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StreetAccount Summary - European Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.79% to 8149.27, DAX +0.74% to 19146.17, CAC40 +0.21% to 7213.32, STOXX 600 +0.41% to 502.54

Nov 21 ,2024

• Synopsis:

  • Pan-European indices closed around the best levels of the session having reversed early trading. By the end of the session the vast majority of country benchmarks were higher on the day, having reversed initial falls.

  • Greece and Netherlands both +0.9%, Norway +0.8% join the FTSE100 in leading outperformers. Denmark (1.6%) and Ireland (0.4%) bucked the firmer trend and lead underperformers

  • There was a lot of central bank news flow. Bundesbank's Nagel interview in Die Zeit, title "Inflation is a greedy beast". In an interview on Bloomberg tv, Bank of Greece's Stournaras states the ECB should cut at every meeting till the key rate reaches 2%.

  • ECB's Patsalides says approach to rate cuts must be gradual, if Dec projections confirm baseline, there will be room to cut rates. ECB's Cipollone introductory remarks at the tenth meeting of the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures. Other speakers included Bank of France's Villeroy sppke at Paris Europlus Financial Forum 2024, ECB's Buch spoke at CEBRA International Finance and Macroeconomics conf., ECB's Lane spoke at research conf organised by Netherlands central bank, Knot gad earlier made opening remarks and ECB's Elderson spoke at the Univ. of Cyprus.

  • SNB's Tschudin and Moser due to speak at 18:30CET at Money Market Event.

  • Norges Bank published its latest expectation survey and Bundesbank publishes 2024 Financial Stability Review

  • UK's OBR released its latest commentary on the public sector finances and Germany's Ministry of Finance releases its latest monthly report.

  • Amongst the handful of economic data releases UK's Oct public sector net borrowing was worse than expected, as was Eurozone Nov flash consumer confidence. France Nov business survey improved more than expected whilst Norway Q3 GDP unexpected fell q/q, though there was an upward revision to the prior quarter

  • EU trade ministers' meeting as well as EU's von der Leyen speech at the Trilateral Business Forum and EU's Reynders participates in the European Business Summit. In UK, there's MPs question on transport at earlier, whilst Sec. of State at Ministry of Defence was before a committee. Norway's defence minister Gram attends NORDEFCO - consists of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, meeting in Copenhagen

  • M&A news flow included BBVA (BBVA.SM) presenting measures to CNMC in order to facilitate prompt authorization for combination with Banco Sabadell (SAB.SM)

  • Amongst company earnings/updates were trading higher, Jet2, Julius Baer Group, MFE-MEDIAFOREUROPE, UNIQA Insurance Group and Zurich Insurance Group and reversing initial falls Novartis, the company having upgraded mid-term sales guidance to +6% CAGR 2023-28 and +5% 2024-29 at its CMD and Close Brothers Group. Moving in the opposite direction were CMC Markets, CTS Eventim and JD Sports Fashion.

• Digest:

  • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

    • Outperformers:

      • Insurance +1.50%, Oil & Gas +1.22%, Technology +1.09%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.85%, Financial Svcs +0.80%

    • Underperformers:

      • Telecom (0.43%), Food & Beverage (0.39%), Real Estate (0.24%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.12%), Utilities (0.11%), Basic Resources (0.03%), Health Care +0.01%, Autos & Parts +0.02%, Construct & Mtls +0.14%, Chemicals +0.19%, Travel & Leisure +0.19%, Banks +0.19%, Media +0.30%, Retail +0.35%

  • Macro/Peripheral markets:

    • Geopolitics:

      • Russia to potentially target US missile defense base in Poland - Baha

      • Russia is ready to consider any 'realistic' Ukraine peace initiative, says Foreign Ministry - Reuters

      • Kyiv claims Russia launched intercontinental ballistic missile - The Guardian

    • EU:

      • How the European parliament reached a deal on the new commission - FT; Reuters ; Guardian; Politico

    • Belgium:

      • Bart De Wever hopes to restore confidence and then press the accelerator on government formation talks - De Tijd

    • France:

      • Will France have a government at Christmas? - Le Monde

      • Le Pen threatens to bring down French government over budget - FT

    • Greece:

      • SYRIZA Party defections leads to Socialist PASOK becoming main opposition - ekathimerini

    • Ireland:

      • Fianna Fail leader Micheál Martin rules out Aontu as a potential coalition partner - RTE

    • UK:

      • Public sector pay rises fuel jump in borrowing - The Telegraph, BBC

  • Company news:

    • Notable Gainers

      • +29.4% BGBIO.NO (BerGenBio) -- appoints Olav Hellebø as CEO, effective 21-Nov

      • +10.3% STX.LN (Shield Therapeutics) -- on track to meet FY revenue covenant target and market expectations

      • +9.4% CHRT.LN (Cohort) -- acquires EM Solutions from Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS.AU) for A$144M (enterprise value) part funded by share issue

        • places ~4.6M new shares at 875p/share through Investec Bank

      • +9.2% ITH.LN (Ithaca Energy) -- 9M adj net income $181.9M vs year-ago $332.1M, reaffirms FY24 guidance ranges, announces special dividend

      • +7.5% SOI.FP (SOITEC) -- H1 net income €14M vs FactSet €21M [2 est, €17-25M], confirms FY25 revenue and EBITDA guidance; announces Frédéric Lissalde to succeed Christophe Gégout as Chairman

      • +5.7% HLMA.LN (Halma) -- H1 adjusted EPS 43.0p vs consensus 41.8p, says well placed to deliver existing guidance for FY25

      • +4.7% GRI.LN (Grainger) -- FY EPS 4.2p vs year-ago 3.5p

      • +4.7% BAER.SW (Julius Baer Group) -- AuM at CHF 480B, + 12% y/y, vs StreetAccount CHF476.4B; expects FY24 IFRS net profit will significantly exceed one achieved in FY23; new CEO Stefan Bollinger to start on 9-Jan-25

      • +5.8% JET2.LN (Jet2) -- H1 net income £592.9M vs FactSet £524M [1 est], on track to deliver FY Group adjusted profit tax income ahead of market expectations

      • +4.9% D6H.GR (Datagroup) -- preliminary FY EBIT €45.8M vs prior guidance €43-46M and FactSet €45.0M [6 est, €43-52M]

      • +3.7% BOO.LN (boohoo Group) -- appoints Tim Morris as Chairman with immediate effect; Frasers Group (FRAS.LN) requisitioned a further shareholder meeting yo remove director

      • +3.6% GIMB.BB (Gimv) -- H1 NAVPS €55.6; Preparing for a capital increase

      • +3.1% ZURN.SW (Zurich Insurance Group) -- on track to exceed all of its 2023-25 targets one year ahead of schedule

      • +3.0% BANB.SW (Bachem Holding) -- reaffirms 2024 and 2026 guidance - CMD; shares reversed initial falls

      • +3.0% SOFF.NO (Solstad Offshore) -- announces a contract award with an undisclosed client for Normand Maximus

      • +2.7% KOG.NO (Kongsberg Gruppen) -- signs NOK 12B contract for NASAMS and NOMADS deliveries to the Netherlands

      • +2.7% BREE.LN (Breedon Group) -- Expects to deliver FY24 underlying EBIT in-line with market consensus

      • +2.6% LOGN.SW (Logitech International) -- neutral from sell at UBS

      • +2.5% ACX.SM (Acerinox) -- completes the acquisition of Haynes International (HAYN) for $798.7M

      • +2.5% RBT.FP (Robertet) -- DSM-Firmenich (DSFIR.NA) divests remaining ~1% stake; terms undisclosed

      • +1.8% OPAP.GA (Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics) -- Q3 adjusted net income €126.2M vs FactSet €110.3M

      • +1.8% PZC.LN (PZ Cussons) -- Trading has been in line with expectations and consistent with the FY25 outlook and guidance

      • +1.7% MFEB.IM (MFE-MEDIAFOREUROPE) -- 9M net income €96.2M, +35% vs year-ago €71.0M

      • +1.4% UQA.AV (UNIQA Insurance Group) -- 9M net income €264M vs year-ago €248M; to sell all of it's shareholding in SIGAL UNIQA Group Austria to Avni Ponari

      • +1.3%% CBG.LN (Close Brothers Group)

        • robust performance delivered in Q1, maintains previously communicated FY25

        • UK's FCA proposes to extend the time firms have to handle complaints relating to motor finance commission

      • +1.3% EXN.FP (Exclusive Networks) -- CD&R and Permira announce they have obtained all regulatory approvals to complete proposed acquisition of Exclusive Networks

        • On earnings/updates: IBAB.BB (Ion Beam Applications), SUBC.NO (Subsea 7), INVP.LN (Investec) and reversing initial falls NOVN.SW (Novartis)

    • Notable Decliners

      • -15.3% JD.LN (JD Sports Fashion) -- Now expects FY PBT to be at the lower end of original guidance range of £955-1.035B

      • -12.9% CLCO.NO (Cool Co.) -- Q3 net income $8.1M vs FactSet $21.3M

      • -12.1% CMCX.LN (CMC Markets) -- H1 EPS 12.8p vs year-ago (0.8p); Remain confident in delivering on FY guidance

      • -10.8% ELIOR.FP (Elior Group) -- initiated buy at TP ICAP Midcap

      • -9.6% ISOFOL.SS (Isofol Medical) -- notes publication of investigator-initiated Modelle study of drug candidate arfolitixorin in the scientific journal BJC Reports

      • -7.5% EVD.GR (CTS Eventim) -- Q3 adjusted EBITDA €120.6M vs FactSet €159.6M [4 est, €139.4-174.7M]; confirms FY guidance

      • -6.4% SBO.AV (Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield Equipment) -- Q3 EPS €0.60 vs FactSet €0.98 [1 est]

      • -6.2% GOGL.NO (Golden Ocean Group) -- hold from buy at Pareto

      • -6.0% DOV.IM (doValue) -- releases prospectus concerning rights issue

      • -5.6% PAY.LN (PayPoint) -- H1 underlying EPS 27.4p vs FactSet 26.3p [1 est]; Remains on target to delivering £100M EBITDA by the end of FY26

      • -4.7% MTO.LN (Mitie Group) -- H1 EPS 5.0p ex-items vs FactSet 3.5p [1 est]; reiterates confidence in meeting board expectations for FY25

      • -3.5% WAWI.NO (Wallenius Wilhelmsen) -- acquires vessel following the completion of a long-term charter agreement

      • -3.3% RST.LN (Restore) -- remains on track to deliver adj PBT and adj EPS for FY24 in line with market expectations

      • -3.1% DOKA.SW (dormakaba Holding) -- hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux

      • -3.1% AGAS.NO (Avance Gas Holding) -- completes third VLGC delivery to BW LPG

      • -3.1% TE.FP (Technip Energies) -- issues FY25 and FY28 medium term targets -- CMD

      • -2.8% KLIN.SW (Klingelnberg) -- H1 net income (€1.8M) vs year-ago €1.1M

      • -2.8% NFN.GR (NFON) -- 9M eatnings; guides FY recurring revenue growth to lower end of the published range

      • -1.9% VIVE.SS (Vivesto) -- Q3 EPS (SEK0.02) vs year-ago (SEK0.03)

      • -1.2% HEXA.B.SS (Hexagon) -- agrees to acquire indurad for an undisclosed sum

      • -1.0% IDS.LN (International Distribution Services) -- H1 adjusted operating income £61M vs year-ago (£169M); on track to deliver FY guidance

        • On earnings/updates: XPS.LN (XPS Pensions Group) and reversing initial gains IGD.IM (IGD SIIIQ)

  • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

    • Earnings:

      • Benelux: Cie d'Entreprises CFE (CFEB.BB), Bekaert (BEKB.BB)

      • DACHs: Oberbank (OBS.AV), BKS Bank (BKS.AV), Vita 34 (V3V.GR)

      • Nordics: Lan & Spar Bank (LASP.DC), TCM Group (TCM.DC), Pyrum Innovations (PYRUM.NO), Viking Supply Ships (VSSAB.B.SS), Anoto Group (ANOT.SS)

      • UK: Workspace Group (WKP.LN)

    • Trading Update: Ackermans & van Haaren (ACKB.BB), Bekaert (BEKB.BB)

    • CMD/events: Enel (ENEL.IM), Unilever (ULVR.LN), VINCI (DG.FP), Komax Holding (KOMN.SW), WithSecure Corp (WITH.FH)

• Data:

  • Economics:

    • Netherlands Oct unemployment rate 3.7% vs consensus 3.6%, prior 3.7%

    • Norway Q3 GDP (1.8%) q/q vs consensus +0.5%, prior revised +2.0% from +1.4%

    • UK

      • Oct public sector net borrowing £17.35B vs consensus £15.9B, prior revised £16.14B from £16.61B

      • Nov industrial trends orders (19) vs consensus (25), prior (27) - CBI

    • France Nov business survey 97 vs consensus 95, prior revised 93 from 92

    • Eurozone Nov flash consumer confidence (13.7) vs consensus (13.0), prior (12.5)

  • Markets:

    • WTI Crude (Jan 25): +$1.03 or +1.50% to $69.78

    • €-$ (0.0064) or (0.61%) to 1.0479

    • £-$ (0.0059) or (0.47%) to 1.2593

    • €-£ (0.0012) to 0.8322

    • S&P 500 +0.31%

    • Performance year-to-date:

      • FTSE 100: +5.38%

      • DAX: +14.29%

      • CAC: (4.37%)

      • MIB: +9.70%

      • Stoxx 600: +4.92%