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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.00% to 8245.49, DAX (0.12%) to 20316.75, CAC40 (0.58%) to 7446.22, STOXX 600 (0.25%) to 513.39

Jan 08 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets ended lower. Italy +0.5% and Switzerland +0.4% were the only country benchmarks closing in positive territory. Sterling underperforms versus other G10 FX majors, down more than 1% versus the dollar and 0.7% lower versus the euro (Reuters, Bloomberg). Coincides with recent backup in bond yields and weakness in short-term growth indicators, which increases likelihood the government will not meet its fiscal rules (London Times, CityAM).

    • Recent attention on report that Trump is considering declaring national emergency as justification for new universal tariffs. Overall not much surprising in report (Trump has threatened this approach before) but reflective of market interest in evolving trade theme.

    • Focus also on central bank narrative. Little change in ECB rate cut expectations with increase in Eurozone inflation in line with ECB forecasts. 100 bps worth of easing priced in, which is supportive for European equity market outlook. In politics, Germany's conservatives hardening position on migration as it tries to combat threat of AfD ahead of February election.

    • From a macroeconomic calendar perspective, German factory orders and retail sales missed. November factory orders fell 5.4% versus consensus for 0.2% drop and came after the 1.5% fall in October. Destatis highlighted that main reason for negative development was the large incoming orders in vehicle construction in October, which did not materialize in November. French consumer confidence deteriorated in December, as expected. In addition, Eurozone economic sentiment data missed and PPI increased, as expected.

    • In corporate news, GRENKE (GLJ.GR) was trading higher following its trading update. Also in Germany, TeamViewer (TMV.GR) shares were notably higher on the back of company's preliminary earnings report. In France, Dassault Aviation (AM.FP), Vallourec (VK.FP), Exosens (EXENS.FP), Trigano (TRI.FP) and Pluxee (PLX.FP) updated investors. Out of the Nordics, Dustin Group (DUST.SS), Salmar (SALM.NO) and Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS) released their most recent numbers. In the UK, Shell Plc (SHEL.LN) traded lower after it trimmed its liquefied natural gas production outlook for Q4. In other corporate developments, Galapagos (GLPG.NA) decided to separate into two publicly traded entities. Galp Energia (GALP.PL) CEO resigned. ABOUT YOU Holding (YOU.GR) Chairman decided to continue in his office as a member and Chairman of the Supervisory board for a transitional period also beyond 30-Apr-25. Of note, European defence stocks higher after Trump demands that NATO members spend 5% of GDP on defence.

    • On the speculation front, GSK Plc (GSK.LN) reportedly in talks to acquire biotech focused on rare tumor for $1B, FT reported.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers

        • Health Care +0.72%, Financial Svcs +0.34%, Media +0.26%, Banks +0.14%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.05%, Food & Beverage (0.22%)

      • Underperformers

        • Retail (1.85%), Real Estate (1.75%), Travel & Leisure (1.57%), Technology (1.44%), Oil & Gas (1.41%), Utilities (1.06%), Autos & Parts (1.03%), Chemicals (0.98%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.57%), Basic Resources (0.44%), Telecom (0.32%), Insurance (0.30%), Construct & Mtls (0.27%)

    • Macro/Peripheral markets:

      • Geopolitics

        • Can Brussels stop Elon Musk's political meddling in Europe? - FT

        • Trust in Zelenskyy declines slightly as Russia's war nears three-year mark - Euronews

        • EU dodges questions on Trump's mooted invasion of Greenland - Politico

      • UK

        • UK's long-term borrowing costs at 27-year high - London Times

        • Reeves on the verge of breaking her own fiscal rules - Telegraph

        • Bond vigilantes make another tax raid almost inevitable - Telegraph

        • Deutsche Bank warns painful sequel to the Budget may be coming - CityAM

        • Majority of people want inheritance tax cut - CityAM

      • Germany

        • Big miss in German factory orders - Destasis

        • Retail sales disappoints - Destasis

        • Growth in Germany will remain subdued in 2025 - FAZ

        • German conservatives embrace hard line on migrants to combat AfD - Bloomberg

        • Traffic light coalition paying billions in subsidies to profitable large firms - Handelsblatt

        • German chancellor hopeful says no to defence spending targets - Euractiv

        • Germany's Chancellor Front-Runner downplays Trump Nato demand - Bloomberg

      • France

        • JPMorgan sees 30%-40% chance of more credit rating pain for France - Reuters

        • Limited room for maneuver to cut spending in budget - La Tribune

      • Austria

        • In Austria's Kickl, the EU has its next Orbán - Politico

      • Ireland

        • Taoiseach nominates two additional candidates to run in Seanad elections due to contestant shortfall - Irish Times

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +15.5% PLX.FP (Pluxee €21.73, +2.92) -- Q1 revenue

        • +11.0% ILTY.IM (illimity Bank €3.76, +0.37) -- Banca Ifis launches take over offer at €3.55 per share on illimity Bank - Milano Finanza

        • +9.6% EXENS.FP (Exosens €22.54, +1.98) -- prelim FY earnings

        • +9.1% TMV.GR (TeamViewer €10.45, +0.88) -- prelim FY earnings

        • +8.3% DOV.IM (doValue €1.49, +0.11) -- reinstated buy at Kepler Cheuvreux

        • +7.9% KAMBI.SS (Kambi Group SEK116.00, +8.50) -- Kambi Group enters partnership with Stake to support the operator's growth in regulated sports betting markets, starting with its launch in Brazil

        • +7.7% DUST.SS (Dustin Group SEK4.31, +0.31) -- Q1 earnings

        • +7.1% IGP.LN (Intercede Group £1.96, +0.13) -- orders; expects FY25 results ahead of market expectations

        • +6.9% SBB.B.SS (Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden SEK4.62, +0.30) -- issues update regarding bondholder allegation

        • +6.7% VK.FP (Vallourec €18.16, +1.14) -- trading update

        • +5.4% CLAS.B.SS (Clas Ohlson SEK214.60, +11.00) -- Dec sales

        • +5.3% BCP.PL (Banco Comercial Portugues €0.49, +0.02) -- JPMorgan upgrade

        • +4.9% RHM.GR (Rheinmetall €647.40, +30.20) -- FY guidance

        • +4.2% LIKE.LN (Likewise Group £0.20, +0.01) -- trading update

        • +4.0% AM.FP (Dassault Aviation €204.40, +7.90) -- FY deliveries

        • +3.1% CBRAIN.DC (cBrain DKK183.80, +5.60) -- ABG Sundal Collier upgrade

        • +2.8% NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk DKK619.50, +16.70) -- Valo Health and Novo Nordisk expand collaboration to discover and develop novel treatments for cardiometabolic diseases

        • +2.4% FYB.GR (Formycon €60.90, +1.40) -- Formycon, Fresenius Kabi receive Health Canada's approval for FYB202/Otulfi (ustekinumab), a biosimilar to Stelara

        • +2.2% PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding CHF1,296.50, +28.00) -- Deutsche Bank upgrade

        • +2.2% TPT.LN (Topps Tiles £0.38, +0.01) -- trading update; CEO to retire

        • +2.0% UCG.IM (UniCredit €40.45, +0.80) -- reinstated buy at BofA

        • +1.5% EVD.GR (CTS Eventim €86.60, +1.30) -- Redburn Atlantic upgrade

        • +1.3% EQT.SS (EQT AB SEK317.70, +4.10) -- BofA and Deutsche Bank upgrades

        • +1.1% VCP.LN (Victoria £1.14, +0.01) -- trading update

        • +1.0% SEYE.SS (Smart Eye SEK63.60, +0.60) -- strategic collaboration with Greater Than

      • Notable Decliners

        • -33.4% ALBPS.FP (Biophytis €0.28, -0.14) -- new cash contribution and debt conversion

        • -16.5% XSPRAY.SS (Xspray Pharma SEK36.70, -7.25) -- expects to submit its updated Dasynoc application to FDA in March/April 2025

        • -8.3% SF.SS (Stillfront Group SEK7.45, -0.68) -- CFO to step down

        • -7.2% ASHM.LN (Ashmore Group £1.45, -0.11) -- Jefferies downgrade

        • -7.2% BINV.SS (BioInvent International SEK36.05, -2.80) -- trial data

        • -6.4% J1X.GR (Himalaya Shipping €4.48, -0.31) -- Dec commercial and cash distribution update

        • -5.7% ENR.GR (Siemens Energy €50.66, -3.08) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade

        • -5.3% SYDB.DC (Sydbank DKK369.40, -20.60) -- Nordea downgrade

        • -3.3% PAT.GR (Patrizia €7.25, -0.25) -- Oddo downgrade

        • -3.2% GABR.DC (Gabriel Holding DKK182.00, -6.00) -- notes 2023/24 financial year negatively impacted by irregularities in the group's Mexican FurnMaster company; previous years' figures corrected

        • -3.1% RILBA.DC (Ringkjøbing Landbobank DKK1,188.00, -38.00) -- Nordea downgrade

        • -2.9% NOS.PL (NOS SGPS €3.29, -0.10) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade

        • -2.8% TRI.FP (Trigano €120.90, -3.50) -- Q1 revenue

        • -2.7% NN.NA (NN Group €41.78, -1.14) -- Morgan Stanley downgrade

        • -2.3% IDEX.NO (IDEX Biometrics NOK0.12, -0.00) -- order

        • -2.0% AMUN.FP (Amundi €61.70, -1.25) -- BofA downgrade

        • -1.5% SHEL.LN (Shell Plc £25.78, -0.41) -- Q4 update

        • -1.1% SVEAF.SS (Sveafastigheter SEK34.50, -0.40) -- CFO Martina Lous-Christensen to leave the company today

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • ABOUT YOU Holding (YOU.GR), TFF Group (TFF.FP)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Germany

        • Nov Factory Orders (5.4%) m/m vs consensus (0.3%) and prior (1.5%)

        • Germany Nov Retail Sales +2.5% y/y vs consensus +1.9% and prior +1.0%

      • France

        • Dec Consumer Confidence 89 vs consensus 89 and prior 90

        • France Nov Trade Balance (€7.1B) vs consensus (€7.0B) and prior revised (7.5B) from (€7.7B)

      • Eurozone

        • Dec Economic Sentiment Indicator 93.7 vs consensus 95.6 and prior revised 95.6 from 95.8

        • Nov PPI (1.2%) y/y vs consensus (1.3%) and prior revised (3.3%) from (3.2%); +1.6% m/m vs consensus +1.5% and prior +0.4%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Feb 25): ($0.81) or (1.09%) to $73.44

      • €-$ (0.0038) or (0.37%) to 1.0304

      • £-$ (0.0126) or (1.01%) to 1.2352

      • €-£ +0.0055 to 0.8343

      • S&P 500 +0.00%

        • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +0.89%

        • DAX: +2.05% CAC: +0.89%

        • MIB: +2.56%

        • Stoxx 600: +1.14%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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