Nov 29 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed higher Friday. Follows positive close Thursday. Tech, Basic Resources and Financials best performers; Personal Care Drug & Grocery Stores, Telco and Utilities the biggest laggards.
A busy morning for macro releases out of the region. Focus on Eurozone CPI data, which reaccelerated in November as expected. Comes as consumer inflation expectations pick-up and after mixed national data, fitting in with gradual approach to easing. German retail sales weak but jobs data not as weak as expected. In UK, BoE mortgage approvals at the highest level since August 2022 in October at 68.30K, above estimate. Property portal Zoopla predicts sales and price outlook positive for early 2025 ahead of expiring tax breaks. Also, UK Oct M4 Money Supply down by (0.1%) m/m vs expected expansion +0.4%. BoE Financial Stability Report warned risks around the global economic outlook have increased due to geopolitical tensions, global trade tensions and pressure on government debt levels. In France, budget talks appear to be moving towards a compromise after Barnier dropped plans to raise taxes on electricity after coming under pressure from Le Pen. Meanwhile, Q3 final GDP +1.2% y/y vs preliminary +1.3% while Oct Consumer Goods Spending contracted (0.4%) m/m more than forecast. Elsewhere, Swiss KOF leading indicator saw big beat in November.
On the corporate news flow front, MTU Aero Engines (M.TX.GR) confirms FY24 earnings forecast; guides FY25 and hikes FY25 divi by 10%, Delivery Hero (DHER.GR) will raise $2.0B (~€1.93B) from the Talabat IPO while Orkla (ORK.NO) is considering listing its Indian unit next year.
In M&A news, Norma Group (NOEJ.GR) initiated the divestment of global Water Management activities whilst - in the UK - ABC Technologies Inc and TI Fluid Systems agreed on a recommended all cash acquisition of 200p for every TI Fluid Systems (TIFS.LN) share; in Spain, Repsol (REP.SM) sold two exploration and production assets in Colombia to GeoPark for $530M.
Looking ahead to next week EU econ-calendar, notable releases on Monday will include, amongst others, Italy and Spain Nov manufacturing PMI and final reads for Eurozone, France, Germany and UK, France Oct industrial production, Italy Q3 final GDP and Oct unemployment rate, Eurozone Oct unemployment rate and UK Nov house price index - Nationwide.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Technology +1.60%, Basic Resources +1.60%, Financial Svcs +1.06%, Consumer Products and Services +0.78%, Autos & Parts +0.76%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.69%, Insurance +0.66%
Underperformers
Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.26%), Telecom (0.20%), Utilities (0.03%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.01%, Travel & Leisure +0.01%, Real Estate +0.13%, Chemicals +0.40%, Oil&Gas+0.40%, Banks +0.40%, Construct & Mtls +0.43%, Media +0.44%, Health Care +0.50%
Macro:
Central banks:
UK:
UK's Starmer names new transport minister after embarrassing resignation -- Reuters
Germany:
France:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+14.4% NOEJ.GR (Norma Group €13.74, +1.70) -- to initiate divestment of global Water Management activities; Oddo upgrade
+5.9% ELIOR.FP (Elior Group €2.67, +0.15) -- JPMorgan upgrade
+5.8% AALB.NA (Aalberts €36.40, +2.00) -- BofA upgrade
+5.4% AAL.LN (Anglo American £25.24, +1.30) -- BHP needs copper; buying Anglo American may be the solution - FT; Jefferies upgrade
+4.8% MCB.LN (McBride £1.10, +0.05) -- completes refinancing
+3.6% AZA.SS (Avanza Bank Holding SEK234.10, +8.20) -- Swedish National Debt Office releases its quarterly report on the Swedish systemically important banks' and other institutions' compliance with MREL at the end of Q3
+3.4% KGX.GR (Kion Group €33.79, +1.12) -- BofA upgrade
+3.4% AGN.NA (Aegon €6.07, +0.20) -- BofA upgrade
+3.3% IMI.LN (IMI £18.21, +0.58) -- BofA upgrade
+2.9% MTX.GR (MTU Aero Engines €322.20, +9.20) -- confirms FY24 earnings forecast; guides FY25 and hikes FY25 divi by 10%
+2.7% SPI.LN (Spire Healthcare Group £2.27, +0.06) -- sources say Narayana Hrudayalaya is in advanced talks to acquire a controlling stake
+2.3% TETY.SS (Tethys Oil SEK57.30, +1.30) -- Roc Oil receives reg approvals in Oman for cash offer to Tethys Oil shareholders
+2.2% TKWY.NA (Just Eat Takeaway.com €15.12, +0.33) -- price target raised at JPMorgan
+1.6% TIFS.LN (TI Fluid Systems £1.93, +0.03) -- ABC Technologies and company reache agreement on the terms and conditions of a recommended all cash acquisition
+1.4% WDP.BB (Warehouses de Pauw €20.92, +0.28) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+1.2% WAC.GR (Wacker Neuson €13.64, +0.16) -- Warburg Research upgrade
+1.2% FLS.DC (FLSmidth & Co. DKK385.20, +4.40) -- BofA upgrade
Notable Decliners
-20.5% SYNT.SS (SyntheticMR SEK5.06, -1.30) -- launches SEK65M share rights issue priced at SEK3.65/sh; to acquire Finnish Combinostics for €4.3M (SEK49.6M)
-4.9% BA.LN (BAE Systems £12.20, -0.63) -- BofA downgrade
-3.5% QQ.LN (QinetiQ Group £4.15, -0.15) -- BofA downgrade
-2.3% VNV.SS (VNV Global SEK18.82, -0.45) -- provides update on the expected closing of the ongoing Gett Transaction
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Prosus (PRX.NA)
Data:
Economics:
Portugal
Q3 GDP +1.9% y/y vs preliminary +1.9%
Oct Unemployment Rate 6.6% vs consensus 6.4% and prior revised 6.6% from 6.4%
Nov Preliminary CPI +2.5% y/y vs consensus +2.5% and prior +2.3%
Greece Oct PPI (2.3%) y/y vs consensus (1.0%) and prior (4.5%)
Belgium Q3 GDP +1.2% y/y vs preliminary +1.0%
Eurozone Nov Preliminary CPI +2.3% y/y vs consensus +2.3% and prior +2.0%
Italy Nov Preliminary CPI +1.4% y/y vs consensus +1.4% and prior +0.9%
Spain October Retail Sales y/y +3.5% vs consensus +3.7% and prior revised to +4.2% from +4.1%
France
October
Consumer Goods Spending m/m (0.4%) vs consensus (0.1%) and prior revised to +0.1% from +0.1%
PPI m/m +0.9% vs consensus 0.0% and prior (0.1%)
November Preliminary CPI y/y +1.3% vs consensus +1.4% and prior +1.2%
Q3 Final GDP q/q +0.4% vs consensus +0.4% and prior +0.4%
Switzerland
November KOF Leading Indicator 101.8 vs consensus 100.0 and prior revised to 99.7 from 99.5
Q3 GDP y/y +2.0% vs consensus +1.8% and prior revised to +1.5% from +1.8%
UK Oct
Mortgage Approvals 68.30K vs consensus 64.5K and prior revised 66.11K from 65.65K
M4 MoneySupply m/m (0.1%) vs consensus +0.4%) and prior revised to +0.5% from +0.6%
Germany
October Retail Sales y/y +1.0% vs consensus +3.8% and prior revised to +3.2% from +3.2%
November Unemployment Rate 6.1% vs consensus 6.1% and prior 6.1%
Markets:
WTI Crude (25-Jan): +$0.55 or +0.80% to $69.27
€-$ (0.0007) or (0.07%) to 1.0548
£-$ +0.0009 or +0.07% to 1.2696
€-£ (0.0012) to 0.8309
S&P 500 +0.56%
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +7.16%
DAX: +17.16%
CAC: (4.08%)
MIB: +10.03%
Stoxx 600: +6.53%
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