Dec 11 ,2024
Synopsis:
European equities markets closed mixed with pan-European indices ending around session best levels. France +0.5%, Italy +0.4% led the outperformers whilst Spain (1.5%) was the outlier to the downside.
In geopolitical developments, focus on ongoing tensions in the Middle East as Israeli missile ships destroyed naval vessels belonging to ousted Syrian President Assad's forces which held dozens of sea-to-sea missiles, Israel's military said, according to press reports. Power vacuum caused by the collapse Assad regime heightening concerns over regional stability amid intensification of military operations.
Quiet macro calendar in Europe. In notable political developments, German Chancellor Scholz to submit request to parliament Wednesday to hold vote of confidence. Press reports French President Macron to appoint new prime minister by Thursday. A Reuters survey showed investors only see 10% chance of the BoE cutting rates from 4.75% next week and expect stop-start pattern on policy to continue unless the labor market eases sharply. Investors betting the BoE will cut rates three times next year by a total of 75 bps compared with 150 bps by the ECB. Meanwhile in the US, November core CPI increased 0.3% m/m, same as previous three months and in line with consensus.
In corporate news, Inditex (ITX.SM) reported 9M earnings with results slightly below expectations and indicated that store and online sales in constant currency between 1-Nov and 9-Dec are +9% y/y. In DACHs, Carl Zeiss Meditec (AFX.GR) reported prelim FY earnings and issued FY24/25 guidance, whilst TUI Group (TUI1.GR) reported Q4 earnings and reaffirmed mid-term ambitions. In Belgium, Colruyt Group released its H1 earnings results and reiterated its previously communicated FY outlook. In the UK, British American Tobacco (BATS.LN) issued an FY trading update confirming that it is on track to deliver FY guidance.
On M&A front, Zalando SE (ZAL.GR) entered into a business combination agreement with ABOUT YOU Holding (YOU.GR). Zalando will offer €6.50/sh in cash as consideration for each share of ABOUT YOU tendered to the Bidder. Zalando will finance the Takeover Offer from existing cash reserves. Elsewhere, Cathay Life Insurance signed an agreement to acquire a 50 % ownership share of Ørsted's (ORSTED.DC) 583 MW Greater Changhua 4 Offshore Wind Farm for ~DKK 11.6B.
In other corporate developments, Close Brothers Group (CBG.LN) was granted permission to appeal in respect of Hopcraft case. In addition, Bloomberg reported overnight that Adidas (ADS.GR) was raided by tax authorities at locations including its headquarters, while Sonova Holding (SOON.SW) appointed Elodie Carr-Cingari as its new CFO effective July 2025.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers
Media +1.35%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.03%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.82%, Construct & Mtls +0.60%, Travel & Leisure +0.53%, Food & Beverage +0.48%, Insurance +0.42%, Technology +0.42%, Financial Svcs +0.42%, Chemicals +0.35%
Underperformers
Retail (1.70%), Utilities (0.70%), Oil & Gas (0.50%), Telecom (0.17%), Autos & Parts (0.12%), Real Estate+0.08%, Banks +0.17%, Basic Resources +0.18%, Health Care +0.21%,
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics:
Macron, Tusk to discuss Ukraine peacekeeping force (Politico )
Central Banks:
France:
UK:
UK unions slam 2.8% public sector pay proposal, warn of potential industrial action (Bloomberg)
UK IPO market now trailing frontier markets, as companies list elsewhere (Bloomberg)
More UK firms likely to fall into administration (CityAM)
Business leaders warn Reeves about impact of Budget tax rises (FT )
Germany:
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+66.4% YOU.GR (ABOUT YOU Holding €6.49, +2.59) -- Zalando SE announces €6.50/share public takeover offer for ABOUT YOU Holding SE
+15.4% AFRN.LN (Aferian £0.04, +0.01) -- trading update
+12.4% RM.LN (RM Plc £1.00, +0.11) -- trading update
+12.1% IDIA.SW (Idorsia CHF1.50, +0.16) -- Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding announces approval from China's NMPA for AGAMREE as a treatment for DMD
+12.1% EQLS.LN (Equals Group £1.35, +0.15) -- Consortium including TowerBrook agrees recommended 140p/share in cash offer (including 5p/share special dividend) for Equals Group
+9.9% SANN1.SW (Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding CHF9.89, +0.89) -- Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding announces approval from China's NMPA for AGAMREE as a treatment for DMD
+8.6% KDEV.SS (Karolinska Development SEK1.11, +0.09) -- divests 4.6M shares in portfolio company OssDsig (ODDS.SS)
+7.4% MCOV.B.SS (Medicover SEK190.80, +13.20) -- to evaluate potential separate listing in India
+7.1% PUUILO.FH (Puuilo €10.04, +0.67) -- reports Q3 EPS €0.17 vs FactSet €0.15 [5 est, €0.15-0.16]; repeats FY24 outlook
+6.4% CHRT.LN (Cohort £10.85, +0.65) -- earnings
+6.3% KTN.GR (Kontron €18.37, +1.09) -- new contract
+5.3% GBF.GR (Bilfinger €47.80, +2.40) -- buyback
+5.2% PHARM.NA (Pharming Group €0.88, +0.04) -- positive topline trial results
+5.1% BORR.NO (Borr Drilling NOK42.76, +2.06) -- contract
+5.0% FTON.SW (Feintool International Holding CHF14.70, +0.70) -- order
+5.0% KNOS.LN (Kainos Group £8.43, +0.40) -- announces re-appointment of Brendan Mooney as CEO to succeed Russell Sloan, who is stepping down with immediate effect
+3.6% INWI.SS (Inwido SEK195.90, +6.90) -- presents its roadmap to 2030; target of reaching SEK 20B in net sales -- CMD
+3.1% BAVA.DC (Bavarian Nordic A/S DKK200.10, +5.95) -- buyback launch
+2.9% FAN.LN (Volution Group £5.68, +0.16) -- plc AGM Trading Update; revenue for the four months ended 30-Nov-24 was c. £123M
+2.9% TUI1.GR (TUI Group €8.69, +0.24) -- reports Q4 underlying EPS €1.70 vs FactSet €1.78 [3 est, €1.72-1.90]
+2.8% SSPG.LN (SSP Group £1.92, +0.05) -- IPO in India of Travel Food Services
+2.7% TLX.GR (Talanx €85.95, +2.30) -- intends to increase Fy24 dividend from planned €2.50/sh to €2.70/sh; targets Fy27 dividend of €4.00/sh
+2.7% TLX.GR (Talanx €85.95, +2.30) -- sets medium-term targets; aims to accelerate earnings and dividend growth by 2027 - CMD
+2.6% HEI.GR (Heidelberg Materials €126.80, +3.20) -- Follow-up: Heidelberg Materials' joint venture Cement Australia to acquire BGC Cementitious from Buckeridge Group of Companies; terms undisclosed
+2.3% FRE.GR (Fresenius €34.67, +0.78) -- FDA issues communication on Fresenius Kabi USA emerging issue with Ivenix large volume pumps
+2.3% ZAL.GR (Zalando €35.19, +0.78) -- public takeover offer for ABOUT YOU Holding SE (YOU.GR)
confirms its medium-term outlook also for the combined group
Notable Decliners
-47.2% MB8.GR (Moberg Pharma €0.68, -0.61) -- trial did not meet primary points
-16.1% AWE.LN (Alphawave IP Group £1.16, -0.22) -- announces launch of offering of ~$150M of senior unsecured convertible bonds due 2030
-11.6% AFX.GR (Carl Zeiss Meditec €54.45, -7.15) -- reports prelim FY adj EBIT €245.9M vs FactSet €234.2M [15 est, €221-250M] and vs year-ago €362.9M; guides FY24/25
-9.2% MEDCL.FP (MedinCell €15.68, -1.58) -- reports H1 net income (€14.6M) vs year-ago (€8.2M)
-8.7% COLR.BB (Colruyt Group €37.20, -3.56) -- fitness chain Jims reaches agreement with NRG for the acquisition of 40 fitness clubs
-8.7% COLR.BB (Colruyt Group €37.20, -3.56) -- reports H1 net income excluding one-off effects €191M vs year-ago €189M; reiterates its previously communicated FY outlook
-8.6% ALCJ.FP (Crossject €1.84, -0.17) -- capital increase
-6.5% ITX.SM (Inditex €51.12, -3.58) -- reports 9M net income attributable €4.45B vs FactSet €4.55B
-6.4% HOCN.SW (HOCN Ltd. CHF0.42, -0.03) -- completes sale of HOCHDORF Swiss Nutrition Ltd
-5.2% B4B.GR (METRO €4.01, -0.22) -- earnings
-3.0% FIA1S.FH (Finnair €2.37, -0.07) -- Finnish Air Line Pilots' Assn. rejects settlement proposal by national conciliator; Finnair prepares to cancel individual flights as pilots start standby ban
-2.3% ZAP.NO (Zaptec NOK9.03, -0.22) -- Zaptec announces extension of NOK 300M overdraft facility under improved terms
-2.2% GOFORE.FH (Gofore €22.00, -0.50) -- Nov sales
-2.1% ORSTED.DC (Ørsted DKK353.00, -7.60) -- Cathay Life Insurance acquires 50 % ownership share of Ørsted's 583 MW Greater Changhua 4 Offshore Wind Farm for ~DKK 11.6B
-2.1% GXI.GR (Gerresheimer €76.10, -1.60) -- completes acquisition of Blitz LuxCo Sarl, the holding company of the Bormioli Pharma Group
-1.8% LEI.GR (Leifheit €16.25, -0.30) -- resolves extension of the share buyback program
-1.6% EVK.GR (Evonik Industries €17.65, -0.30) -- owngraded to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
-1.3% BVC.LN (BATM Advanced Communications £0.19, -0.00) -- milestone with commencement of NATlab molecular biology platform pre-clinical validation
-1.1% VOLO.SS (Volati SEK97.30, -1.10) -- Salix Group acquires Timberman A/S for SEK 310M (EV basis)
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: EVN (EVN.AV), SCHOTT Pharma (1SXP.GR), MVV Energie (MVV1.GR), Bertrandt (BDT.GR)
France: Pullup Entertainment (ALPUL.FP)
Nordics: Sectra (SECT.B.SS), Biovica International (BIOVIC.B.SS), Harboes Bryggeri (HARB.B.DC)
UK: Currys (CURY.LN), RWS Holdings (RWS.LN), Newriver Reit (NRR.LN), Benchmark Holdings (BMK.LN), De La Rue (DLAR.LN), Carr's Group (CARR.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Portugal Nov CPI +2.5% y/y vs preliminary +2.5%; (0.2%) m/m vs preliminary (0.2%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Jan 25): +$1.07 or +1.56% to $69.66
€-$ (0.0038) or (0.36%) to 1.0490
£-$ (0.0025) or (0.20%) to 1.2747
€-£ (0.0014) to 0.8230 S&P 500 +0.80%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +7.37%
DAX: +21.86%
CAC: (1.51%)
MIB: +14.33% Stoxx 600: +8.60%
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