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StreetAccount Summary - European Market Recap: FTSE 100 +1.21% to 8301.13, DAX +1.50% to 20574.68, CAC40 +0.69% to 7474.59, STOXX 600 +1.33% to 515.02

Jan 15 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets opened higher, with pan-European indices then gradually extending gains, before ratcheting higher on Wall Street's open and continuing to extend advances, before a modest paring of gains into the close.

    • Denmark, Italy both +1.5% join the DAX in leading outperformers, whilst Ireland +0.2% and Belgium, Switzerland both +0.7% lead underperformers.

    • In central banks, ECB's Lane gave a fireside chat at Global Macro conf of Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong, ECB's de Guindos spoke at 15th Spain Investors Day (through Thu and also includes several company CEOs) and Riksbank's Bunge discussed the economic situation, financial stability and macroprudential measures at Bopol Live, and Thedéen discussed the economic situation and current monetary policy at an event organised by Swedbank. Also, Bank of France's Villeroy addressed the Senate Finance Committee, the same day Finance Bill and the review of session amendments on the "Recovery Plan" and "Investing for France in 2030" continues, Croatia Central Bank's Vujcic was a panellist at Invisso and BoE's Benjamin delivering a speech at TheCityUK on "The Future of Stress Testing" and Taylor gives a speech at Leeds Univ. on "Inflation Dynamics and Outlook"

    • World Economic Forum published its annual global risks report

    • IEA published its latest monthly oil market report in which it cuts 2025 global oil supply growth forecast by 0.1M bpd to 1.8M bpd and sees global oil demand growth of 1.05M bpd as the economic outlook improves marginally.

    • Amongst the economic data release, there was a surprise fall in UK inflation, which boosted interest rate cut hopes, whilst the German economy posts second consecutive year of contraction in 2024 (Stats office). Also saw Dec final CPI readings for France, Spain and Sweden, Eurozone Nov industrial production as well as Norway Dec trade balance

    • NATO defense chiefs meet (through Thu). In Norway, the Air Force's planned flight of the F-35 fighter jets with sustainable aviation fuel was postponed due to bad weather (press release).

    • In UK parliamentary business, there was weekly PMQs, whilst committee topics included National Infrastructure Commission, FCA and PRA's secondary competitiveness and growth objective includes Phoenix Group (PHNX.LN) CEO Briggs, Treasury Minister to give evidence to MPs on plans for HMRC as well as how can the housing crisis be addressed without exacerbating the nature and climate crises? and Work of the Dept. for Energy Security and Net Zero (Rt Hon Ed Miliband)

    • EU Parliament President Metsola presided over the Conference of Presidents meeting

    • In Germany, Chancellor Scholz attended German Trade Union Confederation (DGB) meeting, whilst VDMA and German Wind Energy Assn hosted a press conf on onshore wind energy expansion, announcing 2024 was a record year for onshore wind energy: A total of 2,405 onshore wind turbines (WEA) with an output of 14,056 MW were newly approved in Germany. In the Federal Network Agency's tenders, 1,890 wind turbines with 10,996 MW were awarded contracts.

    • In Greece, IOBE hosted an event title "European Economies and New Challenges" (livestream), speakers include CEBR's Vicky Price and DIW's Alexander Kritikos.

    • Updates from retailers and financials dominated the corporate news flow and included Jeronimo Martins (JMT.PL) Q4 revenue €8.70B vs StreetAccount €8.62B, Currys (CURY.LN) trading update and Diploma (DPLM.LN) trading update among the former, and Brooks MacDonald Group (BRK.LN), Ashmore Group (ASHM.LN), Just Group (JUST.LN) and Partners Group (PGHN.SW) reports AuM of $152B at end of 2024 vs StreetAccount $156.2B. Also releasing earnings were Hays (HAS.LN), International Distribution Services (IDS.LN), Experian (EXPN.LN), Galliford Try Holdings (GFRD.LN) and Bossard Holding (BOSN.SW)

    • M&A saw Fortress Investment (CF Exedra) announces increased and final recommended offer of 325p/share in cash for Loungers (LGRS.LN) and Boréal Bidco reopened offer for Esker (ALESK.FP) from 17 to 30-Jan.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Real Estate +3.34%, Retail +2.74%, Financial Svcs +2.04%, Autos & Parts +1.94%, Insurance +1.92%, Banks +1.84%, Utilities +1.83%, Chemicals +1.77%, Construct & Mtls +1.74%, Telecom +1.52%, Health Care +1.38%

      • Underperformers:

        • Persnl & HHold Goods (0.04%), Food & Beverage +0.37%, Travel & Leisure +0.87%, Basic Resources +0.97%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.13%, Oil & Gas +1.15%, Media +1.16%, Technology +1.17%

    • Macro/Peripheral markets:

      • Central Banks

        • ECB's Lane says inflation to ease in 2025 but rate path uncertain - Reuters

        • ECB's de Guindos speech

        • Riksbank's Bunge wants the Riksbank to lower the key interest rate again, in the near future - Dagens Nyheter; speech

        • Riksbank's Thedéen speech

        • Bank of France's Villeroy says ECB should continue to cut interest rates to reach 2% by the summer - Bloomberg; prepared remarks at hearing before the Senate Finance Committee - release

      • France:

        • PM Bayrou reopens pension reform talks in bid for budget support but Socialist Party reiterated threat of backing no-confidence vote - Bloomberg; Reuters

        • Minister of Public Accounts, Amélie de Montchalin, confirmed reports mentioning €32B in savings and €21B in revenue increases in 2025 budget - La Tribune

      • UK:

        • Confidence across all UK business sectors has plunged, as concerns over last year's Budget tax measures weigh heavily on the economy - ICAEW's Business Confidence Monitor Q4 of 2024

        • Nov house price index - HM Land Registry release

      • Ukraine:

        • Polish PM Tusk vows to use EU presidency to push forward with Ukraine's membership quest - Independent

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +23.0% FDEV.LN (Frontier Developments) -- H1 EPS 11.1p vs year-ago (85.7p); remains confident of delivering FY25 revenue and profitability in line with expectations

        • +20.1% GNS.LN (Genus) -- H1 trading update: expects to report Group adjusted PBT of at least £35M in actual currency, which is ahead of expectations

        • +16.7% SUS.SS (Surgical Science Sweden) -- publishes Scheme Document in relation to the recommended offer to acquire Intelligent Ultrasound

        • +14.7% VTY.LN (Vistry Group) -- FY trading update: expects Group adj. profit before tax of ~ £250M, in-line with the revised company guidance announced in Dec

        • +14.4% XAR.LN (Xaar) -- appoints interim CFO Paul James as permanent CFO

        • +13.5% HKFOODS.FH (HKFoods) -- guides 2024 comparable EBIT from cont. ops €27˗28M vs prior guidance €22˗25M, FactSet €23.60M

        • +10.9% CURY.LN (Currys) -- Trading Update: UK & Ireland "peak" LFL revenue +2%; guides adj PBT to be £145-155M and announce final divi

        • +10.5% TIGO.SS (Millicom International Cellular) -- new shareholder remuneration policy

        • +9.7% BRK.LN (Brooks MacDonald Group) -- FUM £17.9B as of 31-Dec vs £17.9B as of 30-Sep; anticipates FY performance will be in line with its expectations and expects return to positive net flows later in the year

        • +7.4% CLNX.SM (Cellnex Telecom) -- share buyback of up to €800M

        • +7.3% AG1.GR (Auto1 Group) -- buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs

        • +6.9% JUST.LN (Just Group) -- FY business update: Total retirement income sales £6.41B vs year-ago £4.31B

        • +6.8% MAB.LN (Mitchells & Butlers) -- Q1 trading update: LFL sales +3.9%

        • +6.6% FII.FP (Lisi) -- buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux

        • +6.3% ASHM.LN (Ashmore Group) -- Q2 estimated AUM £48.8B vs prior £51.8B

        • +5.9% IVG.IM (Iveco Group) -- buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux

        • +5.8% DPLM.LN (Diploma) -- Q1 trading update; organic revenue growth +7%; FY guidance unchanged

        • +5.8% GFRD.LN (Galliford Try Holdings) -- H1 Trading Statement: FY revenue and PBT expected to be at the upper end of current market expectations

        • +5.5% ORSTED.DC (Ørsted) -- buy from hold at Arctic Securities

        • +5.0% NEM.GR (Nemetschek) -- buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux

        • +4.8% PSN.LN (Persimmon) -- buy from hold at Peel Hunt

        • +4.8% NDX1.GR (Nordex) -- FY24 order intake of 8.3 GW

        • +4.7% UBI.FP (Ubisoft Entertainment) -- Tencent Holdings, Guillemot family look to form new venture - Bloomberg

        • +4.6% LGRS.LN (Loungers) -- Fortress Investment (CF Exedra) announces increased and final recommended offer of 325p/share in cash

        • +4.2% FUM.LN (Futura Medical) -- results of the WSD4000 Home User study

        • +4.1% NEX.FP (Nexans) -- project agreement for LanWin 2, valued at €1B

        • +3.7% LMP.LN (LondonMetric Property) -- sold ten non-core properties for total consideration of £74.2M; has acquired seven properties for £50.1M

        • +3.7% DCC.LN (DCC) -- outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets

        • +3.5% CON.GR (Continental) -- buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux

        • +3.1% ALHGR.FP (Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies) -- extends licensing agreement in US

        • +3.1% UN0.GR (Uniper) -- Equinor, UAE's Taqa reportedly among suitors examining potential transaction with Uniper -- Bloomberg

        • +3.0% HAS.LN (Hays) -- Trading Update: Q2 LFL Net Fee Growth (12%) vs consensus (13%), expects H1 pre-exceptional operating profit towards the lower end of the consensus range

        • +2.8% BAKKA.NO (Bakkafrost) -- to buy from hold at Pareto

        • +2.3% BVI.FP (Bureau Veritas) -- confirms media reports that it is in discussions with SGS regarding potential business combination

          • -6.4% SGSN.SW (SGS)

        • +2.1% KAP.LN (Kazatomprom) -- approval of its updated Development Strategy for 2025-34

          • On earnings/updates: ALESK.FP (Esker), IDS.LN (International Distribution Services), JMT.PL (Jeronimo Martins), NXQ.LN (Nexteq), FSTA.LN (Fuller, Smith & Turner) and reversing initial declines NN.NA (NN Group)

      • Notable Decliners

        • -13.0% CINIS.SS (Cinis Fertilizer) -- prelim. Q4 revenue SEK25M vs FactSet SEK60.0M [2 est, SEK39.0-81M]; expects Q4 EBITDA margin to be negative

        • -7.8% BNN.GR (BRAIN Biotech) -- FY adj. EBITDA (€0.4M) vs FactSet €5.6M [4 est, €0.2-17.9M]

        • -7.5% XVIVO.SS (Xvivo Perfusion) -- hold from buy at Pareto

        • -4.4% FDJ.FP (La Francaise des Jeux) -- reduce from hold at HSBC

        • -4.1% KOMPL.NO (Komplett) -- CEO to step down

        • -3.8% FING.B.SS (Fingerprint Cards) -- prelim. Q4 adj. EBITDA (SEK29.0M) vs year-ago (SEK46.3M); shares reversed initial gains

        • -2.4% TRMD.A.DC (TORM) -- hold from buy at ABG Sundal Collier

        • -2.3% KCC.NO (Klaveness Combination Carriers) -- Q4 Fleet average TCE earnings $28,527/day vs guidance $29,500-31,000/day

        • -2.1% HP3A.GR (Ringmetall) -- acquires stake in innovative packaging start-up Evopack; shares reversed initial gains

          • On earnings/updates: HAUTO.NO (Höegh Autoliners), PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding), BOSN.SW (Bossard Holding), FHZN.SW (Flughafen Zuerich), EXPN.LN (Experian), VIC.LN (Victorian Plumbing Group), GTLY.LN (Gateley (Holdings))

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings: Safestore Holdings (SAFE.LN)

      • Trading Update:

        • Benelux: Fastned (FAST.NA)

        • DACHs: Compagnie Financiere Richemont (CFR.SW), Geberit (GEBN.SW)

        • France: Virbac (VIRP.FP), Pullup Entertainment (ALPUL.FP)

        • UK: Wise (WISE.LN), Taylor Wimpey (TW.LN), Harbour Energy (HBR.LN), Dunelm (DNLM.LN), Deliveroo (ROO.LN), Rathbones (RAT.LN), Trustpilot (TRST.LN)

      • Traffic: VINCI (DG.FP), Fraport AG Frankfurt Airport Services Worldwide (FRA.GR)

      • Production: Antofagasta (ANTO.LN)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • UK Dec CPI +2.5% y/y vs consensus +2.6%, prior +2.6%; +0.3% m/m vs consensus +0.4%, prior +0.1%

        • Core +3.2% y/y vs consensus +3.4%, prior +3.5%

      • UK Dec RPI +3.4% y/y vs consensus +3.8%, prior +3.6%; +0.3% m/m vs consensus +0.7%, prior +0.1%

      • UK Dec Output PPI +0.1% y/y vs consensus 0.0%, prior revised (0.5%) from (0.6%); +0.1% m/m vs consensus +0.1%, prior revised +0.4% from +0.3%

      • UK Dec Input PPI (1.5%) y/y vs consensus (1.3%), prior revised (2.1%) from (1.9%); 0.1% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior 0.0%

      • Eurozone Nov industrial production (1.9%) y/y vs consensus (1.9%), prior revised (1.1%) from (1.2%); +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.3%, prior revised +0.2% from 0.0%

      • Spain Dec CPI +2.8% y/y vs preliminary +2.8%; +0.5% m/m vs preliminary +0.4%

        • EU Harmonised +2.8% y/y vs preliminary +2.8%; +0.4% m/m vs preliminary +0.4%

      • France Dec CPI +1.3% m/m vs preliminary +1.3%; +0.2% m/m vs preliminary +0.2%

        • EU Harmonised +1.8% y/y vs preliminary +1.8%; +0.2% m/m vs preliminary +0.2%

      • Germany 2024 GDP (0.2%) y/y vs cons (0.2%), prior (0.3%);

        • Q4 preliminary GDP (0.1%) q/q

      • Sweden Dec CPI +0.8% y/y vs preliminary +0.8%; 0.0% m/m vs preliminary 0.0%

      • Norway Dec trade balance NOK83.2B vs consensus NOK58.6B, prior NOK74.2B

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Feb 25): +$2.10 or +2.71% to $79.60

      • €-$ (0.0031) or (0.30%) to 1.0279

      • £-$ (0.0006) or (0.05%) to 1.2211

      • €-£ (0.0021) to 0.8418

      • S&P 500 +1.39%

      • Performance year-to-date:

        • FTSE 100: +1.57%

        • DAX: +3.34%

        • CAC: +1.27%

        • MIB: +4.27%

        • Stoxx 600: +1.46%

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