Mar 11 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly higher, whilst Asia equities lower across the board Tuesday although most benchmarks now off their lows. Steepest losses in developed Asia with Australia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all still down by more than 1%.
US equities were sharply lower in Monday trading (Dow (2.08%), S&P 500 (2.70%), Nasdaq (4.00%), Russell 2000 (2.72%)) as stocks finished just a bit off worst levels. S&P 500 and Nasdaq both posted worst YTD performance (Nasdaq worst since Sep-22).
Markets remain gripped by economic concerns as Trump policy uncertainty drives pickup in recession talk. Latest selling follows Trump's weekend remarks demurring on prospect of recession and signaling no letup in his tariff strategy. Growth fears fanned by deterioration in consumer sentiment readings as economic data continues to surprise to the downside. That is also contributing to Treasury curve bull steepening as markets price in more Fed rate cuts in a slowing growth environment.
On today's agenda, a meeting of the military chiefs of countries willing to send troops to Ukraine to ensure peace will take place in Paris. Elsewhere, EU's von der Leyen participates in the EP plenary joint debate on European Council meetings and European Security. EU's Kallas in New York and participates in the United Nations Security Council briefing session on European Union-United Nations cooperation. Greenland parliamentary election; result expected on Wed. In Norway, PM Støre and other ministers will start the budget work for 2026 with a budget conf (through Wed). In UK, parliamentary committee topics include reforming the water sector (10:00GMT, execs from Northumbrian Water (1.HK)), new members of Prudential Regulation Committee to appear in front of MPs (10:00), the energy grid and grid connections (10:30) and Ukraine 100 year partnership agreement (17:00). Paris Defense and Strategy Forum (through Thu).
In central banks, Riksbank's Thedéen, others, at Riksdag Committee on Finance at 9:00CET, Bank of Finland publishes its latest economic forecast, Tehn press conf., BOE's Foulger panellist at 14:10GMT at the Alternative Investment Management Association Global Policy and Regulatory Forum and BOE's Mills panellist at 16:25GMT at the International Futures Industry BOCA50 Conf. Also, ECOFIN meeting with ECB's de Guindos among the participants. Event at 13:00CET hosted by OMFIF title The European and international monetary and financial landscape, speakers include Bundesbank's Köhler-Geib.
European macro data releases out today include Netherlands Feb final CPI, Denmark Jan trade balance, UK Feb retail sales monitor - BRC
In earnings news, DACHs names kicked off the session with VW (VOW.GR), Redcare Pharmacy (RDC.GR), Henkel (HEN.GR), Partners Group Holding (PGHN.SW) and GEA Group (G1A.GR) reporting FY earnings, whilst yesterday after the close HelloFresh (HFG.GR) reported preliminary FY earnings with an EBITDA at the top end of guidance and issued its outlook for 2025. In France, Maisons du Monde (MDM.FP) released end of year numbers and indicated that it expects to gradually return to growth in 2025.
In Belgium, D'Ieteren Group reported Q4 earnings and proposed a dividend of €1.60 per share for FY24 vs year-ago €3.75. Also due to report earnings today includes, Volkswagen (VOW3.GR), Spirax Group (SPX.LN), Persimmon (PSN.LN) and Domino's Pizza (DOM.LN).
Politics/Macro/World News
Ukrainian concessions 'the only way' to end Russia's war, Rubio says - Politico
UK Shoppers Cut Back Spending in Warning Sign for Reeves - Bloomberg
Italy's Bond Angst Shapes Meloni Strategy From Defense to Banks - Bloomberg
Portugal's government on brink of collapse - FT
Greens make their own proposal for defense spending - Handelsblatt
Top company news
Earnings/updates
Germany/Switzerland
VOW.GR (Volkswagen) -- reports Q4 net income €3.48B vs FactSet €3.46B [4 est, €2.85-3.95B], cuts dividend (30%) y/y, guides 2025
HEN.GR (Henkel) -- reports FY adj EPS €5.36 vs consensus €5.35; hikes divi by ~10% and guides FY25
HFG.GR (HelloFresh) -- reports preliminary FY adjusted EBITDA €399.0M vs guidance between €360M and €400M vs FactSet €363.0M [15 est, €239-393.6M]
PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding) -- reports FY net income CHF1.13B vs consensus CHF1.08B
RDC.GR (Redcare Pharmacy) -- reports FY net income (€46.4M) vs FactSet (€37.7M) [12 est, (€47.4)-(25M)]
VIJ.GR (Viemed Healthcare) -- reports Q4 EPS $0.11 vs year-ago $0.09
PPGN.SW (PolyPeptide Group) -- reports FY EPS (€0.59) vs FactSet (€0.36) [5 est, (€0.50)-(0.28)]; issues FY25 and mid-term outlook
BKW.SW (BKW AG) -- reports FY operating net profit CHF550.4M vs FactSet CHF555.6M [4 est, CHF498.7-634.9M]
GALE.SW (Galenica) -- reports FY net income CHF183.2M vs FactSet CHF170.9M [6 est, CHF169-172.6M]
SENS.SW (Sensirion Holding) -- reports FY net income CHF4.5M ex-items vs FactSet (CHF31.1M) [5 est, (CHF36.3)-(22.8M)]
HUBN.SW (HUBER+SUHNER) -- reports FY net income CHF72.3M vs FactSet CHF70.3M [5 est, CHF66.9-73.5M]
KURN.SW (Kuros Biosciences) -- reports FY EPS (CHF0.12) vs FactSet (CHF0.01) [1 est]
KOMN.SW (Komax Holding) -- reports FY EPS (CHF0.63) vs FactSet (CHF0.11) [5 est, (CHF0.80)-0.64]
G1A.GR (GEA Group) -- reports FY EPS €2.62 vs consensus €2.57
Southern Europe
SL.IM (Sanlorenzo) -- reports final FY numbers: net income €103.1M, +11% vs year-ago €92.8M and guidance range of €99-101M
Benelux
DIE.BB (D'Ieteren Group) -- reports Q4 adjusted net income €773.5M, +5% vs year-ago €733.3M; provides FY25 outlook
France
MDM.FP (Maisons du Monde) -- reports FY net income (€115.3M) vs FactSet (€13.5M) [3 est, (€23.7)-(4.2M)]; no divi and visible effects of Inspire Everyday expected in 2025, with a gradual return to growth
Nordics
BNOR.NO (BlueNord) -- announces update on Tyra Redevelopment Project and revision of Tyra production guidance for Q1 2025
Also due to report today includes
Earnings:
DACHs: Volkswagen (VOW3.GR),
Nordics: LEGO (+LEGO.DC)
Southern Europe: ERG (ERG.IM), Safilo Group (SFL.IM), Esprinet (PRT.IM)
UK: Spirax Group (SPX.LN), Persimmon (PSN.LN), Domino's Pizza (DOM.LN), Rotork (ROR.LN), Kier Group (KIE.LN), Costain (COST.LN), Synthomer (SYNT.LN), Somero Enterprises (SOM.LN), STV Group (STVG.LN), Headlam (HEAD.LN)
CMD/events: Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG.GR)
M&A
509930.IN (Supreme Industries) -- to acquire Wavin Industries' Indian piping business for $30.0M cash plus net working capital
Brookfield considering selling Healthscope - The Australian
TenneT launches stake sale for German unit - Bloomberg
Healthcare
AMGN (Amgen) -- settles patent infringement litigation with Fresenius Kabi for biosimilars of Prolia and Xgeva
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- planning to develop radiopharmaceutical segment into business worth at least $10B over next decade - Nikkei
FME.GR (Fresenius Medical Care) -- SEC filing: SCHEDULE 13D/A (Filed by Fresenius SE & Co. KGaA)
VIJ.GR (Viemed Healthcare) -- SEC filing: 10-K
Other
HEN3.GR (Henkel) -- announce a new up to €1B share buyback program
GLE.FP (Societe Generale) -- CEO says nothing is sacred as it seeks to reduce cost base by targeting IT costs and external consultants - FT
G.IM (Assicurazioni Generali) -- Generali investor Caltagirone aims to name up to six directors but will stop short of proposing new CEO candidate - Reuters
SESG.FP (SES) -- and Lynk Global announce strategic partnership for direct-to-Device (D2D) services
MBTN.SW (Meyer Burger Technology) -- extends and upsizes bridge facility to $72.8M
Mitsubishi HC Capital to order 50 A320neo family aircraft from Airbus's Airbus SAS
US Supreme Court will not block states' climate lawsuits against oil majors and other ESG intraday updates (10-Mar)
Key rating changes
Upgrades
ABB.SS (ABB Limited) -- to buy from hold at ABG Sundal Collier
BREE.LN (Breedon Group) -- to buy from add at Peel Hunt
MTRO.LN (Metro Bank Holdings) -- to buy from hold at Peel Hunt
UBXN.SW (u-blox Holding) -- to buy from hold at Stifel
BRBY.LN (Burberry Group) -- to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
AFX.GR (Carl Zeiss Meditec) -- to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs
SGRO.LN (Segro) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
AIA.GA (Athens International Airport) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
LSEG.LN (London Stock Exchange Group) -- to outperform from neutral at Oddo
Downgrades
8TRA.GR (TRATON) -- to reduce from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
NORVA.SS (Norva24 Group AB) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
LISP.SW (Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli) -- to hold from buy at Stifel
LLOY.LN (Lloyds Banking Group) -- to market perform from outperform at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
Others:
MOWI.NO (Mowi) -- reinitiated buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
Data
Nikkei (0.64%) to 36793.11
Hang Seng (0.60%) to 23641.41
Shanghai Composite +0.02% to 3366.87
S&P futures +11.3 vs prior close of 5620.8
€-$ +0.0030 or +0.28% to 1.0865
$-¥ +0.01 or +0.01% to 147.28
€-¥ +0.46 or +0.29% to 160.00
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