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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.33% to 8548.29, DAX +0.25% to 21042.00, CAC40 +0.48% to 7770.95, STOXX 600 +0.40% to 525.98

Jan 21 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets closed mostly mixed to higher Tuesday. Follows Monday's positive close. Among EU sectors, health care, personal/household goods and travel/leisure best performers; basic resources, autos and energy biggest decliners.

    • Lot of attention to tariff developments after Trump flagged 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico from 1-Feb in an exchange with reporters. Also left open possibility of universal tariff (though said he's not there yet) while repeating threat to hit Europe with tariffs unless it ramped up US oil purchases.

    • On macro data front, UK unemployment moved up, with the December claimant count +0.7K versus consensus +10.3K, but prior revised to -25.1K from +0.3K initially reported. ILO unemployment rate up to 4.4% versus prior 4.3%, as expected. Number of payrolled employees for December down 47K on the month and vacancy rate down 24K to 812K, which underpinned signs of a slowing labor market. However, wage growth is still too high to bring inflation back to the BoE's 2% target, hitting a six-month high. Big miss in German ZEW sentiment survey, dropping to 10.3 vs consensus 15.2 and prior 15.7.

    • In other news, ECB's Kazimir said he sees three to four more rate cuts starting next week. UK Chancellor Reeves backs plans for looser limits on mortgage lending to support economy.

    • On the earnings front, overnight, Ørsted (ORSTED.DC) issued a profit warning, reporting another DKK12B in US impairments for Q4. Further out of the Nordics, Avanza Bank Holding (AZA.SS) reported preliminary FY earnings and raised dividend by +2.2% y/y. In Switzerland, ALSO Holding (ALSN.SW), Komax Holding (KMN.SW) and DocMorris (DOCM.SW) reported preliminary FY earnings with the latter confirming 2024 targets. -- prelim FY earnings. Out of Germany, Kontron (KTN.GR) and Northern Data (NB2.GR) posted before the open. In the UK, Premier Foods plc (PFD.LN) and abrdn PLC (ABDN.LN) issued numbers. In other notable corporate updates, out of France, Renault CFO, Thierry Piéton, will leave the company effective 28-Feb-25; elsewhere, Raiffeisen Bank International's (RBI.AV) Russian subsidiary AO Raiffeisenbank will book a provision in Q4 of 2024 related to Russian court decision related to Rasperia proceedings. In the UK, Trainline (TRN.LN) shares gained after new Transport Secretary's speech did not mention possibility of government creating rival ticketing app.

    • In M&A, Italy's Ministry of Economy and Finance approves under golden power regulations Banco BPM (BAMI.IM) Vita's acquisition of Anima Holding (ANIM.IM). Bureau Veritas (BVI.FP) agrees to acquire Contec AQS for an undisclosed sum. Cranswick (CWK.LN) acquires entire issued share capital of JSR Genetics Limited from JSR Farms Limited. Symrise AG (SY1.GR) declares offer for Probi AB (PROB.SS) unconditional.

    • Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, notable releases will include, amongst others, UK Dec public Sector Net Borrowing (PSNB) and Ireland Dec PPI.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers

        • Health Care +1.49%, Persnl & HHold Goods +1.16%, Travel & Leisure +0.99%, Financial Svcs +0.65%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.64%

      • Underperformers

        • Basic Resources (1.05%), Autos & Parts (0.71%), Oil & Gas (0.50%), Chemicals (0.16%), Utilities +0.29%, Food & Beverage (0.04%), Construct & Mtls +0.37%, Insurance (0.04%), Telecom +0.19%, Real Estate +0.19%, Retail +0.05%, Technology (0.51%), Banks +0.35%, Media +0.36%

    • Macro:

      • Central Banks:

        • ECB to Near Inflation Target by Middle of Year, Nagel Says -- Bloomberg

        • ECB's Villeroy Says It's Plausible to Act at Each Meeting -- Bloomberg

      • EU:

        • EU 'ready to negotiate' with Trump on boosting gas imports -- Politico

        • Ursula von der Leyen warns on 'fracturing' global economy after Trump tariff threat -- FT

      • UK:

        • Employment in the UK: January 2025 -- ONS

        • UK companies on list of top R&D spenders almost halves in a decade -- FT

      • Germany:

        • German exporters expect 2.7% drop in sales in 'bleak' 2025, trade body says - Reuters

        • Germany to lobby Trump on WHO withdrawal, agency hopes for U-turn -- Reuters

      • France:

        • French Finance Chief Affirms Deficit Path After Winning EU Backing -- Bloomberg

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +60.0% POXEL.FP (Poxel €0.35, +0.15) -- grant of patent in China protecting the use of Imeglimin for Type-2 diabetic patients with renal impairment

        • +32.8% STB.LN (Secure Trust Bank £4.60, +1.14) -- UK Treasury intervenes in car finance mis-selling case

        • +21.6% CBG.LN (Close Brothers Group £3.00, +0.53) -- UK Treasury intervenes in car finance mis-selling case

        • +19.7% KOMN.SW (Komax Holding CHF133.00, +22.40) -- prelim FY revenue

        • +16.1% IVSO.SS (INVISIO SEK313.50, +45.00) -- prelim Q4 revenue

        • +13.1% AZA.SS (Avanza Bank Holding SEK315.10, +37.20) -- prelim Q4 earnings

        • +12.2% ASAI.LN (ASA International Group £0.95, +0.11) -- FY trading update

        • +12.2% FOUR.LN (4imprint Group £55.30, +6.05) -- FY trading update

        • +10.0% ATO.FP (ATOS SE €0.00, -0.00) -- publishes estimated 2024 year-end liquidity position

        • +7.5% SHOE.LN (Shoe Zone £1.03, +0.08) -- FY earnings

        • +7.4% DAL.IM (Datalogic €4.64, +0.33) -- order

        • +6.3% ALSN.SW (ALSO Holding CHF240.00, +14.50) -- prelim FY earnings

        • +6.3% ELM.LN (Elementis £1.56, +0.09) -- FY trading update

        • +6.2% KTN.GR (Kontron €19.24, +1.14) -- prelim FY earnings

        • +6.1% HVO.LN (hVIVO plc £0.19, +0.01) -- contract

        • +5.8% ALPH.LN (Alpha Group International £23.60, +1.30) -- FY trading update

        • +4.6% ALMKT.FP (Mauna Kea Technologies €0.19, +0.01) -- secures additional U.S. artificial intelligence patent to strengthen Endomicroscopy IP complex

        • +4.4% ABDN.LN (abrdn Plc £1.46, +0.06) -- FY trading update

        • +4.0% LLOY.LN (Lloyds Banking Group £0.61, +0.02) -- UK Treasury intervenes in car finance mis-selling case

        • +3.9% IBAB.BB (Ion Beam Applications €13.20, +0.50) -- invests €5M for a 15% stake in mi2-factory to support improved efficiency of silicon carbide-powered devices

        • +3.9% ABCA.FP (ABC arbitrage €5.06, +0.19) -- FY trading update

        • +3.6% KIE.LN (Kier Group £1.45, +0.05) -- H1 trading update

        • +3.5% PROT.NO (Protector Forsikring NOK308.50, +10.50) -- Q4 update

        • +3.1% G4M.LN (Gear4Music (Holdings) £1.50, +0.04) -- Q3 trading update

        • +3.0% ALBPS.FP (Biophytis €0.32, +0.01) -- company and China's AskHelpU sign Co-Development agreement in Rare Neuromuscular Diseases in China

        • +2.8% LUND.B.SS (L E Lundbergföretagen SEK528.00, +14.50) -- Handelsbanken downgrade

        • +2.6% NIBE.B.SS (NIBE Industrier SEK43.10, +1.09) -- BofA upgrade

        • +2.6% PFD.LN (Premier Foods £1.83, +0.05) -- Q3 trading update

      • Notable Decliners

        • -19.2% ASCN.SW (Ascom Holding CHF3.45, -0.81) -- prelim FY earnings

        • -10.7% ORSTED.DC (Ørsted DKK271.30, -33.50) -- prelim FY adjusted EBITDA; records impairments of DKK12.1B in Q4

        • -7.9% QQ.LN (QinetiQ Group £3.82, -0.33) -- Q3 trading update

        • -7.4% MSLH.LN (Marshalls £2.36, -0.19) -- FY trading update

        • -5.3% MARS.LN (Marston's £0.41, -0.02) -- FY trading update

        • -5.1% S92.GR (SMA Solar Technology €15.00, -0.79) -- Orsted sympathy

        • -4.3% XPP.LN (XP Power £12.92, -0.56) -- Q4 trading update

        • -4.2% DOCM.SW (DocMorris CHF20.56, -0.90) -- prelim Q4 revenue

        • -3.0% NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro NOK67.28, -2.06) -- RBC Capital Markets downgrade

        • -3.0% RBI.AV (Raiffeisen Bank International €20.84, -0.66) -- Russian subsidiary AO Raiffeisenbank will book a provision in Q4 of 2024 related to Russian court decision related to Rasperia proceedings

        • -2.7% NEL.NO (NEL ASA NOK2.29, -0.06) -- Cavendish Hydrogen initiates a process to adjust capacity to market demand

        • -2.3% VWS.DC (Vestas Wind Systems DKK94.02, -2.24) -- Orsted sympathy

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • easyJet (EZJ.LN), LBG Media (LBG.LN), VEF (VEFAB.SS), MAG Interactive (MAGI.SS), Alligator Bioscience (ATORX.SS)

      • Trading Update:

        • Barry Callebaut (BARN.SW), Intermediate Capital Group (ICG.LN), Quilter (QLT.LN), PensionBee Group (PBEE.LN), Forterra (FORT.LN), HighCo (HCO.FP)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Germany Jan ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator 10.3 vs consensus 15.2 and prior 15.7

      • UK November ILO Unemployment Rate 4.4% vs consensus 4.3% and prior 4.3%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (25-Feb): ($1.20) or (1.54%) to $76.68

      • €-$ (0.0001) or (0.01%) to 1.0414

      • £-$ (0.0012) or (0.10%) to 1.2316

      • €-£ +0.0007 to 0.8456

      • S&P 500 +0.50%

      • Performance year-to-date:

        • FTSE 100: +4.59%

        • DAX: +5.69%

        • CAC: +5.29%

        • MIB: +5.48%

        • Stoxx 600: +3.62%

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