Oct 22 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity market closed mostly lower, but off worst levels of the session. Norway +0.3% bucks the lower trend and lead outperformers, whilst Greece (1.7%), Portugal (1.0%) and Switzerland (0.8%) lead underperformers. Utilities, Insurance and Telecom the biggest decliners. Technology, Basic Resources and Travel & Leisure relative outperformers.
Bond yield backup the widely cited overhang on sentiment. Move driven by several dynamics, including higher oil prices, concerns over expansive EU government budgets, market positioning ahead of US election and soft-/no-landing narrative traction that has been a big tailwind for stocks. Prospect of slower Fed rates alongside stronger Trump polling momentum and a renewed focus on fiscal outlook all acting as notable drag on risk.
Latest Bloomberg article noted how ECB officials increasingly concerned about the potential economic fallout from a possible Trump presidency, especially regarding his proposed tariffs. Meanwhile, recent Fedspeak has highlighted expectations for more modest rate cuts going forward. Attention in Europe on Italy is issuing 7- and 30-year bonds as it looks to benefit from Fitch Ratings' recent outlook upgrade. Some focus on latest data showing total European car sales in dropped by 6.1% y/y in September.
Focus in Europe on earnings, with heavyweight SAP posting Q3 numbers ahead of market expectations and FY guidance slightly increased. Other notable releases see Randstand (RAND.NA) Q3 org. growth, revenue, EBITA all beat. Tele2 (TEL2.B.SS) Q3 revenue, EBITDAaL missed; reiterated FY guidance. Saab (SAAB.B.SS) Q3 revenue, orders beat; reiterated FY guidance. Eurofins Scientific (ERF.FP) Q3 revenue missed; FY revenue outlook lowered, FCFF unchanged, adj EBITDA margin slight increase. Group also announced results of cash audit confirming FY23 cash balance and high integrity of its systems and controls; refutes Muddy Waters' allegations regarding transactions that occurred between 10 and 25 years ago. Logitech International (LOGN.SW) group reported better-than-expected Q2 EPS and operating income while Maersk (MAERSK.B.DC) reported preliminary Q3 numbers with group revenue and EBIT ahead and FY24 guidance also upgraded.
Light in M&A updates, Wendel (MF.FP) to acquire 75% of Monroe Capital. Mulberry Group (MUL.LN) board is unanimously of the view that Fraser's (FRAS.LN) offer is untenable and that the company should focus its attention on driving the commercial performance of the business.
In other notable updates, HSBC Holdings (HSBA.LN) named chief risk officer Pam Kaur as CFO with effect from 1-Jan-25 and altered organisational structure to accelerate delivery against its strategic priorities, also effective 1-Jan.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 21-Oct to 25-Oct attached), in another relative busy day for company earnings, Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR), Dws Group (DWS.GR), Temenos (TEMN.SW), Roche Holding (ROG.SW), u-blox Holding (UBXN.SW), DSV (DSV.DC), Societe BIC (BB.FP), Carrefour (CA.FP), Kering (KER.FP), Thales (HO.FP), Michelin (ML.FP), Air Liquide (AI.FP),Saipem (SPM.IM), Iberdrola (IBE.SM), Svenska Handelsbanken (SHB.A.SS), Swedbank (SWED.A.SS), SSAB (SSAB.B.SS), Heineken (HEIA.NA), WPP (WPP.LN), Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.LN), and Reckitt Benckiser Group (RKT.LN) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Eurozone Oct Flash Consumer Confidence.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Travel & Leisure +0.93%, Technology +0.85%, Basic Resources +0.77%, Energy+0.55%, Autos & Parts +0.52%, Banks +0.37%, Consumer Products and Services +0.22%, Retail (0.06%), Financial Svcs (0.17%),
Underperformers:
Utilities (1.59%), Insurance (1.31%), Telecom (0.98%), Real Estate (0.96%), Media (0.76%), Construct & Mtls (0.66%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.60%), Health Care (0.58%), Chemicals (0.55%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.36%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
Central Banks
EU
Parliament approves EU loan of up to €35B to Ukraine - Politico
UK
UK unions could seek bargaining rights with just 2% of workers as members - FT
UK economy 'set to accelerate', says IMF - BBC
Tax hikes could damage growth, IMF warns Reeves - The Telegraph
France
France Considers Legalizing, Taxing Online Casinos, Armand Says - Bloomberg
Germany
IMF forecast sees Germany still lagging behind in growth - Handelsblatt
First case of new variant in Germany - Handelsblatt
Italy
Parliament tries again to extend disaster policies to 2025 - Ansa
Spain
Spanish government faces pressure from hard left, throwing budget passage into question - Reuters
Greece
Attracting major investments - ekathimerini
Austria
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+19.4% MGNS.LN (Morgan Sindall Group £38.80, +6.30) -- FY trading update
+12.8% PINE.LN (Pinewood Technologies Group £3.27, +0.37) -- secures contract with Marshall Motor Group
+10.4% HFD.LN (Halfords Group £1.57, +0.15) -- H1 trading update
+10.2% INWI.SS (Inwido SEK195.80, +18.10) -- Q3 earnings
+8.4% SAAB.B.SS (Saab SEK238.40, +18.45) -- Q3 earnings
+6.0% GKP.LN (Gulf Keystone Petroleum £1.34, +0.08) -- Peel Hunt upgrade
+5.7% DNB.NO (DNB Bank NOK236.50, +12.70) -- Q3 earnings
+5.4% PON1V.FH (Ponsse €23.50, +1.20) -- Q3 earnings
+4.4% AUTN.SW (Autoneum Holding CHF122.20, +5.20) -- UBS upgrade
+4.4% MOLN.SW (Molecular Partners CHF5.95, +0.25) -- study results
+4.1% BRCK.LN (Brickability Group £0.63, +0.03) -- H1 trading update
+3.5% BAVA.DC (Bavarian Nordic A/S DKK223.50, +7.60) -- First case of new Mpox variant detected in Germany - Robert Koch Institute
+3.2% G4M.LN (Gear4music (Holdings) £1.77, +0.05) -- H1 trading update
+2.3% 8TRA.GR (TRATON €31.15, +0.70) -- prelim Q3 earnings
+2.3% SAP.GR (SAP €215.40, +4.75) -- Q3 earnings
+2.2% OHLA.SM (Obrascon Huarte Lain €0.30, +0.01) -- long-term financial structure strengthening; capital increase of up to €150M
+2.0% NONG.NO (SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge NOK117.74, +2.34) -- Q3 net profit
+2.0% RAND.NA (Randstad €44.00, +0.85) -- Q3 earnings; to acquire healthcare and care talent provider Zorgwerk in the Netherlands
Trading Lower:
-15.8% HTG.LN (Hunting £3.14, -0.59) -- Q3 trading update
-11.2% ERF.FP (Eurofins Scientific €47.73, -6.03) --
Q3 earnings
results of cash audit confirming FY23 cash balance and high integrity of its systems and controls
refutes Muddy Waters' allegations regarding transactions that occurred between 10 and 25 years ago
-10.6% FARN.LN (Faron Pharmaceuticals £1.86, -0.22) -- to present BEXMAB follow-up data at Capital Markets Day
-10.4% MTRS.SS (Munters Group SEK173.70, -20.10) -- Q3 earnings
-10.1% CAMX.SS (Camurus SEK586.50, -66.00) -- regulatory update on the US NDA for CAM2029 in acromegaly
-7.8% MUL.LN (Mulberry Group £1.18, -0.10) -- board is unanimously of the view that Fraser's offer is untenable and that the company should focus its attention on driving the commercial performance of the business
-6.1% NMAN.SS (Nederman Holding SEK240.50, -15.50) -- Q3 earnings
-6.0% LOGN.SW (Logitech International CHF72.20, -4.58) -- Q2 earnings
-4.9% LIFCO.B.SS (Lifco SEK313.60, -16.00) -- Q3 earnings
-4.5% TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp €3.26, -0.15) -- Carlyle drops out of bidding process for Thyssenkrupp marine unit -- Reuters
-4.0% WALL.B.SS (Wallenstam SEK53.10, -2.20) -- Q3 earnings
-3.2% FABG.SS (Fabege SEK86.00, -2.80) -- Q3 earnings
-3.1% SHOE.LN (Shoe Zone £1.55, -0.05) -- FY trading update
-3.0% KESKOB.FH (Kesko €17.91, -0.56) -- Inderes downgrade
-2.9% TEL2.B.SS (Tele2 SEK108.30, -3.25) -- Q3 earnings
-2.0% JM.SS (JM SEK189.30, -3.80) -- Q3 earnings
-2.0% SBRE.LN (Sabre Insurance Group £1.32, -0.03) -- 9M trading update
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Akzo Nobel (AKZA.NA)
DACHs: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR), Dws Group (DWS.GR), ATOSS Software (AOF.GR), Kuhne + Nagel International (KNIN.SW), Temenos (TEMN.SW)
Denmark: DSV (DSV.DC), Brodrene A&O Johansen (AOJ.B.DC), RingkjObing Landbobank (RILBA.DC)
Finland: Cargotec (CGCBV.FH), Atria (ATRAV.FH), WithSecure Corp. (WITH.FH)
France: Societe BIC (BB.FP), Amplitude Surgical (AMPLI.FP), Bastide Le Confort Medical (BLC.FP), OVH Groupe (OVH.FP), La Francaise de l'Energie (FDE.FP)
Iceland: Islandsbanki (ISB.IR), Icelandair Group (ICEAIR.IR)
Norway: Storebrand (SYB.NO), Smartoptics Group (SMOP.NO), Itera (ITERA.NO), Kitron (KIT.NO)
Southern Europe: Saipem (SPM.IM), Iberdrola (IBE.SM), Viscofan (VIS.SM), Global Dominion Access (DOM.SM)
Sweden: Svenska Handelsbanken (SHB.A.SS), Swedbank (SWED.A.SS), SSAB (SSAB.B.SS), Assa Abloy (ASSA.B.SS), Atlas Copco (ATCO.A.SS), Husqvarna (HUSQ.B.SS), Volvo Car (VOLCAR.B.SS), Intrum (INTRUM.SS), MAG Interactive (MAGI.SS), HEBA Fastighets (HEBA.B.SS), Biotage (BIOT.SS), B3 Consulting Group (B3.SS), Ework Group (EWRK.SS), Nyfosa (NYF.SS), Stillfront Group (SF.SS), Tobii Dynavox (DYVOX.SS), Swedencare (SECARE.SS), AddLife (ALIF.B.SS), Thule Group (THULE.SS), Lime Technologies (LIME.SS), Bilia (BILI.A.SS), Rottneros (RROS.SS), VEF (VEFAB.SS), Dometic Group (DOM.SS), Midsona (MSON.B.SS), OX2 (OX2.SS), Humana (HUM.SS), C-RAD (CRAD.B.SS), Studsvik (SVIK.SS), VBG Group (VBG.B.SS), Bergman & Beving (BERG.B.SS)
Trading Update/Sales:
Benelux: Heineken (HEIA.NA), Allfunds Group (ALLFG.NA)
DACHs: Roche Holding (ROG.SW), u-blox Holding (UBXN.SW), Rieter Holding (RIEN.SW), EMS-Chemie Holding (EMSN.SW)
France: Carrefour (CA.FP), Kering (KER.FP), Thales (HO.FP), Michelin (ML.FP), Air Liquide (AI.FP), Voltalia (VLTSA.FP), Groupe Crit (CEN.FP), Klepierre (LI.FP), Bureau Veritas (BVI.FP), Clariane (CLARI.FP), Planisware (PLNW.FP), Mersen (MRN.FP), Infotel (INF.FP), Exail Technologies (EXA.FP), Synergie (SDG.FP), Linedata Services (LIN.FP), Believe (BLV.FP)
UK: WPP (WPP.LN), Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.LN), Reckitt Benckiser Group (RKT.LN), Barratt Developments (BDEV.LN), PensionBee Group (PBEE.LN), Ecora Resources (ECOR.LN)
CMD/Events: Givaudan (GIVN.SW), Kinnevik (KINV.B.SS), Avantium (AVTX.NA)
Data:
Economics:
Finland Sep Unemployment Rate 8.1% vs consensus 7.5% and prior 7.5%
IOBE publishes its latest economic forecasts: The Greek Economy 3/2024 - release
Markets:
WTI Crude (Nov 24): +$1.78 or +2.52% to $72.34
€-$ (0.0002) or (0.02%) to 1.0814
£-$ (0.0007) or (0.05%) to 1.2978
€-£ +0.0002 to 0.8332
S&P 500 (0.24%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +7.41%
DAX: +15.94%
CAC: (0.11%)
MIB: +14.48%
Stoxx 600: +8.65%
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE