Jan 16 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open flat to higher amidst Asian equities strengthening Thursday. Broad-based gains on regional benchmarks though China off best levels. Taiwan outperforming with TSMC rallying ahead of earnings. Japan lagging amid yen strength. S&P 500 futures flat following post-CPI rally on US markets. Treasury yields steady while Australian yields remain lower following jobs data. JGB yields down 1-2 bp. Crude strengthening to Aug-2024 highs. Gold and copper adding to earlier gains. Dollar extending losses against other currencies, weakest against yen. Bitcoin fluctuating narrowly around $100K.
In central banks, Norges Bank publishes at 10:00CET its survey of bank lending Q4 of 2024, BoE releasing its Q4 of 2024 Credit Conditions Survey at 9:30GMT and ECB publishing MPC minutes at 13:30CET. Poland's central bank announces interest rate decision. Event title ''Europe challenged by Trump 2.0'' at 11:00CET at event hosted by Bank of France's foreign trade and competitiveness research network and CEPII, Bundesbank's Köhler-Geib speech at 14:05CET title: "Emission data - a mission for statistics" at European Statistical Forum and Bank of Italy's Panetta speaks at 21:00CET at the meeting "Economy and Peace: a possible alliance".
Further on today's agenda, EU's Ribera participates in event hosted by Bruegel. Elsewhere, Ammonia Europe hosts event title Unlocking ammonia's potential for Europe's clean and resilient economy, whilst Assn of European Automobile Manufacturers (ACEA) new president Ola Källenius hosts press conf at 10:00CET. Fitch Ratings event Credit Outlook 2025 London.
Macroeconomic updates include: Germany/Ireland Dec CPI, Eurozone/UK Nov Trade Balance, UK Nov Industrial Production/GDP/Construction Output
In corporate news, Zalando (ZAL.GR) reported yesterday after the EU close preliminary FY adj. EBIT ~€510M vs prior guidance €440-€480M and FactSet €369.0M. Also in the DACH region, Richemont (CFR.SW) reports Q3 sales €6.15B vs consensus €5.60B. Geberit (GEBN.SW) reports preliminary Q4 revenue CHF685M vs StreetAccount CHF684.0M; expects FY EBITDA margin slightly below the previous year. Aryzta (ARYN.SW) said it expects to achieve all its 2025 mid-term targets one year ahead of schedule; new CEO will provide fresh targets at next mid-term plan in May. in Southern Europe, Repsol (REP.SM) reports preliminary Q4 production update whilst Stellantis (STLAM.IM) reports Q4 consolidated shipment estimates of ~1.40M units; (9%) y/y. In France, Renault Group (RNO.FP) is out with FY24 car sales ~2.26M; +1.3% y/y.
Politics/Macro/World News
How Trump's presidency could spur migration to Europe - FT
ECB's Centeno says inflation in the Euro-Area is under control - Bloomberg
UK Dec house price balance 28% vs consensus 27% and prior revised 24% from 25% - RICS
BOE's Taylor Calls for 4-6 Cuts to Prevent Hard Landing for UK - Telegraph
Gaza ceasefire deal reached by Israel and Hamas - BBC
Netherlands Nov Unemployment Rate 3.7% vs consensus 3.8% and prior 3.7%
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
CFR.SW (Richemont) -- reports Q3 Sales €6.15B vs consensus €5.60B
ZAL.GR (Zalando) -- reports preliminary FY adj. EBIT ~€510M vs prior guidance €440-€480M and FactSet €369.0M [18 est, €275-399M]
IDIA.SW (Idorsia) -- to present at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference; provides 2025 guidance
FRA.GR (Fraport) -- reports Dec Frankfurt Airport traffic statistics: passengers ~4.5M, (1.1%) y/y
DRW3.GR (Drägerwerk) -- reports preliminary FY EBIT €197M vs FactSet €169.10M [6 est.]
VBK.GR (Verbio) -- reduces EBITDA forecast for 2024/25
ARYN.SW (Aryzta) -- trading update; expects to achieve all its 2025 mid-term targets one year ahead of schedule; new CEO will provide fresh targets at next mid-term plan in May
GEBN.SW (Geberit) -- reports preliminary Q4 revenue CHF685M vs StreetAccount CHF684.0M; expects FY EBITDA margin slightly below the previous year
France
RNO.FP (Renault) -- Group reports FY24 car sales ~2.26M; +1.3% y/y
ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris) -- reports Total Paris Aeroport Dec traffic 8.3M, +5.0% y/y
Southern Europe
REP.SM (Repsol) -- reports preliminary Q4 production 554 Mboe/d vs FactSet 559.1 Mboe/d
STLAM.IM (Stellantis) -- reports Q4 consolidated shipment estimates of ~1.40M units; (9%) y/y
Nordics
MOWI.NO (Mowi) -- reports Q4 operational EBIT €226M vs FactSet €203.1M [12 est, €185-253M]
ORNBV.FH (Orion) -- upgrades FY outlook for 2024; provides preliminary information on financial performance for 2024
AKRBP.NO (Aker BP) -- reports Q4 net production 499.2 mboepd vs quarter-ago 414.7
KESKOB.FH (Kesko) -- reports Dec sales €970.3M, +3.9% in comparable terms
DNO.NO (DNO ASA) -- Trading Update: Q4 net entitlement production 36,455 boepd vs year-ago 42,936
Benelux
FLOW.NA (Flow Traders) -- reports December 2024 market statistics
FAST.NA (Fastned) -- reports Q4 revenue €26.6M, +39% y/y
M&A.
DORO.SS (Doro) -- Xplora Technologies announces corrected outcome of the public offer for Doro; intends to work towards acquiring all remaining shares
KER.FP (Kering) -- contributing three real estate assets to a newly created joint venture with Ardian
SGO.FP (Compagnie de Saint-Gobain) -- completes acquisition of OVNIVER Group in Mexico & Central America
APAM.NA (Aperam) -- Universal Stainless & Alloys Products shareholders approve acquisition by Aperam
SEAPT.NO (Seacrest Petroleo Bermuda) -- announces that lenders enforce share pledge and take control of business
CARR.LN (Carr's Group) -- Cadre Holdings to acquire multiple nuclear brands from Carr's Group for enterprise value of £75M cash
Healthcare
AZN.LN (AstraZeneca) --
NICE unable to recommend AstraZeneca's Ondexxya for reversing anticoagulation from apixaban or rivaroxaban in adults
NICE recommends AstraZeneca's Imfinzi neoadjuvant with chemotherapy then adjuvant alone to treat resectable NSCLC
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- FDA approves first generic of Bayer's Stivarga
SNG.LN (Synairgen) -- announces £18M raised to fund Phase 2 INVENT clinical trial of SNG001
SANN.SW (Santhera Pharmaceuticals Holding) -- announces that NICE has issued positive Final Guidance that recommends AGAMREE for use in NHS in England, Wales and Northern Ireland for treatment of DMD in patients 4 years of age and older
Other
UMG.NA (Universal Music Group) -- announces Pershing Square has exercised right to request offering and secondary listing of UMG in the U.S.
ALO.FP (Alstom) -- announces new agreement with Metrilinx
DLG.IM (De'Longhi) -- initiates a €60M share buyback program
CEC.GR (CECONOMY) -- CECONOMY's supervisory board member Jürgen Kellerhals acquires 150,000 shares om 14-Jan - Filing
Key rating changes
Upgrades
BA.LN (BAE Systems) -- to neutral from underperform at BNP Paribas Exane
HO.FP (Thales) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
BALD.B.SS (Fastighets Balder) -- to buy from hold at SEB
BEIJ.B.SS (Beijer Ref) -- to buy from hold at DnB Markets
IRE.IM (Iren) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
SAGA.B.SS (Sagax) -- to buy from hold at SEB
Downgrades
MBG.GR (Mercedes-Benz Group) -- to market perform from outperform at Bernstein
SW.FP (Sodexo) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
PRX.NA (Prosus) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
Initiations
PLX.FP (Pluxee) -- hold at Stifel
Data
Nikkei +0.50% to 38635.25
Hang Seng +1.19% to 19515.07
Shanghai Composite +0.29% to 3236.62
S&P futures +6.0 vs prior close of 5989.0
€-$ (0.0004) or (0.04%) to 1.0286
$-¥ (0.22) or (0.14%) to 156.24
€-¥ (0.35) or (0.22%) to 160.68
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