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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.44%) to 8223.98, DAX (0.59%) to 19906.08, CAC40 (1.51%) to 7282.22, STOXX 600 (0.49%) to 508.19

Jan 03 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets closed lower but off worst levels. Portugal +0.6% and Greece +0.4% led outperformers whilst France (1.5%) followed by Ireland (0.8%) led underperformers.

    • Focus remained on EU gas price rallying 14% to 50 EUR/MWh, heading for third consecutive weekly gain of ~5% as global gas balance remains tight (Bloomberg). Outage at Norway's Hammerfest LNG plant, and cessation of pipeline flows via Ukraine cited by press as main factors (Reuters). However, Goldman Sachs in recent note suggested rise driven primarily by forecasted cold weather rather than recent halt in Russian gas flows through Ukraine.

    • Central bank commentary was also in the spotlight with increased optimism about achieving 2% inflation target in 2025, according to President Lagarde (Bloomberg). ECB has already implemented four quarter-point interest rate cuts, with economists expecting four more reductions by June. Riksbank minutes published Thursday suggest rate cut cycle to end by March. Economists expect UK economy to return to growth, but not enough to avoid another round of tax increases.

    • Elsewhere, the BoE Nov mortgage approval data suggests activity in the housing market may have moderated late 2024. Number of new mortgage approvals at 65.72K versus consensus 68.5K and prior 68.13K revised from 68.30K. Number still healthy and represents a small downward adjustment from October's number, which was the highest on the year and above the previous 12-month average of 60.4K.

    • In corporate news, in the UK, Tullow Oil (TLW.LN) announced successful outcome of Ghana tax arbitration after the market close yesterday. In pharma sector, GSK (GSK.LN) announced Nucala (mepolizumab) approved in China whilst AstraZeneca (AZN.LN)/Merck's (MRK) announced Lynparza China's NMPA approval. In airlines sector, Wizz Air Holdings (WIN.LN) and Ryanair (RYA.ID) both released traffic numbers for December.

    • In France, Atos Group (ATO.FP) announced that the allegations made by the ransomware group Space Bears of compromising the Atos organization are unfounded. Media reported Airbus (AIR.FP) Dec deliveries close to 120 with total 2024 deliveries about 760; article notes official order and delivery numbers are scheduled to be announced 9-Jan, but the company would have already had to disclose if its yearly delivery total had materially differed from its guidance of 770.

    • From the DACH region, Deutsche Telekom (DTE.GR) to begin first tranche of up-to-€2B 2025 buyback program today while, in Benelux, ING Groep (INGA.NA) to pay €0.161 per share on 16-Jan-25, as part of the up to €2.5B distribution to shareholders as announced on 31-Oct-24. Out of the Nordics, Qt Group (QTCOM.FH) issued profit warning.

    • On M&A front, EssilorLuxottica (EL.FP) acquired AI-driven tech startup Pulse Audition. Beijer Ref (BEIJ.B.SS) completed acquisition of Cool4U in Hungary. Encavis AG (ECV.GR) management and supervisory boards recommend acceptance of public delisting acquisition offer by KKR. CompuGroup Medical (COP.GR) issued joint reasoned statement recommending that shareholders accept CVC's voluntary public takeover offer.

    • The week ahead sees ECB Economic Bulletin, Flash Dec CPIs and Dec Services PMIs from across the region and earnings/updates from Sika (SIKA.SW), Tesco (TSCO.LN), Next (NXT.LN), Danske Bank (DANSKE.DC), Sodexo (SW.FP) and Volvo Car (VOLCAR.B.SS).

    • Note, Sweden, Greece and Finland are closed on Mon for the Epiphany holiday.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers

        • Oil & Gas +1.19%, Financial Svcs +0.35%, Utilities +0.28%, Insurance +0.19%, Banks (0.06%), Telecom (0.22%), Health Care (0.36%), Real Estate (0.38%)

      • Underperformers

        • Persnl & HHold Goods (1.75%), Autos & Parts (1.67%), Travel & Leisure (1.60%), Media (1.38%), Food & Beverage (1.34%), Basic Resources (1.27%), Chemicals (1.24%), Retail (0.80%), Technology (0.78%), Construct & Mtls (0.75%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.57%)

    • Macro/Peripheral markets:

      • EU

        • EU's energy fixation has left water crisis unchecked, top official warns - FT

        • Euro-Zone inflation points to Lagarde's unfinished task for 2025 - Bloomberg

      • ECB

        • ECB's Stournaras forecasts rates to decline to 2% by Autumn 2025 - Bloomberg

      • Gas

        • Fico's Russian gas fearmongering falls flat - Politico

        • Starved of Russian gas, industry shuts down in breakaway Moldovan region - Reuters

      • UK

        • 2024 UK retail footfall posted worst decline since 2021 - Reuters

        • UK economy faces tax hikes despite modest growth, economists warn - FT

        • Labour's pension reform plans seen having ambitious goals but flawed analysis - FT

        • UK raising windfall tax on North Sea oil 'a big mistake', Trump says - Times

      • Germany

        • Germany's foreign minister in Syria after Assad overthrow - DW

        • Olaf Scholz's business pitch to Brussels sparks election mudslinging - Politico

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +10.9% TLW.LN (Tullow Oil) -- announces successful outcome of Ghana tax arbitration

        • +1.4% SYNT.SS (SyntheticMR) -- completes acquisition of Combinostics Oy

      • Notable Decliners

        • -25.0% ALKAL.FP (Kalray) -- announces review of strategic options

        • -3.5% CNE.LN (Capricorn Energy) -- notes UK North Sea contingent payment update

        • -2.1% BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- announces decision of Federal Court of Australia to end last pending Roundup case in Australia

        • -1.9% EL.FP (EssilorLuxottica) -- acquires AI-driven tech startup Pulse Audition; terms undisclosed

        • -1.8% QTCOM.FH (Qt Group) -- profit warning: net sales growth at comparable exchange rates will be ~15-16 % in 2024 y/y vs prior guidance for 20-25% y/y increase

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Spain Dec Unemployment Change (25.3K) vs consensus (46.5K) and prior (16.0K)

      • Switzerland Dec Manufacturing PMI 48.4 vs consensus 48.3 and prior 48.5

      • Germany Dec Unemployment Change +10K vs consensus +15K and prior +7K

      • Greece Nov Unemployment Rate 9.6% vs consensus 9.8% and prior 9.8%

        • Dec Unemployment Rate 6.1% vs consensus 6.2% and prior 6.1%

      • UK

        • Nov M4 Money Supply 0.0% m/m vs consensus +0.1% and prior revised (0.2%) from (0.1%)

        • Nov Mortgage Approvals 65.72K vs consensus 68.5K and prior revised 68.13K from 68.30K - release

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Feb 25): +$0.74 or +1.01% to $73.87

      • €-$ +0.0031 or +0.30% to 1.0299

      • £-$ +0.0034 or +0.28% to 1.2416

      • €-£ +0.0002 to 0.8295

      • S&P 500 +1.00%

        • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +0.62%

        • DAX: (0.02%)

        • CAC: (1.33%)

        • MIB: (0.17%) Stoxx 600: +0.11%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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