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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 +0.51% to 8800.72, DAX (0.25%) to 22495.28, CAC40 (0.17%) to 8089.08, STOXX 600 (0.11%) to 556.48

Feb 28 ,2025

  • Synopsis:

    • European indices ended mixed-to-lower, with the FTSE outperforming the region. In geopolitics, the BBC reported that Downing Street were happy with the meeting between UK PM Starmer and US President Trump despite offering little concrete developments on Ukraine. Trump suggested he will approve Starmer's deal to hand the Chagos Islands over to Mauritius in a boost for Downing Street and also signaled the UK could be exempted from tariffs (Telegraph). Referring to an economic, rather than trade deal, Starmer said the UK and US could work on an agreement centered on the potential of artificial intelligence. UK officials said two sides aiming for a phased deal on economy and tech initially (FT). On Ukraine, Trump said it as too soon to be talking about peacekeeping troops and refused to guarantee US support (London Times). Trump suggested the minerals deal he is due to sign with Ukraine's Zelenskiy is a backstop because Americans will be over there working in the country. Trump said that Putin could be trusted not to violate his word.

    • In macronews, inflation continuing downward trajectory across Europe in February 2025, with significant slowdowns observed. In Germany, four largest states reported decreasing inflation rates, with North-Rhine Westphalia's rate declining to 1.9% from 2.0% (Reuters). Similar downward trends were observed in Hesse, Bavaria, and Saxony, while Brandenburg remained stable and Baden-Wuerttemberg showed a slight increase. Economists anticipate Germany's national harmonized inflation to ease to 2.7%, down from Jan's 2.8%, ahead of Monday's Eurozone inflation data release. France experienced dramatic inflation slowdown, with consumer prices rising just 0.8% in Feb, down from 1.7% in Jan, marking lowest rate since Feb-2021 (MorningStar). Sharp decline largely driven by 15% reduction in regulated electricity prices, pushing energy inflation down by 5.7% compared to last year. Cooling inflation figures come as ECB prepares for sixth interest rate cut since June, with Eurozone inflation expected to reach 2.3% in Feb. In contrast, Italy inflation rose to 1.7% in Feb versus 1.5% in Jan citing regulated energy products, although uptick was less than analysts expected (Ansa). Spanish headline inflation on Thursday rose to 3% driven by increases in electricity prices. However, core inflation continued downward trend, cooling from 2.4% to 2.1%. Data seen broadly supportive of ECB policy easing

    • In politics, Germany's CDU/CSU bloc and SPD will each send a nine-member team to start exploratory talks to form a grand coalition today (France24). CDU leader Merz has set deadline of mid-April for inter-party coalition, arguing it must be ready to act at a time of geopolitical turbulence and with economy stagnating. Securing an alliance will SPD would be the fastest way to form a government, as any other option would require at least one more party (Bloomberg). It will require concessions on both sides to reach an agreement. Merz is already talking about a debt-financed defense spending of as much as €200B. Has also promised to increase investment, but any big changes will require constitutional debt brake reform that could face a blocking minority in parliament. Sell-side economists have played down the likelihood of big changes because of the reliance on parties like the Greens and the Left to push through constitutional reform. However, Eurointelligence highlighted Merz might not have the funds needed to implement his entire economic program without wholesale change to fiscal approach.

    • On the reporting front, Allianz (ALV.GR) and BASF (BAS.GR) issued their Q4 updates, with Erste Group Bank (EBS.AV), Holcim (HOLN.SW) and Clariant (CLN.SW) among few other DACH names updating today; in the UK, International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG.LN), IMI plc, (IMI) Pearson (PSON.LN) and Weir Group (WEIR.LN) issued their numbers ,with the latter also announcing it will acquire Mining Software Holdings Pty Ltd for £657M. Elsewhere, Valeo SE (FR.FP), Ferrovial (FER.SM), Amadeus IT Group (AMS.SM) bpost (BPOST.BB), Proximus (PROX.BB) and Lerøy Seafood Group (LSG.NO) also reported their most recent numbers. On the banking front, Banco BPM (BAMI.IM) shareholder meeting approved the €7.00/share increased offer for Anima Holding SpA (ANIM.IM), whilst former HSBC CEO Quinn si reportedly close to be appointed Julius Baer (BEAR.SW) Chairman

    • Looking ahead to next week's calendars (please see our StreetAccount Summary - Europe Week Ahead: Mar 03-07 attached below), ECB interest rate decision, Feb manufacturing/services PMIs and Feb preliminary CPIs from across the region will be the main macro-releases. Earnings will include Bayer (BAYN.GR), Continental (CON.GR), Evonik Industries (EVK.GR), adidas (ADS.GR), Deutsche Lufthansa (LGA.GR), Deutsche Post (DHL.GR), Merck KGaA (MRK.GR), Kuhne + Nagel International (KNIN.SW), Universal Music Group (UMG.NA), Solvay (SOLB.BB), Atos (ATO.FP), Thales (HO.FP), Air France-KLM (AF.FP), Bouygues (EN.FP), JCDecaux (DEC.FP) as well as Lottomatica Group (LTMC.IM), Salvatore Ferragamo (SFER,IM), Sandoz Group (SDZ.SW) and Vivendi (VIV.FP) among few others

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers: Utilities +0.66%, Chemicals +0.47%, Construct & Mtls +0.46%, Food & Beverage +0.38%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.34%, Autos & Parts +0.33%, Telecom +0.27%, Travel & Leisure +0.26%, Financial Svcs +0.09%, Ind Goods & Svcs (0.02%), Banks (0.03%), Health Care (0.10%)

      • Underperformers: Technology (1.71%), Media (0.65%), Basic Resources (0.62%), Oil & Gas (0.52%), Insurance (0.40%), Retail (0.28%), Real Estate (0.11%)

    • Macro:

      • European Union poised to ask banks about delaying capital rules -- (Bloomberg)

      • Zelenskyy heads for Trump White House meeting as Russia names new US ambassador (Guardian)

      • Germany's Merz in 'difficult' talks over plans to boost defence spending (FT)

      • Scholz to attend Ukraine meeting hosted by British prime minister (Reuters)

      • Macron calls on Europe to reject 'happy vassal dependence' on US (MSN)

      • France set to lift ban on police stopping migrant boats at sea (Telegraph)

      • Key takeaways from Starmer's talks with Trump (BBC)

      • German Inflation Fails to Slow After France and Italy Undershoot (BBG)

      • PM Meloni presents €3B package for energy bills (Ansa)

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +8.8% NEXI.IM (Nexi SpA €5.03, +0.41) -- Q4 earnings

        • +5.9% JUVE.IM (Juventus Football Club €2.99, +0.17) -- earnings

        • +5.8% ALPHA.GA (Alpha Services & Holdings €1.95, +0.11) -- Q4 eanrings; agrees to acquire Cypriot Astrobank for no less than €205M

        • +5.8% WEIR.LN (Weir Group £24.18, +1.32) -- FY earnings; to acquire Mining Software Holdings Pty Ltd for £657M

        • +5.7% IMI.LN (IMI £20.00, +1.08) -- FY earnings

        • +5.5% KSL.FH (Keskisuomalainen €7.30, +0.38) -- FY earnings

        • +4.7% ZAL.NO (Zalaris NOK84.40, +3.80) -- Q4 earnings

        • +4.4% AMS.SM (Amadeus IT Group €72.56, +3.04) -- Q4 earnings

        • +3.9% IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group £3.52, +0.13) -- Q4 earnings

        • +3.5% RMV.LN (Rightmove £6.66, +0.23) -- FY earnings

        • +3.3% LSG.NO (Lerøy Seafood Group NOK53.10, +1.70) -- Q4 earnings

        • +3.2% LHN.SW (Holcim CHF98.76, +3.10) -- Q4 earnings; files Form 10 with SEC for Amrize spinoff, which is planned to be completed by end of H1

        • +2.8% VID.SM (Vidrala €99.50, +2.70) -- FY earnings

        • +2.6% PROX.BB (Proximus €6.04, +0.15) -- Q4 earnings

        • +2.4% SMCP.FP (SMCP €3.60, +0.09) -- FY earnings

        • +2.1% MEL.SM (Melia Hotels International €7.40, +0.15) -- FY earnings

        • +2.0% PSON.LN (Pearson £13.62, +0.26) -- FY earnings

        • +2.0% SGO.FP (Compagnie de Saint-Gobain €96.90, +1.94) -- FY earnings

        • +1.7% BUCN.SW (Bucher Industries CHF386.00, +6.50) -- FY earnings

        • +1.7% COL.SM (Inmobiliaria Colonial SOCIMI €5.75, +0.09) -- FY earnings

        • +1.7% VIS.SM (Viscofan €60.90, +1.00) -- FY earnings

        • +1.3% BAS.GR (BASF SE €49.41, +0.61) -- Q4 earnings

        • +1.1% AUSS.NO (Austevoll Seafood NOK106.90, +1.20) -- Q4 earnings

        • +0.6% ANIM.IM (Anima Holding SpA €6.93, +0.04) -- BAMI shareholders meeting approves €7.00/share increased offer for Anima

        • +0.5% GCO.SM (Grupo Catalana Occidente €39.95, +0.20) -- FY eanrings

        • +0.5% BAER.SW (Julius Baer Group CHF60.58, +0.32) -- set to appoint former HSBC CEO Noel Quinn as next chairman - Bloomberg

        • +0.3% FUR.NA (Fugro €14.87, +0.05) -- FY earnings

      • Notable Decliners

        • -24.5% BPOST.BB (bpost €1.57, -0.51) -- FY earnings

        • -22.3% FRVIA.FP (Forvia €8.48, -2.43) -- FY earnings

        • -19.9% NXI.FP (Nexity €10.64, -2.65) -- FY earnings

        • -16.2% MGAM.LN (Morgan Advanced Materials £2.15, -0.42) -- FY earnings

        • -16.0% CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon €0.66, -0.13) -- FY earnings

        • -15.1% SGG.SS (Sensys Gatso Group SEK49.95, -8.85) -- Q4 earnings; CEO to step down

        • -13.7% PAAL.B.DC (Per Aarsleff Holding DKK459.00, -73.00) -- Q1 earnings

        • -11.9% FR.FP (Valeo SE €9.96, -1.34) -- FY eanrings

        • -11.1% MEGP.LN (ME Group International £1.96, -0.24) -- FPCI Montefiore Investment IV sells 26.5M ordinary shares in company at 200p/sh

        • -8.7% OBD.LN (Oxford BioDynamics £0.01, -0.00) -- FY trading update

        • -7.8% BMK.LN (Benchmark Holdings £0.25, -0.02) -- Q1 earnings

        • -7.8% TEP.FP (Teleperformance €92.38, -7.80) -- FY eanrings

        • -7.4% EBS.AV (Erste Group Bank €64.14, -5.16) -- Q4 earnings

        • -5.8% PUIG.SM (Puig Brands €17.95, -1.10) -- FY earnings

        • -4.6% YCA.LN (Yellow Cake £4.42, -0.21) -- issues statement regarding shareholder consultation on last AGM resolutions

        • -4.5% FAE.SM (FAES Farma €3.41, -0.16) -- FY earnings

        • -4.5% GEST.SM (Gestamp Automoción €2.67, -0.13) -- FY earnings; Kepler cheuvreux downgrade

        • -4.3% CLN.SW (Clariant CHF10.12, -0.45) -- Q4 earnings

        • -3.1% QLINEA.SS (Q-linea SEK0.06, -0.00) -- FY eanrings

        • -2.6% HEAD.LN (Headlam Group £1.13, -0.03) -- announces new Chairman

        • -2.6% ENC.SM (ENCE Energia y Celulosa €3.34, -0.09) -- FY earnings

        • -2.3% PANR.LN (Pantheon Resources £0.59, -0.01) -- Sun Hung Kai & Co. exercises right to increase convertible bond to $35M

        • -1.7% MRL.SM (MERLIN Properties SOCIMI €10.42, -0.18) -- FY eanrings

        • -1.6% SHUR.BB (Shurgard Self Storage €34.70, -0.55) -- FY earnings

        • -1.5% FER.SM (Ferrovial €42.66, -0.64) -- FY earnings

        • -1.1% ALV.GR (Allianz €329.60, -3.60) -- Q4 earnings

        • -1.0% PHM.SM (Pharma Mar €95.60, -0.95) -- FY earnings

        • -0.6% TUB.SM (Tubacex €3.88, -0.02) -- Q4 earnings

    • EU companies reporting on Monday:

      • DACHs: Aryzta (ARYN.SW), Gurit Holding (GURN.SW), HIAG Immobilien Holding (HIAG.SW), Flughafen Wien (FLU.AV)

      • France: Exosens (EXENS.FP), Euroapi (EAPI.FP)

      • Nordics: Integrum (INTEG.B.SS)

      • Southern Europe: Lottomatica Group (LTMC.IM)

      • UK: Bunzl (BNZL.LN), Quartix Technologies (QTX.LN), Senior (SNR.LN), Burford Capital (BUR.LN)

      • Trading Update: C&C Group (CCR.LN)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Germany Jan Retail Sales +2.9% y/y vs consensus +1.5% and prior revised +2.0% from +1.8%

      • France

        • Q4 GDP +0.6% y/y vs preliminary +0.7%

        • Feb Preliminary CPI +0.8% y/y vs consensus +1.0% and prior +1.7%

        • Jan Consumer Spending (0.5%) m/m vs consensus (0.6%) and prior +0.7%

      • Italy

        • Feb Preliminary CPI +1.7% y/y vs consensus +1.7% and prior +1.5%; +0.2% m/m vs consensus +0.2% and prior +0.6%

      • UK Feb Nationwide House Price Index +3.9% y/y vs consensus +3.4% and prior +4.1%

      • Finland Q4 GDP +1.2% y/y vs preliminary +0.7%

      • Denmark Jan Unemployment Rate 2.5% vs consensus 2.6% and prior 2.6%

      • Norway Jan Retail Sales +1.1% m/m vs consensus (0.2%) and prior (0.1%)

      • Sweden

        • Q4 GDP +2.4% y/y vs preliminary +1.1%

        • Jan Retail Sales +3.2% y/y vs consensus +5.1% and prior revised +4.3% from +5.6%

      • Switzerland

        • Feb KOF Leading Indicators 101.7 vs consensus 102.0 and prior revised 103.0 from 101.6

        • Jan Retail Sales +1.3% y/y vs consensus +1.6% and prior revised +2.1% from +2.6%

      • Greece

        • Dec Retail Sales (5.4%) y/y vs consensus +0.2% and prior +1.1%

        • Jan PPI +0.3% y/y vs consensus (0.3%) and prior (0.8%)

      • Belgium Q4 GDP +1.1% y/y vs preliminary +1.1%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Apr 25): ($0.72) or (1.02%) to $69.63

      • €-$ +0.0001 or +0.01% to 1.0401

      • £-$ (0.0015) or (0.12%) to 1.2586

      • €-£ +0.0012 to 0.8266

      • S&P 500 +0.33%

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +7.68%

        • DAX: +12.99%

        • CAC: +9.60%

        • MIB: +12.96%

        • Stoxx 600: +9.63%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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