Jan 30 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open mixed. Asia equities also mixed amid thin volumes as the LNY holiday continues: Japan's benchmarks are a few points higher, Australia's ASX is also up and India stocks also slightly better bid. But Southeast Asia markets are lower along with New Zealand. US futures higher but off peaks, Europe eying another positive open. US dollar a smidge weaker, yen strengthening on BOJ comments. Treasury bonds mixed, JGB yields higher. Crude oil, industrial and precious metals mostly unchanged. Cryptocurrencies seeing more strength.
Focus on ECB interest rate decision at 14:15CET, Lagarde press conf. at 14:45. Its benchmark interest rate is expected to be cut by (25bps) to 2.75%. Riksbank's Breman will discuss current monetary policy and the economic situation at 9:20CET at a management conf. at Danske bank. Norges Bank's Bech-Moen speech at 9:45CET at The Norwegian Economists' Currency Seminar.
In politics, Germany's Ministry of Finance releases its latest Monthly Report and EU Commission launches a Strategic Dialogue with the European automotive industry, social partners and other key stakeholders, introductory remarks form EU's von der Leyen. Latest Delphi Brussels Forum, speakers include EU's Šuica, Kos and Costello, CEO of PPC Renewables (PPC.GA). In UK, parliamentary committee topics include Use of AI in Government at 10:00GMT. Also on Thu, Fitch Rating hosts Insurance Insights 2025 - Paris at 8:30CET, The Nordic Energy Efficiency Conf takes place, Norway's energy minister Aasland speaks at 9:00CET at meeting organized by Offshore Norway and the Norwegian Shipowners' Assn. and then attends Pareto Securities' conf on power and renewable energy. Norway's PM Støre speech at 12noon CET at DNB conf. in Oslo.
Macroeconomic releases today include: Germany Q4 preliminary GDP, France Q4 preliminary GDP, Dec consumer spending, Spain Jan preliminary CPI, Italy Q4 preliminary GDP, Dec unemployment rate, UK Dec mortgage approvals, M4 money supply, Sweden Dec retail sales, Switzerland Jan leading indicators - KOF, Dec trade balance (watch export data), Denmark Dec unemployment rate, Portugal Q4 preliminary GDP, Austria Q4 preliminary GDP, Dec PPI, Eurozone Q4 preliminary GDP, Jan consumer/economic sentiment, Greece Dec unemployment rate, PPI, Belgium Jan CPI. UK Dec car production is due for release.
In corporate news, Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR) reported Q4 net income €337M vs consensus €380M, hiked divi by 50% and issued guidance for FY25. Also in the DACHs, Roche Holding (ROG.SW) reported FY Core EPS CHF18.80 vs FactSet CHF18.48. Symrise (SY1.GR) reports FY EPS €3.42 vs consensus €3.28; confirms growth and profitability targets for 2025 and mid-term targets 2028. ABB Limited (ABBN.SW) is out with Q4 EPS $0.54 vs consensus $0.52.
In Southern Europe, Generali (G.IM) announced over €7B in cumulative dividends plus commitment to at least €1.5B in share buybacks. CaixaBank (CABK.SM) reported FY net attributable profit €5.79B, +20% y/y. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA.SM) Q4 net income attributable €2.43B vs consensus €2.24B. In France, STMicroelectronics (STMPA.FP posted Q4 EPS $0.37 vs consensus $0.35. Eurofins Scientific (ERF.FP) reported FY net income €405M vs FactSet €503.9M. Sanofi (SAN.FP) reports Q4 business EPS €1.31 vs consensus €1.31, hiked divi by ~4% and announced €5B buyback.
Out of the Nordics, Nokia (NOKIA.FH), Ambu (AMBU.B.DC) and Telia (TELIA.SS) among others, released their most recent earnings, with the later also announcing Stein-Erik Vellan, SVP, Head of Telia Norway, to leave company; to be succeeded by Bjørn Ivar Moen effective 1-Jan-26 at the latest.
In the UK, Shell (SHEL.LN), Airtel Africa (AAF.LN), Wizz Air (WIZZ.LN), Rank Group (RNK.LN) and ITM Power (ITM.LN) are expected to update the market with their latest numbers.
Politics/Macro/World News
Why the EU's competitiveness plan is still a work in progress - FT
France's Budget Bill Nears Cliff Edge in Parliamentary Talks - Bloomberg
Big challenge to keep UK's debt down, Bailey warns MPs - The Times
EU debates return to Russian gas as part of Ukraine deal - FT
German lawmakers can't agree whether to seek ban on far-right AfD - Politico
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
ABBN.SW (ABB Limited) -- reports Q4 EPS $0.54 vs consensus $0.52
BUCN.SW (Bucher Industries) -- reports FY revenue CHF3.16B vs FactSet CHF3.17B [7 est, CHF3.13-3.24B]
GURN.SW (Gurit Holding) -- reports preliminary FY revenue CHF431.7M vs FactSet CHF434.0M [4 est, CHF431.4-435.1M]
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- reports FY Core EPS CHF18.80 vs FactSet CHF18.48 [20 est, CHF17.17-19.78]
DBK.GR (Deutsche Bank) -- reports Q4 net income €337M vs consensus €380M; hikes divi by 50% and guides FY25
HLAG.GR (Hapag-Lloyd) -- reports preliminary Q4 EBIT €800M vs FactSet €768.6M [2 est, €765.0-772.2M]
UHR.SW (Swatch Group) -- reports FY net income CHF219M vs FactSet CHF353.5M [17 est, CHF258-440.7M]; cuts divi by ~31% and guides FY25
Nordics
NOKIA.FH (Nokia) -- reports Q4 comparable EPS €0.18 vs consensus €0.13; guides FY25
AMBU.B.DC (Ambu) -- reports Q1 EPS DKK0.68 vs FactSet DKK0.69 [6 est, DKK0.50-0.80]; confirms FY guidance
TELIA.SS (Telia Co.) -- reports Q4 EPS (SEK0.13) and unclear if comparable to consensus SEK0.13
NDA.SE.SS (Nordea Bank) -- reports Q4 EPS €0.32 vs FactSet €0.32 [17 est, €0.30-0.33]
SF.SS (Stillfront Group) -- announces non-cash goodwill impairment of SEK 6.9B, preliminary Q4 and FY24 results
PROT.NO (Protector Forsikring) -- reports Q4 net income NOK248M vs FactSet NOK211.0M [3 est, NOK197-234.9M]
INTRUM.SS (Intrum) -- reports Q4 Adjusted EBIT SEK1.70B vs consensus SEK1.51B
GRNG.SS (Gränges) -- reports Q4 EPS SEK1.67 vs FactSet SEK1.75 [4 est, SEK1.70-1.78]; expects Q1 mid-single-digit volume growth y/y
EVO.SS (Evolution) -- reports Q4 EPS €1.38 vs FactSet €1.35 [10 est, €1.30-1.39]; proposes dividend of €2.80 and shares buyback of up to €500M in 2025
Southern Europe
CABK.SM (CaixaBank) -- reports FY net attributable profit €5.79B, +20% vs year-ago €4.82B
G.IM (Generali) -- announces over €7B in cumulative dividends plus commitment to at least €1.5B in share buybacks -- Lifetime Partner 27 plan
BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) -- reports Q4 net income attributable €2.43B vs consensus €2.24B
Benelux
WDP.BB (Warehouses de Pauw) -- reports FY EPRA EPS €1.50 vs guidance €1.47 and FactSet €1.47 [12 est, €1.45-1.48]
France
VLTSA.FP (Voltalia) -- reports preliminary FY revenue €546.6M vs FactSet €523.3M [7 est, €460.4-579.9M]
MTU.FP (Manitou BF) -- reports FY revenue €2.66B vs FactSet €2.67B [4 est, €2.67-2.68B]
S30.FP (Solutions 30) -- reports preliminary FY revenue €994.6M vs FactSet €1.01B [3 est, €1.00-1.02B]
MRN.FP (Mersen) -- reports preliminary FY revenue €1.24B vs FactSet €1.23B [6 est, €1.22-1.24B]
ERF.FP (Eurofins Scientific) -- reports FY net income €405M vs FactSet €503.9M [15 est, €369.5-684.7M]
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- reports Q4 business EPS €1.31 vs consensus €1.31; hikes divi by ~4%, announces €5B buyback and guides FY25
M&A
MOWI.NO (Mowi) -- to pay NOK 7.4B (€625M) for Vigner Olaisen's 46% stake in Nova Sea through 30% settlement in shares and 70% in cash; increases ownership of Nova Sea to 95%
INT.IM (Intermonte Partners SIM) -- Banca Generali announces final results of offer for Intermonte Partners SIM in line with prelim. release; will proceed to suspend trading in Intermonte shares on 3-Feb
LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa) -- takes 10% stake in airBaltic
MTRO.LN (Metro Bank Holdings) -- confirms in preliminary discussions regarding the potential sale of its performing consumer loan portfolio
AFP.SW (Aluflexpack) -- EU conditionally clears takeover of Aluflexpack by Constantia
ALHEX.FP (Hexaom) -- finalizes previously announced acquisition of 75.5% stake in the capital of HDV Group
Healthcare
IVA.FP (Inventiva) -- announces publication of the results from lanifibranor trial in patients with T2D and MASLD in the Journal of Hepatology
GALD.SW (Galderma Group) -- demonstrates injectable aesthetics leadership in medication-driven weight loss with new research and first international consensus-based guidelines
OSE.FP (OSE Immunotherapeutics) -- OSE Immunotherapeutics, Scienta Lab announce strategic collaboration to harness Scienta Lab's advanced AI platform for modeling inflammatory diseases and identifying predictive biomarkers of efficacy for immunotherapies
Other
VOD.LN (Vodafone Group) -- Vodafone, AST SpaceMobile to launch direct-to-phone satellite service in 2025 or 2026
G.IM (Assicurazioni Generali) -- to not proceed with a presentation of a slate for board renewal
PNN.LN (Pennon Group) -- publishes prospectus in connection with previously disclosed 13 for 20 rights issue at 264p/share (29-Jan)
NAS.NO (Norwegian Air Shuttle) -- notes Ministry of Climate and Environment files appeal regarding EU ETS obligations for 2020
DIA.SM (Distribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion) -- provides terms and dates of reverse stock split
TELIA.SS (Telia Co.) -- announces Stein-Erik Vellan, SVP, Head of Telia Norway, to leave company; to be succeeded by Bjørn Ivar Moen effective 1-Jan-26 at the latest
Key rating changes
Upgrades
AENA.SM (Aena S.M.E.) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
CWR.LN (Ceres Power Holdings) -- to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs
LOGN.SW (Logitech International) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
SSAB.A.SS (SSAB) -- to buy from hold at DnB Markets
Downgrades
AVOL.SW (Avolta) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
TEL2.B.SS (Tele2) -- Tele2 long-term recommendation downgraded to underperform from market perform at Handelsbanken
APH.LN (Alliance Pharma) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
Initiations
IPS.FP (Ipsos) -- neutral at UBS
Data
Nikkei +0.25% to 39513.97
Hang Seng +0.00% to 20225.11
Shanghai Composite +0.00% to 3250.60
S&P futures +19.5 vs prior close of 6067.5
€-$ (0.0010) or (0.09%) to 1.0413
$-¥ (0.75) or (0.49%) to 154.48
€-¥ (0.89) or (0.55%) to 160.88
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE