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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (0.15%) to 8570.77, DAX +0.36% to 21505.70, CAC40 +0.66% to 7906.40, STOXX 600 +0.22% to 536.04

Feb 04 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets closed mostly higher with the exception of UK (0.2%), Switzerland (0.6%) and Denmark (0.5%). Autos, Technology and Banks were the best performing sectors. Financial services, Telecom and Food&Bev were the main laggards. Follows downbeat close on Monday. Came after positive performance last week with fresh all-time highs for Stoxx 600, FTSE and DAX.

    • Markets processing fast moving tariff developments with Trump agreeing to pause tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days. Situation remains fluid with press reporting Trump eyeing 10% tariffs on EU. Lot of sell-side research in recent days about the stagflationary implications from tariffs, along with the headwind from tighter financial conditions and overhang on corporate sentiment.

    • NATO chief Rutte told European leaders to spend more on defense to prevent a war with Russia. EU open to increasing flexibility of fiscal rules to allow more spending on defense. French PM Bayrou to face confidence votes after pushing through budget. UK Treasury has told several government departments to prepare for budgets to be frozen in cash terms ahead of major spending review in June. UK Chancellor Reeves to review UK's tax on US tech firms, as the country attempts to avoid being hit with US tariffs. Report from Deloitte said prohibitive building costs stunt UK growth projects

    • The UK is targeting a 19-May UK-EU summit for a new deal to reset its relationship with the bloc (Reuters). UK minister Thomas-Symonds expressed optimism on Tuesday for an agreement to enhance cooperation on security, law enforcement and removing trade barriers. UK PM Starmer addressed a meeting of 27 EU leaders on Monday night and called for ambitious security partnership with the bloc (Guardian). The UK government has talked up reduction in trade barriers and need to reduce red tape, boost productivity and investment in research.

    • Quiet macro calendar in Europe today with Spain Jan unemployment change in at 38.7K vs consensus +45.4K and prior (25.3K).

    • A busy morning for earnings; out of DACHs, UBS Group (UBSG.SW) closed lower on Q4 earnings driven by IB along with $3B buyback; integration-related expenses, however, are now seen at ~$14B vs prior $13B. Infineon Technologies (IFX.GR) out with solid Q1 performance and updated Q2 outlook ahead of forecasts underpinned mainly by stronger dollar. Siltronic (WAF.GR) also saw better-than-expected FY24 numbers, however, shares are down as group expects demand to remain subdued and no sales growth in 2025; further, due to the delayed demand recovery, mid-term targets are now expected to be realized after the year 2028. Out of France, Dassault Systemes (DSY.FP) reported better-than-expected Q4 EPS while sales were a notch below expectations and provided Q1 and FY25 guidance. BNP Paribas (BNP.FP) shares up post better-than-expected Q4 numbers and constructive outlook. Publicis Groupe (PUB.FP) reported better-than-expected FY numbers with organic growth at +6.3% vs consensus +5.9% and offered FY25 outlook with organic growth between +4-5%. In the UK, Diageo (DGE.LN) reported H1, together with Vodafone Group (VOD.LN). Out of the Nordics, Bavarian Nordic A/S (BAVA.DC) announced preliminary 2024 revenue DKK 5.716B vs FactSet DKK 5.30B whilst Coloplast (COLO.B.SC) reports Q1. Elsewhere, TomTom (TOM2.NA) shares also down post Q4 miss for net income and EBIT.

    • In M&A, Kingspan Holdings (KRX.ID) announces recommended cash offer to shareholders of Nordic Waterproofing (NWG.SS) at price of SEK 182.50 in cash per share. EU clears CEZ's (CEZ.CP) acquisition of a stake in Rolls-Royce SMR (RR.LN). FirstGroup (FGP.LN) acquires Matthews Coach Hire in Ireland. SoftwareOne (SWON.SW) is moving forward with its planned combination with Crayon (CRAYN.NO) announced on 19-Dec-24 and today confirmed its intention to apply for a secondary listing of its shares on Euronext Oslo Børs. Airbus (AIR.FP), reportedly, working with Goldman Sachs to evaluate potential merger of its space and satellite businesses with Leonardo (LDO.IM), Thales (HO.FP).

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Autos & Parts +2.09%, Technology +1.80%, Banks +1.29%, Oil & Gas +0.83%, Basic Resources +0.81%, Construct & Mtls +0.57%, Insurance +0.51%, Retail +0.40%, Travel & Leisure +0.39%, Chemicals +0.36%, Utilities +0.33%

      • Underperformers:

        • Financial Svcs (1.13%), Telecom (0.90%), Food & Beverage (0.86%), Health Care (0.76%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.14%), Real Estate (0.09%), Ind Goods & Svcs +0.11%, Media +0.14%

    • Macro:

      • EU:

        • EU warns of firm response to Trump's tariff threats, citing high stakes - Reuters

        • EU considers relaxing fiscal rules to boost defense spending - FT

        • EU considers tougher China stance to appease Trump's trade war threats - Politico

        • EU leaders warns of trade war risks as Trump threatens tariffs on EU goods - Reuters

      • France:

        • France's Smaller State Deficit Gives Some Respite in Budget Woes - Bloomberg

      • UK:

        • UK economic slowdown could erase Chancellor Reeve's fiscal headroom, economists warn (FT)

        • Reform UK edges ahead of Labour in latest YouGov poll, marking historic first (Telegraph)

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +28.7% STAF.LN (Staffline Group £0.24, +0.05) -- FY trading update

        • +10.4% IFX.GR (Infineon Technologies €34.50, +3.24) -- Q1 earnings

        • +9.5% NOBI.SS (Nobia SEK4.41, +0.38) -- Q4 earnings

        • +8.4% GN.DC (GN Store Nord DKK153.95, +11.95) -- launch of two new products including world's smallest AI powered hearing aid

        • +7.3% QLINEA.SS (Q-linea SEK0.34, +0.02) -- Ghent University publishes ASTar study results

        • +5.8% TLW.LN (Tullow Oil £0.19, +0.01) -- new CEO search update

        • +5.7% ENT.LN (Entain £7.35, +0.40) -- BetMGM FY24 Trading Update

        • +4.3% UNI.SM (Unicaja Banco €1.44, +0.06) -- FY earnings; strategic plan 2025 - 2027

        • +4.2% BNP.FP (BNP Paribas €67.05, +2.73) -- Q4 earnings; implementation of semi-annual interim dividend policy

        • +3.4% VOLO.SS (Volati SEK108.60, +3.60) -- acquires Clever Etiketten GmbH in Germany

        • +3.0% SCR.FP (SCOR SE €25.10, +0.74) -- January P&C reinsurance renewals

        • +2.0% KGX.GR (Kion Group €35.60, +0.70) -- preliminary FY EBIT €917M ex-items vs FactSet €848.9M [17 est, €734-892M]; announces efficiency program

        • +1.9% DSV.DC (DSV A/S DKK1,424.00, +26.50) -- Q4 earnings

        • +1.9% ISP.IM (Intesa Sanpaolo €4.25, +0.08) -- Q4 earnings

        • +1.6% HO.FP (Thales €159.90, +2.55) -- Airbus working with Goldman Sachs to evaluate potential merger of its space and satellite businesses with Leonardo, Thales -- Bloomberg

        • +1.5% PARKEN.DC (PARKEN Sport & Entertainment DKK137.00, +2.00) -- launches DKK30M share buy-back program; 2025 guidance

      • Notable Decliners

        • -36.2% FXPO.LN (Ferrexpo £0.66, -0.38) -- update on proceedings against the group's subsidiary Ferrexpo Poltava Mining in Ukraine

        • -14.2% TYRES.FH (Nokian Renkaat €6.84, -1.14) -- Q4 earnings

        • -8.1% WAF.GR (Siltronic €39.90, -3.50) -- prelim. FY earnings

        • -7.0% UBSG.SW (UBS Group CHF29.55, -2.24) -- Q4 earnings; announces $0.90/sh divi payout and $3B share buyback

        • -7.0% VOD.LN (Vodafone Group £0.65, -0.05) -- Q3 trading update

        • -6.9% CRST.LN (Crest Nicholson Holdings £1.63, -0.12) -- FY earnings

        • -2.3% COLO.B.DC (Coloplast DKK798.80, -19.20) -- Q1 earnings

        • -1.9% ADDT.B.SS (Addtech SEK314.80, -6.20) -- Q3 earnings

        • -1.6% DGE.LN (Diageo £23.28, -0.38) -- H1 earnings; comments on implications of US tariff implementation

        • -1.6% ALVIO.FP (Valerio Therapeutics €0.08, -0.00) -- to discontinue all clinical trials and associated activities, including the ongoing VIO-01 trial

        • -1.2% LDO.IM (Leonardo €30.20, -0.38) -- Airbus working with Goldman Sachs to evaluate potential merger of its space and satellite businesses with Leonardo, Thales -- Bloomberg

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow:

      • Earnings:

        • Benelux: Melexis (MELE.BB)

        • DACHs: Datwyler (DAE.SW), Valiant (VATN.SW), METRO (B4B.GR)

        • Denmark: Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC), Pandora (PNDORA.DC), Vestas Wind Systems (VWS.DC), H. Lundbeck (HLUN.B.DC), Matas (MATAS.DC), Ringkjobing Landbobank (RILBA.DC), Alm. Brand (ALMB.DC), ChemoMetec (CHEMM.DC)

        • Finland: UPM-Kymmene (UPM.FH), Wartsila (WRT1V.FH), Kesko (KESKOB.FH), Alma Media (ALMA.FH)

        • France: TotalEnergies (TTE.FP), Credit Agricole (ACA.FP)

        • Norway: Equinor (EQNR.NO), DNB Bank (DNB.NO), Nordic Semiconductor (NOD.NO)

        • Southern Europe: Banco Santander (SAN.SM), FinecoBank (FBK.IM), Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS.IM), Anima Holding (ANIM.IM)

        • Sweden: Assa Abloy (ASSA.B.SS), Alfa Laval (ALFA.SS), Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (SOBI.SS), AAK (AAK.SS), Husqvarna (HUSQ.B.SS), Munters (MTRS.SS), Loomis (LOOMIS.SS), Vitec Software (VIT.B.SS), AddLife (ALIF.B.SS), Bilia (BILI.A.SS), Bergman & Beving (BERG.B.SS), Norion Bank (NORION.SS), HEBA Fastighets (HEBA.B.SS), Eastnine (EAST.SS), Stillfront Group (SF.SS)

        • UK: GSK (GSK.LN)

      • Trading Update: Nordnet (SAVE.SS), Avanza Bank Holding (AZA.SS), Soitec (SOI.FP), Grainger (GRI.LN)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Spain Jan Unemployment Change 38.7K vs consensus +45.4K and prior (25.3K)

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Mar 25): ($0.41) or (0.56%) to $72.75

      • €-$ +0.0038 or +0.37% to 1.0382

      • £-$ +0.0037 or +0.30% to 1.2486

      • €-£ +0.0004 to 0.8314

      • S&P 500 +0.75%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +4.87%

        • DAX: +8.02%

        • CAC: +7.12%

        • MIB: +7.41%

        • Stoxx 600: +5.60%

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