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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (1.14%) to 8105.32, DAX (1.20%) to 19999.47, CAC40 (1.22%) to 7294.37, STOXX 600 (1.51%) to 506.66

Dec 19 ,2024

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets closed broadly lower Thursday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 down (1.5%). All sectors in the red, with Real Estate, Technology, Media, Financial Services and Basic Resources the biggest decliners, closing lower than (2%). European selloff was on back of US equities declining sharply on Wednesday with the S&P suffering its worst performance since early August (VIX/yen event) and its second-biggest decline of 2024. US equities were mostly higher in Thursday midday trading, though off best levels.

    • Market capitulation dovetailing big backup in bond yields and stronger US dollar, reflecting hawkish takeaways from FOMC meeting. While Fed cut rates by 25 bp as expected, SEP takeaways leaned hawkish with two 25 bp cuts forecast next year, 50 bp less than projected in December and Powell emphasized caution in further rate cuts, signaling a new policy phase.

    • Central bank policy in focus in Europe with BoE, Riksbank and Norge Bank policy decisions. BoE left policy on hold as expected, but vote split more dovish with three MPC members backing a 25 bp cut versus expectations for one dissenter. BoE's Bailey said market rate pricing for February looks reasonable. Riksbank cut rates by 25 bps and signalled potential end of easing cycle. May lower rates one more time in first half of 2025 if economic and inflation prospects hold. Norges Bank on hold and signalled rates likely to be cut in March. Judged restrictive policy still needed but time to begin easing soon approaching.

    • In other developments, German GfK consumer confidence saw slight improvement but remains at weak levels. French business survey deteriorated and coincided with political instability.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.29%), Insurance (0.55%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.77%), Utilities (0.85%), Energy(0.86%), Telecom (0.92%), Consumer Products and Services (1.20%), Autos & Parts (1.31%), Travel & Leisure (1.41%), Chemicals (1.42%), Retail (1.50%)

      • Underperformers:

        • Technology (2.44%), Real Estate (2.36%), Basic Resources (2.22%), Media (2.16%), Financial Svcs (2.05%), Ind Goods & Svcs (2.03%), Health Care (1.88%), Construct & Mtls (1.86%)

    • Macro:

      • Central banks

        • BoE MPC votes by majority of 6-3 to maintain Bank Rate at 4.75%. Three members preferred to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4.5% -- link

        • BoE's Bailey says market rate pricing for February looks reasonable -- Reuters

        • Swedish Riksbank cuts policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.5%; policy rate may be cut once again during H1 2025 -- link

        • Norges Bank keeps policy rate unchanged at 4.5%; says will most likely be reduced in March 2025 -- link

        • Czechs Pause Rate Cuts But Leave Door Open for More Easing -- Bloomberg

      • Russia

        • Putin says Russia is ready to compromise with Trump on Ukraine war -- Reuters

      • Germany

        • Scholz's Far-Right Rival Puts Germany's EU Exit on the Ballot -- Bloomberg

      • Ireland

        • Labour Party set to pull out of talks on forming next government -- Irish Times

      • Italy

        • Govt calls confidence vote over deficit-cutting 2025 budget -- Reuters

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +29.5% BIOA.B.SS (BioArctic SEK210.60, +50.20) -- global license agreement with Bristol Myers Squibb

        • +26.1% ESENSE.FH (Enersense International €2.55, +0.60) -- sale of its wind and solar power project development business to Fortum

        • +10.6% EXENS.FP (Exosens €18.64, +1.81) -- German parliament approves the 3rd option of the OCCAR night vision contract

        • +9.6% VLA.FP (Valneva €1.87, +0.18) -- exclusive license agreement with Serum Institute of India (SII)

        • +9.6% C3RY.GR (Cherry €0.75, +0.07) -- tangible successes following the organizational restructuring of its core business

        • +8.4% SRP.LN (Serco Group £1.47, +0.12) -- trading update

        • +7.0% SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding CHF6.36, +0.41) -- to acquire Crayon Group in cash and share offer with an implied value of NOK144/share

        • +6.2% VH2.GR (Friedrich Vorwerk Group €26.65, +1.60) -- contract

        • +3.6% MMK.AV (Mayr-Melnhof Karton €71.10, +2.50) -- to sell TANN Group

        • +3.6% PAAL.B.DC (Per Aarsleff Holding DKK495.50, +17.00) -- FY earnings

        • +2.5% SUS.SS (Surgical Science Sweden SEK158.10, +3.80) -- to acquire Intelligent Ultrasound (IUG.LN) for £0.13 per share

        • +1.6% DATA.LN (GlobalData £1.88, +0.03) -- new £340M debt financing facilities

        • +0.9% SVT.LN (Severn Trent £25.94, +0.24) -- UK's Ofwat publishes 2024 price review final determinations

        • +0.5% COST.LN (Costain Group £1.11, -0.00) -- successful bidder for a contract to deliver high voltage power supply systems for the HS2 project

        • +0.3% BNOR.NO (BlueNord NOK599.00, +2.00) -- update on Tyra Redevelopment project

        • +0.3% PNN.LN (Pennon Group £6.04, +0.02) -- notes Ofwat's publication of the final determination of price controls for 2025-30 period

      • Notable Decliners

        • -34.2% ALCRB.FP (Carbios €7.20, -3.16) -- postpones construction of its Longlaville PET biorecycling plant for 6 to 9 months; cites delay to non-dilutive sources of financing

        • -15.4% CAN.LN (Canal+ SA £2.26, -0.36) -- initiated outperform at Oddo; initiated neutral at UBS; initiated buy at CIC Market Colutions

        • -11.1% NETC.DC (Netcompany Group DKK344.20, -41.60) -- Carnegie Securities downgrade

        • -8.3% HAVAS.NA (Havas NV €1.55, -0.13) -- initiated outperform at Oddo; initiated buy at Canaccord Genuity, buy at CIC Market Solutions

        • -4.8% NORION.SS (Norion Bank SEK36.75, -1.80) -- initiated hold at Kepler Cheuvreux

        • -4.6% ELUX.B.SS (Electrolux SEK90.08, -4.32) -- fined €44.5M by French Competition Authority for alleged breaches of antitrust rules in France

        • -4.3% KDEV.SS (Karolinska Development SEK1.03, -0.05) -- participates in portfolio company's (Umecrine Cognition) capital raise; new Chairman

        • -4.1% CRAYN.NO (Crayon Group Holding NOK129.10, -5.50) -- SoftwareONE Holding agrees to acquire Crayon Group in cash and share offer with an implied value of NOK144/share

        • -3.5% AFRY.SS (AFRY AB SEK152.10, -5.50) -- Handelsbanken downgrade

        • -3.0% DOU.GR (Douglas €18.82, -0.59) -- FY earnings

        • -2.5% KMR.LN (Kenmare Resources £3.17, -0.08) -- updates on the renewal of Moma's mine Implementation agreement

        • -1.9% FNAC.FP (Fnac Darty €29.00, -0.55) -- not to contest the grievance notified by French competition authority in relation to an alleged vertical agreement in the domestic appliance sector

        • -1.9% CRNA.NO (Circio Holding NOK0.80, -0.01) -- final results of the warrant exercise

        • -1.8% ZURN.SW (Zurich Insurance Group CHF536.40, -9.60) -- UBS downgrade

        • -1.6% SKIS.B.SS (SkiStar SEK160.40, -2.70) -- Q1 earnings

        • -1.1% NOVN.SW (Novartis CHF0.00, -1.00) -- closes Morphosys sites; around 330 jobs affected -- WiWo

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings: HORNBACH Holding (HBH.GR)

      • CMD/events: Severn Trent (SVT.LN) investor presentation and Q&A on PR24 final determination, Nordea Bank (NDA.FI.FH) Q4 2024 pre-close call for analysts at 12:30 CET

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) November new passenger car registrations for EU + EFTA + UK (2.0%) y/y

      • Netherlands Nov Unemployment Rate 3.7% vs consensus 3.6% and prior 3.7%

      • Germany Jan GfK Consumer Confidence (21.3) vs consensus (22.5) and prior revised (23.1) from (23.3)

      • Trade Balance

        • Switzerland Nov CHF5.42B vs consensus CHF6.2B and prior revised CHF8.03B from CHF8.06B

        • Spain Oct (€3.93B) vs consensus (€4.2B) and prior (€3.30B)

      • France Dec Business Survey 97 vs consensus 96 and prior 97

      • Nov Swiss Watch Exports (3.8%) to CHF2.4B

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Jan 25): ($0.33) or (0.47%) to $70.25

      • €-$ +0.0021 or +0.20% to 1.0376

      • £-$ (0.0022) or (0.17%) to 1.2552

      • €-£ +0.0032 to 0.8267

      • S&P 500 +0.79%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +4.81%

        • DAX: +19.39%

        • CAC: (3.30%)

        • MIB: +11.41%

        • Stoxx 600: +5.78%

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