Feb 20 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mixed to mostly lower. Sweden +0.6%, Spain +0.3%, Portugal +0.2% and France +0.2% among gainers. UK (0.6%), Austria (0.9%), Netherlands (0.4%) and Germany (0.5%) among the decliners. Follows biggest drop for European markets in two months on Wednesday. US equities down in Thursday midday trading, near worst levels. Follows stocks finishing mostly higher in another fairly uneventful session on Wednesday (though S&P set a fresh record high). Oil gained. Gold pulled back from fresh all time, though still firmer on the session. Industrial metals higher.
Focus remains on geopolitical developments. European leaders offered support to Ukraine President Zelenskiy after Trump criticism on Wednesday. UK and France are drawing up plans for a European-led "reassurance force", which will include air support and troops at major Ukraine cities, ports and critical infrastructure. UK PM Starmer and French President Macron expected to present Ukraine plans to Trump in a visit to the White House next week. Also, Trump added levies on lumber and forest products to the mix from earlier this week and talked up potential for new China trade deal.
French PM Bayrou survived another confidence vote over recent controversial remarks on migration. More discussions in UK press on fiscal pressures amid weak growth backdrop. Survey by Baker Tilly shows majority of German industrial firms considering relocating activities abroad. ECB's Stournaras sees rates dropping to 2% in 2025. Macro data includes German PPI miss and lowest UK consumer confidence since Labour government came to power.
On the corporate front, Carrefour shares down ~(9%) after it reported mixed FY results and issued soft guidance. Focus on group's strategic review. Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG.GR) shares also lower today on back of downbeat 2025 guidance; the group also issued a strategy update. Airbus (AIR.FP) earnings with mixed takeaways; shares lower. BE Semiconductor (BESI.NA) shares opened sharply lower after the company reported a shortfall on Q4 orders; shares however pared losses to close marginally positive. Among notable gainers pn back of earnings/updates were Zurich Insurance (ZURN.SW), Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.LN), Repsol (REP.SM), Centrica (CNA.LN) and Schneider Electric (SU.FP). Elsewhere, miners in focus: Anglo American (AAL.LN) reported FY earnings and also agreed to merge Los Bronces copper mine in Chile with state-backed Codelco's Andina mine, adding 120,000 tonnes of copper production per year from 2030. Rio Tinto (RIO.LN) also reported FY results; resisted shareholder push to end dual listing amid earnings drop..
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Basic Resources +0.61%, Real Estate +0.31%, Consumer Products and Services +0.30%, Retail +0.19%, Utilities +0.16%, Telecom +0.13%, Construct & Mtls +0.10%, Insurance (0.08%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco (0.14%), Technology (0.19%)
Underperformers:
Media (0.88%), Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores (0.84%), Travel & Leisure (0.69%), Autos & Parts (0.49%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.39%), Financial Svcs (0.38%), Energy(0.38%), Banks (0.25%), Health Care (0.22%),
Macro:
Central banks
ECB's Makhlouf Warns That Disinflation Process Faces Dangers - Bloomberg
UK
Germany
YouGov's final MRP of the 2025 German election shows Merz on course to be next chancellor -- link
Majority of industrial companies in Germany are considering relocating activities abroad - Handelsblatt
SPD politicians demand veto right for coalition agreement with CDU -- Welt
Markets
European IPOs Show Positive Signs After Bumpy Start to 2025 - Bloomberg
EU
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+19.0% IDEX.NO (IDEX Biometrics NOK0.13, +0.02) -- production order of 10,000 units from a smart card technology, security and ID company based in Middle-East & Africa
+15.3% ZAP.NO (Zaptec NOK20.40, +2.70) -- Pareto upgrade
+13.4% SBMO.NA (SBM Offshore €20.78, +2.45) -- FY earnings; FPSO Almirante Tamandaré producing and on hire
+12.7% ISS.DC (ISS A/S DKK163.70, +18.50) -- FY earnings; DKK 2.5B share buyback program
+11.3% MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology CHF1.78, +0.18) -- extends bridge facility; signs first supply agreement for Italy with IBC SOLAR
+10.3% BIOA.B.SS (BioArctic SEK259.40, +24.20) -- FTC clears BioArctic's outlicensing of its PyroGlu-Aß antibody program to Bristol Myers Squibb
+8.5% BIOT.SS (Biotage SEK117.90, +9.20) -- Handelsbanken upgrade
+7.8% REP.SM (Repsol €13.13, +0.96) -- Q4 earnings
+6.7% ENRO.SS (Eniro Group SEK0.54, +0.03) -- Q4 earnings; appoints Carlsquare to evaluate the separate listing of Dynava
+6.5% NK.FP (Imerys €29.92, +1.82) -- Groupe Bruxelles Lambert considering buying out minority shareholders of Imerys - Bloomberg
+6.3% WG.LN (John Wood Group £0.26, +0.02) -- CFO resigns; $120M engineering contract extension from Shell UK
+6.0% ERA.FP (Eramet €56.85, +3.20) -- FY earnings
+5.6% CNA.LN (Centrica £1.44, +0.08) -- FY earnings; additioanl £500M share buyback; Sale and Purchase agreement with Petrobras
+5.1% TKO.FP (Tikehau Capital €22.50, +1.10) -- FY earnings
+5.0% FFARM.NA (ForFarmers €3.78, +0.18) -- FY earnings
+4.9% GGP.LN (Greatland Gold £0.09, -0.00) -- drilling results
+4.7% FLS.DC (FLSmidth & Co. DKK381.60, +17.00) -- Q4 earnings
+4.4% BSKP.SW (Basler Kantonalbank CHF75.60, +3.20) -- FY earnings
+4.3% NTGY.SM (Naturgy Energy Group €25.50, +1.06) -- FY earnings
+3.7% CMBN.SW (Cembra Money Bank CHF95.90, +3.45) -- FY earnings
+3.6% NN.NA (NN Group €47.27, +1.65) -- H2 earnings
+3.0% UHR.SW (Swatch Group CHF171.50, +5.00) -- Jan Swiss Watch Exports +4.1% to CHF1.99B
+3.0% SU.FP (Schneider Electric €254.60, +7.40) -- FY earnings
+2.7% SAFE.LN (Safestore Holdings £6.00, +0.16) -- trading update
+2.5% AAL.LN (Anglo American £24.29, +0.59) -- FY earnings; MoU with Chilean state-owned mining company Codelco
+2.1% KBX.GR (Knorr-Bremse €81.25, +1.70) -- Q4 earnings
+2.0% ZURN.SW (Zurich Insurance Group CHF575.20, +11.40) -- FY earnings
+0.7% BESI.NA (BE Semiconductor Industries €117.00, +0.80) -- Q4 earnings
+0.2% PNE3.GR (PNE €12.76, +0.02) -- FY guidance
Notable Decliners
-38.5% CWR.LN (Ceres Power Holdings £0.81, -0.50) -- Robert Bosch to end its partnership with Ceres and divest its minority holding of 17.44% in an orderly manner
-37.3% ZOO.LN (Zoo Digital Group £0.17, -0.10) -- trading update
-25.5% GSF.NO (Grieg Seafood NOK49.20, -16.80) -- Q4 earnings; contemplating NOK 1.5 - 2.0B hybrid bond to strengthen equity and financial flexibility
-22.6% CBRAIN.DC (cBrain DKK151.00, -44.20) -- Q4 earnings
-15.7% INDV.LN (Indivior £7.32, -1.36) -- Q4 earnings
-9.4% AGN.NA (Aegon €5.86, -0.61) -- H2 earnings
-8.8% CA.FP (Carrefour €12.50, -1.21) -- FY earnings; Oddo downgrade
-8.6% D6H.GR (Datagroup €41.50, -3.90) -- Q1 earnings
-8.4% ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris €105.10, -9.60) -- FY earnings
-8.1% OET.NO (Okeanis Eco Tankers NOK248.50, -22.00) -- Q4 earnings
-8.0% KAMUX.FH (Kamux €2.60, -0.23) -- Q4 earnings
-6.9% FNM.SS (Ferronordic SEK62.10, -4.60) -- Q4 earnings
-6.6% KRN.GR (Krones €123.80, -8.80) -- prelim FY earnings
-5.5% VPK.NA (Royal Vopak €39.70, -2.30) -- Van Lanschot Kempen downgrade
-5.2% AFG.NO (AF Gruppen NOK150.80, -8.20) -- ABG Sundal Collier downgrade
-4.9% VSSAB.B.SS (Viking Supply Ships SEK90.20, -4.60) -- Q4 earnings
-4.6% NLFSK.DC (Nilfisk Holding DKK103.20, -5.00) -- Q4 earnings
-4.3% VRLA.FP (Verallia €27.16, -1.22) -- FY earnings
-4.1% BB.FP (Bic €63.20, -2.70) -- CIC Market Solutions downgrade
-3.9% CATE.SS (Catena SEK446.00, -18.00) -- Q4 earnings
-3.7% BURE.SS (Bure Equity SEK389.40, -15.00) -- Q4 earnings
-2.7% TEN.IM (Tenaris €18.19, -0.51) -- Q4 earnings
-2.6% XBRANE.SS (Xbrane Biopharma SEK0.15, -0.00) -- Q4 earnings
-2.5% GOFORE.FH (Gofore €21.35, -0.55) -- Q4 earnings
-2.3% AIR.FP (Airbus SE €165.08, -3.84) -- Q4 earnings
-1.2% DAI-FRA (17.00, -0.20) -- Q4 earnings
-0.8% TECN.SW (Tecan Group CHF206.20, -1.60) -- Deutsche Bank downgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: Cofinimmo (COFB.BB), Heijmans (HEIJM.NA), Brunel International (BRNL.NA)
France: Air Liquide (AI.FP)
DACHs: Sika (SIKA.SW), Allreal Holding (ALLN.SW), Liechtensteinische Landesbank (LLBN.SW), BB Biotech (BION.SW), Calida (CALN.SW), Lang & Schwarz (LUS1.GR)
Nordics: Sagax (SAGA.B.SS), Elekta (EKTA.B.SS), engcon (ENGCON.B.SS), RaySearch Laboratories (RAY.B.SS), Synsam (SYNSAM.SS), Ework (EWRK.SS), Cavotec (CCC.SS), Paxman (PAX.SS), GARO (GARO.SS), Bjorn Borg (BORG.SS), NKT (NKT.DC), DFDS (DFDS.DC), Scanfil (SCANFL.FH)
Southern Europe: Poste Italiane (PST.IM), Semapa Sociedade de Investimento e Gestao (SEM.PL)
UK/Ireland: Standard Chartered (STAN.LN), Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.LN), Kingspan (KRX.ID)
CMD/events: Poste Italiane (PST.IM)
Data:
Economics:
Denmark Q4 Preliminary GDP +4.1% y/y vs consensus +2.6% and prior +3.1%
Switzerland Jan Trade Balance CHF6.12B vs consensus CHF3.6B and prior revised CHF3.48B from CHF3.49B
Netherlands Jan Unemployment Rate 3.8% vs consensus 3.7% and prior 3.7%
Germany Jan PPI +0.5% y/y vs consensus +1.3% and prior +0.8%
Switzerland Jan Trade Balance CHF6.12B vs consensus CHF3.6B and prior revised CHF3.48B from CHF3.49B
Jan Swiss Watch Exports +4.1% to CHF1.99B
Markets:
WTI Crude (Mar 25): +$0.75 or +1.04% to $73.00
€-$ +0.0047 or +0.45% to 1.0471
£-$ +0.0052 or +0.41% to 1.2639
€-£ +0.0002 to 0.8284
S&P 500 (0.87%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +5.99%
DAX: +12.08%
CAC: +10.05%
MIB: +11.88%
Stoxx 600: +8.55%
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