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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.51%) to 8306.47, DAX +0.13% to 20385.79, CAC40 +1.36% to 7430.05, STOXX 600 +0.18% to 520.45

Dec 06 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices ended in positive territory, with France outperforming the region. Attention remained on the French political situation. President Macron vowed to serve out his full presidential term until 2027 in a national address. Blamed far-right and far-left for political crisis, which he said was to provoke an early election. Macron said he would name a new PM in next few days. French market took encouragement Thursday from Le Pen comments, who said she is willing to support a budget if deficits are narrowed more gradually, with Bund-OAT spreads tightening on the remarks Analysts warn that if Le Pen is perceived to have destabilized the economy, it could hinder her efforts to attract more affluent voters essential for her presidential ambition. Credit Agricole suggested investors concerned that lingering political uncertainty could hurt French growth outlook and even push the economy into recession. Yet, broker sees less scope for OAT contagion and doubts ECB would meet very dovish market expectations. Hence, while recently downgrading euro outlook, broker suggested short-term European economic bearishness may be excessive.

    • On the macro-calendar, German industrial production disappointed in October, down 1.0% m/m versus consensus for 1.2% increase and prior 2.0% drop revised from 2.5% fall initially reported. Follows yesterday's 1.5% m/m fall in factory orders data. Breakdown revealed significant drop in energy production, which was down 8.9% versus prior month and there was also a 1.9% in automotive production. When excluding energy and construction, fall was by much shallower 0.3%. Other details revealed production of consumer goods fell by 1.0% and capital goods 0.4% lower. Only intermediate goods saw a rise of 0.4%. In the UK, business lobby group CBI cut its 2025 growth estimate due to budget costs on firms. BoE's Greene said growth will take time to recover due to impact on consumers from higher mortgage costs. Highlighted implications for Trump tariffs on UK unclear. In other news, ECB said to be looking at speeding up approvals for significant risk transfers to help lenders take advantage of demand for deals.

    • In M&A news, Aviva (AV.LN) and Direct Line (DLG.LN) reached a preliminary agreement on financial terms of potential acquisition of entire share capital of Direct Line by Aviva, whilst Frasers Group plc (FRAS/LN) launched a voluntary offer for all of the shares in XXL ASA (XXL.NO) at NOK 10 per share; also, Holcim (HOLN.SW) announced the planned spin-off of its North American business is expected to occur in H1 of 2025; in the Nordics, local press reported that Tietoevry (TIETO.FH) is in talks with British VC company Agilitas to divest its largest business area, Tech Services (expected valuation €300-400M) and EQT (EQT.SS) is seeking buyers for Banking Circle. During the afternoon, wires reported that Ubisoft Entertainment (UBI.FP) shareholders are considering how to structure a potential buyout

    • On a light reporting front, Freenet (FNTN.GR) guided FY EBITDA and - still in the DACH region - Dr. Hönle (HNL.GR) posted preliminary FY numbers; in the UK, Berkeley Group Holdings (BKG.LN) reported H1 and Sanofi (SAN.FP) issued its revised financial statements after the Opella deal

    • Looking at next week's calendars (pls see attached below our StreetAccount Summary - Europe Week Ahead: Dec 9-13), ECB and SNB interest rate decisions are the main events, with OPEC/IEA oil market reports, Eurogroup meeting, CPIs and manufacturing/industrial productions from across the region also eyed. Earnings/trading updates include British American Tobacco (BATS.LN), Ashtead Group (AHT.LN) and Inditex (ITX.SM)

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers: Autos & Parts +1.84%, Persnl & HHold Goods +1.69%, Real Estate +0.76%, Chemicals +0.72%, Health Care +0.60%, Technology +0.42%, Construct & Mtls +0.28%, Retail +0.25%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.26%

      • Underperformers: Basic Resources (0.82%), Oil & Gas (0.81%), Utilities (0.55%), Banks (0.48%), Insurance (0.41%), Food & Beverage (0.08%), Financial Svcs (0.09%), Telecom +0.01%, Travel & Leisure +0.08%, Media +0.16%

    • Macro:

      • Months of chaos will cripple France for years (Reuters)

      • French Socialist leader extends olive branch to Macron as talks on next government begin (Politico)

      • European Union and Mercosur conclude free trade deal (Le Monde)

      • German Federal and State Governments agree on security package (HB)

      • €36B tax fraud scandal returns to haunt Germany's Scholz (Politico)

      • Keir Starmer's criticism of civil servants 'Trumpian', says union boss (Guardian)

      • BofA, Wall Street's Biggest Pound Bull, Sees Another 8% Gain (BBG)

      • Italy won't OK EU-Mercosur deal without farmer safeguards (Ansa)

      • Romanian court cancels presidential election amid Russian influence fears (Politico)

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +213.8% MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology CHF1.54, +1.05) -- secures up to ~$39M bridge financing to stabilize business and provide liquidity runway

        • +26.9% XXL.NO (XXL ASA NOK10.15, +2.15) -- Frasers Group plc intends to launch voluntary offer for all of the shares in the company at NOK 10 per share

        • +22.6% SEQUA.BB (Sequana Medical €0.83, +0.15) -- decision of major shareholders to invest in Second Tranche of Convertible Bridge Loan

        • +13.8% DFCH.LN (Distribution Finance Capital Holdings £0.37, +0.05) -- FY trading update

        • +13.5% UBI.FP (Ubisoft Entertainment €13.29, +1.59) -- shareholders considering how to structure a potential buyout -- Reuters

        • +6.6% IPH.FP (Innate Pharma €1.45, +0.09) -- company and the Institute for Follicular Lymphoma Innovation (IFLI) Announce up to $7.9M Investment From IFLI to Support IPH6501 Development in Follicular Lymphoma

        • +6.4% DLG.LN (Direct Line Insurance Group £2.51, +0.15) -- and Aviva reach preliminary agreement on financial terms of potential acquisition

        • +5.8% BIOVIC.B.SS (Biovica International SEK2.66, +0.15) -- CLIA Lab achieves New York State permit that opens the entire US market

        • +4.9% JHD.LN (James Halstead £1.96, +0.09) -- AGM statement

        • +4.2% NORSE.NO (Norse Atlantic NOK3.94, +0.16) -- Nov stats

        • +3.0% STLAM.IM (Stellantis €12.90, +0.38) -- company and Zeta Energy announce agreement to develop lithium-sulfur EV batteries

        • +0.7% FNTN.GR (Freenet €29.72, +0.20) -- guidance

        • +0.4% SAN.FP (Sanofi €92.21, +0.39) -- issues revised financial statements for excluding Opella

      • Notable Decliners

        • -3.3% CAM.LN (Camellia £48.00, -1.65) -- completes BF&M sale and launches share buy-back programme

        • -3.2% EAST.SS (Eastnine SEK46.80, -1.56) -- holder Ghelamco Group NV places 7.1M shares at SEK45/share

        • -3.2% FRAS.LN (Frasers Group £6.41, -0.21) -- to launch voluntary offer for all of the shares in XXL at NOK 10 per share

        • -2.9% DNB.NO (DNB Bank NOK226.80, -6.70) -- Norway's Ministry of Finance announces changes to the capital requirements for Norwegian banks

        • -2.9% DNB.NO (DNB Bank NOK226.80, -6.70) -- comments on impact of Ministry of Finance's decision regarding capital requirements for Norwegian banks

        • -2.2% AVIO.IM (Avio €13.14, -0.30) -- successful launch of flight VV25

        • -1.9% HNL.GR (Dr. Hönle €8.24, -0.16) -- prelim FY

        • -1.8% HSHP.NO (Himalaya Shipping NOK60.30, -1.10) -- issues Nov commercial and cash distribution update

        • -1.4% AV.LN (Aviva £4.83, -0.07) -- and Direct Line reach preliminary agreement on financial terms of potential acquisition

        • -1.4% HAUTO.NO (Höegh Autoliners NOK128.00, -1.80) -- market update

        • -1.3% BKG.LN (Berkeley Group Holdings £41.24, -0.54) -- earnings

        • -0.3% G24.GR (Scout24 €89.85, -0.25) -- new CEO

        • -0.2% BMED.IM (Banca Mediolanum €11.39, -0.02) -- Nov stats

    • EU companies reporting on Monday:

      • Earnings: none

      • CMD/events: Novartis (NOVN.SW) Sustainability & Impact - ESG, Philogen (PHIL.IM), Fresenius (FRE.GR) - SdK

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Germany Oct Industrial Production (1.0%) m/m vs consensus +1.2% and prior revised (2.0%) from (2.5%)

      • France Oct Trade Balance (€7.7B) vs consensus (€8.0B) and prior revised (€8.4B) from (€8.3B)

      • Italy Oct Retail Sales +2.6% y/y vs consensus +0.9% and prior +0.7%

      • Denmark Oct Manufacturing Production +5.5% m/m vs consensus (2.2%) and prior (4.9%)

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Jan 25): ($1.00) or (1.46%) to $67.30

      • €-$ (0.0016) or (0.15%) to 1.0574

      • £-$ (0.0010) or (0.08%) to 1.2750

      • €-£ (0.0004) to 0.8293

      • S&P 500 +0.26%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +7.41%

        • DAX: +21.69%

        • CAC: (1.50%)

        • MIB: +14.47%

        • Stoxx 600: +8.66%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".

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