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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.06% to 8030.33, DAX (0.16%) to 19003.11, CAC40 (0.14%) to 7216.83, STOXX 600 (0.13%) to 501.59

Nov 13 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets closed mostly lower, extending previous session losses. Autos & Parts, Real Estate and Technology the biggest decliners. Oil & Gas, Insurance and Consumer Products and Services the best performers. Denmark and Italy +0.3% lead outperformers, whilst Austria (0.9%) and Greece (0.8%) lead underperformers.

    • Biggest story is Treasury rally following in line October core US CPI print. Market now pricing in a bit better odds of a December Fed rate cut after the report given expectations of another hotter print, with ~30% chance of a pause in December, down from 41% yesterday. Also follows hawkish repricing around Fed rate cut path recently as inflation has reemerged as a key Fed focus over "last mile" concerns, Trump policy proposals. However, some downplaying Fed signaling from the report given one more CPI print ahead of December FOMC decision. Bulls still focused on combination of seasonality, buybacks, FOMO/animal spirits and positive macro surprise momentum. Bears focused on rate pressure (hotter growth, stickier inflation, Trump policies), stronger dollar, less aggressive Fed and stretched valuations and positioning.

    • In Europe, risk aversion from prior session continues amid ongoing concerns over the impact of Trump policies on the European economy and the inflation outlook. Bond yield backup also getting some attention. No change in broader narrative however. Recent dynamic seems to have reinforced the likelihood of more active ECB easing, while the BoE outlook remains cautious. Latest batch of ECB comments support December easing, though outlook thereafter uncertain given US policy outlook. BoE's Mann maintained hawkish credentials and argued to lean against risks inflation is higher than expected.

    • Quiet macro calendar in Europe. French unemployment rate edged up in Q3, as expected. Bank of France sees flat Q4 growth. S&P Global's business outlook survey shows sentiment among most of the main European economies deteriorating. German President Steinmeier agreed to timetable for new election, which will see confidence vote on 16-Dec and election on 23-Feb. CDU frontrunner Merz signaled willingness to reform fiscal policy for higher borrowing. Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari said he is not yet seeing a lot of upside inflation risks and he's not ready to say inflation is stuck above 2% target

    • On a busy corporate front, in UK, Experian (EXPN.LN) interim benchmark EPS beat and raises FY25 margin outlook; Flutter Entertainment (FLTR.LN) hiked FY guidance following ex-US Q3 revenue growth; Babcock International Group (BAB.LN) H1 underlying EPS beat; Scottish and Southern Energy (SSE.LN) H1 EPS also beat and announces CEO will retire in 2025. Out of the DACHS, Siemens Energy (ENR.GR) hiked mid-term outlook citing record order book, rising demand for power equipment and turnaround at wind turbine unit; RWE (RWE.GR) 9M adjusted net income beat; slightly improves earnings expectations for 2024; Porsche Automobil Holding SE (PAH3.GR) 9M net income miss by a wide margin; Volkswagen Group (VOW3.GR) invests further $800M in Rivian JV gaining access to software technology. Allianz (ALV.GR) Q3 core net income beat on lower claims from natural catastrophes; FY24 operating profit now seen in upper half of target range.

    • In the M&A news, Just Eat Takeaway.com (TKWY.NA) confirmed earlier rumours as it agrees to sell Grubhub Inc. to Wonder Group, Inc. (not listed) for an EV of $650M. In Germany, Reuters reported that Commerzbank (CBK.GR) is considering the acquisition of Hamburg Commercial Bank (formerly HSH Nordbank) or Oldenburgische Landesbank as a defence plan against a possible UniCredit (UCG.IM) offer.

    • Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 11-Nov to 15-Nov attached), in another relative busy day for company earnings, Flughafen Wien (FLU.AV), Siemens (SIE.GR), Deutsche Telekom (DTE.GR), E.ON (EOAN.GR), Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.GR), Merck (MRK.GR), Hamburger Hafen und Logistik (HHFA.GR), K+S (SDF.GR), Swiss Re (SREN.SW), Montana Aerospace (AERO.SW)ENAV (ENAV.IM), Fincantieri (FCT.IM), Leroy Seafood Group (LSG.NO), Embracer Group (EMBRAC.B.SS), Burberry Group (BRBY.LN), United Utilities Group (UU.LN) and Assura (AGR.LN) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include UK Q3 preliminary GDP, Sep manufacturing/industrial production, trade balance, construction output, Oct monthly GDP tracker - NIESR, Spain Oct final CPI, Eurozone Q3 (2nd estimate) GDP, Sep industrial production, Sweden Oct final CPI, Finland Q3 preliminary GDP, Oct CPI, Netherlands Q3 preliminary GDP.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Energy+1.26%, Consumer Products and Services +0.18%, Insurance +0.18%, Health Care +0.08%, Utilities +0.02%, Basic Resources (0.06%), Banks (0.07%),

      • Underperformers:

        • Real Estate (1.37%), Technology (1.16%), Autos & Parts (1.12%), Financial Svcs (0.74%), Construct & Mtls (0.54%), Chemicals (0.49%), Media (0.47%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.36%), Retail (0.34%), Travel & Leisure (0.27%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.27%), Telecom (0.26%),

    • Macro/Peripheral markets:

      • Geopolitics

        • US strikes facility of 'Iranian-backed group' in Syria - Baha

        • US 'likely' to pledge new climate target, says White House - Politico

        • Trump expected to 'soon' appoint a Ukrainian peace envoy after promises of negotiating end to war with Russia - Fox news

      • Central Banks

        • BoE's Mann warns inflation risks remain high - Baha

        • ECB's Villeroy: Trump's economic agenda risks global economy, return of inflation - Reuters

      • EU

        • It's not like EU-US relations can get any worse under Trump, says former Commission chief Juncker - Politico

        • EU, Mercosur eye early December trade deal - to France's dismay - Politico

        • European farmers kick off protests against EU-Mercosur trade deal - Reuters

      • UK

        • Council tax bills to go up by more than £100 next year, No 10 confirms - The Telegraph

        • Reeves accused of 'direct attack' on the 'lifeblood of Britain's economy' - The Telegraph

        • Reeves seeks reform of UK consumer redress in financial services sector - FT

        • UK Officials Warn Government of Hurdles Facing Trump Trade Deal - Bloomberg

      • France

        • French Grid Says Export Curbs to End Soon, Resume From March - Bloomberg

      • Germany

        • Buba's Nagel: Trump's tariffs could cost Germany - Baha

        • Scholz Advisers Slash German Growth Forecast for Next Year - Bloomberg

        • Merz Opens Door to Reform Germany's Strict Borrowing Limits - Bloomberg

      • Italy

        • Italian president tells Musk to quit meddling in Italy's domestic politics - Reuters

    • Company news:

      • Trading Higher:

        • +68.1% ACTI.SS (Active Biotech SEK0.28, +0.11) -- receives notice of allowance for laquinimod in eye disorders in the US

        • +30.7% LNDR.IM (Landi Renzo €1.72, +0.40) -- capital increase update

        • +21.3% RIVN (Rivian $12.81, +2.26) -- and Volkswagen Group announce the launch of their joint venture

        • +18.2% ENR.GR (Siemens Energy €45.97, +7.08) -- reports Q4 EPS (€0.34) vs FactSet (€0.20) [6 est, (€0.50)-0.28]

        • +15.9% TKWY.NA (Just Eat Takeaway.com €13.09, +1.79) -- Follow-up: Just Eat Takeaway.com enters into definitive agreement to sell Grubhub Inc. to Wonder Group, Inc. for an enterprise value of $650M

        • +13.9% SIGHT.FP (GenSight Biologics €0.35, +0.04) -- submits updated regulatory file for LUMEVOQ gene therapy

        • +12.5% AG1.AV (Auto1 Group €10.00, +1.12) -- reports Q3 adjusted EBITDA €34.3M vs year-ago €0.5M; raises FY gross profit and adj. EBITDA guidance

        • +10.6% SMIN.LN (Smiths Group £16.82, +1.61) -- Q1 trading update: organic revenue growth on comparable basis +13.1%; now expects FY organic revenue growth of +5-7% vs prior guidance for +4-6%; resumes share buyback by initiating second tranche

        • +7.2% SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding CHF7.12, +0.48) -- discussions with interested parties regarding a potential going-private transaction are ongoing

        • +7.2% SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding CHF7.12, +0.48) -- reports final Q3 earnings inline with preliminary release; confident in achieving recently revised FY guidance

        • +6.7% FLTR.LN (Flutter Entertainment £205.50, +13.00) -- reports Q3 EPS $0.43 ex-items vs FactSet ($0.26) [5 est, ($0.96)-0.45]

        • +6.7% RWE.GR (RWE €32.13, +2.03) -- reports 9M adjusted net income €1.64B vs consensus €1.56B; slightly improves earnings expectations for 2024; share buyback program with volume of up to €1.5B

        • +6.5% DWL.LN (Dowlais Group Plc £0.51, +0.03) -- 10 month trading update; performance in line and full year outlook unchanged

        • +5.8% CGS.LN (Castings £2.94, +0.16) -- earnings

        • +5.7% SBX.NO (Seabird Exploration NOK5.39, +0.29) -- earnings

        • +5.1% HLUN.B.DC (H. Lundbeck DKK45.42, +2.22) -- reports Q3 adj EPS DKK1.30 vs consensus DKK1.28; raises lower end of its FY24 guidance range

        • +4.9% G2MNO.NO (Gentoo Media NOK24.40, +1.15) -- earnings

        • +4.4% NEX.FP (Nexans €119.00, +5.00) -- unveils new strategic and financial ambitions for the next four years; targets ROCE above 20% by 2028 - CMD

        • +4.3% PBB.GR (Deutsche Pfandbriefbank €5.19, +0.21) -- reports Q3 net income €37M vs year-ago €8M

        • +4.1% KOG.NO (Kongsberg Gruppen NOK1,234.00, +49.00) -- contract award

        • +3.7% BAB.LN (Babcock International Group £5.17, +0.18) -- reports H1 underlying EPS 23.5p vs FactSet 20.0p [2 est, 19.9-20.0p]

        • +3.1% FNAC.FP (Fnac Darty €26.65, +0.80) -- Fnac Darty and Ruby announces final result of the reopening of the tender period for UniEuro in line with preliminary result

        • +2.9% 2020.NO (2020 Bulkers NOK142.70, +4.00) -- earnings

        • +2.7% VOD.LN (Vodafone Group £0.69, +0.02) -- Swisscom offers second set of remedies to Italy's antitrust authority to win approval for acquisition of Vodafone Italia - Reuters

        • +2.2% DATA.LN (GlobalData £2.07, +0.04) -- announces an update on trading and strategic progress: The group continues to trade in line with FY24 expectations

        • +2.0% EUZ.GR (Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen- und Medizintechnik €39.60, +0.76) -- collaboration and licence agreement for Actinium-225

      • Trading Lower:

        • -38.8% KTA.GR (Knaus Tabbert €12.02, -7.62) -- stops production until the end of the year; lowers revenue guidance for the full year 2024

        • -31.5% PKTM.SW (PIERER Mobility CHF7.77, -3.57) -- discloses additional liquidity requirements at KTM AG

        • -20.3% ZAP.NO (Zaptec NOK9.40, -2.40) -- earnings

        • -13.0% RRTL.GR (RTL Group €24.45, -3.65) -- reports 9M revenue €4.21B vs year-ago €4.24B; weak German outlook weighs on FY guidance

        • -11.2% BGBIO.NO (BerGenBio NOK6.45, -0.81) -- reports Q3 EPS (NOK0.63) vs FactSet (NOK1.34) [1 est]

        • -8.9% STG.DC (Scandinavian Tobacco Group DKK94.20, -9.20) -- reports Q3 EPS DKK4.10 ex-items vs FactSet DKK4.30 [1 est]

        • -8.3% YUBICO.SS (Yubico SEK247.50, -22.50) -- reports Q3 EPS SEK0.91 vs year-ago (SEK1.34)

        • -7.2% PAH3.GR (Porsche Automobil Holding SE €34.00, -2.64) -- reports 9M net income €2.51B, (34%) vs year-ago €3.80B

        • -6.1% ICG.LN (Intermediate Capital Group £21.04, -1.36) -- reports H1 EPS 57.6p vs FactSet 81.9p [2 est, 78.7-85.0p]

        • -5.9% HDD.GR (Heidelberger Druckmaschinen €0.93, -0.06) -- reports Q2 net income €7M vs FactSet €8.8M [2 est, €7.4-10.2M]; anticipates a very strong H2

        • -5.5% RANA.NO (Rana Gruber NOK76.30, -4.40) -- earnings

        • -4.8% SVITZR.DC (Svitzer Group DKK231.10, -11.65) -- earnings

        • -4.3% IPH.FP (Innate Pharma €1.63, -0.07) -- reports 9M revenue €10.2M vs year-ago €36.5M

        • -4.1% VOE.AV (Voestalpine €18.23, -0.77) -- reports H1 net income €183M, (43%) vs year-ago €321M

        • -3.9% ATYM.LN (Atalaya Mining £3.44, -0.14) -- earnings

        • -3.6% BDT.GR (Bertrandt €16.10, -0.60) -- reports restructuring and impairment to affect preliminary figures for Q4 and FY 2023/24; provides preliminary Q4 EBIT (€113M) vs FactSet (€25.1M) [2 est, (€46)-(4.1M)]

        • -3.0% IMCD.NA (IMCD €142.95, -4.35) -- placing

        • -3.0% TEG.GR (TAG Immobilien €15.09, -0.47) -- reports 9M FFO I €0.74 vs year-ago €0.76; reaffirms 2024 guidance, issues initial guidance for 2025

        • -3.0% ELON.SS (Elon AB SEK25.60, -0.80) -- earnings

        • -2.8% PHO.NO (PhotoCure NOK52.80, -1.50) -- reports Q3 net income (NOK3.5M) vs FactSet (NOK6.7M) [3 est, (NOK8.8)-(5.2M)]; reiterates 2024 financial guidance

        • -2.8% EXPN.LN (Experian £37.51, -1.08) -- reports H1 benchmark EPS $76.0c vs consensus $74.3c; raises FY25 margin outlook

        • -2.6% AGL.LN (ANGLE £0.10, -0.00) -- presents two posters at EACR

        • -2.6% MING.NO (SpareBank 1 SMN NOK162.64, -4.34) -- placing

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • Austria: Flughafen Wien (FLU.AV), DO & CO (DOC.AV)

        • Benelux: Agfa-Gevaert (AGFB.BB)

        • Denmark: ALK-Abello (ALK.B.DC), NKT (NKT.DC), MT Hojgaard Holding (MTHH.DC), Bioporto (BIOPOR.DC)

        • France: SCOR (SCR.FP)

        • Germany: Siemens (SIE.GR), Deutsche Telekom (DTE.GR), E.ON (EOAN.GR), Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.GR), Merck (MRK.GR), Hamburger Hafen und Logistik (HHFA.GR), K+S (SDF.GR), Bilfinger (GBF.GR), ProSiebenSat.1 Media (PSM.GR), Nagarro (NA9.GR), Talanx (TLX.GR), Wacker Neuson (WAC.GR), GRENKE (GLJ.GR), Eckert & Ziegler (EUZ.GR), Grand City Properties (GYC.GR), MLP (MLP.GR), Dermapharm Holding (DMP.GR), Einhell Germany (EIN.GR), CEWE Stiftung & Co. (CWC.GR), Deutsche EuroShop (DEQ.GR), JOST Werke (JST.GR), PATRIZIA (PAT.GR), Energiekontor (EKT.GR), MBB (MBB.GR), Friedrich Vorwerk Group (VH2.GR), GFT Technologies (GFT.GR), SMA Solar Technology (S92.GR), ProCredit Holding (PCZ.GR), adesso (ADN1.GR), BayWa (BYW6.GR), Novem Group (NVM.GR), JDC Group (JDC.GR), Allgeier (AEIN.GR), Aumann (AAG.GR), H&R (2HRA.GR), Multitude (E4I.GR)

        • Greece: Hellenic Telecommunications Organization (HTO.GA), HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings (ELPE.GA)

        • Italy: ENAV (ENAV.IM), Fincantieri (FCT.IM), GVS (GVS.IM), Reply (REY.IM), Interpump Group (IP.IM), Acea (ACE.IM), ERG (ERG.IM), Moltiply Group (MOL.IM), El.En. (ELN.IM), MARR (MARR.IM), Cembre (CMB.IM), IVS Group (IVS.IM), EuroGroup Laminations (EGLA.IM), TXT e-solutions (TXT.IM), Cairo Communication (CAI.IM), Aeroporto Guglielmo Marconi di Bologna (ADB.IM), Unieuro (UNIR.IM), Orsero (ORS.IM), Italian Exhibition Group (IEG.IM), FNM (FNM.IM)

        • Norway: Leroy Seafood Group (LSG.NO), Austevoll Seafood (AUSS.NO), Norbit (NORBT.NO), Nekkar (NKR.NO)

        • Portugal: Redes Energeticas Nacionais (RENE.PL)

        • Spain: Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles (CAF.SM)

        • Sweden: Embracer Group (EMBRAC.B.SS), BioArctic (BIOA.B.SS), Surgical Science Sweden (SUS.SS), Smart Eye (SEYE.SS), CTEK (CTEK.SS)

        • Switzerland: Swiss Re (SREN.SW), Montana Aerospace (AERO.SW), Orascom Development Holding (ODHN.SW)

        • UK: Burberry Group (BRBY.LN), United Utilities Group (UU.LN), Assura (AGR.LN), 3i Group (III.LN), B&M European Value Retail (BME.LN), QinetiQ Group (QQ.LN), WH Smith (SMWH.LN), Premier Foods (PFD.LN), Great Portland Estates (GPE.LN), Young & Co.'s Brewery (YNGA.LN), Fuller, Smith & Turner (FSTA.LN), ActiveOps (AOM.LN)

      • Trading Update:

        • Benelux: CVC Capital Partners (CVC.NA), SBM Offshore (SBMO.NA), DEME Group (DEME.BB), EVS Broadcast Equipment (EVS.BB), Unifiedpost Group (UPG.BB)

        • DACHs: Swiss Life Holding (SLHN.SW), STRABAG (STR.AV), PharmaSGP Holding (PSG.GR)

        • Southern Europe: Acciona (ANA.SM), Corporación Acciona Energías Renovables (ANE.SM), Geox (GEO.IM)

        • UK: Aviva (AV.LN), Keller Group (KLR.LN)

      • Traffic: Flughafen Wien AG (FLU.AV)

      • CMD/events: ASML Holding (ASML.NA), Thales (HO.FP), Volvo (VOLV.B.SS), Inficon Holding (IFCN.SW), Inchcape (INCH.LN), Alleima (ALLEI.SS), Casino, Guichard-Perrachon (CO.FP)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • France Q3 Unemployment Rate 7.4% vs consensus 7.4% and prior 7.3%

      • Portugal Oct CPI +2.3% y/y vs preliminary +2.3%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Dec 24): +$0.28 or +0.41% to $68.40

      • €-$ (0.0051) or (0.48%) to 1.0573

      • £-$ (0.0030) or (0.23%) to 1.2718

      • €-£ (0.0021) to 0.8314

      • S&P 500 +0.23%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +3.84%

        • DAX: +13.44%

        • CAC: (4.33%)

        • MIB: +11.06%

        • Stoxx 600: +4.72%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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