initiations
ELE.SM (Endesa) -- hold at Jefferies
Other Actions
PUM.GR (Puma) -- transferred neutral at UBS; prior rating was neutral
INF.LN (Informa) -- resumed equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
Data
Nikkei (0.50%) to 38985.82
Hang Seng +0.54% to 20397.22
Shanghai Composite +0.07% to 3205.17
S&P futures (6.5) vs prior close of 5887.0
€-$ (0.0010) or (0.09%) to 1.0853
$-¥ (0.12) or (0.08%) to 149.52
€-¥ (0.25) or (0.15%) to 162.29
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