Nov 14 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open mixed amidst Asian equities trading also mixed Thursday. Hang Seng continuing its recent declines, mainland markets also sharply lower today following yesterday's reprieve. Japan's markets turning red following a positive open. More losses for Taiwan, South Korea flat. India down again, Southeast Asia also lower. Positive returns for Australia and Singapore. US futures now negative after being higher early on. US dollar higher again; yen, yuan, AUD and other Asia currencies all under pressure although several central banks said to be intervening to support local currencies. Treasury yields higher across tenors, JGB yields higher, CGB yields finding a base. Crude oil under pressure, precious metals led lower by silver under USD strength, iron ore and copper leading base metals lower.
On today's agenda, in central banks, Norges Bank's Bech-Moen speech at 8:00 at Nordea in London whilst Bundesbank's Mauderer speech at 8:20CET at event at COP29 (NGFS Finance Day, Australian Prudential Regulation Authority), at 10:30CET (DZ Bank event) and panellist (NGFS Finance Day) at 16:00CET. ECB's de Guindos remarks at 9:30CET at event hosted by ABC and Deloitte in Madrid. BOE's Mann speech at 13:00BST at Society of Professional Economists Annual Conf. ECB's Schnabel panellist at 19:30CET at 25th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conf. ECB's Lagarde remarks at 20:00CET at Choiseul Sovereignty Awards 2024 ceremony. Riksbank's latest Financial Stability Report published at 9:30CET followed by press conf at 11:00. ECB publishes at 13:30CET minutes of last MPC meeting. IEA Oil Market Report. In Germany, Bundestag Budget Committee reconciliation meeting on the 2025 budget. In UK, Chancellor's Mansion House speech; Reeves is set to unveil long-awaited pension reforms; other speakers include BOE's Bailey at 21:00GMT. Summit of the heads of state and government of Latin America, Spain and Portugal, gets underway. APEC CEO Summit (through Fri)
Macroeconomic updates include: UK Q3 preliminary GDP, Sep manufacturing/industrial production, trade balance, construction output, Oct monthly GDP tracker - NIESR, Spain Oct final CPI, Eurozone Q3 (2nd estimate) GDP, Sep industrial production, Sweden Oct final CPI, Finland Q3 preliminary GDP, Oct CPI, Netherlands Q3 preliminary GDP.
In corporate news, DACHs region companies kicked off the session with results out from EOAN.GR (E.ON SE), Deutsche Telekom (DTE.GR), Siemens (SIE.GR), Merck KGaA (MRK.GR), Bilfinger (GBF.GR) and K+S AG (SDF.GR). In the Benelux, ASML (ASML.NA) confirms potential 2030 scenarios for annual revenue between ~€44B and €60B with gross margin of between ~56% and 60% ahead of its CMD.
In France, Alstom (ALO.FP) reports H1 adjusted net income €224M vs consensus €213M whilst Eiffage (FGR.FP) released Q3 revenue €5.89B vs StreetAccount €5.78B and confirmed FY outlook. Also, Thales (HO.FP) sets new financial targets with EBIT margin improvement to 13-14% in 2028 ahead of its CMD. Out of the Nordics, Embracer Group (EMBRAC.B.SS) reports Q2 adj EPS SEK0.17 vs FactSet SEK0.62 and now expects lower FY24/25 earnings y/y. ALK-Abello (ALK.B.DC) reports Q3 EPS DKK1.00 vs FactSet DKK0.79 and confirms FY guidance.
Politics/Macro/World News
Why the EU's biometric border won't come before spring 2025 - FT
European wind companies brace for potential challenges under Trump's second term - Reuters
Trump's power plays overshadow global climate summit - Politico
Germany tells its ports to reject Russian gas cargoes - FT
Finland Oct CPI +1.1% y/y vs consensus +1.1% and prior +0.8%
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
EOAN.GR (E.ON SE) -- reports 9M adjusted net income €2.21B vs StreetAccount €2.21B; confirms FY guidance
S92.GR (SMA Solar Technology) -- reports 9M EPS €1.00 vs year-ago €5.20
guides FY24 EBIT (€100M)-(€50M) vs prior guidance €20-85M and FactSet €46.0M [4 est, €31-59M]
SRAIL.SW (Stadler Rail) -- Stadler adjusts guidance; notes impact from severe weather disasters
GYC.GR (Grand City Properties) -- reports 9M FFO €0.82 vs year-ago €0.82
WAC.GR (Wacker Neuson) -- reports Q3 EPS €0.14 vs FactSet €0.22 [1 est]; guidance 2024 trimmed due to persistent economic downturn
CWC.GR (CEWE Stiftung & Co) -- reports Q3 pretax income (€0.1M) vs year-ago €0.7M; confirms FY outlook
SLHN.SW (Swiss Life Holding) -- reports 9M Gross Written Premiums & fees CHF15.88B vs consensus CHF15.80B
DTE.GR (Deutsche Telekom) -- reports Q3 adjusted net income €2.34B vs consensus €2.40B; raises FY Adjusted EBITDA AL guidance to €43.0B vs prior €42.9B
STR.AV (STRABAG SE) -- 9M trading statement: reports output volume €13.62B and order backlog +4% y/y; raises net investments outlook
SIE.GR (Siemens AG) -- reports Q4 EPS pre-PPA €2.57 vs consensus €2.49; guides FY25
GFF.GR (Bilfinger) -- reports Q3 adjusted EPS €1.39 vs FactSet €1.23 [2 est, €1.22-1.24]; FY24 free cash flow forecast increased
SFG.GR (K+S AG) -- reports Q3 adj EPS (€0.24) vs consensus (€0.23); FY24 EBITDA now expected at ~€540M, closer to lower end of the previous range
MRK.GR (Merck KGaA) -- reports Q3 EPS pre one-time items €2.30 vs consensus €2.29
Benelux
ASML.NA (ASML Holding) -- ASML confirms potential 2030 scenarios for annual revenue between ~€44B and €60B with gross margin of between ~56% and 60%? -- CMD
DEME.BB (DEME Group) -- reports 9M revenue €2.99B, +32% vs year-ago €2.28B
Southern Europe
TIT.IM (Telecom Italia) -- reports Q3 EBITDA (organic) €1.11B vs FactSet €1.05B [3 est, €946-1.11B]
APPS.SM (Applus Services) -- reports 9M Trading Update: operating income €189.0M ex-items, +14% vs year-ago €165.9M; reaffirms FY guidance
France
ALO.FP (Alstom) -- reports H1 adjusted net income €224M vs consensus €213M
FGR.FP (Eiffage) -- reports Q3 revenue €5.89B vs StreetAccount €5.78B; confirms FY outlook
PHXM.FP (Phaxiam Therapeutics) -- issues Q3 financial information: cash and cash equivalents as of 30-Sep €5.7M vs 30-Jun €1.5M
HO.FP (Thales) -- sets new financial targets; EBIT margin improvement to 13-14% in 2028 - CMD
UK
BOO.LN (boohoo Group) -- reports full H1 earnings: EPS (2.0p) vs FactSet (2.9p) [2 est, (2.9)-(2.9p)]
Nordics
SHLF.NO (Shelf Drilling) -- reports Q3 net income $67.5M, +65% vs year-ago $40.9M
issues Nov fleet status report
BETCO.SS (Better Collective) -- reports Q3 EPS €0.01 vs FactSet €0.10 [2 est, €0.09-0.10]
LSG.NO (Lerøy Seafood Group) -- reports Q3 EPS NOK0.62 vs FactSet NOK0.53 [9 est, NOK0.40-0.63]
AUSS.NO (Austevoll Seafood) -- reports Q3 adjusted EPS NOK2.70 vs FactSet NOK2.21 [7 est, NOK1.53-2.76]
EMBRAC.B.SS (Embracer Group) -- reports Q2 adj EPS SEK0.17 vs FactSet SEK0.62 [9 est, SEK0.52-0.73]; now expects lower FY24/25 earnings y/y
ALK.B.DC (ALK-Abello) -- reports Q3 EPS DKK1.00 vs FactSet DKK0.79 [3 est, DKK0.70-0.90]; confirms FY guidance
M&A
BARC.LN (Barclays) -- in talks with Brookfield to sell majority stake in merchant acquiring unit - Sky News
EMBRAC.B.SS (Embracer Group) -- to divest Easybrain to Miniclip for consideration of $1.2B (SEK12.9B) on cash and debt free basis
SHEL.LN (Shell Plc) -- Shell looking to sell part of portfolio of nature-based carbon projects - Bloomberg
SGO.FP (Compagnie de Saint-Gobain) -- weighs €2.5B sale of auto glass unit -- Bloomberg, citing sources
VOLCAR.B.SS (Volvo Car) -- Zeekr planning to acquire up to 51% stake in Lynk & Co - Reuters
BMPS.IM (Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena) -- Italy's Treasury to cut stake in Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena - Reuters
Banco BPM acquires a 5% stake in Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena as part of placing by Ministry of Economy and Finance
Anima purchases 3% of the share capital of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena as part of placing by Ministry of Economy and Finance
Healthcare
GSK.LN (GSK Plc) -- GSK highlights key data from hepatology portfolio at the AASLD's The Liver Meeting 2024
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- announces first participant has been vaccinated in Phase 2b controlled human infection model study of Shigella4V2
GUBRA.DC (Gubra A/S) -- announces positive results from single ascending dose phase 1 clinical trial with long-acting amylin analogue GUBamy
Other
SU.FP (Schneider Electric) -- announces early repayment on 15-Nov-24, of the sustainability-linked senior unsecured bonds convertible into new shares and/or exchangeable for existing shares (OCEANEs) due 15-Jun-26
OMV.AV (OMV) -- successfully receives arbitral award in relation to its German gas supplies from Gazprom Export
FHZN.SW (Flughafen Zuerich) -- notes Swiss Federal Council has decided to introduce roll-over mechanism
BOO.LN (boohoo Group) -- announces proposed conditional fundraise of up to ~ £39.3M
GAM.SW (Gam Holding) -- announces rights take-up and number of shares sold in its rights offering
ADN1.GR (adesso) -- announces CFO Jörg Schroeder to leave Executive board; appoints Michael Knopp as his successor in 2025
Key rating changes
Upgrades
DOCS.LN (Dr. Martens) -- to neutral from sell at Goldman Sachs
GN.DC (GN Store Nord) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
JEN.GR (Jenoptik) -- to buy from add at Baader Helvea
UPM.FH (UPM-Kymmene) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
Downgrades
VWS.DC (Vestas Wind Systems) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
CABK.SM (CaixaBank) -- to reduce from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
RRTL.GR (RTL Group) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
Initiations
CCEP.LN (Coca-Cola Europacific Partners) -- buy at Deutsche Numis
Other Actions
ZIL2.GR (Elringklinger) -- transferred hold at Deutsche Bank; prior rating was hold
Data
Nikkei (0.43%) to 38555.34
Hang Seng (1.80%) to 19466.99
Shanghai Composite (1.27%) to 3395.77
S&P futures (6.8) vs prior close of 6016.0
€-$ (0.0015) or (0.14%) to 1.0551
$-¥ +0.37 or +0.24% to 155.86
€-¥ +0.20 or +0.12% to 164.44
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