Oct 25 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets generally closed higher, with pan-European indices having reversed initial slight falls to trade marginally higher on the day, before ending little changed on the day
The flurry of earnings updates and as well as Germany, Italy and UK confidence data were in focus
Greece (0.9%), Denmark (0.3%) and Ireland, Spain (0.2%) joined the FTSE100 and CAC in ending the day lower, leading underperformers, whilst Austria +1.0%, Norway +0.9% were the outliers to the upside and lead outperformers
Economic data included sentiment among companies in Germany has improved the ifo Business Climate Index showed, it's first increase after four decreases in a row.. In UK, long-running consumer confidence Index fell one point to (21) in Oct, with three measures declined and two rising vs Sep's announcement. Also, in Italy, business and consumer confidence worsened m/m and in France, in Oct, household confidence fell slightly m/m.
In central banks, ECB's latest consumer survey revealed continued decline in inflation expectations, with consumers anticipating +2.4% price growth over the next 12 months, down from +2.7% in August and reaching the lowest level since Sep-21 (Bloomberg). Meanwhile, ECB members Wunsch, Müller and Makhlouf played down prospect of 50bps cut in December in different statements
Amongst the region's leading companies with earnings/updates were Moving to the upside were NatWest Group (NWG.LN) Q3 Attributable Profit £1.17B vs consensus £990M, Svenska Cellulosa, Holcim (HOLN.SW) reports Q3 recurring EBIT CHF1.67B vs StreetAccount CHF1.75B, reaffirms FY outlook and Eni (ENI.IM) Q3 adjusted net profit €1.30B vs FactSet €1.14B; 2024 buyback increased by €0.4B to €2B. The company is also exploring with SERI Industrial (SERI.IM) the possibility of setting up a JV company to build a stationary energy storage production plant. Remy Cointreau (RCO.FP) reports Q2 revenue €316.7M vs consensus €318.4M, lowers FY guidance, reversed early falls. Trading lower are Electrolux, Accor, Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG.GR) Q3 EPS €1.81 vs FactSet €1.87 [5 est, €1.68-2.03], provided Q4 and FY guidance and Wendel (MF.FP) net asset value as of 30-Sep €184.5/share.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Basic Resources +1.80%, Oil & Gas +1.00%, Technology +0.30%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.21%, Autos & Parts +0.16%, Media +0.15%, Chemicals +0.11%, Retail +0.08%
Underperformers:
Travel & Leisure (1.52%), Insurance (0.75%), Construct & Mtls (0.52%), Utilities (0.44%), Real Estate (0.37%), Banks (0.35%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.25%), Financial Svcs (0.24%), Food & Beverage (0.21%), Health Care (0.06%), Telecom (0.05%)
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Central Banks:
France:
Barnier and Macron on collision course over fixing France's finances - Politico
Netherlands:
Dutch government averts collapse after Geert Wilders backs down - FT
Norway:
Norway, the EU, the Faroe Islands, Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom agree on total quota for mackerel for 2025 - release
Sweden:
Government has adopted a new strategy for Sweden's global development cooperation on migration, returns and voluntary repatriation - release
UK:
Labour's first budget in 14 years attempts to fund spending boost via tax hikes - Reuters
Study claims UK tax raid on private equity could raise £1B - FT
Reform UK MP Lee Anderson says former European Commission President Romano Prodi's prediction that UK will rejoin the EU in 15 years, is way off the mark - Express
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+37.5% NYR.BB (Nyrstar) -- Update with regards to the Mechelen criminal investigation
+10.0% LIGHT.NA (Signify) -- Q3 net income €106M vs consensus €79M; proposes new CFO
+8.7% CLA.B.SS (Cloetta) -- Q3 EPS SEK0.45 vs FactSet SEK0.45 [1 est]
+8.3% PEAB.B.SS (Peab) -- Q3 EPS SEK2.59 vs FactSet SEK2.04 [3 est, SEK1.97-2.10]
+8.1% SCA.B.SS (Svenska Cellulosa) -- Q3 EPS SEK1.52 vs FactSet SEK1.37 [9 est, SEK1.24-1.51]
+7.6% SIGHT.FP (GenSight Biologics) -- reports cash position as of 30-Sep-24 and provides business update
+7.6% VID.SM (Vidrala) -- Q3 net income €37.5M vs FactSet €38.2M [5 est, €37-41M]
+7.1% LAGR.B.SS (Lagercrantz Group) -- Q2 net income SEK293M vs FactSet SEK225.0M [4 est, SEK222-230.9M]
+6.8% NOLA.B.SS (Nolato) -- Q3 EPS SEK0.61 vs FactSet SEK0.60 [4 est, SEK0.59-0.61]
+6.7% RLF.SW (RELIEF THERAPEUTICS Holding) -- new study results for RLF-OD032 and files provisional patents
+6.7% SCHA.NO (Schibsted) -- Q3 EPS continuing ops NOK21.52 vs year-ago NOK6.12
+6.6% TIMA.GR (ZEAL Network) -- preliminary 9M EBITDA €35.0M vs year-ago €23.2M
+5.9% ADDT.B.SS (Addtech) -- short-term recommendation upgraded to buy from hold at Handelsbanken
+5.8% PROX.BB (Proximus)
Q3 EPS €0.25 vs consensus €0.23; raises FY underlying Group EBITDA growth guidance
Sells its datacenter business to Datacenter United for an enterprise value of €128M
+5.2% MTU.FP (Manitou BF) -- Q3 revenue €593M, (10%) y/y
+4.8% NELLY.SS (Nelly Group) -- Q3 EPS SEK0.74 vs year-ago SEK0.30
+4.6% NXI.FP (Nexity) -- Q3 revenue €890M, (3%) vs year-ago €915M; Outlook unchanged
+4.0% MOLN.SW (Molecular Partners) -- $20.0M-ADS offering priced at $5.49/ADS
+3.7% BALD.B.SS (Fastighets Balder) -- Q3 EPS SEK0.90 ex-items vs FactSet SEK1.35 [3 est, SEK1.30-1.40]
+3.4% EPI.A.SS (Epiroc) -- Q3 EPS SEK1.92 vs FactSet SEK1.91 [15 est, SEK1.27-2.27]
+3.2% TTALO.FH (Terveystalo) -- Q3 EPS €0.12 vs FactSet €0.09 [5 est, €0.06-0.11]
+2.2% NCC.B.SS (NCC) -- Q3 EPS SEK4.83 vs FactSet SEK4.50 [4 est, SEK3.62-5.02]
On earnings/updates: SAN.FP (Sanofi), EPRO.B.SS (Electrolux Professional), INDT.SS (Indutrade), COFB.BB (Cofinimmo), ENI.IM (Eni), WHA.NA (Wereldhave), URW.FP (Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield), HOLN.SW (Holcim), SK.FP (SEB), NWG.LN (NatWest Group), CAST.SS (Castellum), CATE.SS (Catena) and reversing initial falls KIND.SS (Kindred Group), RCO.FP (Remy Cointreau), CTT.SS (CTT Systems)
Notable Decliners
-40.2% BETCO.SS (Better Collective) -- Lowers FY24 guidance; expects FY EBITDA €100-110M vs prior guidance €130-140M and FactSet €130.1M
-15.2% ANOT.SS (Anoto Group) -- resolves on SEK15M directed issue, a SEK50M rights issue and a set-off issue of SEK21M
-14.5% ELUX.B.SS (Electrolux) -- Q3 EPS (SEK0.87) vs StreetAccount SEK0.20; comments on planned divestment of non-core assets
-12.0% INSTAL.SS (Instalco) -- Q3 EPS SEK0.32 vs FactSet SEK0.43 [3 est, SEK0.40-0.46]
-11.8% NAS.NO (Norwegian Air Shuttle) -- Q3 net income NOK2.00B vs FactSet NOK1.98B [4 est, NOK1.65-2.19B]; guides FY EBIT (inc Widerøe) NOK 2.1-2.4B vs prior NOK 2.1-2.6B and FactSet NOK2.36B
-10.1% GBT.FP (Guerbet) -- 9M revenue €620.5M, +8% vs year-ago €573.9M
-9.9% NLFSK.DC (Nilfisk Holding) -- preliminary Q3 organic growth (0.8%)
-8.1% XFAB.FP (X-FAB Silicon Foundries) -- Q3 net income $26.0M vs FactSet $17.9M [2 est, $16.3-19.5M]
-7.7% ATE.FP (Alten) -- 9M revenue €3.12B, +3% vs year-ago €3.04B
-6.0% MIPS.SS (MIPS) -- downgraded to hold from buy at SEB
-5.4% KCR.FH (Konecranes) -- Q3 EPS €1.27 vs FactSet €1.20 [7 est, €1.14-1.29]
-5.3% ORNBV.FH (Orion) -- terminates ODM-111 development program due to narrow therapeutic window of the molecule
-5.0% AAF.LN (Airtel Africa) -- Q2 EPS $0.03 ex-items vs FactSet $0.03 [1 est]
-4.3% SGSN.SW (SGS) -- Q3 revenue CHF1.70B vs consensus CHF1.70B
-3.9% BION.SW (BB Biotech) -- 9M net income CHF16M vs year-ago (CHF316M)
-3.6% SBS.GR (Stratec) -- final Q3 EPS €0.22 ex-items vs FactSet €0.38 [1 est]; 9M results inline with prelim. release
-3.6% FII.FP (Lisi) -- Q3 revenue €419.2M vs FactSet €436.0M [1 est]
-2.6% ORY.SM (Oryzon Genomics) -- Q3 net income (€2.3M) vs FactSet (€1.1M) [1 est], issues corporate update
-2.3% AC.FP (Accor) -- Q3 revenue €1.43B vs StreetAccount €1.39B; RevPAR +5.3% vs StreetAccount +5.7%; tweaks up FY Group EBITDA guidance; downgraded to neutral from buy at CIC Market Solutions
-2.1% SAVE.SS (Nordnet) -- Q3 Adj. EPS SEK2.70 vs FactSet SEK2.74 [6 est, SEK2.67-2.82]
On earnings/updates: MBG.GR (Mercedes-Benz Group), KEMIRA.FH (Kemira), GRNG.SS (Gränges), BEIA.B.SS (Beijer Alma), BOL.FP (Bolloré), MF.FP (Wendel), CGM.FP (Cegedim), MERY.FP (Mercialys), ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris), NVG.PL (The Navigator Co.), PACT.SS (Proact IT Group)
EU companies reporting Monday:
Earnings:
Benelux: Royal Philips (PHIA.NA), Royal KPN (KPN.NA)
DACHs: TRATON (8TRA.GR), Wacker Chemie (WCH.GR), BAWAG Group (BG.AV), Palfinger (PAL.AV)
Nordics: Fagerhult Group (FAG.SS), Balco Group (BALCO.SS), Oma Saastopankki (OMASP.FH)
Southern Europe: Galp Energia (GALP.PL), Aquafil (ECNL.IM), Iberpapel Gestion (IBG.SM)
UK: Bioventix Plc (BVXP.LN)
Trading Update: Computacenter (CCC.LN), VusionGroup (VU.FP), OPmobility (OPM.FP), Exosens (EXENS.FP), Nacon (NACON.FP)
Data:
Economics:
Denmark Sep retail sales +0.5% y/y vs consensus 0.0%, prior revised +2.9% from +3.1%
Sweden Sep PPI (2.3%) vs prior +1.2%
France Oct consumer confidence 94 vs consensus 94, prior 95
Spain
Q3 unemployment rate 11.2% vs consensus 11.2%, prior 11.3%
Sep PPI (5.2%) y/y vs prior (1.3%)
Germany Oct IFO
Business climate 86.5 vs consensus 85.6, prior 85.4
Current conditions 85.7 vs consensus 84.4, prior 84.4
Expectations 87.3 vs consensus 86.8, prior revised 86.4 from 86.3
Italy Oct
Business confidence 85.8 vs consensus 87.0, prior revised 86.6 from 86.7
Consumer confidence 97.4 vs consensus 98.5, prior 98.3
UK Oct GfK consumer confidence (21) vs consensus (21), prior (20) - release
Markets:
WTI Crude (Dec 24): +$1.59 or +2.27% to $71.78
€-$ (0.0015) or (0.14%) to 1.0813
£-$ (0.0000) or (0.00%) to 1.2977
€-£ (0.0012) to 0.8332
S&P 500 +0.49%
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +6.67%
DAX: +16.19%
CAC: (0.61%)
MIB: +14.58%
Stoxx 600: +8.31%
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