Mar 06 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open higher whilst Asian equities trading mostly higher Thursday. Hang Seng building on its week's gains as its technology and internet stocks surged again, and mainland China markets also trading higher.
Market bounce attempt comes after White House gave one month tariff exemption for autos, while Commerce Secretary Lutnick also said specific products compliant with USMCA could receive relief. Agriculture Secretary Rollins later noted administration considering tariff exemptions and carveouts for farm products. Still a lot of uncertainty with Trump not backing down on his tariff strategy after he dismissed Canadian efforts on fentanyl and told Americans to brace for short-term economic pain in his Congress speech.
German bond sell-off reverberating globally with Treasuries, JGBs and Australian yields seeing sharp increases. Bund yields registered biggest daily rise since early 1990s after German lawmakers agreed to release fiscal handbrake in bid to ramp up defense spending. Bond selloff contrasts with Treasury-led fall in yields over recent weeks as pickup in concerns about a tariff-related US growth slowdown swung markets back to pricing in three Fed rate cuts in 2025 vs 1-2 previously.
On today's agenda, Special European Council meeting, EU's von der Leyen among the participants, and EU's Kos and Jørgensen among the panellists at European Investment Bank Group Forum (Wed-Fri). Also, Di Energy-intensive industry 2025, includes speech by Kristian Gustavsson, Senior Advisor Regulatory Affairs at Vattenfall, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung hosts agricultural policy conf on the topic "Europe's agricultural policy at the crossroads - what's next for MV?" (through Fri) and FT hosts CFO Summit, speakers include Ireland's minister of finance Donohoe at 9:40GMT. Germany Feb new car registrations due to be released.
In central banks, ECB interest rate decision at 14:15CET, with press conf at 14:45. The central bank is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by (25bps) to 2.50%, with the latest ECB staff projections also due to be release at 15:45. Also, Turkey's central bank interest rate decision at 12:00CET. Expectations appear to be for a cut of (2.50%) to the benchmark interest rate to 42.50%. BOE's John speech at 8:30GMT at Intergraf conf. ECB's Lagarde video message at 16:35CET at Women's Forum event organised by Austria's central bank.
Macro data due include Switzerland Feb unemployment rate, Germany Feb construction PMI, Sweden Feb preliminary CPI, Denmark Jan manufacturing production, Eurozone Jan retail sales, Feb construction PMI.
Busy morning for earnings with DACHs names kicking off the session with Galderma Group (GALD.SW), Merck KGaA (MRK.GR), Duerr (DUE.GR), ProSiebenSat.1 Media (PSM.GR) and Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA.GR) reporting end of year numbers, whilst yesterday after the close Logitech International (LOGN.SW) confirmed revenue guidance at its investors day. In France, Elis (ELIS.FP), Air France-KLM (AF.FP), JCDecaux (DEC.FP), Bouygues (BN.FP) and Getlink (GET.FP) reported FY/Q4 earnings.
Elsewhere, Solvay (SOLB.BB) issued Q4 earnings with results ahead of consensus and a proposed gross dividend of €2.43 per share. Also due to report today includes, Vivendi (VIV.FP), Deutsche Post (DHL.GR), Salvatore Ferragamo (SFER,IM), Reckitt Benckiser Group (RKT.LN), Entain (ENT.LN), Admiral Group (ADM.LN) and Schroders (SDR.LN).
Politics/Macro/World News
Germany's spending bazooka propels euro and borrowing costs higher - Politico
European investors dump US equity ETFs in February - FT
ECB Set to Cut Again But Tensions Cloud Path Beyond - Bloomberg
Trump issues 'last warning' to Hamas as US confirms direct hostage talks - BBC
France to Open Talks to Extend Nuclear Shield for Europe - Bloomberg
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
LOGN.SW (Logitech International) -- confirms FY revenue guidance $4.45-4.57B vs FactSet $4.60B [15 est, $4.54-4.94B] at investor day
GALD.SW (Galderma Group) -- reports FY core net income $496M vs FactSet $391.2M; guides FY25
COPN.SW (Cosmo Pharmaceuticals) -- reports FY operating profit €148.9M vs year-ago (€1.9M)
COTN.SW (COMET Holding) -- reports FY net income CHF35.1M vs FactSet CHF33.0M [9 est, CHF26.9-36.7M]
KARN.SW (Kardex Holding) -- reports FY net income attributable €80.7M vs FactSet €75.6M [4 est, €73.9-76.4M]
GFT.GR (GFT Technologies) -- Follow-up: GFT Technologies reports FY24 EPS €1.77 vs FactSet €1.83 [5 est, €1.73-1.98]
MRK.GR (Merck KGaA) -- reports FY EPS pre €8.63 vs FactSet €8.72 [16 est, €8.35-9.27]; guides 2025 Net sales €21.5-22.9B vs FactSet €22.18B
ZAL.GR (Zalando) -- confirms prelim FY earnings as per 15-Jan update; issues FY25 outlook
HELN.SW (Helvetia Holding) -- reports FY Underlying EPS CHF9.50 vs FactSet CHF9.23 [8 est, CHF7.56-10.46]
GEBN.SW (Geberit) -- reports FY EPS CHF18.06 vs FactSet CHF18.10 [20 est, CHF17.06-19.04]
WAF.GR (Siltronic) -- confirms prelim. FY results; reports Q4 EPS (€0.08) vs FactSet €0.19 [4 est, €0.05-0.37]
LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa) -- reports Q4 EPS €0.46 vs FactSet €0.20 [5 est, €0.13-0.34]; expects FY25 adjusted EBIT to be significantly higher than previous financial year
DUE.GR (Duerr) -- reports preliminary FY net income €102.1M vs FactSet €123.5M [12 est, €110-153.5M]
CICN.SW (Cicor Technologies) reports FY net income CHF27.3M vs FactSet CHF22.4M [4 est, CHF21.7-23.0M]
SAX.GR (Stroeer SE & Co. KGaA) -- reports FY EBIT €320M vs FactSet €299.8M [9 est, €276.2-334.9M]
ZAG.AV (Zumtobel Group) -- reports 9M net income €13.0M vs year-ago €21.4M
PSM.GR (ProSiebenSat.1 Media) -- reports FY adjusted net income €229M vs FactSet €204.5M
ANDR.AV (Andritz) -- reports Q4 net income (incl. non-controlling interests) €154.3M vs consensus €149.6M
France
SPIE.FP (SPIE) -- reports FY adjusted net income €419.8M vs FactSet €424.2M, raises dividend +20.5% y/y
MTU.FP (Manitou BF) -- reports FY net income €121.9M vs FactSet €120.5M [6 est, €107.7-126.2M]
SCHP.FP (Seche Environnement) -- reports FY net income €35.5M vs FactSet €42.2M [4 est, €38.1-48.3M]
ELIS.FP (Elis) -- reports FY net income €337.8M vs FactSet €453.6M [11 est, €441-471.2M]; starts €150M share buyback program
FDJ.FP (La Francaise des Jeux) -- reports final FY earnings in line with prelim. release: adj. net income €490M vs FactSet €462.0M
DEC.FP (JCDecaux) -- reports FY net income €258.9M vs FactSet €250.7M; expects around +5% organic revenue growth in Q1
RF.FP (Eurazeo) -- reports FY net income (€420M) ex-items vs year-ago (€89M); accelrates buyback and hikes divi by 10%
GET.FP (Getlink) -- reports FY net income €317M vs FactSet €258.2M [15 est, €196-335.0M]
MAU.FP (Maurel et Prom) -- reports FY net income €233M vs FactSet €186.7M [4 est, €166.2-203.3M]; hikes divi by 10%
EN.FP (Bouygues) -- reports FY net income €1.03B vs FactSet €1.08B [8 est, €944.6-1.30B]
AF.FP (Air France-KLM) -- reports Q4 net income (€21M) vs FactSet (€74.4M) [4 est, (€195.9)-71.1M]; guides FY25
Benelux
SOLB.BB (Solvay) -- reports Q4 net income €101M vs consensus €79M
HAVAS.NA (Havas NV) -- reports FY net income €189M vs FactSet €182.0M [4 est, €169.9-195.2M]
Nordics
NTG.DC (NTG Nordic Transport Group) -- reports Q4 EBIT DKK131M ex-items vs FactSet DKK128.7M [3 est, DKK116-135M]
SYSR.SS (Systemair) -- reports Q3 EPS SEK0.62 vs FactSet SEK0.73 [4 est, SEK0.62-0.80]
KCC.NO (Klaveness Combination Carriers) -- guides / actual spot Q1 TCE earnings between $21.0-22.5K/day; Upside potential after a seasonally weak Q1 - slides
BNOR.NO (BlueNord) -- reports Feb preliminary production 35.5 mboepd net
MPCC.NO (MPC Container Ships) -- announces robust backlog provides earnings visibility - slides
Southern Europe
GEO.IM (Geox) -- reports FY adjusted net income (€17.3M) vs FactSet (€15.9M) (post EU close 5-Mar)
Also due to report today includes:
Earnings:
Benelux: Jensen-Group (JEN.BB), Viohalco (VIO.BB), Universal Music Group (UMG.NA), FL Entertainment (BNJ.NA)
France: Vivendi (VIV.FP), Savencia (SAVE.FP), Societe de la Tour Eiffel (EIFF.FP), Prodware (ALPRO.FP), GFT Technologies (GFT.FP)
Germany: Deutsche Post (DHL.GR), CompuGroup Medical SE & Co. (COP.GR),
Nordics: Cambi (CAMBI.NO), Schouw & Co (SCHO.DC), TORM (TRMD.A.DC), Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STG.DC), Lamor Corporation (LAMOR.FH),
Russia: Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS (MOEX.RU)
Southern Europe: Salvatore Ferragamo (SFER,IM), Amplifon (AMP.IM), Azimut Holding (AZM.IM), Italmobiliare (ITM.IM), IGD SIIQ (IGD.IM), Tinexta (TNXT.IM), Ascopiave (ASC.IM)
Switzerland: Molecular Partners (MOLN.SW),
UK/Ireland: Reckitt Benckiser Group (RKT.LN), Entain (ENT.LN), Admiral Group (ADM.LN), Schroders (SDR.LN), Melrose Industries (MRO.LN), Informa (INF.LN), Grafton Group (GFTU.LN), ITV (ITV.LN), Elementis (ELM.LN), Harbour Energy (HBR.LN), Vistry Group (VTY.LN), Rentokil Initial (RTO.LN), Coats Group (COA.LN), Hunting (HTG.LN), PageGroup (PAGE.LN), Robert Walters (RWA.LN), Funding Circle Holdings (FCH.LN), Hansard Global (HSD.LN), Dalata Hotel Group (DHG.ID)
Trading Update: R&S Group Holding (RSGN.SW)
Traffic: Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS.NO), Finnair (FIA1S.FH)
CMD/events: ROCKWOOL (ROCK.B.DC) ESG
M&A
RIO.AU (Rio Tinto) -- completes Arcadium Lithium acquisition; deal announced 9-Oct-24
WPP.LN (WPP Group) -- announces strategic partnership and investment in Stability AI
PSM.GR (ProSiebenSat.1 Media) -- discloses discussions with General Atlantic regarding potential acquisition of minority shareholdings in NuCom Group and ParshipMeet Group
TXT.IM (TXT e-Solutions) -- to acquire IT Values for initial €15.0M in cash and shares (post EU close 5-Mar)
APPH.GR (APONTIS PHARMA) -- Zentiva AG submits formal request to carry out a merger squeeze-out of the minority shareholders of APONTIS PHARMA AG
(GSA removes list of "non-core" properties set to be divested from its website -- Bloomberg
Healthcare
VITR.SS (Vitrolife) -- comments on class action lawsuit filings in a court in Florida
Other
VOW3.GR (Volkswagen) -- previews entry-level electric model EVERY1
IVG.IM (Iveco Group) -- releases sustainability report
CCEP.NA (Coca-Cola Europacific Partners) -- confirms admission to FTSE 100 Index
MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology) -- extends bridge facility to 7-Mar
BAR.BB (Barco) -- announces launch of share buyback program
Universal Music Group in talks with Vornado Realty Trust for NYC office space - Bloomberg
Key rating changes
Upgrades
ABDN.LN (abrdn Plc) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
HAVAS.NA (Havas NV) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
PST.IM (Poste Italiane) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
SSAB.B.SS (SSAB) - to hold from sell at ABG Sundal Collier
Downgrades
VZN.SW (VZ Holding) -- to hold from buy at Vontobel (earlier, timing uncertain)
EXENS.FP (Exosens) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
HH.DC (H+H International) --to hold from buy at Nordea
NWG.LN (NatWest Group) -- to add from buy at Peel Hunt
ALLEI.SS (Alleima) -- to hold from buy at ABG Sundal Collier
RYA.ID (Ryanair Holdings) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
Initiations
DNB.NO (DNB Bank) -- buy at HSBC
Data
Nikkei +0.77% to 37704.93
Hang Seng +2.92% to 24283.53
Shanghai Composite +1.15% to 3380.46
S&P futures (1.8) vs prior close of 5851.3
€-$ +0.0012 or +0.11% to 1.0803
$-¥ (0.06) or (0.04%) to 148.83
€-¥ +0.14 or +0.09% to 160.78
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