Dec 05 ,2024
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open lower amidst Asian equities mostly higher Thursday. Solid gains for Japan, Australia, mainland China and Singapore, which briefly touched record highs. South Korea seeing more losses, the Hang Seng is giving up some of its gains this week, and India is also lower in early trades. Southeast Asia is mixed. US futures ticking lower, European markets eying a dip at the open although analysts say French political turmoil may be priced in. US dollar steady, yen stronger, yuan flat. Treasury yields mostly higher, CGB yields sinking further, South Korean sovereigns stable. Crude oil flat, precious metals lower, base metals mixed. Cryptocurrencies surging on new SEC pick, bitcoin above $100K.
In political developments, French PM Barnier ousted after losing no-confident vote. Follows Barnier's attempts to push through a controversial budget package. This was the first successful no-confidence vote in France since 1962. Barnier's tenure was less than three months. President Macron now needs to find a successor, though analysts suggest finding a suitable candidate is likely to be challenging given the country's fragmented political landscape.
In central banks, Riksbank's Seim speech at 9:30CET at meeting of the Assn of Swedish Finance Houses and BOE's Cleland speech at 14:10GMT at event hosted by Fintech connect. ECB's Montagner speech at 16:15CET at IIF Colloquium on European Banking Regulation & Supervision whilst BOE's Greene is a panellist at 17:00GMT at FT's Global Boardroom conf, other speakers/panellists include Luxembourg's PM (10:00GMT), Royal Philips (PHIA.NA) & AstraZeneca (AZN.LN) CEOs (10:30), DS Smith (SMDS.LN) CEO (14:30). Central Bank of Cyprus' Patsalides speaks at banking and fintech conf.
Further on today's agenda, OPEC+ meeting and meeting of EU transport ministers. Italy's PM Meloni hosts French PM Barnier. In UK, MPs hold a general debate on improving public transport. OSCE Ministerial Council (through Fri); Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov plans to attend. UK's CBI and Italy's Istat issue economic forecasts.UK Nov new car registrations will be released.
Economic updates to be released today: Germany Oct factory orders, Nov construction PMI, Spain Oct industrial production, Switzerland Nov unemployment rate, Sweden Nov preliminary CPI, Eurozone Oct retail sales
In corporate news, Aurubis (NDA.GR) reports FY operating pretax income €413M vs guidance 410M and reaffirms FY24/25 guidance. The group also proposes a dividend of €1.50/share, +7.1% y/y. Zumtobel Group (ZAG.AV) is also out with H1 earnings and confirmed FY outlook. Other companies in the region expected to update the market include with their latest earnings/updates include: Derichebourg (DBG.FP), Groupe LDLC (ALLDL.FP), DS Smith (SMDS.LN), Frasers Group (FRAS.LN), Watches of Switzerland (WOSG.LN), AJ Bell (AJB.LN), Future (FUTR.LN), SDI Group (SDI.LN)
On M&A front, Neoen (NEON.FP) divests its Victorian portfolio in A$950M sale to HMC Capital.
CMD/events: Safran (SAF.FP), Mersen (MRN.FP), Sabre Insurance Group (SBRE.LN), FUCHS (FPE3.GR)
Politics/Macro/World News
French political impasse deepens after government ousted in no-confidence vote - France24
Euro's outlook gets even murkier after French government falls - Bloomberg
Hungary to lose €1B in EU funds by year-end - Politico
Ireland urged to set aside more of its corporate tax windfall - FT
Starmer vows to tackle UK street crime in bid to rebuild support - Bloomberg
Top company news
Earnings/updates
NEOEN.FP (Neoen) -- HMC Capital secures A$550M senior debt asset-level facility to support acquisition of Neoen's Victorian portfolio for A$950M
ZAG.AV (Zumtobel Group) -- reports H1 net income €18.4M vs year-ago €21.2M
NDA.GR (Aurubis) -- reports FY operating pretax income €413M vs guidance 410M; reaffirms FY24/25 guidance
M&A
ALKAL.FP (Kalray) -- launces strategic review of its assets; may divest certain group activities
EXPN.LN (Experian) -- acquires Audigent; terms not disclosed
ALV.GR (Allianz) -- AllianzGI division reported to receive interest from Amundi - Bloomberg
URW.FP (Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield) -- acquires 38.9% stake in URW Germany JV from partner CPP Investments for 3.254 Mn URW stapled shares
TREL.B.SS (Trelleborg) -- finalizes acquisition of Magee Plastics
NEOEN.FP (Neoen) -- divests Victorian portfolio in A$950M sale to HMC Capital
Healthcare
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- FDA Accepts Supplemental Biologics License Application for Genentech's Columvi Combination for People With Relapsed or Refractory Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma
Other
FER.SM (Ferrovial) -- declares an additional interim cash dividend of €0.0346/share (gross); cites forecasted cash levels at yearend
SBB.B.SS (Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden) -- receives additional letters expressing intention to accelerate from bondholders regarding Eurobonds issued under its EMTN programme
LHA.GR (Lufthansa) -- Executive Board member Dieter Vranckx examining extent to which company's eleven passenger airlines can work more closely together -- Handelsblatt
Key rating changes
Upgrades
ADM.LN (Admiral Group) - to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
AV.LN (Aviva) -- upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
JUST.LN (Just Group) -- upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
LGEN.LN (Legal & General Group) - upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs
AG1.AV (Auto1 Group) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
AZA.SS (Avanza Bank Holding) -- to buy from hold at SEB
BAMI.IM (Banco BPM) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
DGE.LN (Diageo) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
DIM.FP (Sartorius Stedim Biotech) -- to market perform from underperform at Bernstein
HFG.GR (HelloFresh) -- HelloFresh transferred buy at Jefferies; prior rating was hold
PUM.GR (Puma) -- to outperform from neutral at Oddo
Downgrades
SIKA.SW (Sika Group) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan
COFA.FP (Coface) - to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
MNG.LN (M&G Plc) - to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
NN.NA NN Group- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
Other Actions
TIT.IM (Telecom Italia) -- resumed hold at Deutsche Bank
Data
Nikkei +0.30% to 39395.60
Hang Seng (1.20%) to 19505.84
Shanghai Composite (0.04%) to 3363.16
S&P futures (3.0) vs prior close of 6098.5
€-$ +0.0018 or +0.17% to 1.0529
$-¥ (0.92) or (0.61%) to 149.70 X
€-¥ (0.71) or (0.45%) to 157.60
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