Dec 02 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly flat to lower, as Dec trading gets underway. Europe's leading equity markets saw mixed performances in November, with STOXX 600 +0.96%, FTSE 100 +2.2%, DAX +2.9%, while CAC fell (1.6%), and MIB was down (3.1%). Sector focus revolved around companies most exposed to trade tensions and Trump policies. In Germany, the collapse of the ruling coalition was supportive for domestic markets amid hopes that a new government will usher in pro-growth policies. In contrast, French budget woes undermined French assets. The BoE and Riksbank cut rates, but Norges Bank remained on hold. Comments from ECB officials reinforced expectations of a December rate cut.
In central banks today, ECB's Lagarde participates at 11:00CET in EIB Group Climate and Environment Advisory Council. BOE's Foulger speech at 17:00GMT at Bloomberg UK Policy Series. Riksbank's Breman speech at 16:00CET at the 330th anniversary of Köpmansgillet i Visby. Latvia central bank's Kazāks interviews at TV3 900 seconds program and to "Delfi TV".
European macro data releases out today include Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland Nov manufacturing PMI ang final reads for Eurozone, France, Germany and UK, France Oct industrial production, Italy Oct unemployment rate, Q3 final GDP, Switzerland Oct retail sales, Austria Nov unemployment rate, Netherlands Oct retail sales, Eurozone Oct unemployment rate, Ireland Q3 final GDP. France, Italy and Spain Nov new car registrations are due for release.
Among stocks in focus this morning is Stellantis (STLAM.IM) as CEO Carlos Tavares resigned effective immediately. The process to appoint the new permanent CEO is well under way, and will be concluded within H1 of 2025. Until then, a new Interim Executive Committee, chaired by John Elkann, will be established. Stellantis confirms the guidance it presented to the financial community on 31-Oct-24, in respect of its full year 2024 results. NKT A/S (NKT.DC) updates medium-term financial ambitions for 2028 for organic revenue growth and operational EBITDA. Ipsos (IPS.FP) confirms that discussions are currently underway regarding a potential acquisition of Kantar Media
On the political front, French President Macron begins state visit to Saudi Arabia (through Wed). UK PM Starmer is expected to deliver annual foreign policy speech at Lord Mayor's Banquet. Meeting of EU development ministers as well as EU labour and social affairs ministers. Politico Pro event title The incoming Polish Presidency of the Council of the EU.
Politics/Macro/World News
Scholz Proposes €100 Billion Investment Fund for Germany -- Bloomberg
EU commissioner pitches 'Europe first' in response to Trump -- FT
ECB to abandon crisis-era strategy as inflation falls -- FT , citing ECB Chief economist Philip Lane
Netherlands Oct Retail Sales +2.0% y/y vs consensus +2.3% and prior +2.6%
Top company news
Earnings/updates
STLAM.IM (Stellantis) -- CEO Carlos Tavares resigns effective immediately; process to appoint the new permanent CEO is well under way; confirms the guidance it presented to the financial community on 31-Oct-24, in respect of its full year 2024 results
PRX.NA (Prosus) -- reports H1 adj net income $3.50B vs year-ago $2B; CFO Basil Sgourdos to retire, effective 30-Nov-24
ICAD.FP (Icade) -- revises FY 2024 guidance
ROSN.RU (Rosneft Oil) -- reports 9M net income attributable RUB926M, (14%) vs year-ago RUB1.08B
TTALO.FH (Terveystalo) -- updates medium-term financial targets; to host CMD on 4-Dec
NKT.DC (NKT A/S) -- updates medium-term financial ambitions for 2028 for organic revenue growth and operational EBITDA
Also reporting today
CMD/events: Billerud (BILL.SS), Schneider Electric (SU.FP) - India
M&A
UCB.BB (UCB) -- completes divestment of mature product business in China; enters into commercial agreement with Bioray
CNR.LN (Condor Gold Plc) -- Condor Gold has received non-binding offers from Calibre Mining, Metals Exploration (roughly 15:00 ET/20:00 GMT)
CNR.LN (Condor Gold Plc) -- Metals Exploration near deal to buy Condor Gold for cash and stock - Sky News
CXB.CN (Calibre Mining) -- responds to Condor Gold announcement; no offer for Condor is active
6655.HK (Huaxin Cement) -- to acquire Caricement for $560.4M (CNY4.06B), Davis Peak Holdings for $277.7M (CNY2.01B)
Holcim (HOLN.SW) to sell its Nigerian business to Huaxin Cement at equity value of $1B (CHF880.9M/CNY7.24B) on 100% basis
IPS.FP (Ipsos), WPP.LN (WPP) -- Ipsos confirms that discussions are currently underway regarding a potential acquisition of Kantar Media
CPG.LN (Compass Group) -- on the hunt for more M&A deals in Europe - FT, citing CEO
ETL.FP (Eutelsat Communications) -- agrees to sell 80% stake in its passive ground segment infrastructure assets to EQT
TIT.IM (Telecom Italia) -- extends deadline for TI Sparkle acquisition amid advanced talks with MEF and Retelit
IDS.LN (International Distribution Services) -- EC investigating whether buying Royal Mail would give Daniel Kretinsky too much market power - Mail on Sunday
DLG.LN (Direct Line Insurance Group) -- Direct Line CEO wants holders to leave business in his team's hands - Sunday Times
INPST.NA (InPost) -- could spend over €1B on acquisitions as it bets on UK to drive European expansion - FT, citing CEO
GIMB.BB (Gimv Consumer) -- acquires a majority stake in Lupine Lighting Systems
BYW6.GR (BayWa) -- Second BayWa draft restructuring report confirms restructuring feasibility
ALTA.FP (Altarea) -- Warehouses de Pauw to acquire Bollène, Puceul from Altarea
LGRS.LN (Loungers) -- 3.9% Loungers holder Gresham House to vote against Fortress's proposed 310p/share buyout - London Times
CICN.SW (Cicor Technologies) -- to acquire Profectus; terms undisclosed
Glass Lewis recommends Doosan Enerbility holders vote for business split, merger involving Doosan Robotic - Chosun
Investment trusts of Mega Financial Holding, First Financial Holding, Taiwan Cooperative Financial Holding consider merger - China Times (pre-Taiwan open)
Healthcare
NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk) -- FDA approves sNDA for Wegovy with additional maintenance dose for teens with obesity
ALCOX.FP Nicox announces that Denali phase 3 trial of NCX 470 fully enrolled in China earlier than expected
Other
GALP.PL (Galp Energia SGPS) -- provides update on Namibia exploration and appraisal
ATO.FP (ATOS SE) -- Atos concludes €233M rights issue
ARB.LN (Argo Blockchain) -- announces £4.2M subscription by institution
UNI.SM (Unicaja Banco) -- approves for first time an interim dividend of €0.06 gross per share against 2024 results
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $271.1M, +179.1% y/y - Box Office Mojo
Key rating changes
Upgrades
NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
PNDORA.DC (Pandora) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
BRBY.LN (Burberry Group) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
ABF.LN (Associated British Foods) -- to hold from sell at Deutsche Bank
ITX.SM (Inditex) -- to hold from sell at Deutsche Bank
CMCX.LN (CMC Markets) -- to hold from underperform at Jefferies
AI.FP (Air Liquide) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
AKZA.NA (Akzo Nobel) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
JMAT.LN (Johnson Matthey) -- to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan
BAS.GR (BASF) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
SYENS.BB (Syensqo) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
IMCD.NA (IMCD) -- to hold from sell at Deutsche Bank
BNP Paribas Exane upgrades ENEL.IM, RED.SM
Downgrades
KER.FP (Kering) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan
UHR.SW (Swatch Group) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan
1COV.GR (Covestro) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
SDZ.SW (Sandoz Group) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
SDF.GR (K+S AG) -- to sell from hold at Deutsche Bank
BNP Paribas Exane downgrades EDPR.PL, ORSTED.DC
Data
Nikkei +0.80% to 38513.02
Hang Seng +0.35% to 19492.54
Shanghai Composite +0.94% to 3357.89
S&P futures (14.0) vs prior close of 6051.5
€-$ (0.0034) or (0.32%) to 1.0535
$-¥ +0.64 or +0.43% to 150.34
€-¥ +0.17 or +0.11% to 158.38
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