Feb 20 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open mixed amidst Asia markets trending lower Thursday. Japan leading the list of decliners amid hawkish BOJ talk, steep losses in Hong Kong stocks although most off their lows. Mainland China benchmarks mixed. South Korea, Taiwan down, Australia at a month-long low. India opening lower again, Southeast Asia down. US futures lower. US dollar dipping following overnight spike, yen at three-month low, yuan strengthening. Treasuries mixed, JGB 10Y yields above 1.4% and its highest in 15 years, CGB yields also consolidating recent gains. Crude oil futures down, gold higher, industrial metals edging higher.
Geopolitical developments in focus. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, President Trump voiced openness to a deal with China. However he did not provide color on what a deal would involve and whether it would entail a tariff rollback (Bloomberg).
In central banks in Europe, Riksbank's Breman speech at 12:00CET at event organised by Norrbotten Chamber of Commerce. Ireland central bank's Makhlouf speech at 13:00GMT at event hosted by Institute of International and European Affairs, BOE's Mills speech at 15:40GMT at the UK T+1 Accelerated Settlement Market event. Bundesbank's Nagel panellist at 17:00CET at event hosted by Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. Belgium central bank's Wunsch speech at 18:00CET in connection with presentation of the 2024 Annual Report. FIW-Research Conf. on International Economics (through Fri).
Macroeconomic updates include: UK Jan CPI/RPI/PPI input/output, Finland Jan final CPI.
On the political front, Germany's ministry of finance releases its latest monthly report and German federal election tv debate at 20:00CET (all seven parties) on ARD. EU's Dombrovskis meets with Netherlands central bank's Knot whilst EU's Virkkunen participates in the Economic Council of Finland and EU's Šuica participates in the 19th Parliamentary Assembly of the Mediterranean. Techarena 2025 (through Fri), speakers include several company execs and politicians.
In corporate news, Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN.SW) reports FY net income attributable $5.81B vs consensus $5.68B and hikes divi by 8% to CHF28 per share. Mercedes-Benz Group (BMG.GR) reports Q4 EPS €2.57 vs FactSet €2.48, cuts dividend (19%) y/y and announces share buyback. Still in the DACH region, AMAG Austria Metall (AMAG.AV), Krones (KRN.GR) and Knorr-Bremse (KBX.GR) released FY/Q4 earnings, with the latter guiding 2025 revenues between €8.10-8.40B vs FactSet €8.33B. In France, Airbus SE (AIR.FP) reports Q4 EBIT €2.56B ex-items vs consensus €2.60B. Carrefour (CA.FP) reports FY Adj. Net Income €1.08B vs FactSet €1.14B and anticipates 2025 slight growth in EBITDA, ROI and Net Free Cash Flow. Schneider Electric (SU.FP) reports FY adj EPS €8.32 vs consensus €8.09 and hikes divi by 11%. In the Benelux, Aegon (AGN.NA) reports H2 operating capital generation (before holding funding & op. exp.) €658M vs consensus €636M and hikes divi by 19%.
Politics/Macro/World News
Can the EU sanctions regime hold up without the US? - FT
Trump's Zelenskyy tirade proves too much for European leaders to stomach - Politico
UK Consumer Confidence sinks to lowest since Labour came to power - Bloomberg
Scholz and Merz debate security, policing, attacks and migration - DW
Manufacturing on the ballot in Germany - FT
Netherlands Jan Unemployment Rate 3.8% vs consensus 3.7% and prior 3.7%
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
B2W.GR (Borr Drilling) -- reports Q4 net income €26.3M vs year-ago €9.7M
KBX.GR (Knorr-Bremse) -- reports Q4 EPS €0.11 vs StreetAccount €1.01; guides 2025 Revenues between €8.10-8.40B vs FactSet €8.33B
KRN.GR (Krones) -- reports preliminary FY EBITDA €537.1M vs FactSet €540.5M [12 est, €533-564M]; guides 2025
CMBN.SW (Cembra Money Bank) -- reports FY Net income CHF170.4M vs FactSet CHF166.6M [3 est, CHF164.0-168M]
HYQ.GR (Hypoport) -- reports preliminary FY EBIT ~ €17M, +23% vs FactSet €16.4M [7 est, €15.8-17.2M]
PNE3.GR (PNE) -- guides FY24 Group EBITDA €60M-70M vs prior guidance €40M-50M and FactSet €47.3M [4 est, €44.5-51.2M]
AMAG.AV (AMAG Austria Metall) -- reports FY net income €43.2M vs FactSet €47.2M [3 est, €35.6-58.4M]; Group's 2025 operating profit will very likely be below the 2024 level
ZURN.SW (Zurich Insurance Group) -- reports FY net income attributable $5.81B vs consensus $5.68B; hikes divi by 8% to CHF28 per share
MBG.GR (Mercedes-Benz Group) -- reports Q4 EPS €2.57 vs FactSet €2.48 [5 est, €2.31-2.72], cuts dividend (19%) y/y, announces share buyback, guides 2025
France
AIR.FP (Airbus SE) -- reports Q4 EBIT €2.56B ex-items vs consensus €2.60B
CA.FP (Carrefour) -- reports FY Adj. Net Income €1.08B vs FactSet €1.14B; anticipates 2025 slight growth in EBITDA, ROI and Net Free Cash Flow
ADP.FP (Aeroport de Paris) -- reports FY attributable net income €342M vs FactSet €336.7M [15 est, €100-682.1M]; confirms guidance for Recurring EBITDA annual growth of over 7.0% in 2025
VRLA.FP (Verallia) -- reports FY adjusted net income €283M vs FactSet €270.1M
COV.FP (Covivio) -- reports FY Recurring EPS €4.47 vs year-ago €4.47
OPM.FP (OPmobility) -- reports FY net income attributable €170M vs FactSet €173.9M [10 est, €165.5-188.7M]
POXEL.FP (Poxel) -- reports FY revenue €6.6M vs year-ago €2.0M
ERA.FP (Eramet) -- reports FY net income €144M vs FactSet €82.6M [4 est, €41.1-111.9M]
ALMCP.FP (McPhy Energy) -- reports FY revenue €13.1M vs FactSet €11.2M [2 est, €11.2-11.3M]
SU.FP (Schneider Electric) -- reports FY adj EPS €8.32 vs consensus €8.09; hikes divi by 11% and guides FY25
Nordics
ZEAL.DC (Zealand Pharma) -- reports FY adjusted net income (DKK1.27B) vs FactSet (DKK1.20B)
AUTO.NO (AutoStore Holdings) -- reports Q4 EPS $0.01 vs FactSet $0.01 [5 est, $0.01-0.03]
OET.NO (Okeanis Eco Tankers) -- reports Q4 EPS $0.41 ex-items vs FactSet $0.46 [4 est, $0.40-0.54]
BETCO.SS (Better Collective) -- reports final FY earnings in line with prelim. release; EPS €0.53 vs FactSet €0.51; guides 2025, provides adjusted long-term guidance
GSF.NO (Grieg Seafood) -- reports Q4 EPS (NOK14.2) vs year-ago NOK4.9
FLS.DC (FLSmidth & Co.) -- reports Q4 net income DKK360M vs FactSet DKK270.2M [8 est, DKK227-317M]
ISS.DC (ISS A/S) -- reports FY revenue DKK83.76B vs FactSet DKK82.42B [11 est, DKK81.16-83.41B]
Benelux
AGN.NA (Aegon) -- reports H2 operating capital generation (before holding funding & op. exp.) €658M vs consensus €636M; hikes divi by 19%
AZE.BB (Azelis Group) -- reports Q4 net income €51.7M, +55% vs year-ago €33.4M
FLOW.NA (Flow Traders) -- reports January market statistics
KIN.BB (Kinepolis Group) -- reports FY adjusted net income €41.8M, (28%) vs year-ago €58.0M
SBMO.NA (SBM Offshore) -- reports FY EPS $5.08 vs consensus $4.25
NN.NA (NN Group) -- reports H2 operating capital generation €964M vs consensus €932M; hikes final divi by 8%
M&A
NK.FP (Imerys) -- Groupe Bruxelles Lambert considering buying out minority shareholders of Imerys - Bloomberg
SHL.GR (Siemens Healthineers) -- Siemens to sell ~22M shares in Siemens Healthineers representing ~2% of Siemens Healthineers AG's issued share capital by way of an accelerated bookbuilding process
VRLA.FP (Verallia) -- reports FY adjusted net income €283M vs FactSet €270.1M
ALMCP.FP (McPhy Energy) -- reports FY revenue €13.1M vs FactSet €11.2M [2 est, €11.2-11.3M]
Healthcare
AZN.LN (AstraZeneca) -- NICE issues recommendations on durvalumab (Imfinzi) for untreated extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer in adults
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- Bayer expects significant growth from expanded pharmaceutical business in the US - Handelsblatt
BIOA.B.SS (BioArctic) -- FTC clears BioArctic's outlicensing of its PyroGlu-Aß antibody program to Bristol Myers Squibb
FYB.GR (Formycon) -- presents clinical data on ustekinumab biosimilar FYB202 at the ECCO Congress
Other
ML.FP (Cie Generale des Etablissements Michelin SA) -- Michelin publishes global tire market data for Jan
UCG.IM (UniCredit) -- could increase pace of exit from Russia if there is a breakthrough in Ukraine war - FT, citing CEO
WG.LN (John Wood Group) -- announces resignation of CFO Arvind Balan effective immediately
MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology) -- signs first supply agreement for Italy with IBC SOLAR
extends bridge facility; calls bondholders' meetings to defer interest payments
Key rating changes
Upgrades
STMN.SW (Straumann Holding) -- to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley
Downgrades
UBSG.SW (UBS Group) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
Data
Nikkei (1.24%) to 38678.04
Hang Seng (1.13%) to 22685.00
Shanghai Composite +0.09% to 3354.53
S&P futures (20.0) vs prior close of 6163.0
€-$ +0.0007 or +0.07% to 1.0431
$-¥ (1.40) or (0.93%) to 150.07
€-¥ (1.37) or (0.87%) to 156.51
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