Oct 22 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open mixed amidst Asian equities mixed Tuesday. Gains on Chinese markets contrasting with weakness in Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Australia. S&P 500 futures down slightly afterhours.
Bond markets under pressure as Fed rate cut expectations continue to be wound back after latest Fedspeak favored slower pace of rate cuts. Yield backup also corresponding with Trump polling momentum ahead of election. Latter dynamic attributed for renewed strength in dollar (DXY up ~3% in October to highest since early August), particularly against Asian FX and currencies most exposed to tariffs.
On today's agenda BRICS summit (through Thu) Russia will reportedly hold the summit in Kazan. It will be the first summit with an expanded membership. Turkey's potential membership may be discussed. UK parliamentary committee hear from Government Chief Scientific Adviser (10:15BST) whilst other topics include The Grey Belt (10:45). Chancellor Scholz speech at 9:35CET at the Confederation of German Employers' Assn (BDA) and in the afternoon hosts Emir of Qatar. Institute for Government event at 13:00BST title How can the government effectively roll out EV charging infrastructure? IOBE publishes latest Quarterly Report on the Greek Economy. Germany's Ministry of Finance releases latest monthly report. Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology (IEE) to present the Energy Transition Barometer. German Geothermal Assn Congress (through Thu). Bloomberg Tech in London. After the European markets close, the US Fed releases latest Beige Book
In central banks, Bundesbank's Balz speech at 7:30CET at Sibos 2024 Beijing (Mon-Thu), ECB's McCaul speech at 13:30CET at SCION Day 2024 and Bundesbank's Nagel, Germany's finance minister Lindner press conf at 14:30CET at Annual meeting of IMF and World Bank. Also, BOE's Greene fireside chat at 14:15BST at event organised by the Atlantic Council, Bank of Portugal's Centeno speech (livestream) at 15:00CET at Macro Week 2024, hosted by Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) and Bundesbank's Nagel lecture at 15:15CET at event at Harvard Univ. Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum speakers include Netherland's central bank's Knot at 15:05CET, BOE's Bailey speech 14:25BST, Austria central bank's Holzmann panellist 15:45CET, ECB's McCaul 22:15CET, Bank of Italy's Perrazzelli, Turkey central bank's Karahan panellists at 22:55CET. ECB's Lagarde in conversation at 16:00CET with Francine Lacqua, Bloomberg. ECB's Lane in fireside chat at 17:00CET at Central Banking Seminar of Federal Reserve Bank of New York and speaks at 22:00CET at seminar organised by Columbia Univ. Bank of Finland's Rehn speech (livestream) at 20:00CET at Macro Week 2024, hosted by PIIE. Bank of France's Villeroy speaks at 19:00CET at NYU/Stern . BOE's Breeden panellist at 20:15BST at event organised by G20, other panellists include Bank of Italy's Panetta, ECB's Lagarde.
Macroeconomic releases today include: UK Sep PSBR, Finland Sep Unemployment Rate
Earnings season gets underway with SAP (SAP.GR) and Logitech International (LOGN.SW) reporting Q3/Q2 earnings yesterday after the close and adjusting their FY24 guidance. Also, in DACHs, Tecan Group (TECN.SW) issued a presentation ahead of its CMD today reaffirming its mid-term financial outlook. In Nordics, Maersk (MAERSK.B.DC), Tele2 (TEL2.B.DC), Gjensidige Forsikring (GSF.NO), Vår Energi (VAR.NO), DNB Group (DNB.NO), Boliden (BOL.SS) and Saab (SAAB.B.SS) issued Q3 updates.
In France, Eurofins Scientific (ERF.FP) reported Q3 revenue and detailed its objectives for 2024 to 2027. In The Netherlands, Randstad (RAND.NA) reported Q3 earnings and issued guidance for Q4. Other notable companies due to report today includes Deutsche Borse (DB1.GR), Kuhne + Nagel International (KNIN.SW), Enagas (ENG.SM), InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG.LN), Gear4music (Holdings) (G4M.LN), L'Oreal (OR.FP), Vivendi (VIV.FP), and Pierre & Vacances (VAC.FP).
Politics/Macro/World News
Bank of England chief economist criticises statistics agency over poor jobs data - FT
Hunt warns Reeves against hiking business taxes - FT
Cross-party MPs urge Reeves to impose 2% tax on wealth above £10m - The Guardian
Europe Braces for Risk of Another Trump-Led Economy - Bloomberg
Finland Sep Unemployment Rate 8.1% vs consensus 7.5% and prior 7.5%
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
SAP.GR (SAP) -- reports Q3 EPS €1.23 ex-items vs FactSet €1.21 [18 est, €1.10-1.47], raises guidance
LOGN.SW (Logitech International) -- reports Q2 non-GAAP EPS $1.20 vs StreetAccount $1.03
8TRA.GR (TRATON) -- SE reports preliminary operating result for Q3 2024; full-year outlook unchanged
B4B.GR (METRO) -- reports preliminary Q4 revenue €8.0B vs FactSet €8.33B [1 est]
HUBN.SW (HUBER+SUHNER) -- reports 9M net sales CHF665.2M vs year-ago CHF666.3M
TECN.SW (Tecan Group) -- reaffirms its mid-term financial outlook - CMD
Nordics
MAERSK.B.DC (Maersk) -- reports preliminary Q3 revenue $15.80B vs FactSet $14.85B [11 est, $13.87-15.95B]; upgrades FY24 guidance
EMBLA.DC (Embla Medical hf) -- reports Q3 net income $22M vs FactSet $18.6M [4 est, $17.3-19.7M]
TEL2.B.SS (Tele2) -- reports Q3 adjusted net income SEK1.39B vs consensus SEK1.11B
ACTI.SS (Active Biotech) -- reports Q3 EPS (SEK0.02) vs year-ago (SEK0.04)
RATO.B.SS (Ratos) -- reports Q3 EPS SEK0.40 ex-items vs FactSet SEK0.39 [4 est, SEK0.36-0.40]
LIFCO.B.SS (Lifco) -- reports Q3 EPS SEK1.64 vs FactSet SEK2.25 [2 est, SEK2.22-2.28]
BRAV.SS (Bravida Holding) -- reports Q3 EPS SEK0.96 vs FactSet SEK0.96 [2 est, SEK0.95-0.96]
SAAB.B.SS (Saab) -- reports Q3 EPS SEK1.79 vs FactSet SEK1.61 [5 est, SEK1.50-1.76]; reiterates FY outlook
VPLAY.A.SS (Viaplay Group) -- reports Q3 EPS (SEK0.03) vs year-ago (SEK8.85)
MTRS.SS (Munters Group) -- reports Q3 EPS SEK1.44 vs FactSet SEK1.88 [4 est, SEK1.62-2.32]
FABG.SS (Fabege) -- reports Q3 profit from property management SEK353M, (14%) vs year-ago SEK410M
INWI.SS (Inwido) -- reports Q3 EPS SEK3.22 vs FactSet SEK3.06 [3 est, SEK3.03-3.11]
BOL.SS (Boliden) -- reports Q3 EPS SEK8.34 vs FactSet SEK6.10 [9 est, SEK4.26-8.10]
EQV1V.FH (eQ) -- reports Q3 EPS €0.18 vs FactSet €0.19 [2 est, €0.19-0.19]
GIGA.NO (Gigante Salmon) -- reports Q3 net income (NOK1.1M) vs year-ago (NOK652K)
TOM.NO (Tomra Systems) -- reports Q3 EPS €0.07 vs FactSet €0.09 [8 est, €0.05-0.16]
GJF.NO (Gjensidige Forsikring) -- reports Q3 EPS NOK3.32 vs FactSet NOK3.04 [11 est, NOK2.60-3.42]
VAR.NO (Vår Energi) -- reports Q3 EPS $0.07 vs FactSet $0.07 [8 est, $0.06-0.09]
BWE.NO (BW Energy) -- issues Q3 update, net production 2.4M bbls
DNB.NO (DNB Group) -- reports Q3 EPS NOK7.83 vs consensus NOK6.70
PEN.NO (Panoro Energy) -- updates on Dussafu operations: Q3 gross oil production averaged ~27,465 bopd
Benelux
RAND.NA (Randstad) -- reports Q3 underlying EPS €0.70 vs consensus €0.73
France
ITP.FP (Interparfums) -- reports Q3 revenue €257.6M vs FactSet €245.5M [2 est, €236-255M]
ERF.FP (Eurofins Scientific) -- reports Q3 revenue €1.72B vs FactSet €1.77B [2 est, €1.77-1.77B]
Also due to report today includes:
Earnings:
DACHs: Deutsche Borse (DB1.GR), Kuhne + Nagel International (KNIN.SW)
Finland: Purmo Group (PURMO.FH), Siili Solutions (SILLA.FH), Innofactor (IFA1V.FH), Ponsse (PON1V.FH)
France: Verallia (VLRA.FP)
Norway: Atea (ATEA.NO)
Southern Europe: Enagas (ENG.SM)
Sweden: JM (JM.SS), Wallenstam (WALL.B.SS), Probi (PROB.SS), Nederman Holding (NMAN.SS), BioGaia (BIOG.B.SS), Alleima (ALLEI.SS), Bulten (BULTEN.SS)
UK: Virgin Wines UK (VINO.LN)
Trading Update/Sales:
DACHs: flatexDEGIRO (FTK.GR)
France: L'Oreal (OR.FP), Vivendi (VIV.FP), Pierre & Vacances (VAC.FP),Covivio (COV.FP), Tikehau Capital (TKO.FP), Haulotte Group (PIG.FP), Roche Bobois (RBO.FP), ID Logistics Group (IDL.FP), Interparfums (ITP.FP)
UK: InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG.LN), Gear4music (Holdings) (G4M.LN), Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.LN), Petra Diamonds (PDL.LN)
CMD/Events: EQT (EQT.SS), Faron Pharmaceuticals (FARN.LN)
M&A
C2PU.SP (Parkway Life REIT) -- to acquire 11 nursing homes in France for €111.2M (~SG$159.M)
IDS.LN (International Distribution Services) -- subsidiary General Logistics Systems to acquire 20% of the shares in ACS Postal Services SMSA
KIND.SS (Kindred Group) -- La Francaise des Jeux holds 98.60% of share capital of Kindred
MF.FP (Wendel) -- to acquire majority stake in Monroe Capital - Bloomberg
CABP.LN (CAB Payments Holdings) -- StoneX notes certain disclosure requirements which may be applicable with prior announcement by CAB Payments
C2PU.SP (Parkway Life REIT) -- launches private placement at SG$3.80-3.88 per New Unit to raise gross proceeds of no less than ~SG$180.0M
LBIRD.FP (Lumibird) -- reports Q3 revenue €43.5M, +4% vs year-ago €41.8M; acquires Continuum nanosecond laser product line from Amplitude Laser Group
Unipol Gruppo shareholders approve the merger by incorporation into Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. of UnipolSai Assicurazioni S.p.A.
First Advantage and Sterling announce election deadline for Sterling stockholders to elect merger consideration
Healthcare
LONN.SW (Lonza Group) -- Lonza extends collaboration with major pharmaceutical partner for integrated commercial supply of antibody-drug conjugates
UCB.BB (UCB) -- announces Bepranemab Phase 2a study results have been accepted for late-breaking presentation at Clinical Trials on Alzheimer's Disease (CTAD) 2024 Meeting
MOLN.SW (Molecular Partners) -- and Orano Med present additional positive preclinical data supporting DLL3 Targeting Radio-DARP in MP0712 at EANM 2024
MOLN.SW (Molecular Partners) -- and Orano Med Strengthen agreement to Co-Develop 212Pb-Based Radio-DARPin Therapeutics
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- to present on Chikungunya at several leading scientific conferences
IVA.FP (Inventiva) -- SEC filing: SC 13D/A (Filed by New Enterprise Associates 17, L.P.)
IVA.FP (Inventiva) -- SEC filing: SC 13D/A (Filed by BIOTECHNOLOGY VALUE FUND L P)
CAMX.SS (Camurus) -- provides regulatory update on the US NDA for CAM2029 in acromegaly
Other
QDT.FP (Quadient) -- secures new c.$1M contract with U.S. Federal Agency
HSBA.LN (HSBC Holdings) -- names chief risk officer Pam Kaur CFO
AENA.SM (Aena S.M.E.) -- Aena announces airlines schedule +5.6% y/y increase of seats for winter season
EVK.GR (Evonik Industries) -- announces European Food Safety Authority confirms safety of silica as food additive
INW.IM (Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane) -- completes €300M buyback plan
European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) September new passenger car registrations for EU + EFTA + UK (4.2%) y/y
Key rating changes
Upgrades
AZE.BB (Azelis Group) -- to buy from hold at HSBC
SPM.IM (Saipem) -- to buy from hold at Stifel
Downgrades
INGA.NA (ING Groep) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
BOO.LN (boohoo Group) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
Initiations
VONN.SW (Vontobel Holding) -- outperform at Oddo
Data
Nikkei (1.23%) to 38476.48
Hang Seng +0.16% to 20511.17
Shanghai Composite +0.25% to 3276.32
S&P futures (10.8) vs prior close of 5896.3
€-$ +0.0007 or +0.06% to 1.0823
$-¥ (0.03) or (0.02%) to 150.82
€-¥ +0.08 or +0.05% to 163.20
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