Jan 08 ,2025
Synopsis:
Asia equities poised for a sluggish open Thursday. Futures in Japan were narrowly mixed, while Hong Kong and Australia were lower. Golden Dragon China index fell 0.67%. Japan ADRs mostly declined. US futures extending cash session momentum -- S&P firmer, Nasdaq softer. US markets closed Thursday for a day of mourning after the death of former President Carter. Tech leads were negative; Big Tech mostly lower, SOX index declined 0.96%. Treasuries mostly firmer with curve steepening; today's 30Y auction was well received. Dollar index up 0.4%; sterling weakness the big FX story amid latest fiscal worries. Gold settled up 0.3%. Bitcoin futures down 2.3%. WTI crude settled down 1.3%.
No standout developments overnight translating to limited trading conviction. Attention gravitated to FOMC minutes, which confirmed a less dovish policy stance. Inflation seen remaining steady this year with overwhelming consensus on upside risk. However, outlook contained some assumptions about economic policy changes under Trump 2.0. Somewhat contrasting individual comments from Waller, indicating more confidence in inflation moving back toward target. Tariff headlines returned to fore with CNN report Trump considering declaring national economic emergency, though did not gain much traction. Press added to indications President Biden planning more restrictions on AI chip exports.
Regional attention largely on China. Sovereign bond strength notably contrasting with developed markets reflecting pronounced bearish views on economic growth as stimulus announcements underwhelmed. Briefing on expanded consumer trade-in program Wednesday was incremental. Yuan discussions also elevated with market narrative bearish on wide US-China yield differential and concerns about increased trade frictions under the incoming Trump administration. This also played into views that authorities may allow FX depreciation to counter impacts from tariff hikes. Yet, official rhetoric has stressed yuan stability and kept latest midpoint fixings stronger than 7.2 per dollar. Deflation narrative apt to be reinforced by today's inflation data. Consensus looks for extension of sluggish readings.
A few notable data releases on the Asia calendar. In addition to China inflation, Japan nominal wage growth topped 3% though real earnings remained slightly negative. Attention ramping up after BOJ Governor Ueda said board members held off on a December rate hike as they are looking ahead to wage momentum heading into the 2025 shunto talks as well as clarity on Trump policies. Major industry groups offered bullish indications on wage hikes that were consistent with Rengo's mission statement for increases of at least 5%. Australia trade and retail sales also on deck. Follows dovish takeaways from yesterday's monthly CPI as moderation in trimmed mean inflation brought forward RBA rate cut expectations to February. Markets await pivotal quarterly CPI report later this month.
Pre-open Company News:
532478.IN -- United Breweries suspends beer supply to Telangana Beverages over unpaid dues and unchanged prices since 2019-20, effective immediately (13:50 IT)
543415.IN -- Anand Rathi Wealth to consider issuance of bonus shares in 13-Jan board meeting
8354.JP -- Fukuoka Financial Group upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
2880.TT -- Hua Nan Financial Holdings reports December revenue NT$5.14B, +18.3% y/y
600418.CH -- Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group reports December vehicle production 26,418 units vs year-ago 24,658 units
600909.CH -- HuaAn Securities appoints GM Zhao Wanli as CFO, effective immediately
Hong Kong stock connect daily turnover
2772.HK -- Zhongliang Holdings Group reports December contracted sales CNY1.49B; StreetAccount notes the year-ago figure was CNY2.18B
1405.HK -- DPC Dash provides Q4 trading update
6409.TT -- Voltronic Power Technology reports December revenue NT$1.60B, +8.0% y/y
AEONTS.TB -- AEON Thana Sinsap (Thailand) Public reports Q3 net profit attributable THB789.0M vs FactSet THB698.7M
600521.CH -- Zhejiang Huahai Pharmaceutical lists hydroxypiperidone hydrochloride tablet project for sale via public auction
002966.CH -- Bank of Suzhou holder Suzhou International Development Group to buy at least CNY300M shares within six months
On Deck:
China:
Economic:
09:30 CST: PPI NSA Y/Y; consensus (2.4%)
09:30 CST: CPI NSA Y/Y; consensus +0.05%
Japan:
Earnings:
Saizeriya (7581.JP), Seven & i (3382.JP), FAST RETAILING (9983.JP), Ichigo (2337.JP), Kewpie (2809.JP), Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530.JP), OSG Corp (6136.JP), DISCO Corp. (6146.JP), BELLSYSTEM24 Holdings (6183.JP), Onward Holdings (8016.JP), AEON Financial Service (8570.JP), AEON Mall (8905.JP), AEON DELIGHT (9787.JP)
Australia:
Economic:
11:30 AEST: Retail Sales SA M/M; consensus +0.5%
11:30 AEST: Trade Balance on Goods; consensus
Taiwan:
Economic:
16:00 TST: Export NSA Y/Y; consensus +6%
Earnings:
LARGAN Precision (3008.TT)
Market Data:
Gold (Feb 25): +$7.10 or +0.27% to $2679.50
WTI Crude (Feb 25): ($0.02) or (0.03%) to $73.30
$-¥: +0.20 or +0.12% to 158.2540
$-KRW: +1.73 or +0.12% to 1456.7000
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.34%) to 0.6211
$-INR: +0.12 or +0.15% to 85.9219
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.06% to 7.3307
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