Feb 17 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set for a mixed-to-higher open with Asian equities mostly in positive territory Monday. Korea and Taiwan outperforming with semis seeing broad gains. Greater China markets extending their positive run. Banks weighing on ASX while Japan flat. US contracts nudging higher. Note, US markets are closed today for Presidents Day.
Ukraine war in the headlines as Trump administration officials said they are to start Ukraine peace talks in the coming days with Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in Saudi Arabia, however a Ukrainian official told POLITICO the announcement came as a surprise to Kyiv, and there were no plans to send a delegation. The US officials also said there are no plans for representatives from other major European powers to join the talks. Ahead of emergency meeting of European leaders in Paris today, EU Council president Costa said EU must be involved in negotiations in order to map out Europe's future security architecture.
Elsewhere, EU's von der Leyen meets with Gen. Keith Kellogg, US Special Presidential Envoy for Ukraine and Russia. UK Conservative Party leader Badenoch and Reform UK's Farage among the speakers at Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (ARC) conf. Norway's minister of trade, industry and fisheries Myrseth meets with business leaders at 10:00CET with trade with the United States on the agenda.
In central banks, Bundesbank's Nagel speech at 12:00CET at Union International Club, the bank also publishing its latest Monthly Report. Eurogroup meeting with ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone among the participants. There's an informal meeting of the EU's General Affairs Council (through Tue). On ARD at 20:15CET, German federal election candidates Merz, Scholz, Habeck, Weidel separately answer questions posed by a live audience in a town hall format.
In macro data, Rightmove released UK Feb house price index +1.4% y/y vs prior +1.8%; +0.5% m/m vs prior +1.7%. Today also sees Italy and Spain Dec trade balance, Norway Jan trade balance and Sweden Jan unemployment rate out for release
On a light earnings front, Bakkafrost (BAKKA.NO) reported Q4 operational EBIT DKK280M vs FactSet DKK355.6M whilst La Francaise des Jeux (FDJ.FP) is out with FY adjusted EBITDA €792M vs FactSet €740.1M. Rio Tinto (RIO.LN) said its iron ore port, rail, mine operations have resumed
Macro
UK Feb house price index +1.4% y/y vs prior +1.8%; +0.5% m/m vs prior +1.7% - Rightmove
German election: Candidates spar on economy, Ukraine, Vance - DW
Bank of Italy's Panetta says no need for ECB to hold back on interest rate cuts - speech
ECB Watchers Are Now Forecasting Even Lower Rates for 2026 - Bloomberg
Potentially putting Britons in harm's way is a huge responsibility, but we must be ready to do our bit for Europe - Telegraph
Trump team to start Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Saudi Arabia - politico
Macron convenes European leaders for Ukraine summit amid tension with US - Guardian
Costa says Europe needs to negotiate 'new security architecture' with Russia - FT
UK 'ready' to send peace-keepers to Ukraine, PM Starmer says - politico
Treasury seeks clarity on cost of Thames Water renationalisation - FT
Top company news
Earnings/updates
France:
FDJ.FP (La Francaise des Jeux) -- reports FY adjusted EBITDA €792M vs FactSet €740.1M [7 est, €693.8-767M]
Norway:
ORK.NO (Orkla) -- Jotun reports FY24 operating profit NOK6.76B vs year-ago NOK6.43B
BAKKA.NO (Bakkafrost) -- reports Q4 operational EBIT DKK280M vs FactSet DKK355.6M [11 est, DKK301.7-411.5M]
RATO.B.SS (Ratos) -- reports Q4 EPS SEK0.05 ex-items vs FactSet SEK0.25 [4 est, SEK0.14-0.45]
KOSKI.FH (Koskisen) -- reports Q4 EPS €0.07 vs FactSet €0.09 [3 est, €0.07-0.12], cuts dividend, provides 2025 guidance
UK:
RIO.LN (Rio Tinto) -- Rio Tinto's iron ore port, rail, mine operations have resumed
M&A
NOKIA.FH (Nokia) -- EU expected to approve Nokia's $2.3B acquisition of Infinera without conditions - Reuters, citing sources
PST.IM (Poste Italiane) -- to carry out Telecom Italia-Nexi stake swap with Cassa Depositi e Prestiti
AGR.LN (Assura) -- confirms receipt of preliminary, unsolicited approach from KKR
TLGO.SM (Talgo) -- Pegasus and consortium reach agreement for the acquisition of a 29.7% stake in Talgo
ISB.IR (Íslandsbanki) -- Arion Banki expresses interest in merger talks with Íslandsbanki
MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology) -- extends bridge facility and proceeds with strategic M&A process
PST.IM (Poste Italiane) -- In relation to stake swap, Poste Italiane to grant Cassa Depositi €180M cash adjustment - Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter
AMS.SJ (Anglo American Platinum) -- Follow-up: Anglo American Platinum updates on demerger and capital structure
ISB.IR (Íslandsbanki) -- confirms receipt of merger interest from Arion Bank (ARION.IR)
City looking to combine BP, Shell - Mail on Sunday
AMCI seeking to sell an interest in its Fitzroy mining complex - The Australian
Healthcare
PHO.NO (Photocure) -- announces presentation on 14-Feb of new abstract with study results from its U.S. bladder cancer patient registry at the 2025 ASCO in San Francisco
GSK.LN (GSK Plc) -- GSK announces FDA approval of Penmenvy 5-in-1 meningococcal vaccine; CDC ACIP next step
SAN.FP (Sanofi) --
FDA approves Sanofi's Merilog, Merilog Solostar, first US biosimilars of Novolog
FDA issues press release on the approval of Sanofi's Merilog
GLPG.NA (Galapagos) -- holder Tang Capital Management files initial 13D; discloses 7.5% stake - 13D
GNFT.FP (GENFIT) -- announces amendment of the final terms of the dual proposal to the 2025 OCEANEs holders
ABVX.FP (Abivax) -- SEC filing: SCHEDULE 13D/A (Filed by Sofinnova Crossover I)
IPH.FP (Innate Pharma) -- FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy Designation to Innate Pharma's lacutamab to treat r/r SS
BAVA.DC (Bavarian Nordic A/S) -- receives US FDA approval of Chikungunya vaccine for persons aged 12 and older
9995.HK (RemeGen) -- presents updated data from Phase II trial of DV plus immunotherapy as perioperative regimen for MIBC
Other
NB2.GR (Northern Data) -- appoints John Hoffman as new COO
CLARI.FP (Clariane) -- amends and extends its syndicated facility and issues a new real-estate credit line
OUT1V.FH (Outokumpu) -- cleared out of arbitration proceedings regarding Fennovoima
VOD.LN (Vodafone Group) -- SEC filing: SCHEDULE 13D/A (Filed by Emirates Telecommunications Group Co PJSC)
STLAM.IM (Stellantis) -- SEC filing: SCHEDULE 13D/A (Filed by Bpifrance Participations SA)
TEF.SM (Telefonica) -- invokes the Ordinary Insolvency Procedure of Telefónica del Perú
BNP.FP (BNP Paribas) -- investors concerned about CEO succession planning - Reuters
RHM.GR (Rheinmetall) -- expects to continue growing even faster than previously thought as the US calls on Europe to boost defence spending - Reuters
AV.LN (Aviva) -- Aviva's Indian unit ordered to pay $7.5M (£6M) in back taxes and penalties over fake invoices - Reuters
ACE.IM (ACEA) -- Eni's Plenitude considering buying Acea Energia - Milano Finanza
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $152.8M, +94.3% y/y - Box Office Mojo
Regional Gaming Revenues - New Jersey January 2025
Key rating changes
Upgrades
AKVA.NO (AKVA Group) -- buy from hold at Pareto
FXPO.LN (Ferrexpo) -- buy from hold at Peel Hunt
HSBC upgrades DEMANT.DC; downgrades GN.DC, SOON.SW
KRX.ID (Kingspan Group) -- to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan
Downgrades
TOM.NO (Tomra Systems) --
sell from hold at Nordea
sell from hold at SEB
NESTE.FH (Neste) -- to reduce from accumulate at Inderes
CBK.GR (Commerzbank) -- to market perform from outperform at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
HUH1V.FH (Huhtamaki) -- to hold from buy at Danske Bank
WHA.NA (Wereldhave) -- to neutral from buy at Van Lanschot Kempen
Initiations
JD.LN (JD Sports Fashion) -- hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Oddo initiates BYG.LN, SAFE.LN
Data
Nikkei +0.06% to 39174.25
Hang Seng (0.15%) to 22585.49
Shanghai Composite +0.05% to 3348.31
S&P futures +12.3 vs prior close of 6132.0
€-$ +0.0005 or +0.05% to 1.0493
$-¥ (0.48) or (0.31%) to 151.78
€-¥ (0.43) or (0.27%) to 159.24
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