Dec 18 ,2024
Synopsis:
Asia equities poised to open lower Thursday. Futures in Japan and Australia fell sharply, though Hong Kong edged lower. Nasdaq futures extending losses after a broad selloff in cash in the wake of the FOMC meeting. Dow index fell for the 10th straight session, just one shy of the longest down-streak since Oct 1974. VIX jumped to a four-month high. Japan ADRs skewed to losses, while Golden Dragon China index dropped 2.41%. Tech leads were weak; Big tech was mixed, 8.28% drop in Tesla (TSLA) was a standout, while SOX fell 3.85%. Micron Technology (MU) tumbled 14% after hours on weak guidance. Treasuries fell sharply with curve flattening. Dollar index up 1.2%, highest since 2022. Gold finished down 0.3% Bitcoin futures down 5.4%. WTI crude settled up 0.1%.
Broad-based capitulation in US markets reflected hawkish takeaways from FOMC as concerns of a slower pace of rate cuts next year were realized. While Fed cut rates by 25 bp as expected, guidance was tweaked in a hawkish direction and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissented, preferring to hold. Powell said rates still "meaningfully" restrictive and Fed on track for more cuts, though they would need to see more progress on inflation. SEP takeaways also leaned hawkish pointing to two 25 bp cuts next year, less than consensus expectations of total 75 bp easing. Uncertainties surrounding Trump tariff policies stand as a key risk factor.
Attention turns to BOJ with still no press leaks. Recent previews have leaned on economist consensus and market pricing which have shifted towards a January hike. BOJ sources also indicated no hurry to move. Yet US market volatility playing into the December case that had anticipated a less dovish 2025 Fed rate cut trajectory and cautioned lack of BOJ action would place further pressure on yen with USD/JPY now just short of the 155 level where economists start to see FX factor as a catalyst for a December hike. Elsewhere, China long yields rose Wednesday on the back of a report PBOC signaled further discomfort over the bond market, urging financial institutions to guard against rate risks and vowed zero tolerance for "misbehaviors."
Japan M&A talk remains elevated mostly on the back of Honda-Nissan merger reverberations. S&P analysts concurred with equity market reactions, noting a deal would be positive for Nissan (7201.JP) and negative for Honda (7267.JP) as the market essentially saw a merger as a Nissan bailout. Some attention on Renault's (RNO.FP) stake in Nissan; officials reportedly open in principle to the merger. With CFIUS review on the Nippon-US Steel deal due 23-Dec, press reported committee still has yet to reach consensus, setting the stage for President Biden to block it. Kioxia (285A.JP) debut drew subdued takeaways after a lackluster open confirmed expectations. Outlook primarily dependent on NAND prices. Macro calendar light. New Zealand Q3 GDP came in notably weaker than expectations.
Pre-open Company News:
CIA.AU -- Nippon Steel and Sojitz Corporation to form partnership with Champion for joint ownership and development of Kamistiatusset Project
4676.JP -- Fuji Media Holdings upgraded to buy from neutral at Nomura
601117.CH -- China National Chemical Engineering reports Jan-Nov new contracts CNY316.39B; StreetAccount notes the year-ago figure was CNY298.22B
1177.HK -- Sino Biopharmaceutical reports positive phase III trial results for lung cancer drugs
1318.HK -- Mao Geping Cosmetics initiated buy at China Post Securities (timing uncertain)
000963.CH -- Huadong Medicine's HDM1005 injection receives FDA phase I trial approval for treating HFpEF in obese patients
5285.MK -- SD Guthrie, EcoWorld and NS Corp to jointly develop industrial park in Negeri Sembilan with GDV MYR2.95B
533106.IN -- Oil India CFO Rupam Barua steps down, effective today
541956.IN -- IRCON International CFO B. Mugunthan steps down, repatriates to Ministry of Railways, effective 31-Dec
639.HK -- Shoucheng Holdings to sell 11.9% stake in Shougang Fushan Resources to Shougang Group at HK$2.40/share in cash
544045.IN -- FILA to sell up-to 4.57% stake in DOMS Industries
6841.JP -- Yokogawa Electric announces channel partner agreement with FálkinnÍsmar
Otsuka and Lundbeck announces full results of a Phase 3 trial of brexpiprazole in combination with sertraline for the treatment of PTSD in adults have been published in JAMA Psychiatry
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
08:00 CST: Foreign Direct Investment Y/Y; consensus
Japan:
Economic:
12:00 JST: Japan Policy Rate; consensus +0.3%
Australia:
Economic:
11:00 AEST: Consumer Inflation Expectation; consensus
Market Data:
Gold (Feb 25): ($50.50) or (1.90%) to $2602.80
WTI Crude (Jan 25): ($0.44) or (0.62%) to $70.14
$-¥: +1.13 or +0.74% to 154.6360
$-KRW: +11.86 or +0.82% to 1451.1100
A$-$: (0.01) or (2.04%) to 0.6209
$-INR: +0.26 or +0.30% to 85.1655
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.00% to 7.2855
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