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StreetAccount Summary - European Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.56% to 8359.41, DAX +0.42% to 20016.75, CAC40 +0.26% to 7255.42, STOXX 600 +0.37% to 515.53

Dec 03 ,2024

• Synopsis:

  • European equity markets closed higher. Pan-European indices opened higher and quickly extended gains, reaching the best levels of the day around an hour after the open, before shares pared advances and became range-bound, though remained above initial levels through the session

  • Switzerland 0.0% and Netherlands +0.3%, join the CAC in leading underperformers, followed by a handful of country benchmarks +0.4%. Spain +1.2%, Norway +1.1% and Ireland, Italy both +1.0% led outperformers.

  • In political developments, in France, the government of PM Barnier will face a no-confidence vote tomorrow called by far-right and leftwing opposition parties. In a speech in London late yesterday, UK PM Starmer conceded negotiations would end Ukraine war and stated that stepping up support for Ukraine was an essential move to put the country in the strongest position for peace talks. At the end of the week, Sweden's Minister for Defence Pål Jonson will visit the United States to take part in the Reagan National Defense Forum, and will take part in a panel discussion on security in Europe on 7-Dec, entitled 'A Secure and Free Europe: NATO, Ukraine, and the Arsenal of Democracy'. In Gaza, continuing skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah leaves ceasefire hanging by a thread. Sweden's PM Kristersson began a 2-day visit to Japan, that is due to be followed later in the week by visit to South Korea, though the current political situation in the country (BBC) may put the visit in some doubt.

  • Reportedly, OPEC+ likely to extend production cuts until end of Q1 of 2025 ay their meeting pm Thursday

  • Central bank speakers included ECB's Cipollone (Reuters) at GeoEconomy Talk organised by RCS Academy and BOE's Lintern (speech) at FX Markets Europe on Global FX Code. Bank of Italy's Panetta spoke at Spain-Italy Forum.

  • The handful of economic data releases saw disappointing retail sales monitor on the UK, though British Retail Consortium's CEO commented while it was undoubtedly a bad start to the festive season, the poor spending figures were primarily down to the movement of Black Friday into the December figures this year. Even so, low consumer confidence and rising energy bills have clearly dented non-food spending. Both Switzerland Nov CPI and Spain Nov unemployment change were better than expected.

  • Also in the UK, the ONS said its new Labor Force Survey (LFS) may not be ready until 2027. The ONS has reweighted LFS quarterly person data back to 2019 and will release results on 17-Dec. Its indicative estimate showed stronger growth in population estimates since mid-2022 means employment level is 402K higher, unemployment up 30K and economic inactivity 60K higher for Q2 of 2024. In Germany, sentiment in the country's automotive industry continued to weaken in Ifo's latest survey

  • M&A news flow included Carlsberg (CARL.B.DC) agreeing to divest its shares in Baltika Breweries, Animalcare Group (ANCR.LN) agrees to acquire Randlab for enterprise value of A$120.0M and Haemonetics agrees to sell its whole blood assets to GVS (GVS.IM) for a total cash consideration of up to $67.1M. Reportedly, TotalEnergies (TTE.FP) is near an acquisition of VSB Group from Partners Group Holding (PGHN.SW), and Indian company Jupiter Wagons interested in Talgo (TLGO.SM). Previously announced deals that were completed included WPP Group's (WPP.LN) sale of majority stake in FGS Global to Kite Bidco Inc and Informa Tech's Digital Businesses combination with TechTarget.

  • The pace of earnings and updates continues to moderate, and Boozt Fashion, Greencore Group, Paragon Banking Group and SSP Group among companies seeing positive share price response to updates, whilst Swiss Life Holding shares moved lower.

• Digest:

  • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

    • Outperformers:

      • Retail +1.43%, Construct & Mtls +1.24%, Technology +1.02%, Travel & Leisure +0.93%, Oil & Gas +0.93%, Banks +0.79%, Basic Resources +0.74%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.61%

    • Underperformers:

      • Insurance (0.42%), Telecom (0.27%), Food & Beverage (0.26%), Utilities (0.20%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.14%), Real Estate (0.13%), Media +0.05%, Health Care +0.14%, Autos & Parts +0.16%, Financial Svcs +0.22%, Chemicals +0.31%

  • Macro/Peripheral markets:

    • ECB:

      • Blog; Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus: Crisis and Recovery - release

    • France:

      • Government on brink of collapse as no-confidence motions loom - Reuters, Telegraph, Politico

    • Greece:

      • PM Mitsotakis dismisses the prospect of a windfall tax on banking profits during a speech in London - ekathimerini

    • Ireland:

      • Focus shifts to government formation after final result of general election announced - RTE

      • Oct number of mortgage approvals +8.6% m/m, +13.0% y/y; value +11.6% m/m, +22.1% y/y - Banking and Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI)

    • Norway:

      • South Africa announced that Norway will continue as guest country during their presidency of the G20 - Norway government press release

    • UK:

      • PM Starmer rejects choosing between US and EU in Foreign Policy speech - FT, speech

    • Ukraine:

      • NATO chief Rutte urges focus on weapons for Ukraine, not new initiatives - FT

      • Denounces 1994 nuclear disarmament deal, pushes for NATO membership - Reuters

  • Company news:

    • Notable Gainers

      • +27.2% EXM.BB (Exmar NV) -- holder Saverex offers to acquire company for €11.50/share

      • +20.1% OTB.LN (On The Beach Group) -- FY adjusted EPS cont ops 13.9p vs year-ago 12.0p; launches buyback

      • +16.0% DSCV.LN (discoverIE Group) -- H1 underlying EPS 18.4p vs year-ago 19.2p; hold from sell at Shore Capital Stockbrokers

      • +14.5% VCT.LN (Victrex) -- FY underlying EPS 51.7p vs consensus 59p; notes solid start to FY25 despite mixed trading conditions

      • +11.8% GNC.LN (Greencore Group) -- FY adj EPS 12.7p vs FactSet 11.5p [8 est, 10.6-12.5p]; reinstates 2p/share divi and additional £10M share buyback

      • +9.6% SSPG.LN (SSP Group) -- FY Underlying EPS 9.9p vs FactSet 9.6p [14 est, 7.1-10.1p]; guides FY25 EPS of between 11-13p vs FactSet 11.8p

      • +8.0% MARS.LN (Marston's) -- FY Adjusted EPS 5.1p vs FactSet 5.9p

      • +7.1% HOT.GR (Hochtief) -- buy from neutral ay BofA

      • +7.1% SFER.IM (Salvatore Ferragamo) -- confirms outlook; expects potential negative impairment test in 2024 financial statements

      • +6.6% PAG.LN (Paragon Banking Group) -- FY EPS 101.1p ex-items vs FactSet 95.9p [7 est, 85.0-102.8p]

      • +5.7% GHH.LN (Gooch & Housego) -- FY adjusted EPS 25.5p vs FactSet 24.7p [3 est, 24.0-25.4p]

      • +3.5% AKAST.NO (Akastor) - has been awarded a 6-month extension of the existing contract with Petrofac for the vessel Skandi Emerald

      • +3.0% OSE.FP (OSE Immunotherapeutics) -- names Aurore Morello as head of research and Director of R&D Programs

      • +2.9% MDG1.GR (Medigene) -- receives $1M milestone payment from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals; milestone does not change FY24 guidance

      • +2.9% BOOZT.SS (Boozt Fashion) -- updates FY24 guidance updated following Black Week

      • +2.7% VLA.FP (Valneva) --reports positive 3-year antibody persistence data for its single-shot Chikungunya vaccine IXCHIQ

      • +2.4% FER.SM (Ferrovial) -- buy from neutral at BofA

      • +2.4% PHM.SM (Pharma Mar) -- NMPA approves marketing of Luye Pharma's Zepzelca for SCLC through priority review program

      • +2.1% GOMX.SS (GomSpace Group) --signs SEK 36M contract with new customer in Singapore

      • +2.0% STF.FP (Stef) -- completes acquisition of TDL Fresh Logistics

      • +1.9% SGO.FP (Compagnie de Saint-Gobain)

        • co-owned Izocam acquires new construction chemicals plant in Turkey; terms undisclosed

        • closes acquisition of Kilwaughter in the UK and Ireland

      • +1.9% STLAM.IM (Stellantis) -- North America chief Antonio Filosa reportedly a frontrunner for the permanent CEO role -- Reuters

      • +1.3% PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding) -- agrees to acquire real estate platform Empira Group; terms of the transaction undisclosed

      • +1.1% STVG.LN (STV Studios) -- wins order from Warner Bros. Discovery

      • +1.0% RYA.ID (Ryanair Holdings) -- Nov passengers 13.0M, +11% y/y

        • On earnings/updates: ESSITY.B.SS (Essity), TIV.DC (Tivoli), CLBS.LN (Celebrus Technologies), CDA.FP (Compagnie des Alpes) and reversing initial falls MIND.LN (Mind Gym)

    • Notable Decliners

      • -29.6% ATO.FP (ATOS) -- agrees to resolve the lawsuit filed by Unisys against Atos and two Atos employees in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania

      • -8.0% GEST.SM (Gestamp Automoción) -- sell from neutral at UBS; equal weight from overweight at Barclays

      • -6.1% FTON.SW (Feintool International) -- to realign production

      • -6.0% TOM2.NA (TomTom) -- sell from neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen

      • -4.7% FRVIA.FP (Forvia) -- neutral from buy ay UBS

      • -4.7% SLHN.SW (Swiss Life Holding) -- publishes financial targets for 2025-27; Raises ROE target to 17-19% - Investor Day

      • -3.1% NEL.NO (NEL) -- receives another 10 MW purchase order from Samsung C&T; sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets

      • -3.0% OMG.LN (Oxford Metrics) -- FY EPS 3.0p ex-items vs FactSet 2.2p [3 est, 2.0-2.3p]

      • -2.7% GRE.SM (Grenergy Renovables) -- Q3 net income €5.9M vs FactSet €5.9M [3 est, €5.2-7.2M]

      • -2.6% FR.FP (Valeo) -- neutral from buy at UBS

      • -2.4% CURY.LN (Currys) -- hold from buy at Deutsche Bank

      • -2.3% EDEN.FP (Edenred) -- shares reversed initial gains

        • confirms its FY25 objectives; increases its share buyback program for total amount of up to €600M vs prior €300M -- CMD

        • completes the acquisition of IP's energy cards business

      • -1.7% CNR.LN (Condor Gold) -- confirms that it continues to be in discussions with Metal Explorations plc; provides details of offer

      • -1.5% GEMD.LN (Gem Diamonds) -- revises Life of Mine Plan for Letšeng; extends revolving credit facility for 2 years

        • On earnings/updates: SYS1.LN (System1 Group) and reversing initial gains WIZZ.LN (Wizz Air Holdings)

  • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

    • Earnings:

      • France: Wavestone (WAVE.FP), Oeneo (SBT.FP), Pierre & Vacances (VAC.FP)

      • Nordics: Systemair (SYSR.SS), Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS), Integrum (INTEG.B.SS)

      • Southern Europe: Elecnor (ENO.SM)

      • UK: Treatt (TET.LN), Premier Miton Group (PMI.LN)

    • Trading Update: Volvo Car (VOLCAR.B.SS), Nordnet (SAVE.SS), Avanza Bank (AZA.SS), flatexDEGIRO (FTK.GR), Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS)

    • CMD/events: Rio Tinto (RIO.LN), Infineon Technologies (IFX.GR), Tryg (TRYG.DC), Enea (ENEA.SS), Terveystalo (TTALO.FH), Diaceutics (DXRX.LN), X-FAB Silicon Foundries (XFAB.FP), Sitowise Group (SITOWS.FH), Circio Holding (CRNA.NO)

• Data:

  • Economics:

    • Switzerland Nov CPI +0.7% y/y vs consensus +0.8%, prior +0.6%

    • Spain Nov unemployment change (16.0K) vs consensus +29.3K, prior +26.8K

    • UK Nov retail sales monitor (3.4%) y/y vs consensus +0.7% and prior +0.3% - BRC

  • Markets:

    • WTI Crude (Jan 25): +$1.89 or +2.78% to $69.99

    • €-$ +0.0014 or +0.13% to 1.0514

    • £-$ +0.0009 or +0.07% to 1.2665

    • €-£ +0.0004 to 0.8301

    • S&P 500 (0.19%)

    • Performance year-to-date:

      • FTSE 100: +8.10%

      • DAX: +19.49%

      • CAC: (3.81%)

      • MIB: +11.46%

      • Stoxx 600: +7.63%