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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.86%) to 8279.86, DAX (0.08%) to 20329.16, CAC40 (1.14%) to 7394.78, STOXX 600 (0.52%) to 518.51

Dec 10 ,2024

• Synopsis:

  • European equity markets finished mostly lower Tuesday. In sectors, two of the worst performers are personal/household goods and basic resources, which were among the best performing sectors on Monday. Auto/Parts and Health Care outperform. US equities slightly higher in midday trading. Treasuries weaker across the curve. Dollar index up 0.4%. Gold up 1.1%. Bitcoin futures down 0.6%. WTI crude up 0.7%, near session highs.

  • European macro calendar was limited to final CPI releases today. Market participants await US consumer inflation data due Wednesday and raft of central bank decisions from ECB, SNB and BoC. ECB is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps for the third consecutive meeting on 12-Dec and for the fourth time since it started its rate cut cycle in June. Reuters poll showed majority expect SNB to cut rates by 25 bps on Thursday. KPMG survey showed majority of small UK business upbeat about own prospects next year despite economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, French President Macron will meet will all political parties who have indicated willingness to compromise in an effort to find a new prime minister. ECB's Villeroy said France needs to clean up public finances independently from political situation.

  • In corporate news, amidst a number of CMDs held today, Allianz (ALV.GR) introduced new group financial targets for the 2024-2027 period, including an EPS CAGR of 7-9% ahead of its CMD today; Delivery Hero (DHER.GR) announced the listing of Talabat Holding plc raising ~ AED 7.5B (~ $2.0B) with shares pricing at AED 1.60 each, the top end of the proposed range.

  • In the UK, Ashtead Group (AHT.LN) drops post miss in Q2 earnings; group also lowered FY revenue growth guidance and proposed move to US primary listing along with launch of $1.5B buyback. Centrica (CNA.LN) issued a trading update and expects FY24 EPS to be broadly in line with analyst consensus; group also announced £300M extension to existing share buyback programme. Severn Trent (SVT.LN) in the spotlight after BBC Panorama reported (9-Dec) it has discovered that Severn Trent is using an accounting trick to artificially inflate its balance sheet by more than a billion pounds. Severn Trent has since issued a response to BBC Panorama report and claims allegations are completely inaccurate, misleading, and misrepresentative. Elsewhere, Husqvarna (HUSQ.B.SS), (5.3%), guided Q4 operating income of (SEK 700M) - (SEK 800M) vs FactSet (SEK 467.1M), citing continued challenging market conditions with intensified promotional activities, particularly in North America, while Aalberts AALB.NA said it is on track to realise 2026 objectives and presents 2030 targets at todays' CMD.

  • In M&A headlines, Prudential (PRU.LN) is reportedly considering options including selling ~30% stake in Eastspring Investments. Roche (ROG.SW) commenced a tender offer for all shares of Poseida Therapeutics (PSTX) for $9.00/share in cash, plus non-tradeable contingent value right for up to $4.00/share in cash. TeamViewer (TMV.GR) signs an agreement with Carlyle Europe Technology Partners, part of global investment firm Carlyle (CG), to buy London-based 1E at an enterprise value of $720M on a cash-free, debt-free basis, which is expected to close in early 2025 after obtaining all necessary regulatory approvals. Spar Nord Bank (SPNO.DC) receives all-cash voluntary takeover offer from Nykredit Realkredit A/S at DKK 210/sh valuing offer at DKK24.7B.

• Digest:

  • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

    • Outperformers:

      • Autos & Parts +0.65%, Real Estate +0.11%, Travel & Leisure +0.07%, Banks +0.07%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.05%, Chemicals (0.00%), Media (0.12%), Utilities (0.32%), Health Care (0.35%), Retail (0.48%)

    • Underperformers:

      • Consumer Products and Services (1.41%), Ind Goods & Svcs (1.10%), Basic Resources (0.80%), Financial Svcs (0.78%), Telecom (0.75%), Insurance (0.69%), Technology (0.57%), Construct & Mtls (0.57%), Oil & Gas(0.56%)

  • Macro:

    • Central Banks;

      • BoE might be limited in its ability to cut rates aggressively due to a higher neutral rate (Bloomberg analysis)

    • Geopolitics:

      • EU countries freezing Syrian asylum applications (Guardian, FT)

    • UK:

      • Reeves tells ministers to find 5% savings in spending review (Bloomberg)

      • Starmer visits the Gulf with a trade deal in his sights (London Times)

    • Germany:

      • Söder announces veto against possible black-green coalition (Handelsblatt)

    • France:

      • Socialists repeat call for left-wing PM as Macron seeks coalition talks (Reuters )

      • Power supply disrupted by striking workers (Reuters )

  • Peripheral markets:

    • Italy:

      • Italy is planning to sell minority stake in rail operator Ferrovie dello Stato Italiane (+FS.IM) as means to cut debt (Bloomberg )

    • Spain:

      • Catalan separatists threaten ending support for Spain's PM, want confidence vote (Reuters)

    • Cyprus:

      • Britain and Cyprus team up to stop illicit Russian cash flow (Kathimerini )

  • Company news:

    • Notable Gainers

      • +45.8% SPNO.DC (Spar Nord Bank DKK205.00, +64.40) -- receives all-cash voluntary takeover offer from Nykredit Realkredit A/S at DKK 210/share valuing offer at DKK 24.7B

      • +18.9% IDIA.SW (Idorsia CHF1.34, +0.21) -- Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding receives positive recommendation from UK's NICE for Agamree as a treatment for DMD

      • +13.6% PANR.LN (Pantheon Resources £0.27, +0.03) -- Megrez-1 well discovery in the eastern topsets in the Ahpun field

      • +8.8% SANN1.SW (Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding CHF9.00, +0.73) -- receives positive recommendation from UK's NICE for Agamree as a treatment for DMD

      • +6.9% FARN.LN (Faron Pharmaceuticals £1.93, +0.13) -- presents BEXMAB data at ASH Annual Meeting

      • +6.3% FGP.LN (FirstGroup £1.64, +0.10) -- agrees to acquire RATP Dev Transit London Ltd. for an enterprise value of £90M

      • +6.2% ENSU.NO (Ensurge Micropower NOK0.95, +0.06) -- Mirabella Financial Services LLP discloses a 5.14% stake in company

      • +5.5% BEG.LN (Begbies Traynor Group £1.00, +0.05) -- H1 earnings

      • +4.7% HVO.LN (hVIVO plc £0.22, +0.01) -- contract

      • +3.5% NANO.FP (Nanobiotix €3.20, +0.11) -- completion of phase 1 study of NBTXR3 (JNJ-1900) in pancreatic cancer

      • +2.7% MELE.BB (Melexis €58.55, +1.55) -- to commence share buy-back program of up to 850K shares for an amount of up to €50M

  • Notable Decliners

    • -26.3% EAPI.FP (Euroapi €3.26, -1.17) -- appoints Emmanuel Blin as Chairman & David Seignolle as CEO, effective immediately; reaffirms FY24 guidance

    • -24.7% VVY.NA (Vivoryon Therapeutics €1.98, -0.65) -- 9M net income (€17.1M) vs year-ago (€17.1M); extends cash runway

    • -15.1% NCC.LN (NCC Group £1.38, -0.25) -- reports 16 months to 30-Sep-24 results, following change to group's financial year end, with operating profit (£19.2M); expects to deliver profitable growth across both businesses in current financial year to 30-Sep-25

    • -14.4% MOON.LN (Moonpig Group £2.27, -0.39) -- H1 adj EPS 6.1p vs year-ago 5.5p; increases medium-term target for Adjusted EBITDA margin

    • -13.0% AHT.LN (Ashtead Group £54.64, -8.14) -- Q2 Adj. EPS $c116.0 vs consensus $c121.0; launches $1.5B share buyback; lowers FY revenue growth guidance; proposes move to US primary listing

    • -11.7% DHER.GR (Delivery Hero €31.36, -4.17) -- lists Talabat Holding plc raising ~ AED 7.5B (~ $2.0B)

    • -11.5% TMV.GR (TeamViewer €11.10, -1.45) -- agrees to acquire 1E from Carlyle Group

    • -9.5% BWB.GR (Baader Bank €3.89, -0.41) -- cooperation partner Scalable Capital will be able to provide services comparable to Baader Bank from a regulatory perspective

    • -6.3% HUSQ.B.SS (Husqvarna SEK62.44, -4.22) -- estimates Q4 operating income of (SEK 700M) - (SEK 800M) vs FactSet (SEK 467.1M)

    • -4.5% WINE.LN (Naked Wines £0.55, -0.03) -- H1 EPS (8.8p) ex-items vs year-ago (15.8p)

    • -4.0% LPK.GR (LPKF Laser & Electronics €8.23, -0.34) -- lowers FY guidance

    • -3.9% MAVI.E.TI (Mavi Giyim Sanayi ve Ticaret TRY87.60, -3.60) -- 9M earnings

    • -3.4% AKSO.NO (Aker Solutions NOK31.88, -1.12) -- Pareto downgrade

    • -3.3% KIT.NO (Kitron NOK31.50, -1.06) -- CMD

    • -2.9% AALB.NA (Aalberts €36.92, -1.10) -- says it is on track to realise 2026 objectives; sets 2030 targets - CMD

    • -2.6% AGAS.NO (Avance Gas Holding NOK75.70, -2.00) -- completes eighth VLGC delivery to BW LPG

    • -2.5% BRNK.GR (Branicks Group €2.39, -0.06) -- has notarized sale of logistics center in Hochheim on 29-Nov-24

    • -1.7% YCA.LN (Yellow Cake £5.38, -0.09) -- H1 NAVPS £6.17 as at 30-Sep-24 vs year-ago £6.58

    • -1.6% VAR.NO (Vår Energi NOK35.02, -0.58) -- issues schedule update for the Johan Castberg development project; lowers company's FY production guidance at the lower end of guided range of 280 to 290 kboepd

    • -1.4% PRU.LN (Prudential £6.72, -0.09) -- Prudential considering options including selling ~30% stake in Eastspring Investments - Bloomberg

    • -0.6% SPR.LN (Springfield Properties £0.89, -0.01) -- H1 trading update

    • -0.6% GAW.LN (Games Workshop Group £138.70, -0.80) -- PLC reaches final agreement with Amazon for films and TV series

    • -0.5% VLTSA.FP (Voltalia €7.39, -0.04) -- sells 12 megawatts in France

    • -0.2% ALV.GR (Allianz €298.00, -0.60) -- introduces new group financial targets for the 2024-2027 period including EPS CAGR of 7-9% -- CMD

    • -0.2% CNA.LN (Centrica £1.31, -0.00) -- trading update: expects FY24 EPS to be broadly in line with analyst consensus; announces £300M extension to existing share buyback programme

• EU companies reporting tomorrow:

  • Earnings:

    • DACHs: Carl Zeiss Meditec (AFX.GR)

    • France: Figeac Aero (FGA.FP)

    • Nordics: Flugger Group (FLUG.B.DC)

    • Southern Europe: Inditex (ITX.SM)

    • UK: TUI (TUI.LN), Cohort (CHRT.LN)

  • Trading Update: British American Tobacco (BATS.LN), Puuilo (PUUILO.FH)

  • Traffic: Flughafen Zurich (FHZN.SW)

  • CMD/events: Genmab (GMAB.DC) R+D, UNIQA Insurance Group (UQA.AV), Talanx (TLX.GR), Inwido (INWI.SS), Minesto (MINEST.SS), FUCHS (FPE3.GR) - SdK event:

Data:

• Economics:

  • Germany Nov Final CPI +2.2% y/y vs preliminary +2.2%; (0.2%) m/m vs preliminary (0.2%)

    • EU Harmonised: +2.4% y/y vs preliminary +2.4%; (0.7%) m/m vs preliminary (0.7%)

  • Italy Oct Industrial Production (3.6%) y/y vs consensus (3.7%) and prior revised (3.9%) from (4.0%); 0.0% m/m vs consensus (0.1%) and prior revised (0.3%) from (0.4%)

  • Sweden Oct Industrial Production (2.1%) y/y vs consensus +0.2% and prior (1.0%); (0.9%) m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior +1.1%

  • Denmark Nov CPI +1.6% y/y vs consensus +1.7% and prior +1.6%; (0.3%) m/m vs consensus +0.5% and prior +0.6%

  • Norway Nov CPI +2.4% y/y vs consensus +2.5% and prior +2.6%; +0.3% m/m vs consensus +0.4% and prior +0.6%

  • Greece Nov CPI +2.4% y/y vs consensus +2.5% and prior +2.4%; (0.4%) m/m vs consensus +0.4% and prior 0.0%

  • Netherlands

    • Oct Manufacturing Production (0.6%) m/m vs consensus (2.5%) and prior revised (2.5%) from (3.0%)

    • Nov CPI +4.0% y/y vs preliminary +4.0%

• Markets:

  • WTI Crude (Jan 25): +$0.51 or +0.75% to $68.88

  • €-$ (0.0054) or (0.51%) to 1.0502

  • £-$ (0.0005) or (0.04%) to 1.2746

  • €-£ (0.0036) to 0.8241

  • S&P 500 +0.00%

  • Performance year-to-date

    • FTSE 100: +7.07%

    • DAX: +21.36%

    • CAC: (1.97%)

    • MIB: +13.75%

    • Stoxx 600: +8.25%