Nov 27 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set for a weaker open amidst mixed Asian markets. Nikkei under pressure and Kospi weaker but gains for greater China and ASX. US equity futures little changed.
Downbeat tone for European markets pinned on uncertainty relating to Trump tariff plans. While Trump warned of additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods and 25% levy on products from Mexico and Canada when he enters office, did not specifically mention Europe. Some takeaways have viewed it as a negotiating tactic, but prospect of broader tariffs remains after vowing to address unfair trade practices. Commentary on the European equity market outlook has also remained cautious given the risks to growth outlook and earnings outlook.
Sweden hosts Nordic-Baltic PMs' meeting (through Thu), Poland's PM Tusk will also attend. Jörg Kukies, state secretary at the German Chancellery, discusses Germany's comprehensive growth initiative for improving competitiveness, energy prices and security of supply at 14:30CET at event hosted by OMFIF. Bruegel hosts event title UK-EU Cooperation on energy and climate: Opportunities and practical solutions. UK government announced statutory levy on gambling operators to generate £100M and new online slot stake limits of £5 per spin for adults aged 25 and over and £2 per spin for 18-24 year olds
In central banks, Norges Bank's publishing latest Financial Stability Report at 9:00CET whilst Riksbank's Jansson speech at 8:30CET at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Southern Sweden. BOE's D Bailey remarks ay 15:15GMT at Climate Financial Risk Forum Symposium. ECB's Lane and BOE's Pill speeches at 19:00CET at event organised by the ECB in Frankfurt.
On the macro front, Germany Dec consumer confidence - GfK, France Nov consumer confidence, Norway Oct unemployment rate and Switzerland Nov ZEW expectations are due to be released.
In earnings, Aroundtown (AT1.GR) reported Q3 EPS €0.09 vs year-ago (€0.07) whilst Neoen (NEAON.FP) anticipates FY 2024 adjusted EBITDA €475-490M vs prior guidance €530-560M. In the Nordics, Norsk Hydro (NHY.NO) released an update ahead of its CMD saying it is advancing on its 2030 strategy to seize opportunities from the green transition whilst Elekta (EKTA.B.SS) reported Q2 EPS SEK0.63 ex-items vs StreetAccount SEK0.78.
Elsewhere, Aston Martin (AML.LN) will raise gross proceeds of ~£210M through a proposed equity placing of £110M and issue of £100M of additional senior secured notes whilst also updating FY24 and FY25 outlook and mid-term FY2027/28. Avolta (AVOL.SW) won a significant tender at John F. Kennedy International Airport and confirmed medium-term targets and reaffirms positive outlook.
In M&A, El Economista reported Air Europa is negotiating the sale of 20% stake to Air France-KLM (AF.FP) and it aims to find a potential industrial partner.
Politics/Macro/World News
Job boom creates Swiss immigration headache for EU trade talks - Reuters
French PM Barnier: A 'serious storm' is on the horizon if the French government falls - politico
Europe Set for Coldest Winter Since Ukraine War, Posing Energy Risk - Bloomberg
US trade tariffs would pose risk to economic growth, top BoE official warns - FT
EU opts for risky wait-and-see approach to Trump presidency - politico
Online slots gambling to be limited to £5 per spin - BBC
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs:
AVOL.SW (Avolta) -- wins significant tender at John F. Kennedy International Airport; confirms medium-term targets and reaffirms positive outlook
AT1.GR (Aroundtown) -- reports Q3 EPS €0.09 vs year-ago (€0.07)
France:
ARAMI.FP (Aramis Group) -- announces strategic roadmap and financial targets for 2027 - CMD
NEOEN.FP (Neoen) -- anticipates FY 2024 adjusted EBITDA €475-490M vs prior guidance €530-560M
Nordics:
EKTA.B.SS (Elekta) -- reports Q2 EPS SEK0.63 ex-items vs StreetAccount SEK0.78
STOR.B.SS (Storskogen) -- expects 2025-2027 adj EBITA margin above 10% (LTM) -- CMD
NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro) -- advancing on its 2030 strategy to seize opportunities from the green transition - CMD
AGAS.NO (Avance Gas Holding) -- reports Q3 EPS ex-gain on sale $0.34 vs FactSet $0.26 [4 est, $0.19-0.36]
GSF.NO (Grieg Seafood) -- reports Q3 EPS (NOK0.3) vs FactSet (NOK1.94) [9 est, (NOK2.45)-(1.48)]
SVEAF.SS (Sveafastigheter) -- reports Q3 EPS (€1.69), no year-ago figure provided
DDRIL.NO (Dolphin Drilling) -- reports Q3 EPS ($0.10) vs FactSet ($0.06) [4 est, ($0.07)-(0.05)]
UK:
AML.LN (Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings) -- updates on FY24 and FY25 outlook and mid-term FY2027/28
M&A
IAG.LN (IAG.LN) Air Europa is negotiating the sale of 20% stake to Air France-KLM; aims to find a potential industrial partner - El Economista
TTGT (TechTarget) -- announces shareholder approval for combination with Informa Tech's digital businesses
FNAC.FP (Fnac Darty) -- announces that the European Commission has today unconditionally authorized the acquisition of Unieuro
ACAD (Acadia Pharmaceuticals) -- announces exclusive license agreement with Saniona for SAN711
TEP.FP (Teleperformance) -- TP announces acquisition of 'ZP Better Together'; price not disclosed
REC.IM (Recordati) -- Angelini Pharma in talks over potential combination with Recordati - Bloomberg (26-Nov, 14:44 CET)
SAB.SM (Banco de Sabadell) -- European Commission concludes review of BBVA and Banco Sabadell transaction under European Foreign Subsidies Regulation without raising any objections
EQT.SS (EQT AB) -- EQT divests stake in Parcel2Go
RHC.AU (Ramsay Health Care) -- refuses to commit to sale of offshore assets despite investor pressure - Australian Financial Review
NEOEN.FP (Neoen) -- Follow-up: Neoen anticipates FY 2024 adjusted EBITDA €475-490M vs prior guidance €530-560M
MARI.AV (Marinomed Biotech) -- AG signs agreement for sale of Carragelose business to French Unither Pharmaceuticals
Healthcare
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- announces Kisqali receives European Commission approval in a broad population of patients with HR+/HER2- early breast cancer at high risk of recurrence
ABT (Abbott Labs) -- Judge in Missouri infant formula case denies Abbott Labs' motions for new trial, reduce damages -- Seeking Alpha
AZN.LN (AstraZeneca) -- NICE recommends AstraZeneca's Wainua to treat hereditary transthyretin-related amyloidosis
IDIA.SW (Idorsia) -- enters into exclusive negotiations for global rights to aprocitentan; will receive exclusivity fee of $35M; ~270 positions globally could become redundant
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- submits Label Extension Application for its Chikungunya Vaccine, IXCHIQ, to the U.S. FDA
Other
SHLF.NO (Shelf Drilling, Ltd.) -- CEO Greg O'Brien purchases 250K shares -- filing
ULVR.LN (Unilever) -- exited Russia because it didn't see a window into the near future where it would regain control of the business - Bloomberg
MT.NA (ArcelorMittal) -- provides update on European decarbonization plans (26-Nov, pre-EU open)
RR.LN (Rolls-Royce Holdings) -- awarded $695.3M US Navy contract
GALP.PL (Galp Energia SGPS) -- decides not to move forward with Aurora project
SPM.IM (Saipem) -- awarded offshore EPCI contract by BP in Indonesia
AML.LN (Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings) -- Aston Martin today announces its intention to raise gross proceeds of ~£210M through a proposed equity placing of £110M and a proposed issue of £100M of additional senior secured notes
Anglo American South Africa sold 17.5M shares of Anglo American Platinum at a price of ZAR548.00/share through Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Rand Merchant Bank
UK government to bring forward statutory levy on gambling operators to generate £100M; confirms online slot stake limits
Key rating changes
Upgrades
JPMorgan upgrades CCH.LN, ESSITY.B.SS, HEN3.GR; downgrades CCEP, CCEP.NA
EQNR.NO (Equinor) -- buy from hold at Berenberg
Jefferies upgrades EDPR.PL; downgrades EDP.PL
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgrades AV.LN; downgrades G.IM
Morgan Stanley upgrades NESN.SW, NSRGY
DLG.LN (Direct Line Insurance Group) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
MELE.BB (Melexis) -- to neutral from sell at UBS
OPM.FP (OPmobility) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
SYENS.BB (Syensqo) -- to equal weight from underweight at Barclays
VOLV.B.SS (Volvo) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
Downgrades
TTE.FP (TotalEnergies) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
BOO.LN (boohoo Group) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
TYRES.FH (Nokian Renkaat) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan
Initiations
LONN.SW (Lonza Group) -- buy at Redburn Atlantic
NKT.DC (NKT A/S) -- neutral at Oddo
HUH1V.FH (Huhtamaki) -- buy at Deutsche Bank
PUIG.SM (Puig Brands) -- overweight at Barclays
Other Actions
CABP.LN (CAB Payments Holdings) -- reinstated equal weight at Barclays
Data
Nikkei (0.80%) to 38134.97
Hang Seng +1.36% to 19420.57
Shanghai Composite +1.21% to 3299.14
S&P futures +0.3 vs prior close of 6038.3
€-$ (0.0009) or (0.09%) to 1.0478
$-¥ (0.94) or (0.61%) to 152.14
€-¥ (1.17) or (0.73%) to 159.43
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