Nov 26 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity market set to open lower amidst Asian equities turning mostly lower Tuesday. Risk off sentiment prevailing following Trump message on increased tariffs on Chinese exports. Japan boards, and Australia and South Korea benchmarks notably lower as local currencies sank.
Trump reignited trade tensions after announcing 10% tariffs on China above any additional tariffs, and 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, as part of his first executive orders upon taking office. Trump cited crime, drugs and illegal immigrants being facilitated through those countries. Comes day after markets welcomed Scott Bessent's nomination as Treasury Secretary amid thoughts he would help to moderate tariff implementation.
On today's agenda, on the political front, EU's von der Leyen participates in the EP plenary debate on the new College of Commissioners and its program. RTE's Prime Time hosts the final election campaign tv debate at 21:35GMT with leaders of the three largest political parties -Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin. Germany's Ministry of Economics' Industry Conf. speakers include Minister of Economics Habeck, BDI President Russwurm. Other events Tue include Forum Solar Plus 2024, speakers include Minister of Economics Habeck on the next necessary steps in the energy transition, The Economist hosting event title If 2024 was dramatic, what should you expect from 2025? and Handelsblatt Auto Summit (through Wed). First day of trading for LightOn (ALTAI.FP) on Euronext Growth Paris
In central banks, Riksbank's seminar at 8:30CET on neutral interest rates, speakers include Riksbank's Seim at 8:30CET. Bank of France's Villeroy speech at 9:00CET at ACPR and at 10:15 at Investir Day conf, whilst Bank of Portugal's Centeno speech at 10:00CET. Bank of Finland's Rehn speaks at 11:00CET at public hearing of parliamentary Finance Committee, ECB's McCaul speech at 11:00CET followed by Q&A at the EBF's Executive Committee Meeting. BOE's Benford panellist at 13:30GMT at Finextra NextGen conf. BOE's Pill before House of Lords Bank committee at 15:00GMT on the topic of economic inactivity: welfare and long-term sickness. Bank of Portugal releases its latest Financial Stability Report. Annual Bank of Lithuania Real Estate Conf.
Macro data releases include Sweden Oct PPI, Finland Oct unemployment rate, UK Nov distributive trades - CBI
In corporate news, Vienna Insurance Group (VIG.AV) reported 9M earnings and confirmed its FY24 positive outlook. In France, Trigano (TRI.FP) reported FY earnings and proposed a total dividend of €3.50 per share. In Nordics, AarhusKarlshamn (AAK.SS) announced an update of its 2030 Aspiration, ahead of tomorrow's CMD, whilst BICO Group (BICO.SS) and MPC Container Ships (MPCC.NO) reported Q3 earnings. Earnings/updates still due from the likes of Compass (CPG.LN) and Intertek (ITRK.LN)
In M&A, Roche (ROG.SW) to acquire Poseida Therapeutics (PSTX) for up to $13/share in cash, or $1.5B (CHF1.33B) in equity value. Bloomberg reported that Ørsted (IRSTED.DC) will launch sale of ~50% stake in Hornsea 3 UK wind farm project. In Italy, the FT reported that Generali (G.IM) and Natixis are exploring asset management tie-up.
Politics/Macro/World News
Trump Vows Tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada in First Trade Threat Since Election Win - Bloomberg
Europe Risks Losing More Jobs Over Energy Costs, ABB CEO Warns - Bloomberg
Relax Germany's debt brake, says Angela Merkel - FT
Marine Le Pen might be about to wreck the eurozone - Politico
Finland Oct Unemployment Rate 8.1% vs prior 8.1%
UK Nov shop price index (0.6%) y/y vs prior (0.8%) - BRC
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
QBY.GR (q.beyond) -- intends to raise EBITDA margin to at least 10% in medium term -- CMD
VIG.AV (Vienna Insurance Group) -- reports 9M PBT €666.5M vs year-ago €614M; confirms its FY24 positive outlook
France
TRI.FP (Trigano) -- reports FY net income €374.5M vs FactSet €365.9M [7 est, €319.9-385M]
Southern Europe
EXAE.GA (Hellenic Exchanges-Athens Stock Exchange) -- reports 9M net income €13.2M vs year-ago €9.6M
INC.IM (Innovatec) -- guides FY EBITDA €30-33M vs FactSet €38.5M [1 est] (Post EU close 25-Nov)
Benelux
ONWD.BB (Onward Medical) -- Q3 business update: cash and cash equivalents of €23.2M as of 30-Sep-24
Nordics
MPCC.NO (MPC Container Ships) -- reports Q3 Adjusted EPS $0.13 vs FactSet $0.13 [4 est, $0.12-0.13]; raises FY guidance
BICO.SS (BICO Group) -- reports Q3 EPS from cont. ops (SEK3.49) vs FactSet (SEK0.44)
IWS.NO (Integrated Wind Solutions) -- reports Q3 net income NOK2.6M vs year-ago (NOK0.6M)
JIN.NO (Jinhui Shipping & Transportation) -- reports Q3 EPS $0.07 vs year-ago ($0.07)
AAK.SS (AarhusKarlshamn) -- AAK announces update of its 2030 Aspiration, ahead of tomorrow's CMD
VOW.NO (Vow ASA) -- reports Q3 net income (NOK7.0M) vs year-ago (NOK66.5M)
Still due to report
Earnings:
France: Aramis Group (ARAMI.FP)
Nordics: Cadeler (CADLR.NO), Møns Bank (MNBA.DC)
UK: Compass Group (CPG.LN), LondonMetric Property (LMP.LN), Cranswick (CWK.LN), Renew Holdings (RNWH.LN), AO World (AO.LN), FD Technologies (FDP.LN), AB Dynamics (ABDP.LN), Halfords Group (HFD.LN), Vp (VP.LN), Helical (HLCL.LN), Brickability Group (BRCK.LN), Supreme (SUP.LN), Mercia Asset Management (MERC.LN), IG Design Group (IGR.LN), Accsys Technologies (AXS.LN), Intercede Group (ICP.LN), Topps Tiles (TPT.LN), Victoria (VCP.LN)
Trading Update: Intertek Group (ITRK.LN), Hill & Smith (HILS.LN), Safestore Holdings (SAFE.LN)
CMD/events: Axa (CS.FP), LANXESS (LXS.GR), Stratec (SBS.GR), Royal KPN (KPN.NA) ESG, Industrie De Nora (DNR.IM) sustainability, EXOR (EXO.IM), Teleperformance (TEP.FP), Adocia (ASDOC.FP)
M&A
ROG.SW (Roche) -- to acquire Poseida Therapeutics for up to $13/share in cash, or $1.5B (CHF1.33B) in equity value
ENR.GR (Siemens Energy) -- TPG has become the likely buyer of Siemens Energy's wind energy assets in India - Bloomberg
ORSTED.DC (Ørsted) -- said to launch sale of ~50% stake in Hornsea 3 UK wind farm project -- Bloomberg
MF.FP (Wendel) -- exploring sale of Stahl - Bloomberg
EAST.SS (Eastnine) -- acquires 46-storey office tower in Warsaw from Ghelamco for €280M
G.IM (Assicurazioni Generali) -- Generali, Natixis exploring asset management tie-up - FT (25-Nov, seemingly around 14:30 CET)
Multiple superannuation admin services businesses on the block - The Australian
Healthcare
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Roche's Genentech update on the Phase III SKYSCRAPER-01 study, evaluating tiragolumab combined with Tecentriq (atezolizumab) compared to Tecentriq alone for patients with PD-L1-high, locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC
XVIVO.SS (Xvivo Perfusion) -- completes enrollment for U.S. clinical trial evaluating XVIVO's heart preservation technology
BICO.SS (BICO Group) -- subsidiary CELLINK announces further right-sizing and launches sharpened commercial agenda
Other
BA.LN (BAE Systems) -- awarded $212.1M US NAVY contract
NWG.LN (NatWest Group) -- SEC filing: SC 13D/A (Filed by HM Treasury)
AVOL.SW (Avolta) -- wins new ten-year contract; adds Manaus Airport to Brazil portfolio
Adani Green Energy clarifies that there is no new financial commitments under discussion with TotalEnergies and therefore its decision to halt new investments has no material impact
Nissan Motor seeking steady, long-term anchor investor for the next 12 months as Renault sells down its stake - FT
Key rating changes
Upgrades
COFA.FP (Coface) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
DTE.GR (Deutsche Telekom) -- to outperform from neutral at Oddo
ENG.SM (Enagas) -- to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan
NXT.LN (Next) -- to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets
Downgrades
AVOL.SW (Avolta) -- to underweight from overweight at Barclays
AMUN.FP (Amundi) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
AMUN.FP (Amundi) -- to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan
HM.B.SS (H&M Hennes & Mauritz) -- to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets
ARIS.IM (Ariston Holding) -- to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
NIBE.B.SS (NIBE Industrier) -- to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
Initiations
GXI.GR (Gerresheimer) -- outperform at Bernstein
AMBU.B.DC (Ambu) -- market perform at Bernstein
WEIR.LN (Weir Group) -- hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
DWL.LN (Dowlais Group Plc) -- hold at Berenberg
IMI.LN (IMI) -- buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
SMN.LN (Smiths Group) -- buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
SPX.LN (Spirax Group) -- hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Others
SGRO.LN (Segro) -- resumed overweight at Morgan Stanley
Data
Nikkei (0.87%) to 38442.00
Hang Seng +0.04% to 19158.35
Shanghai Composite (0.12%) to 3259.79
S&P futures +3.0 vs prior close of 6006.5
€-$ (0.0018) or (0.17%) to 1.0477
$-¥ (0.22) or (0.14%) to 153.98
€-¥ (0.52) or (0.32%) to 161.31
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