Feb 14 ,2025
Synopsis:
European indices ended mostly mixed to lower Friday. Follows mostly positive close on Thursday. Among EU sectors, autos and miners best performers while health care and insurance the biggest decliners.
Trump made widely anticipated announcement on reciprocal tariffs though absence of details and delayed implementation spun as positives. Implementation delay viewed as a signal there is room for negotiations and Trump said tariffs can be avoided if other countries drop theirs. Reports highlighted EU trade chief Sefcovic spoke to members of Trump's team to find a solution on tariffs. Brussels has pledged a response. Europe still digesting implications of Trump-Putin call on pathway to Ukraine ceasefire agreement.
On a quiet macro calendar, Eurozone second estimate of Q4 GDP revised upward +0.1% q/q vs flash 0.0%, while +0.9% y/y in line with preliminary reading. German wholesale prices rose in January on increase in price of raw materials and food. Final Spanish CPI in line with flash. Elsewhere, UK lender Halifax said first-time house buyers rose by almost a fifth last year, underpinning importance to housing market outlook. UK press reports a giant gas field has been discovered that could add up to £112B to GDP and fuel UK entire gas needs for a decade. UK considers merging financial regulations to ease barriers to growth.
On the reporting front, on a busy French sector, Safran (SAF.FP), Euronext (ENX.FP), Hermes (RMS.FP), Ubisoft Entertainment (UBI.FP) and Eutelsat Communications (ETL.FP) reported their most recent numbers. On the banking front, NatWest Group (NWG.LN) down ~(2%) after FY earnings whilst - still in the UK - Santander (SAN.SM) denied its UK business is for sale after the FT wrote that the Spanish bank did have talks about a potential sale of the UK business with NatWest (NWG.LN); also, HSBC (HSBA.LN) is set to announce $1.5B in annual cost savings as a result of restructuring initiatives.
Elsewhere, Moncler (MONC.IM), United Internet (UTDI.GR), Umicore (UMI.BB) and Norsk Hydro (NHY.NO) were among few other names to update investors. Of note, FT reported that Shein's London IPO plans likely to be delayed amid US crackdown on tariff-free imports of small goods from China.
Looking ahead to next week EU econ-calendar, notable releases on Monday will include, amongst others, Italy Dec trade balance, Spain Dec trade balance, and UK Feb house price index - Rightmove.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Autos & Parts +0.78%, Basic Resources +0.63%, Chemicals +0.44%, Oil & Gas +0.39%, Banks +0.30%, Technology +0.15%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.14%, Financial Svcs +0.13%, Construct & Mtls +0.10%, Travel & Leisure (0.03%), Retail (0.06%), Real Estate (0.11%), Utilities (0.13%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.19%)
Underperformers:
Health Care (1.39%), Insurance (1.25%), Telecom (0.53%), Food & Beverage (0.45%), Media (0.41%)
Macro:
EU:
UK:
HNW confidence in UK economy drops to record low -- FT
Germany:
The surprising fall of Germany's populist far-left party -- The Spectator
France:
Being an Entrepreneur Became Cool in Macron's France. But Will It Last? -- Bloomberg
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+14.3% LEON.SW (Leonteq CHF20.25, +2.53) -- updates on proposals from shareholders ahead of AGM on 27-Mar-25
+12.8% TOM.NO (Tomra Systems NOK190.40, +21.60) -- Q4 earnings
+12.4% XPS.LN (XPS Pensions Group £3.90, +0.43) -- FY trading update
+10.8% VETN.SW (Vetropack Holding CHF28.30, +2.75) -- Berenberg upgrade
+9.5% ROS.AV (Rosenbauer International €38.00, +3.30) -- prelim FY earnings
+9.1% SSH1V.FH (SSH Communications Security €1.20, +0.10) -- Q4 earnings
+7.9% RHM.GR (Rheinmetall €817.00, +60.00)
+6.5% HUH1V.FH (Huhtamaki €38.52, +2.36) -- separates Fiber Foodservice business into two separate segments; Q4 earnings
+6.3% HKFOODS.FH (HKFoods €1.09, +0.07) -- Q4 earnings
+4.3% KTN.GR (Kontron €20.50, +0.85) -- initiated outperform at Oddo
+3.9% PINE.LN (Pinewood Technologies Group £3.43, +0.13) -- trading update; contract
+3.8% FIA1S.FH (Finnair €3.12, +0.11) -- CFO to step down
+3.3% KIT.NO (Kitron NOK38.46, +1.24) -- Norne Securities upgrade
+3.1% AFG.NO (AF Gruppen NOK168.60, +5.00) -- Q4 earnings
+2.9% FPIP.SS (FormPipe Software SEK24.80, +0.70) -- Q4 earnings
+2.7% ERA.FP (Eramet €58.05, +1.55) -- appoint new CEO
+2.3% AFK.NO (Arendals Fossekompani NOK132.00, +3.00) -- Q4 earnings
+2.2% ENX.FP (Euronext €118.30, +2.50) -- Q4 earnings
+1.9% VIK1V.FH (Viking Line €21.40, +0.40) -- Q4 earnings
+1.9% HBR.LN (Harbour Energy £2.43, +0.05) -- resumed buy at Peel Hunt
+1.8% AVAP.LN (Avation £1.41, +0.02) -- secures $85M expandable portfolio finance
+1.6% UBI.FP (Ubisoft Entertainment €11.32, +0.18) -- Q3 sales
Notable Decliners
-55.6% WG.LN (John Wood Group £0.30, -0.36) -- FY trading update
-19.1% ETL.FP (Eutelsat Communications €1.39, -0.33) -- H1 earnings; Chairman to step down
-12.5% GOMX.SS (GomSpace Group SEK3.76, -0.54) -- Q4 earnings
-9.5% TTALO.FH (Terveystalo €10.88, -1.14) -- FY earnings
-9.4% UMI.BB (Umicore €9.60, -0.99) -- FY eanrings
-9.2% HBC.NO (Hofseth BioCare NOK2.77, -0.28) -- Q4 earnings
-9.0% UTDI.GR (United Internet €15.15, -1.49) -- prelim FY earnings
-8.3% ALLIGO.B.SS (Alligo SEK126.00, -11.40) -- Q4 earnings
-8.2% KCC.NO (Klaveness Combination Carriers NOK66.80, -6.00) -- Q4 earnings
-7.1% 1U1.GR (1&1 AG €11.60, -0.88) -- prelim FY earnings
-6.9% SEA1.NO (Sea1 Offshore NOK20.10, -1.50) -- Q4 earnings
-6.3% OPTOMED.FH (Optomed €4.24, -0.28) -- Kepler Cheuvreux and Inderes downgrades
-5.8% GLA1V.FH (Glaston €0.78, -0.05) -- plans a 2:1 reverse share split
-5.6% EMBRAC.B.SS (Embracer Group SEK124.90, -7.35) -- ABG Sundal Collier upgrade
-5.2% FME.GR (Fresenius Medical Care €44.55, -2.45) -- In sympathy: DVA Q4 earnings and outlook
-4.6% SOLG.LN (SolGold £0.07, -0.00) -- Q2 earnings
-4.5% JLP.LN (Jubilee Metals Group £0.04, -0.00) -- operational update at its Zambian copper business
-4.4% SOBI.SS (Swedish Orphan Biovitrum SEK309.40, -14.20) -- Handelsbanken downgrade
-4.2% TIETO.FH (Tietoevry €18.32, -0.81) -- Q4 earnings
-4.1% FNTN.GR (Freenet €29.60, -1.26) -- UBS downgrade
-2.0% NWG.LN (NatWest Group £4.28, -0.09) -- FY earnings;holder UK Government (HMT) reduces stake to 6.98% from 7.98%
-1.7% KDEV.SS (Karolinska Development SEK1.04, -0.02) -- Q4 earnings
EU companies reporting Monday:
Earnings:
Galp Energia (GALP.PL), Ratos (RATO.B.SS), Wilmington (WIL.LN), MONY Group (MONY.LN), Aspo (ASPO.FH), Bakkafrost (BAKKA.NO)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Q4 GDP +0.9% y/y vs preliminary +0.9%
Eurozone Q4 GDP +0.1% q/q vs preliminary 0.0%
Greece Jan CPI +2.7% y/y vs consensus +2.5% and prior +2.6%
Netherlands Q4 Preliminary GDP +1.8% y/y vs consensus +0.6% and prior +1.7%
Spain Jan CPI +2.9% y/y vs prelim +3.0%; +0.2% m/m vs prelim +0.2%
EU Harmonised: +2.9% y/y vs prelim +2.9%; (0.1%) m/m vs prelim (0.1%)
Switzerland Jan PPI (0.3%) y/y vs cons (0.5%) and prior (0.9%); +0.1% m/m vs cons +0.1% and prior 0.0%
Markets:
WTI Crude (25-Mar): ($0.45) or (0.63%) to $70.84
€-$ +0.0036 or +0.34% to 1.0503
£-$ +0.0046 or +0.37% to 1.2612
€-£ (0.0001) to 0.8327
S&P 500 +0.01%
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +6.84%
DAX: +13.08%
CAC: +10.81%
MIB: +11.09%
Stoxx 600: +8.82%
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