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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE +1.07% to 8268.00, DAX +0.45% to 19998.57, CAC40 +0.12% to 7389.55, STOXX 600 +0.58% to 510.55

Jan 02 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets traded higher with US equities mostly higher in Thursday midday trading, with some early momentum fading. Comes after S&P declined in four straight sessions to end 2024.

    • Asian markets mixed overnight. Greater China markets under pressure, but ASX up and Kospi little changed. Market looking to start 2025 higher after S&P declined in four straight sessions to end 2024, with tech a notable laggard. Bonds mixed. Treasuries firmer, near best levels, with some curve flattening. Gilts little changed. Bund down 5bps to 2.31%. US Dollar stronger versus euro which posted 2-yr lows, with gains also versus pound and Loonie; softer elsewhere. Oil up over 1.5%. Gold firmer. Industrial metals mostly higher.

    • Markets struggling to sustain upward momentum in first trading day of the year. Weakness in French luxury goods names weighing on broader European sentiment. Lackluster US year-end performance was discounted amid absence of specific catalysts and light volumes over the New Year holidays. Tone remained upbeat on the back of strong aggregate gains for 2024. General caution largely blamed on uncertainties surrounding Trump policies though positive fundamentals providing the basis for 2025 optimism.

    • Attention also on European energy after Russia gas exports via Ukraine pipeline ended after a transit deal expired. Note, gas prices have risen in recent weeks amid cold weather. Upward pressure might have implications for central bank policy in the region. Comments from ECB officials over the last couple of weeks suggest gradual pace of easing to continue. President Lagarde said in New Year video message released Wednesday it remains on track to hit 2% inflation target in 2025.

    • In the UK, two surveys by the London Times showed majority of economists expect four BoE rate cuts this year and a pickup in UK and global growth momentum. On the macro data front, Eurozone final manufacturing PMIs little changed from flash reading in contractionary territory. Eurozone M3 money supply growth firmer-than-expected. Loans to households and private sector positive, but momentum weak. UK Nationwide house price data beat expectations in line with recent firmness in other housing market indicators.

    • Overseas, China Caixin manufacturing PMI was softer than expected; South Korea exports surprised on the upside; Singapore GDP beat. Note, BOK Governor Rhee in a New Year's address said pace of easing needs to be flexible considering heightened political and economic uncertainty.

  • Digest:

    • Macro:

      • Central Banks:

        • Survey of economists shows BoE to cut rates four times this year (London Times)

        • ECB's Lagarde targets 2% inflation in 2025, signalling continued rate cuts (Bloomberg)

      • Germany:

        • Elon Musk likely to host German far-right leader for online chat (Reuters )

    • Peripheral markets:

      • Spain:

        • Dec new passenger car registrations 105,346 units, +28.8% y/y - ANFAC

      • Sweden:

        • Details of the Riksbank's last policy meeting on 18-Dec revealed policymakers will not wait long to cut rates again

      • Norway:

        • Nearly all new cars sold in 2024 were fully electric (Reuters )

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Dec Manufacturing PMI

        • UK 47.0 vs prelim 47.3

        • Eurozone 45.1 vs prelim 45.2

        • Germany 42.5 vs prelim 42.5

        • France 41.9 vs prelim 41.9

        • Italy 46.2 vs cons 44.8 and prior 44.5

        • Spain 53.3 vs cons 53.5 and prior 53.1

        • Norway 50.3 vs cons 51.0 and prior revised 50.5 from 50.7

        • Sweden 52.4 vs cons 52.6 and prior 53.8

      • UK Dec Nationwide House Price Index +4.7% y/y vs cons +3.8% and prior +3.7%; +0.7% m/m vs cons +0.1% and prior +1.2%

      • Eurozone Nov M3 Money Supply +3.8% y/y vs cons +3.5% and prior +3.4%

      • France Dec new passenger car registration (3.4%) y/y (comparable working days) to 183,662 vehicles -- PFA

      • Spain Dec new passenger car registrations 105,346 units, +28.8% y/y - ANFAC

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Feb 25): +$1.77 or +2.47% to $73.49 €-$ (0.0102) or (0.98%) to 1.0257 £-$ (0.0143) or (1.14%) to 1.2374 €-£ +0.0012 to 0.8290 S&P 500 +0.30%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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