Dec 03 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open flat to higher amidst Asian equities trading mostly higher Tuesday. Boards led higher by Japan's Nikkei and Topix, Seoul and Taipei also very strong as tech stocks rallied. More gains for the Hang Seng but mainland China boards mixed.
As foreshadowed in press, US unveiled new controls on exports of AI and chip components to China and suppliers to Huawei. Measures less restrictive than earlier proposals mentioned in press though shares of China-listed semis generally lower on Tuesday with SMIC under pressure in Hong Kong. China issued stock response in criticizing US curbs while vowing unspecified measures to safeguard its interests.
In French politics, National Rally's (RN) announced that it will support a no-confidence motion against PM Barnier, triggered by his use of Article 49.3 to push through a controversial spending bill (Bloomberg).
In central banks, ECB's Cipollone in conversation at 9:00CET at GeoEconomy Talk organised by RCS Academy and BOE's Lintern speech at 9:50GMT at FX Markets Europe on Global FX Code. Bank of Italy's Panetta speech at 16:30CET at Spain-Italy Forum (through Wed). In UK, there are MPs questions on the Treasury at 11:30GMT (Chancellor Reeves among the ministers answering questions), whilst committee topics include work of the FCA (10:15GMT), Strategic Defence Review (10:30) and economic inactivity: welfare and long-term sickness (15:00).
Other events Tuesday include meeting of the EU health ministers, NATO foreign ministers meet, launch of European Hydrogen Bank second auction and FT Global Banking Summit (through Wed), panellists include BOE's D. Bailey at 12:05GMT. OMFIF hosts Future of payments forum - Frankfurt whilst SPE hosts event ay 17:00GMT title Economic Growth and the Challenge of Demographics. Politico sustainable future week kicks off (through Thu).
European macro data releases out today include Spain Nov unemployment change, Switzerland Nov CPI, UK Nov retail sales monitor - BRC
In corporate news, Salvatore Ferragamo (SFER.IM) confirmed FY outlook and indicated it expects potential negative impairment test in 2024 financial statements. In Switzerland, Swiss Life Holding (SLHN.SW) presented financial targets for 2025-27 ahead of its investors day today. In France, Edenred (EDEN.FP) confirmed its FY25 objectives and increases its share buyback program for total amount of up to €600M vs prior €300M ahead of its CMD today. Elsewhere, ASML Holding (ASML.NA) announced that it expects the impacts of additional US export restrictions on suppliers for the export of chip manufacturing technology to fall within 2025 outlook.
Politics/Macro/World News
UK chemicals sector doubts Starmer 'reset' will end Brexit blues - FT
French Government on Brink of Collapse Over Budget - Bloomberg
Radical planning reform needed to hit 1.5m housebuilding target in England, Labour warned - The Guardian
Trump to visit France in first post-election overseas trip - Baha
Ireland's centre-right government needs a new alliance partner - Handelsblatt
Sentiment in the German Automotive Industry Deteriorates Rapidly - IFO
UK retailers report weakest sales since April, BRC survey shows - Reuters
Top company news
Earnings/updates
SFER.IM (Salvatore Ferragamo) -- confirms outlook; expects potential negative impairment test in 2024 financial statements
SLHN.SW (Swiss Life Holding) -- publishes financial targets for 2025-27; Raises ROE target to 17-19% - Investor Day
EDEN.FP (Edenred) -- confirms its FY25 objectives; increases its share buyback program for total amount of up to €600M vs prior €300M -- CMD
Also due to report today
Earnings:
France: MedinCell (MEDCL.FP), Abeo (ABEO.FP)
Southern Europe: Grenergy Renovables (GRE.SM)
UK: Paragon Banking (PAG.LN), SSP Group (SSPG.LN), Greencore (GNC.LN), Victrex (VCT.LN), discoverIE Group (DSCV.LN), On The Beach Group (OTB.LN), Marston's (MARS.LN), Celebrus Technologies (CLBS.LN), Gooch & Housego (GHH.LN), Oxford Metrics (OMG.LN), System1 Group (SYS1.LN), Mind Gym (MIND.LN)
CMD/events: Essity (ESSITY.B.SS)
M&A
PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding) -- Partners Group agrees to acquire real estate platform Empira Group; terms of the transaction undisclosed
CNR.LN (Condor Gold Plc) -- Follow-up: Condor Gold PLC confirms that it continues to be in discussions with Metal Explorations plc; provides details of offer
AIG (American International Group) -- AIG closes sale of its global personal travel insurance and assistance business to Zurich Insurance Group; deal was announced 26-Jun
DOW (Dow, Inc.) -- Dow completes $150MM sale of flexible packaging laminating adhesives business to Arkema
TTGT (TechTarget) -- Creation of Informa TechTarget confirmed after completion of the combination with Informa Tech's digital businesses
SGO.FP (Compagnie de Saint-Gobain) -- co-owned Izocam acquires new construction chemicals plant in Turkey; terms undisclosed
LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa) -- EU approves three airlines as suitable remedy takers under the commitments made by Lufthansa in order to acquire stake in ITA Airways (29-Nov)
AKE.FP (Arkema) -- finalizes Dow's flexible packaging laminating adhesives business
STF.FP (Stef) -- completes acquisition of TDL Fresh Logistics
CNR.LN (Condor Gold Plc) -- confirms that it continues to be in discussions with Metal Explorations plc
2768.JP (Sojitz) -- seeking partners to join in bid for North Queensland Airport - Australian Financial Review
Healthcare
IMCR (Immunocore Holdings) -- NICE recommends Immunocore's KIMMTRAK for funding through NHS
IPN.FP (Ipsen) -- and Biomunex Pharmaceuticals announce exclusive global licensing agreement for BMX-502
IPH.FP (Innate Pharma) -- announces three abstracts selected for the ASH Annual Meeting 2024
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- Reports Positive Three-Year Antibody Persistence Data for its Single-Shot Chikungunya Vaccine IXCHIQ
HNSA.SS (Hansa Biopharma) -- Hansa Biopharma, Genethon announce initiation of Phase 2 trial of imlifidase as pre-treatment to GNT-0003 in severe Crigler-Najjar syndrome
Other
AKAST.NO (Akastor) -- has been awarded a 6-month extension of the existing contract with Petrofac for the vessel Skandi Emerald
ACC.NO (Aker Carbon Capture) -- Brevik carbon capture plant reaches mechanical completion
AIR.FP (Airbus SE) -- Airbus delivered over 80 jets in November -- Reuters, citing industry sources
STLAM.IM (Stellantis) -- expects to appoint a permanent CEO within 1H25; Interim Executive Committee (IEC) will be responsible for the direction and oversight of the company until a successor is appointed
VWS.DC (Vestas Wind Systems) -- awarded 342 MW order from Invenergy Wind LLC in the USA
Italy Nov new passenger car registrations 124,251 units, (10.8%) y/y -- UNRAE
Key rating changes
Upgrades
BMW.GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
AHT.LN (Ashtead Group) -- to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets
BAS.GR (BASF SE) -- to buy from add at Baader Helvea (2-Dec, timing uncertain)
P911.GR (Porsche) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
BOSS.GR (Hugo Boss) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
Salvatore Ferragamo (SFER.IM) -- to neutral from sell at UBS
Ceres Power Holdings (CWR.LN) -- to sector perform from underperform at RBC Capital Markets
Downgrades
MBG.GR (Mercedes-Benz Group) -- to underweight from equal weight at Barclays
NN.NA (NN Group) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
AZM.IM (Azimut Holding) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
COV.FP (Covivio) -- to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
GEST.SM (Gestamp Automoción) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
FR.FP (Valeo SE) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
FRVIA.FP (Forvia) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
MBG.GR (Mercedes-Benz Group) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
P911.GR (Porsche) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
GEST.SM (Gestamp Automoción) -- to sell from neutral at UBS
EL.FP (EssilorLuxottica) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
NEL.NO (NEL ASA) -- to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets
CE.IM (Credito Emiliano) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
HYQ.GR (Hypoport) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
SY1.GR (Symrise) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
Initiations
THULE.SS (Thule Group) -- buy at DnB Markets
SOP.FP (Sopra Steria Group) -- outperform at Oddo
MCOV.B.SS (Medicover) -- buy at Deutsche Bank
EVO.SS (Evolution) -- buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
Data
Nikkei +1.91% to 39248.86
Hang Seng +0.81% to 19708.59
Shanghai Composite +0.52% to 3381.48
S&P futures +1.5 vs prior close of 6061.8
€-$ (0.0010) or (0.10%) to 1.0489
$-¥ +0.46 or +0.30% to 150.05
€-¥ +0.34 or +0.22% to 157.38
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