Feb 27 ,2025
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mostly lower, near worst levels. Autos/parts, media and retail the big decliners; industrials goods/services a standout gainer. Follows firmer close on Thursday. US equities mostly higher in Thursday midday trading. NVDA a drag post-earnings.
Focus on tariffs after Trump said at first cabinet meeting Canada and Mexico tariffs will proceed with 2-Apr start date, which seemed to contradict proposed early March date. Added that US will also impose 25% tariffs on EU, singling out autos. However, Trump softened his rhetoric on China, refuting reports about investment and curbs and saying he'd welcome Chinese investment in US. Trump also refused to commit to protecting Taiwan from an invasion. UK Chancellor Reeves said the government wants to boost trade with the US, as it tries to avoid tariffs. Other theme in focus is AI secular growth with NVDA flagging fully ramped Blackwell, which it said is seeing "extraordinary demand", while also putting a positive spin on the DeepSeek breakthrough.
Attention also on Ukraine developments, with UK PM Starmer in Washington to hold talks with Trump. Starmer warned ahead of trip that without a US security guarantees, Russia might invade Ukraine again. Trump also confirmed Wednesday that Ukraine President Zelenskiy will visit the US on Friday to sign a draft minerals deal but does not include security guarantees and Trump ruled out Ukraine joining NATO. US headline January durable goods orders topped forecasts, though ex-transport was flat against expectations for a monthly rise. Core capital-goods orders better than expected though December revised lower. Weekly initial jobless claims jumped to a higher-than-expected 242K from prior week's 220K; continuing claims declined vs consensus for a rise.
On macro data front, Eurozone M3 money supply growth expanded in January, Spanish CPI edged up as expected, French PPI firmer-than-forecast and Swiss Q4 GDP slowed. Eurozone economic sentiment indicator beats forecast, though consumer confidence remains weak.
A busy morning for earnings with DACHs companies kicking off the session, Kion Group (KGX.GR), Nordex (NDX1.GR), Swiss Re (SREN.SW), Beiersdorf (BEI,GR) and FORVIA HELLA (HLE.GR) are amongst other in the region to update investors with their latest numbers. In France, AXA (CS.FP), Wendel (MF.FP), ENGIE (ENGI.FP), Technip Energies (TE.FP) and Veolia Environnement (VIE.FP) reported FY/Q4 numbers.
In Southern Europe, EDP-Energias de Portugal (EDPR.PL), Pirelli & C. (PIRC.IM), Telefonica (TEF.SM), Prysmian (PRY.IM), Fluidra (FDR.SM), Endesa (ELE.SM), Iberdrola (IBE.SM) and Eni (ENI.IM) reported end of year results. In Benelux, AMG Critical Materials (AMG.NA), Aalberts (AALB.NA), and UCB (UCB.BB) released FY/Q4 earnings report. In the UK, WPP Group (WPP.LN), Ocado Group (OCDO.LN), Haleon (HLN.LN), Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.LN), London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG.LN) reported Q4/FY numbers.
In M&A, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) was holding talks about investing in the aerostructures unit of Leonardo (LDO.IM). In other corporate developments, EXOR (EXO.NA) announced completion of the sale of ~ 7M Ferrari (RACE.IM) common shares to institutional investors for total proceeds of €3B.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 24-Feb to 28-Feb attached)International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.LN), Pearson (PSON.LN), Rightmove (RMV.LN), Holcim (HOLN.SW), Leroy Seafood Group (LSG.NO), Austevoll Seafood (AUSS.NO), , Allianz (ALV.GR), BASF (BAS.GR), Casino, Guichard-Perrachon (CO.FP), Forvia (FRVIA.FP), Ackermans & van Haaren (ACKB.BB) and Shurgard Self Storage (SHUR.BB) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will includeGermany Feb preliminary CPI, unemployment change, Jan retail sales, France Q4 final GDP, Feb preliminary CPI, Italy Feb preliminary CPI, Switzerland Feb economic sentiment, Jan retail sales, Feb leading indicator - KOF, Sweden Q4 final GDP, Jan retail sales, Finland Q4 final GDP, Norway Jan retail sales, Denmark Jan unemployment rate, Austria Q4 final GDP, Jan PPI, Norway Feb manufacturing PMI, Belgium Q4 final GDP, Greece Jan PPI, Dec retail sales, Ireland Q4 final GDP, Feb preliminary HICP, Jan retail sales, Portugal Q4 final GDP, Feb preliminary CPI, UK Feb house price index - Nationwide.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Telecom +0.74%, Travel & Leisure +0.73%, Oil & Gas +0.45%, Real Estate +0.05%, Health Care +0.08%, Financial Svcs (0.08%), Insurance (0.11%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.29%), Banks (0.32%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.42%), Food & Beverage (0.50%),
Underperformers:
Autos & Parts (3.81%), Technology (2.20%), Media (2.14%), Retail (1.95%), Basic Resources (1.49%), Chemicals (1.30%), Construct & Mtls (0.69%), Utilities (0.51%),
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
Jailed Kurdish leader calls for group to disarm, in major shift that could shake up Turkey and Middle East - The Guardian
Putin says 'western elites' undermining peace talks - The Telegraph
Central Banks
ECB Officials Deemed It Safe to Keep Calling Policy Restrictive - Bloomberg
EU
Zelenskyy invited to March 6 EU summit on defense and Ukraine - Politico
EU Commission on talks in India - Handelsblatt
UK
Germany
When two fight over the party chairmanship, the compromise candidate is happy - Handelsblatt
German poll winner Merz's abrasive style could hamper coalition building - Reuters
Austria
Austrian centrist parties reach deal to govern without far right - Reuters
Hungary
Hungary to Miss Budget Goal Again on Pre-Election Tax Breaks - Bloomberg
Serbia
US postpones sanctions on Serbian oil company, says Vučić - Politico
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+22.0% VU.FP (VusionGroup €204.20, +36.70) -- FY earnings
+15.4% RR.LN (Rolls-Royce Holdings £7.28, +0.97) -- FY earnings
+14.0% GRF.SM (Grifols €10.95, +1.34) -- FY earnings
+11.5% SESG.FP (SES €4.31, +0.44) -- holder Appaloosa LP submits proxy proposals
+10.8% SUN.SW (Sulzer CHF161.60, +15.80) -- FY earnings
+10.5% GDS.FP (Ramsay Générale de Santé €10.70, +1.02) -- H1 earnings; explores strategic options for 52.8% stake in Ramsay Générale de Santé
+10.2% IDR.SM (Indra Sistemas €20.72, +1.91) -- Q4 earnings; Alantra Equities upgrade
+8.1% IPS.FP (Ipsos €48.48, +3.62) -- FY earnings; acquires Ipec
+8.0% CFEB.BB (Cie d'Entreprises CFE €7.00, +0.52) -- FY earnings
+6.8% AOJ.B.DC (Brødrene A & O Johansen DKK87.50, +5.60) -- Q4 earnings
+6.8% AMG.NA (AMG Critical Materials €17.32, +1.11) -- FY earnings
+6.2% LSEG.LN (London Stock Exchange Group £117.90, +6.85) -- FY earnings
+5.7% FGR.FP (Eiffage €96.62, +5.22) -- FY earnings
+5.2% ENGI.FP (ENGIE €17.40, +0.87) -- FY earnings
+5.0% PIRC.IM (Pirelli & C. €6.12, +0.29) -- FY earnings
+4.3% AV.LN (Aviva £5.47, +0.23) -- FY earnings
+4.3% BINV.SS (BioInvent International SEK25.50, +1.05) -- Q4 earnings
+4.1% UNI.SM (Unicaja Banco €1.69, +0.07) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+3.9% SRP.LN (Serco Group £1.65, +0.06) -- FY earnings
+3.8% WIL.LN (Wilmington £3.56, +0.13) -- launches up-to-£5M buyback
+3.8% LDO.IM (Leonardo €38.92, +1.41) -- Saudi Arabia's PIF weighs investment in Leonardo's aerostructures division -- Bloomberg
+3.6% EMG.LN (Man Group £2.17, +0.08) -- FY earnings
+3.4% BEI.GR (Beiersdorf €131.50, +4.35) -- FY earnings
+3.3% ANP.LN (Anpario £4.65, +0.15) -- initiated buy at Singer Capital Markets
+3.3% A3M.SM (ATRESMEDIA €4.91, +0.16) -- FY earnings
+3.1% VK.FP (Vallourec €19.15, +0.58) -- Q4 earnings
+2.5% BFSA.GR (Befesa €23.60, +0.58) -- Q4 earnings
+1.6% OHLA.SM (Obrascon Huarte Lain €0.46, +0.01) -- FY earnings
Trading Lower:
-20.3% AIXA.GR (Aixtron €11.46, -2.93) -- Q4 earnings; Chairman to resign
-17.1% OCDO.LN (Ocado Group £2.77, -0.57) -- FY earnings
-15.6% WPP.LN (WPP Group £6.50, -1.20) -- FY earnings
-12.9% IDEX.NO (IDEX Biometrics NOK0.08, -0.01) -- Q4 earnings
-11.7% EDPR.PL (EDP Renovaveis €8.34, -1.11) -- FY earnings; moderates pace of investment to 3.5 GW in 2025-26 - slides; Alantra Equities downgrade
-11.6% PRY.IM (Prysmian €57.66, -7.52) -- FY earnings
-10.9% SOP.FP (Sopra Steria Group €157.20, -19.20) -- FY earnings
-9.9% HEX.NO (Hexagon Composites NOK25.40, -2.80) -- holder Mitsui sells 12.6M shares at NOK25/sh for ~ NOK315M
-9.8% VLK.NA (Van Lanschot Kempen €44.10, -4.80) -- FY earnings
-9.4% ONCO.SS (Oncopeptides SEK1.69, -0.18) -- Q4 earnings
-9.0% AALB.NA (Aalberts €33.40, -3.30) -- FY earnings
-8.4% SK.FP (SEB €85.65, -7.85) -- FY earnings
-8.3% CTY1S.FH (Citycon €3.11, -0.28) -- Q4 earnings
-8.3% CRBN.NA (Corbion €21.54, -1.96) -- Q4 earnings
-7.5% PCIB.NO (PCI Biotech Holding NOK1.48, -0.12) -- FY earnings
-7.5% RHIM.LN (RHI Magnesita £34.70, -2.80) -- FY earnings
-7.4% MTRO.LN (Metro Bank Holdings £0.90, -0.07) -- FY earnings
-6.2% JUP.LN (Jupiter Fund Management £0.76, -0.05) -- FY earnings; commences £13.9M share buyback programme
-5.8% HWDN.LN (Howden Joinery Group £7.91, -0.49) -- FY earnings
-4.8% GNS.LN (Genus £17.42, -0.88) -- H1 earnings
-4.8% AKE.FP (Arkema €79.40, -4.00) -- Q4 earnings
-4.4% EDP.PL (EDP-Energias de Portugal €3.05, -0.14) -- FY earnings
-4.3% BYS.SW (Bystronic CHF300.50, -13.50) -- FY earnings
-4.0% 2GB.GR (2G Energy €22.65, -0.95) -- prelim. FY revenue
-3.6% KUD.SW (Kudelski CHF1.46, -0.05) -- FY earnings
-3.3% STJ.LN (St. James's Place £10.95, -0.37) -- FY earnings
-3.2% MTG.SW (Meier Tobler Group CHF28.85, -0.95) -- FY earnings
-3.2% BANB1.SW (Bachem Holding CHF56.15, -1.85) -- FY earnings
-2.7% FDR.SM (Fluidra €22.36, -0.62) -- FY earnings
-2.4% TW.LN (Taylor Wimpey £1.12, -0.03) -- FY earnings
-2.1% CVSG.LN (CVS Group £10.36, -0.22) -- H1 earnings
-2.0% G24.GR (Scout24 €92.45, -1.90) -- FY earnings
-1.9% MGN.NO (Magnora NOK22.95, -0.45) -- Q4 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Austria: Erste Group Bank (EBS.AV)
Benelux: Ackermans & van Haaren (ACKB.BB), Shurgard Self Storage (SHUR.BB), Bekaert (BEKB.BB), Proximus (PROX.BB), bpost (BPOST.BB), What's Cooking Group (WHATS.BB), Fugro (FUR.NA), Kendrion (KENDR.NA)
Denmark: Gubra (GUBRA.DC), Per Aarsleff Holding (PAAL.B.DC), Trifork Group (TRIFOR.DC), TCM Group (TCM.DC)
Finland: Afarak Group (AFAGR.FH)
France: Casino, Guichard-Perrachon (CO.FP), Forvia (FRVIA.FP), Thermador Groupe (THEP.FP)
Germany: Allianz (ALV.GR), BASF (BAS.GR), Alzchem Group (ACT.GR)
Greece: National Bank of Greece (ETE.GA), Alpha Services & Holdings (ALPHA.GA)
Italy: Sogefi (SGF.IM)
Norway: Leroy Seafood Group (LSG.NO), Austevoll Seafood (AUSS.NO), Archer (ARCH.NO), Zalaris (ZAL.NO)
Spain: Amadeus IT Group (AMS.SM), MERLIN Properties SOCIMI (MRL.SM),Vidrala (VID.SM), Distribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion (DIA.SM), Prosegur Compania de Seguridad (PSG.SM), Tubacex (TUB.SM)
Sweden: Probi (PROB.SS), Q-linea (QLINEA.SS)
Switzerland: Holcim (HOLN.SW), VZ Holding (VZN.SW), Bucher Industries (BUCN.SW), Clariant (CLN.SW), Sunrise Communications (SUNN.SW), Schweiter Technologies (SWTQ.SW)
UK/Ireland: International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.LN), Pearson (PSON.LN), Rightmove (RMV.LN), IMI (IMI.LN), Spectris (SXS.LN), Primary Health Properties (PHP.LN), Morgan Advanced Materials (MGAM.LN), Benchmark Holdings (BMK.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Denmark Jan Retail Sales +5.4% y/y vs consensus +1.9% and prior revised +1.7% from +1.5%
Norway Jan Unemployment Rate 3.7% vs consensus 4.2% and prior 4.2%
Sweden Jan Trade Balance SEK15.1B vs consensus SEK8.5B and prior SEK6.2B
France Jan PPI (2.1%) y/y vs consensus (2.4%) and prior (3.8%)
Spain Feb Preliminary CPI +3.0% y/y vs consensus +3.0% and prior +2.9%
Switzerland Q4 GDP +1.5% y/y vs consensus +1.6% and prior revised +1.9% from +2.0%
Italy Feb Business Confidence 87.0 vs consensus 87.0 and prior 86.8
Eurozone Jan M3 Money Supply +3.6% y/y vs consensus +3.8% and prior +3.5%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Apr 25): +$1.40 or +2.04% to $70.02
€-$ (0.0071) or (0.68%) to 1.0413
£-$ (0.0047) or (0.37%) to 1.2628
€-£ (0.0027) to 0.8244
S&P 500 +0.02%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +7.14%
DAX: +13.27%
CAC: +9.78%
MIB: +12.98%
Stoxx 600: +9.75%
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