Feb 04 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open flat to lower amidst Asian equities trading largely higher Tuesday in a volatile session. Hong Kong up 3% at one point before paring around half of those gains after Beijing announced tariffs on a list of US goods. Australia opened higher but dipped into the close to finish lower. Gains elsewhere but boards off their highs. Kospi leading as tech shares rebound, Japan's tech names also leading. India also trading higher. Mainland China exchanges closed. US futures were higher but now down on China tariff news. US dollar lower after Trump postponed Canada, Mexico tariffs; yen weakening, AUD/NZD weaker, yuan offshore weaker. Treasury yields higher, CGBs steady. Crude oil futures sharply lower, precious metals down, industrial metals higher for now. Cryptocurrencies sharply lower again
In geopolitical developments, Trump agreed to pause tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days. Focus also on French politics as lawmakers reach the final stage of negotiating a budget agreement. Budget draft will be debated in National Assembly, and Bayrou is likely to pass the bill without a majority using Art.49.3 risking no-confidence on Wednesday.
In central banks, Riksbank MPC minutes published at 9:30CET. BOE's Mutton panellist at 9:00GMT at the Afore Consulting Conf 'The role of AI in financial services'. Bank of France's Villeroy speech at conf on cash management of small companies. Also on today's agenda, EU's von der Leyen delivers a speech at the EU Ambassadors Conf 2025 whilst EU's Kadis participates in the EP Meeting, 'Normandy: a key region for EU's challenges in the fisheries sector'. In UK, there's MPs questions on Energy Security and Net Zero at 11:30GMT, whilst committee topics includes economic statistics at 10:00, the same time as electoral policy and reform, AI and copyright at 14:00. Oslo security conf sees Norway's PM Støre speak ay 9:00CET
In corporate news, Siltronic (WAF.GR) reports prelim FY24 EBITDA €364M vs FactSet €352.9M and announced proposed dividend of €0.20 for FY 2024. Also in the DACH region, UBS Group (UBSG.SW) released Q4 earnings including Q4 EPS $0.23 vs consensus $0.14; also confirmed financial targets and ambitions for 2026 exit rate and 2028. OMV (OMV.AV) reports Q4 Clean CCS Net Income attributable €555M vs consensus €487M and provided outlook for 2025. Infineon Technologies ( IFX.GR) reports Q1 Adj. EPS €0.33 vs consensus €0.27; guides Q2 revenue €3.6B vs FactSet €3.43B; raises FY revenue growth guidance primarily related to expected stronger US dollar. In France, BNP Paribas (BNP.FP) reports Q4 net income €2.32B vs consensus €2.24B. Amundi (AMUN.FP) reports Q4 adj net income €377M vs consensus €348M and hikes divi by ~2%. Publicis Groupe reports FY headline EPS €7.30 vs consensus €7.25 and raises dividend +5.9% y/y. In Netherlands, TomTom (TOM2.NA) is out with Q4 net income (€5.7M) vs consensus (€2M). Out of the Nordics, Bavarian Nordic A/S (BAVA.DC) announced preliminary 2024 revenue DKK 5.716B vs FactSet DKK 5.30B whilst Coloplast (COLO.B.SC) reports Q1 adj net income DKK1.44B vs FactSet DKK1.30B.
Politics/Macro/World News
EU open to bending fiscal rules to boost defence spending - FT
Trump agrees to pause tariffs on Canada and Mexico but not on China - BBC
EU pushes forward with enforcing AI Act despite Donald Trump's warnings - FT
Bayrou rams through France budget, but should survive no-confidence vote - Reuters; Politico
Latest YouGov/Times voting intention survey marks the first time poll has shown Reform UK in front - YouGov release
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
UBSG.SW (UBS Group) -- reports Q4 EPS $0.23 vs consensus $0.14
WAF.GR (Siltronic) -- reports prelim FY24 EBITDA €364M vs FactSet €352.9M [13 est, €346-364.4M]; guides FY25
MOVE.SW (Medacta Group) -- reports preliminary FY revenue €590.6M vs FactSet €582.5M [4 est, €580.6-587.1M]
ATV.AV (AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik) -- reports Q3 EPS (€0.95) vs year-ago (€1.19)
OMV.AV (OMV) -- reports Q4 Clean CCS Net Income attributable €555M vs consensus €487M
IFX.GR (Infineon Technologies) -- reports Q1 Adj. EPS €0.33 vs consensus €0.27; guides Q2 revenue €3.6B vs FactSet €3.43B; raises FY revenue growth guidance primarily related to expected stronger US dollar
France
DSY.FP (Dassault Systemes) -- reports Q4 EPS €0.40 ex-items vs StreetAccount €0.39
BNP.FP (BNP Paribas) -- reports Q4 net income €2.32B vs consensus €2.24B
MDM.FP (Maisons du Monde) -- reports Q4 revenue €295.4M vs year-ago €330.3M and FactSet €299.0M [1 est]
AMUN.FP (Amundi) -- reports Q4 adj net income €377M vs consensus €348M; hikes divi by ~2%
PUB.FP (Publicis Groupe) -- reports FY headline EPS €7.30 vs consensus €7.25, raises dividend +5.9% y/y; provides 2025 outlook
Nordics
BAVA.DC (Bavarian Nordic A/S) -- announces preliminary 2024 revenue DKK 5.716B vs FactSet DKK 5.30B
BILL.SS (Billerud) -- reports Q4 adjusted EPS SEK2.10 vs FactSet SEK1.77 [5 est, SEK0.63-2.59]
COLO.B.DC (Coloplast) -- reports Q1 adj net income DKK1.44B vs FactSet DKK1.30B; FY24/25 guidance on organic growth of 8-9% and EBIT margin before special items of ~28% unchanged
BONAV.B.SS (Bonava) -- reports Q4 EPS SEK0.49 vs FactSet SEK0.37 [4 est, SEK0.28-0.50]
Benelux
TOM2.NA (TomTom) -- reports Q4 net income (€5.7M) vs consensus (€2M)
Southern Europe
UNI.SM (Unicaja Banco) -- reports FY net income €573M vs FactSet €584.4M [15 est, €539-604M]
expects FY25-FY27 net interest income of over €1.4B and divi pay-out to 60% -- Strategic Plan 2025 - 2027
M&A
AIR.FP (Airbus SE) -- Airbus working with Goldman Sachs to evaluate potential merger of its space and satellite businesses with Leonardo, Thales -- Bloomberg
BP.LN (BP) -- shares close off lows amid renewed circulation of takeover rumors, we're told
INGA.NA (ING Groep) -- ING seeking acquisition opportunities in major European countries - Reuters
CLN.SW (Clariant) -- announces that Lugman Group has withdrawn from the purchase of "Industrial Park Fechenheim"
CVC.NA (CVC Capital Partners) -- At least three European insurance companies now looking at Ethniki Insurance - Euro2day
SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding) -- to apply for a secondary listing of its shares on Euronext Oslo Børs
COFA.FP (Coface) -- signs agreement to acquire Cedar Rose Group; price not disclosed
HUM.SS (Humana AB) -- completes divestment of elderly care units in Finland
Other
SFER.IM (Salvatore Ferragamo) -- announces termination of employment of CEO Marco Gobbetti
EQT.SS (EQT AB) -- completes sale of common stock of Kodiak Gas Services
CVC.NA (CVC Capital Partners) -- Piraeus Financial Holdings continues its assessment regarding the investment in National Insurance
SAF.FP (Safran) -- obtains EASA certification of the first electric motor for new air mobility
DSY.FP (Dassault Systemes) -- Dassault Systèmes reveals "3D UNIV+RSES" and related AI-based services
BNP.FP (BNP Paribas) -- approves the principle of a semi-annual interim dividend starting in FY25
DG.FP (VINCI SA) -- VINCI wins €183M contract to build river access to Port 2000 in Le Havre
ENGI.FP (ENGIE) -- signs 4.3 GW of new Power Purchase agreements (PPAs) in 2024
SMIN.LN (Smiths Group) -- Elliott Management said to have purchased stake in Smiths Group prior to last week's divestment, separation announcement -- FT
Key rating changes
Upgrades
SYENS.BB (Syensqo) -- to overweight from underweight at Morgan Stanley
AZA.SS (Avanza Bank Holding) -- to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
Downgrades
ALIV.SS (Autoliv) -- to hold from buy at Pareto
RKT.LN (Reckitt Benckiser) -- to equal weight from overweight at Barclays
BEAN.SW (BELIMO Holding) -- to reduce from add at Baader Helvea
Initiations
MYCR.SS (Mycronic) -- buy at SEB
VCT.LN (Victrex) -- overweight at Morgan Stanley
Data
Nikkei +0.72% to 38798.37
Hang Seng +2.39% to 20700.12
Shanghai Composite +0.00% to 3250.60
S&P futures (13.0) vs prior close of 6022.3
€-$ (0.0045) or (0.44%) to 1.0298
$-¥ +0.46 or +0.29% to 155.22
€-¥ (0.23) or (0.14%) to 159.84
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