Jan 21 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open mixed to lower whilst Asia markets mixed Tuesday in bumpy trade. Most boards trading higher although Japan's Nikkei and Topix are now flat following a promising open. Greater China boards mixed after Trump requested an investigation into tariffs rather than immediate imposition.
Lot of attention to tariff developments after Trump flagged 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico from 1-Feb in an exchange with reporters. Also left open possibility of universal tariff (though said he's not there yet). while repeating threat to hit Europe with tariffs unless it ramped up US oil purchases. Trump's comments appeared to sap risk sentiment following earlier reports he was refraining from immediate action on China in favor of investigation into America's trading relationships with other countries.
Following his inauguration as US president on Monday, Trump moved quickly to sign flurry of executive orders, including declaring national emergency on southern border, forcing federal workers back to office, withdrawing from Paris agreement and WHO, rolling back EV policies and boosting oil and gas drilling.
On today's agenda, Elsewhere on Tue, ECOFIN meeting , ECB's de Guindos among the attendees, and UK MPs questions on HM Treasury at 11:30 GMT, with parliament committee topics including energy grid and grid connections 10:30, export led growth 14:30, Energy Security and Net Zero 13:30 (Sec. of State Ed Miliband) and UK-EU reset 16:00. Norway's PM Støre speech at 15:00CET at the Norwegian Trade Union Confederation and NTL's conf on the black economy. What will the next US president's strategic priorities be internationally? What are the implications for Europe and the rest of the world? - LSE. UK's Institute for Government annual conf. Handelsblatt Energy Summit 2025 (several politician and company execs among the speakers) (through Wed). European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) releases Dec new passenger car registrations for EU + EFTA + UK.
In central banks, Riksbank's Thedéen (via Financial Stability Council) at Riksdag Committee on Finance hearing at 9:00CET and Bunge participate at 11:30CET in a parliamentary seminar on future legislation for cash. BOE's Cleland speech at 9:40GMT at the City & Financial Global Payments Regulation and Innovation Summit. Bundesbank monthly report pre-releases at 12noon CET. Portugal central bank's Centeno speaks ay 9:00CET at a parliamentary Budget, Finance and Public Administration Committee hearing.
European macro data releases include Germany Jan ZEW survey, UK Dec claimant count change, Nov unemployment rate
On the corporate front, last night, Ørsted (Orsted.DC) issued a profit warning, reporting another DKK12B in US impairments for Q4. Also, in Nordics, Avanza Bank Holding (AZA.SS) reported preliminary FY earnings and raised dividend by +2.2% y/y. In Switzerland, ALSO Holding (ALSN.SW) and DocMorris (DOCM.SW) reported preliminary FY earnings with the latter confirming 2024 targets. Other notable companies due to update investors today includes, Porsche (P911.GR), Galenica (GALE.SW), Alstom (ALO.FP), abrdn (ABDN.LN) and Cranswick (CWK.LN).
In M&A, Italy's Ministry of Economy and Finance approves under golden power regulations Banco BPM (BAMI.IM) Vita's acquisition of Anima Holding (ANIM.IM).
Politics/Macro/World News
Europe treads carefully as Trump outlines first policy moves - FT
EU urged to add industrial kiln commodity to list of key raw materials - FT
Europe Car Sales Stagnate as Consumers Shun Electric Vehicles - Bloomberg
Scholz and Merz Bring German Election Campaign to Davos - Bloomberg
Germany's industry fears Donald Trump - Handelsblatt
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
DOCM.SW (DocMorris) -- reports prelim. Q4 external revenue from cont. ops CHF289.2M vs year-ago CHF280.0M; reaffirms 2024 targets
NB2.GR (Northern Data) -- reports preliminary Q4 revenue €86M vs FactSet €98.1M [3 est, €96.7-99M]; expects FY adj. EBITDA between €60 - €80M vs prior guidance €50 - €80M
KTN.GR (Kontron) -- reports prelim FY24 EBITDA to exceed €190M vs FactSet €191.5M [6 est, €163.3-209.5M]; guides FY25
ALSN.SW (ALSO Holding) -- reports preliminary FY revenue €11.0B vs FactSet €10.28B [5 est, €9.80-10.75B]
KOMN.SW (Komax Holding) -- reports preliminary FY revenue ~CHF630M vs FactSet CHF602.9M [3 est, CHF600.8-606.0M]
ASCN.SW (Ascom Holding) -- reports preliminary FY revenue CHF286.7M vs FactSet CHF291.4M [2 est, CHF291.4-291.4M]
France
ATO.FP (ATOS SE) -- Atos publishes estimated 2024 year-end liquidity position
ABCA.FP (ABC arbitrage) --: Trading update Pace of Activity reached a significantly higher level than in 2023, with an estimated y/y increase of around 30%
ALCOX.FP (Nicox) -- reports preliminary Q4 revenue €13.7M, almost entirely consisting of proceeds from the sale of the Vyzulta royalty
Nordics
ORSTED.DC (Ørsted) -- reports preliminary FY adj EBITDA DKK24.8B vs prior guidance DKK24-26B; will record impairments of DKK12.1B in Q4
AZA.SS (Avanza Bank Holding) -- reports prelim. Q4 EPS SEK3.98 vs FactSet SEK3.61 [6 est, SEK3.27-3.95]; raises dividend +2.2 y/y
Other
BHP.AU (BHP Group) -- reports Q2 production; iron ore production 66.2Mt vs StreetAccount 65.7Mt
BHP.AU (BHP Group) -- Follow-up: BHP Group reports Q2 production; iron ore production 66.2Mt vs StreetAccount 65.7Mt
Also reporting today
Earnings: Avanza Bank (AZA.SS), Gigante Salmon (GIGA.NO), Shoe Zone (SHOE.LN), Ilika (IKA.LN)
Trading Update:
DACHs: Porsche (P911.GR), Galenica (GALE.SW)
France: Alstom (ALO.FP), Sidetrade (ALBFR.FP)
UK: abrdn (ABDN.LN), Cranswick (CWK.LN), Premier Foods (PFD.LN), Elementis (ELM.LN), Serica Energy (SQZ.LN), Essentra (ESNT.LN), Yu Group (YU.LN), 4imprint Group (FOUR.LN)
M&A
ANIM.IM (Anima Holding SpA) -- Italy's Ministry of Economy and Finance approves under golden power regulations Banco BPM Vita's acquisition of Anima Holding
ABX.CN (Barrick Gold) -- exploring sale of its 50% stake in Zaldivar copper mine in Chile - Bloomberg (11:32 ET)
BVI.FP (Bureau Veritas) -- agrees to acquire Contec AQS for an undisclosed sum
NHH.SM (Minor Hotels Europe & Americas) -- shareholders approve MHG proposals for launch of squeeze out offer and delisting of shares from Spanish Stock Exchanges
PROB.SS (Probi) -- Symrise AG declares offer for Probi AB unconditional
ALSN.SW (ALSO Holding) -- reports preliminary FY revenue €11.0B vs FactSet €10.28B [5 est, €9.80-10.75B]
LRE.SM (Lar España Real Estate) -- Helios to require the squeeze-out of all the shares of Lar España Real Estate
Healthcare
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- Sanofi's Opella reaches study milestone for Cialis
VLA.FP (Valneva) -- reports high sustained immune response in adolescents one year after single vaccination with its Chikungunya vaccine
PHARM.NA (Pharming Group) -- nominates Fabrice Chouraqui as new CEO, succeeding Sijmen de Vries
POXEL.FP (Poxel) -- announces the grant of patent in China protecting the use of Imeglimin for Type-2 diabetic patients with renal impairment
ALBPS.FP (Biophytis) -- and China's AskHelpU sign Co-Development agreement in Rare Neuromuscular Diseases in China
Other
AVOL.SW (Avolta) -- secures contact for fifteen duty-free stores across five airports in Tunisia
FGR.FP (Eiffage) -- wins contract to renovate and extend the container terminal in Congo in a deal worth over €100M
RBI.AV (Raiffeisen Bank International) -- Raiffeisen Bank International's Russian subsidiary AO Raiffeisenbank will book a provision in Q4 of 2024 related to Russian court decision related to Rasperia proceedings
European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) December new passenger car registrations for EU + EFTA + UK +4.1% y/y
Key rating changes
Upgrades
BOOZT.SS (Boozt Fashion) -- to buy from hold at Danske Bank
Downgrades
NETC.DC (Netcompany Group) -- to hold from buy at SEB
QTCOM.FH (Qt Group) -- to hold from buy at SEB
NSKOG.NO (Norske Skog) -- to hold from buy at DnB Markets
Initiations
BT.A.LN (BT Group) -- underperform at Oddo
IVSO.SS (INVISIO) -- buy at Danske Bank
Data
Nikkei +0.32% to 39027.98
Hang Seng +0.85% to 20094.98
Shanghai Composite (0.11%) to 3240.68
S&P futures +5.0 vs prior close of 6033.5
€-$ (0.0048) or (0.46%) to 1.0368
$-¥ (0.10) or (0.06%) to 155.54
€-¥ (0.84) or (0.52%) to 161.27
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