Jan 14 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open higher whilst Asia equities trade mixed Tuesday: Japan's Nikkei and Topix lower as they catch up with Monday's market downturn. Some modest losses in Singapore and other Southeast Asia markets. Gains elsewhere with mainland China boards leading and Hong Kong also sharply higher. US futures higher.
Inflationary implications of Trump tariffs partly attributable for recent bond yield backup. However, Bloomberg sources noted members of his economic team planning gradual implementation of tariffs over several months to boost negotiating leverage and avoid inflation spike. While potential for more targeted approach a positive for market sentiment, there remains great deal of uncertainty with Trump recently denying Washington Post story about tariffs covering only critical imports.
On today's agenda, World Bank to release semiannual global economic prospects report and OPEC publishes its latest monthly report. EU's Virkkunen attends (as well as several European leaders and NATO's Rutte) the Summit of the Baltic Sea NATO countries. Together for Catalonia (Junts) leader Turull speech at 9:00CET at event (livestream) hosted by Nueva Economía Fórum, also hosting at the same time event (livestream) with Popular Party's Feijóo. France's PM Bayrou due to announce his government's program; La France Insoumise (LFI) leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has vowed to table a motion of no confidence. In Germany, Chancellor Scholz due to hold townhall meeting in the evening in Chemnitz. In UK, The Industry and Regulators Parliamentary Committee will begin its inquiry into the energy grid and grid connections by hearing from Energy UK. In Norway, Minister of Energy Aasland speaks ~13:10CET at the Oil and Energy Policy Seminar (through Wed), event sees senior execs from several companies speaking. Elsewhere, there's the Central and Eastern European Forum (through Wed), Fitch Ratings event Credit Outlook 2025 Paris, PIME Energy Storage Summit (through Wed) and Solar Energy Expo (through Thu).
In central banks, Riksbank's Bunge participates at 8:00CET in the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce online event "Spaning Samtiden", ECB's Lane speech at 8:35CET at joint ECB/BoF/HKMA conf on "Europe, Asia and the Changing Global Economy" and BOE's Breeden speech at 8:10GMT at Financial Stability Law Forum 'Financial stability and too big too fail'. Austria central bank's Holzmann speech ay 9:00CET at Invisso (through Wed), the banks head of economic analysis and research Birgit Niessner, speech ay 11:30CET at event hosted by OMFIF.
Macro data out includes Netherlands Dec CPI +4.1% y/y vs preliminary +4.1% and Finland Dec CPI +0.7% y/y vs consensus +1.0% and prior +1.0%. Also due today, Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment.
On corporate front, CNBC sources said Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) partnering with Nucor (NUE) in potential bid for X after White House blocked Nippon Steel acquisition offer. TikTok denied Bloomberg source report China weighing option of allowing Elon Musk to acquire its US operations. NVDA featured in overnight news after Biden administration unveiled new export curbs on its AI chips while The Information also reported Blackwell-equipped racks hampered by overheating and glitches, leading major customers to cut some orders.
In European earnings news, Temenos (TEMN.SW) reported preliminary FY24 earnings and indicated that it will publish guidance for FY25 on 18-Feb. Also in Switzerland, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli (LISN.SW) issued preliminary FY revenue and guidance for FY24/25, whilst Suedzucker (SZU.GR) released Q3 earnings and confirmed its FY forecast. In Austria, OMV (OMV.AV) release its Q4 trading updated indicating to a total hydrocarbon production of 337 kboe/d vs year-ago 364 kboe/d. In Italy, Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IM) reported preliminary FY/Q4 revenue and indicated to a positive start for 2025. Other notable companies due to update investors today includes: Games Workshop (GAW.LN), Volkswagen (VOW3.GR) 2024 deliveries, Partners Group (PGHN.SW), JD Sports Fashion (JD.LN), Persimmon (PSN.LN), and Ocado (OCDO.LN).
Politics/Macro/World News
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DAHCs
SOON.SW (Sonova Holding) -- reaffirms FY guidance
TEMN.SW (Temenos) -- reports preliminary FY24 EBIT $354.6M vs FactSet $336.3M; to issue FY25 guidance on 18-Feb
LISN.SW (Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli) -- reports prelim FY revenue CHF5.47B vs consensus CHF5.48B; guides FY24 and FY25
UBXN.SW (u-blox Holding) -- reaffirms Q4 guidance; to focus on locate business and phase out cellular, sees related charges
TIBN.SW (Bergbahnen Engelberg-Trübsee-Titlis) -- reports preliminary FY net income CHF15.0M vs FactSet CHF16.5M
SZU.GR (Suedzucker) -- reports Q3 EPS (€0.62) vs year-ago €0.80; confirms FY forecast
OMV.AV (OMV) -- Q4 trading update: total hydrocarbon production of 337 kboe/d vs year-ago 364 kboe/d
AGR.AV (Agrana Beteiligungs) -- reports 9M net income €14.5M vs year-ago €78.1M
Southern Europe
BC.IM (Brunello Cucinelli) -- reports preliminary FY revenue €1.28B vs FactSet €1.27B [13 est, €1.26-1.28B] (post EU close 13-Jan)
ALM.SM (Almirall) -- updates on its business strategy and outlook 2025 at the JPMorgan HealthCare Conference
Nordics
EMGS.NO (Electromagnetic Geoservices) -- provides vessel activity and multi-client sales update for Q4
Also due to report today includes:
Earnings:
Southern Europe: Unieuro (UNIR.IM)
UK: Games Workshop (GAW.LN), Knights Group (KGH.LN), Ramsdens (RFX.LN)
Trading Update: Volkswagen (VOW3.GR) 2024 deliveries, Partners Group (PGHN.SW), JD Sports Fashion (JD.LN), Persimmon (PSN.LN), Ocado (OCDO.LN), Grafton (GFTU.LN), Esker (ALESK.FP), Cairn Homes (C5H.ID), Integrafin Holdings (IHP.LN), Hunting (HTG.LN), MJ Gleeson (GLE.LN), The Gym Group (GYM.LN), Robert Walters (RWA.LN)
Traffic: Flughafen Zurich (FHZN.SW)
M&A
BATS.LN (British American Tobacco) -- Holder Reinter Investments to place ~2% stake in British American Tobacco -- Bloomberg
HHH (Howard Hughes Holdings) -- confirms receipt of unsolicited acquisition proposal from Pershing Square
UN0.GR (Uniper) -- German government weighing options with Uniper - Reuters (13-Jan, 10:42 ET/16:42 CET)
HUM.LN (Hummingbird Resources) -- publishes document in connection with previously announced offer by Nioko Resources
TFBANK.SS (TF Bank) -- notes financial effects as result of transfer of majority stake in subsidiary Rediem Capital AB
CNR.LN (Condor Gold Plc) -- Condor Gold announces court sanctions scheme of arrangement to implement acquisition by Metals Exploration
China evaluating option that involves Elon Musk acquiring US operations of TikTok if it fails to avoid ban - Bloomberg
TikTok denies Bloomberg report that China is evaluating option that involves Elon Musk acquiring US operations of TikTok if it fails to avoid ban - Variety
Klarna seeking buyers for US portfolio of "pay in four" loans as it unlocks growth capital ahead of New York IPO - FT
Healthcare
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- to prioritize deleveraging over pharma dealmaking - Bloomberg
4523.JP (Eisai) -- FDA accepts Eisai's LEQEMB BLA for subcutaneous maintenance dosing for treatment of early Alzheimer's disease
13.HK (Hutchmed) -- NMPA approves supplemental NDA for Hutchmed's ORPATHYS for NSCLC, gives full approval for previously treated patients
GALD.SW (Galderma Group) -- Galderma Premieres Positive Interim Results Demonstrating the Efficacy of Its Injectable Aesthetics Portfolio in Addressing Facial Volume Loss as a Result of Medication-driven Weight Loss
SANN.SW (Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding) -- Santhera Receives Positive Recommendation from Scottish Medicines Consortium for the Use of AGAMREE (Vamorolone) in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Patients in NHS Scotland
ARJO.B.SS (Arjo) -- president & CEO Joacim Lindoff leaving
ALBPS.FP (Biophytis) -- enters exclusive negotiations with Chinese pharmaceutical company to license BIO101
IRLAB.A.SS (IRLAB Therapeutics) -- The last patient has now completed the full treatment period in IRLAB's Phase IIb study with pirepemat
Other
CLN.SW (Clariant) -- rejects BASF's allegations against four companies related to the 2020 competition law infringement
TEL2.B.SS (Tele2) -- COO Kim Haberg to leave company; effective immediately
Anti-DE&I shareholder proposals on the rise; climate still in focus in upcoming AGMs (13-Jan)
Key rating changes
Upgrades
EPI.A.SS (Epiroc) -- to buy from hold at Pareto
KRZ.ID (Kerry Group) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
SAF.FP (Safran) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
ATCO.A.SS (Atlas Copco) -- to buy from hold at DnB Markets
EPI.A.SS (Epiroc) -- to buy from hold at DnB Markets
MBG.GR (Mercedes-Benz Group) -- to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs
INF.LN (Informa) -- to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
SINCH.SS (Sinch) -- to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley
WLN.FP (Worldline) -- to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley
WKP.LN (Workspace Group) -- to buy from add at Peel Hunt
BBOX.LN (Tritax Big Box REIT) -- to add from hold at Peel Hunt
HMSO.LN (Hammerson) -- to add from hold at Peel Hunt
ENTRA.NO (Entra ASA) -- to buy from neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen
MRL.SM (MERLIN Properties SOCIMI) -- to buy from neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen
FABG.SS (Fabege) -- to neutral from sell at Van Lanschot Kempen
PHP.LN (Primary Health Properties) -- to neutral from sell at Van Lanschot Kempen
Downgrades
MONC.IM (Moncler) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
SAND.SS (Sandvik) -- to hold from buy at DnB Markets
TE.FP (Technip Energies) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
MEL.SM (Melia Hotels International) -- to sell from buy at UBS
NCAB.SS (NCAB Group) -- to hold from buy at Pareto
PIRC.IM (Pirelli & C.) -- to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs
PAH3.GR (Porsche Automobil Holding SE) -- to sell from buy at Goldman Sachs
COP.GR (CompuGroup Medical) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
TRST.LN (Trustpilot Group) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
WISE.LN (Wise Plc) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
NEXI.IM (Nexi SpA) -- to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
TOWN.LN (Town Centre Securities) -- to add from buy at Peel Hunt
CLI.LN (CLS Holdings) -- to hold from add at Peel Hunt
COFB.BB (Cofinimmo) -- to neutral from buy at Van Lanschot Kempen
ICAD.FP (Icade) -- to neutral from buy at Van Lanschot Kempen
LAND.LN (Land Securities Group) -- to neutral from buy at Van Lanschot Kempen
RETS.BB (Retail Estates) -- to neutral from buy at Van Lanschot Kempen
AGR.LN (Assura) -- to sell from neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen
CAI.AV (CA Immobilien Anlagen) -- to sell from neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen
LEG.GR (LEG Immobilien) -- to sell from neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen
Initiations
EVD.GR (CTS Eventim) -- buy at UBS
Data
Nikkei (1.83%) to 38474.30
Hang Seng +1.85% to 19222.79
Shanghai Composite +2.11% to 3227.47
S&P futures +18.3 vs prior close of 5874.5
€-$ +0.0001 or +0.01% to 1.0246
$-¥ +0.15 or +0.10% to 157.63
€-¥ +0.20 or +0.12% to 161.52
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