Mar 12 ,2025
Synopsis:
European indices ended in positive territory, except for Denmark, Norway and Spain. Earlier this morning, the EU swiftly retaliated against President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel/aluminum with two-stage countermeasure package targeting €26B in US exports - a response significantly larger than during his first term. From 1-Apr, EU will reimpose tariffs on €8B of iconic American products including Harley-Davidson motorcycles, bourbon, and jeans. By mid-Apr, pending member state approval, Brussels will implement additional countermeasures on €18B of US goods. EU Commission President von der Leyen noted tariffs are taxes, bad for business, and even worse for consumers. European steel stocks have been volatile on tariff news throughout 2025. MT.NA, which derives ~15% of sales from US, most impacted when tariffs first announced. Morgan Stanley had already downgraded OUT1V.FH to "underweight" in February, citing valuation and lagging earnings, warning of downside to 2025 consensus estimates across the board. Analysts distinguish between companies with US production facilities like ACX.SM (which Morgan Stanley rates "overweight") versus those dependent on imports, seen more at risk. Escalating trade tensions threaten pivotal $1.7T transatlantic relationship, with EU diplomats suggesting US becoming unreliable partner.
Macro front was light, with only Spain Jan retail sales notable release. ECB President Lagarde warned the central bank is likely to miss 2% inflation target more frequently in the future, acknowledging it would be "impossible" to guarantee inflation always hits this mark amid "exceptionally high" uncertainty. Lagarde highlighted multiple factors complicating monetary policy, including potential trade wars and increased defense spending, which create "new, two-sided shocks" that could either dampen or accelerate inflation. The Eurozone may be particularly vulnerable given dependence on global trade and energy imports. A 40bp rise in the 1y9y OIS rate to 3.0% reflects a higher natural rate, supporting ECB hawks favoring an April pause, with markets pricing this as more likely. Followed German and European fiscal plans focused on defense and infrastructure spending. Meanwhile, ECB dove Centeno argued that economic activity remains constrained by high borrowing costs, advocating for continued rate cuts to prevent inflation from settling below target (link). Centeno said economy must be compatible with 2% inflation, suggesting rates would no longer restrict activity below 2%. Despite cutting rates six times since June to 2.5%, the ECB has become increasingly cautious about future moves
On the corporate front, DACHs region names kicked off the session with Porsche (P911.GR) FY EPS missing but confirming FY25 outlook. Puma (PUM.GR) ended lower after disappointing Q1/ FY25 guidance, whilst Rheinmetall (RHM.GR) FY operating result beats, revenue on the soft side. Also, Avolta (AVOL.SW) FY core net income beat while Tecan Group (TECN.SW) adj net income down y/y. In the UK, Legal & General (LGEN.LN) FY EPS softer, Balfour Beatty (BBY.LN) FY results beat across metrics. Out of Southern Europe, Inditex (ITX.SM) under pressure (7%) on back of its FY results; Leonardo (LDO.IM) issued its FY shortly before the close yesterday and provided Industrial Plan update for the period 2025-29. In M&A news, Ambea AB (AMBEA.SS) agrees to acquire Validia and enter the Finnish care market for purchase price of SEK1.38B. On the pharma-front, Roche (ROG.SW) entered into exclusive collaboration & licensing agreement with Zealand Pharma (ZEAL.DC) to co-develop and co-commercialise petrelintide. In the afternoon, Continental (CON.GR) approved the already communicated spin-off of automotive, also taking decisions on capital resources and future dividend policy
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendars, Hannover Re (HNR1.GR), Hugo Boss (BOSS.GR), K+S (SDF.GR), GRENKE (GLJ.GR), Villeroy & Boch (VIB3.GR), Rubis (RUI.FP), Voltalia (VLTSA.FP), Enel (ENEL.IM), Generali (G.IM), Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IM), Reply (REY.IM), Webuild (WBD.IM), Deliveroo (ROO.LN), OSB Group (OSB.LN), Savills (SVS.LN), Fraport AG Frankfurt Airport Services Worldwide (FRA.GR) and Flughafen Wien (FLU.AV) will be among few other companies to update investors. On the macro-calendar, Switzerland Feb PPI, Eurozone Jan industrial production and UK Feb house price balance - RICS will be the main releases
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers: Insurance +1.64%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.60%, Banks +1.55%, Financial Svcs +1.40%, Oil & Gas +1.31%, Construct & Mtls +1.22%, Technology +1.09%, Chemicals +1.00%, Media +0.87%
Underperformers: Retail (3.18%), Basic Resources (0.72%), Telecom (0.50%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.33%), Utilities (0.27%), Travel & Leisure (0.19%), Food & Beverage (0.18%), Health Care +0.31%, Real Estate +0.38%, Autos & Parts +0.43%
Macro:
EU wields 'sledgehammer' against Trump tariffs (Politico)
Dental floss and diamonds in EU sights to counter US tariffs (Reuters)
How UK and France led dogged effort to repair US-Ukraine ties - for now (Guardian)
Putin Eyes Way to Agree to Truce Terms With His Own Conditions (BBG)
Ukrainian territorial concessions part of US peace plan (Telegraph)
German Arms Maker Rheinmetall Has Record Sales in 'Era of Rearmament' (NY Times)
Financial watchdog scraps plan to 'name and shame' UK firms under investigation (Guardian)
EU needs to take action on tariffs says Italy's Urso (Ansa)
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+48.6% NEL.NO (NEL ASA NOK2.92, +0.95) -- SAMSUNG E&A (028050.KS) share purchase and collaboration agreement
+37.9% ZEAL.DC (Zealand Pharma DKK674.00, +185.20) -- collaboration with Roche (ROG.SW)
+21.0% SOLG.LN (SolGold £0.07, +0.01) -- to sell 157.1M own shares to Jiangxi Copper Company Limited (358.HK)
+13.7% AGFB.BB (Agfa-Gevaert €0.89, +0.11) -- reports Q4 net income (€63M) vs FactSet (€42.8M) [1 est]
+13.4% HOC.LN (Hochschild Mining £2.18, +0.26) -- reports FY EPS pre-exceptional $0.23 vs FactSet $0.25 [9 est, $0.21-0.30]; re-instates divi and guides FY25
+9.2% PRT.IM (Esprinet €4.98, +0.42) -- earnings
+9.0% ENR.GR (Siemens Energy €57.88, +4.80) -- $1.6 billion project in Saudi Arabia
+8.7% RHM.GR (Rheinmetall €1,254.00, +100.50) -- reports FY operating result €1.48B vs FactSet €1.43B [15 est, €1.30-1.51B]
+8.3% HILS.LN (Hill & Smith £18.78, +1.44) -- reports FY underlying EPS 122.6p vs FactSet 118.5p [8 est, 116.3-120.0p]
+8.2% IRLAB.A.SS (IRLAB Therapeutics SEK5.52, +0.42) -- publishes preclinical data on mesdopetam in the esteemed European Journal of Neuroscience
+6.5% WCH.GR (Wacker Chemie €80.56, +4.94) -- reports FY net income €260.7M vs preliminary €265M; issues Q1 and FY25 guidance
+6.4% MAAT.FP (Maat Pharma €6.02, +0.36) -- positive opinion from EMA Pediatric Committee on the Pediatric Investigation Plan for MaaT013
+4.2% BBY.LN (Balfour Beatty £4.52, +0.18) -- reports FY underlying EPS 43.6p vs consensus 39.8p; further profitable growth from earnings-based businesses expected for 2025 and 2026
+3.9% ROG.SW (Roche Holding CHF308.00, +11.50) -- collaboration with Zealand Pharma
+3.8% EQT.SS (EQT AB SEK308.10, +11.30) -- board resolves on share repurchase
+3.5% ASCN.SW (Ascom Holding CHF3.83, +0.13) -- earnings
+3.4% IGR.LN (IG Design Group £0.60, +0.02) -- completes sale of distribution facility at Pennsylvania to Union PA Holdings for $8.4M
+2.9% IGP.LN (Intercede Group £1.42, +0.04) -- new contract orders
+2.8% AMBEA.SS (Ambea AB SEK104.20, +2.80) -- to acquire Validia and enter the Finnish care market for purchase price of SEK 1,382M
+2.8% SAR.GA (GR Sarantis €13.02, +0.36) -- FY earnings
+2.7% AKVA.NO (AKVA Group NOK61.80, +1.60) -- to sell 21.55% stake in Abyss Group AS to Arcus Infrastructure Partners for net proceeds of approx. NOK 140M
+2.7% BPSO.IM (Banca Popolare di Sondrio €11.11, +0.29) -- approves new business plan 2025-27; targets 2027 net income €0.58B
+2.4% IPN.FP (Ipsen €111.50, +2.60) -- IRLAB publication
+2.4% ORTHEX.FH (Orthex €5.22, +0.12) -- earnings
+2.3% EMEIS.FP (Emeis SA €12.20, +0.28) -- partnership; reinstated outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
+2.2% URW.FP (Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield €76.50, +1.62) -- sells Bonaire shopping centre to Castellana for €305M
+2.1% BNR.GR (Brenntag €65.80, +1.36) -- reports FY EPS €3.71 vs consensus €3.96
+2.1% CON.GR (Continental €69.04, +1.40) -- approves spin-off of automotive; makes decisions on capital resources and future dividend policy
+2.0% THEP.FP (Thermador Groupe €67.30, +1.30) -- enters acquisition negotiations with shareholders of Quilinox
+1.6% SRE.LN (Sirius Real Estate £0.83, +0.01) -- to acquire Southampton Business Park with development opportunity and solar facility for £40.5M
+1.5% HAFNI.NO (Hafnia NOK44.98, +0.68) -- BW Group share purchase
+1.3% FORT.LN (Forterra Plc £1.61, +0.02) -- reports FY EPS 7.6p ex-items vs FactSet 7.2p [10 est, 6.6-8.2p]
+1.1% SFL.IM (Safilo Group €0.91, +0.01) -- reports final FY earnings: adj. net income €34.2M vs FactSet €24.8M; proposes up to 15M share buyback program
+0.8% GYC.GR (Grand City Properties €9.59, +0.08) -- reports preliminary FY adjusted EBITDA €335M vs FactSet €323.6M [10 est, €287-336M]
+0.8% PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding CHF1,279.50, +10.00) -- Partners Group expects its AuM growth to outpace broader private markets industry, increasing threefold over current cycle to more than $450B by 2033 -- CMD
+0.4% SFAB.SS (Solid Försäkring SEK81.40, +0.30) -- agrees with Garantipartner Skandinavien to acquire the assets and liabilities in the business
+0.3% ANIM.IM (Anima Holding SpA €6.96, +0.02) -- Banco BPM receives clearance from IVASS and the EU Commission in respect of FSR regulations regards tender offer for Anima Holding (post EU close 11-Mar)
+0.3% VIG.AV (Vienna Insurance Group €36.80, +0.10) -- reports FY EPS €4.98 vs FactSet €5.00 [4 est, €4.87-5.12]
Notable Decliners
-20.1% BFIT.NA (Basic-Fit €18.30, -4.61) -- reports FY Underlying net profit €43.6M vs FactSet €29.9M [7 est, €8-53.8M]
-20.0% PUM.GR (Puma €22.72, -5.69) -- guides Q1 adjusted EBIT around €70M vs FactSet €212.7M [3 est, €171-295.0M]
-20.0% PUM.GR (Puma €22.72, -5.69) -- reports final numbers in line with preliminary as of 22-Jan; Q4 EPS €0.16 vs year-ago €0.01
-13.5% ROSE.LN (Rosebank Industries £6.23, -0.98) -- withdraws proposed acquisition of Electrical Components International
-11.5% FOUR.LN (4imprint Group £42.35, -5.50) -- reports FY; CFO steps down
-8.2% ITX.SM (Inditex €44.71, -3.97) -- reports FY net income attributable €5.87B vs FactSet €5.86B [21 est, €5.78-5.94B], raises dividend +9% y/y, guides 2025
-8.0% BRNK.GR (Branicks Group €2.15, -0.19) -- reports FY FFO €0.63 vs FactSet €0.57
-6.8% CLAS.B.SS (Clas Ohlson SEK218.20, -15.80) -- reports Q3 EPS SEK6.72 vs FactSet SEK5.98 [2 est, SEK5.92-6.03]
-4.2% SPINN.FH (Spinnova €0.42, -0.02) -- CEO to leave
-3.9% DHER.GR (Delivery Hero €25.09, -1.01) -- confirms Uber Technologies has terminated the acquisition agreement for its foodpanda business in Taiwan
-3.6% TECN.SW (Tecan Group CHF178.60, -6.70) -- reports FY adjusted net income CHF103.1M vs year-ago CHF164.4M
-3.2% P911.GR (Porsche €54.98, -1.84) -- reports final FY EPS €3.94 vs FactSet €4.30 [21 est, €3.58-4.67]; repeats FY25 outlook
-3.0% THEON.NA (Theon International €18.64, -0.58) -- holder placing
-2.4% LGEN.LN (Legal & General Group £2.39, -0.06) -- reports FY Core operating EPS 20.23p vs consensus 20.57p
-1.3% CBOX.LN (Cake Box Holdings £1.88, -0.02) -- Cake Box to buy Ambala Foods for £22M; to place 3.9M shares at 180p/share, conduct £0.2M retail offer; provides trading update
-1.2% AVOL.SW (Avolta CHF37.82, -0.44) -- reports FY CORE net income CHF550M vs consensus CHF393M
-1.0% BVI.FP (Bureau Veritas €28.50, -0.28) -- Wendel (MF.FP) announces the entry into a prepaid 3-year forward sale of Bureau Veritas shares representing 6.7% of share capital
-1.0% KCO.GR (Kloeckner & Co. €6.88, -0.07) -- reports FY EBITDA €136M vs FactSet €126.5M [4 est, €122-130M]
-0.8% LDO.IM (Leonardo €43.36, -0.37) -- earnings; Industrial Plan update for the period 2025-29;downgraded to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux, downgraded to hold from buy at Equita
-0.3% KBHL.DC (Copenhagen Airports DKK6,400.00, -20.00) -- reports FY net income DKK1.04B vs year-ago DKK286M
-0.1% GYM.LN (Gym Group £1.34, -0.00) -- reports FY EPS 2.9p ex-items vs FactSet 0.9p [10 est, 0.0-1.5p]
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Benelux: Groupe Bruxelles Lambert (GBLB.BB),Nyxoah (NYXH.BB), Pharming (PHARM.NA)
DACHs: Hannover Re (HNR1.GR), Hugo Boss (BOSS.GR), K+S (SDF.GR), HelloFresh (HFG.GR), GRENKE (GLJ.GR), MLP (MLP.GR), Villeroy & Boch (VIB3.GR), Mensch und Maschine Software (MUM.GR), Accelleron Industries (ACLN.SW), Inficon (IFCN.SW), Interroll (INRN.SW), APG (APGN.SW), VP Bank (VPBN.SW), Rieter Holding (RIEN.SW), DocMorris (DOCM.SW), UNIQA Insurance (UQA.AV),
France: Rubis (RUI.FP), Voltalia (VLTSA.FP), STEF (STF.FP), Vantiva (VANTI.FP), SRP Groupe (SRP.FP), Verimatrix (VMX.FP)
Nordics: Columbus (COLUM.DC), Rusta (RUSTA.SS), Roblon (RBLN.B.DC), Biovica International (BIOVIC.B.SS)
Southern Europe: Enel (ENEL.IM), Generali (G.IM), Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IM), Reply (REY.IM), Webuild (WBD.IM), Carel Industries (CRL.IM), ACEA (ACE.IM), El.En. (ELN.IM), Avio (AVIO.IM), SeSa (SES.IM), Cembre (CMB.IM), D'Amico International Shipping (DIS.IM), Toscana Aeroporti (TYA.IM), Emak (EM.IM)
UK/Ireland: Bridgepoint (BPT.LN), Deliveroo (ROO.LN), OSB Group (OSB.LN), Savills (SVS.LN), Volution (FAN.LN), Helios Towers (HTWS.LN), Alfa Financial Software (ALFA.LN), Glenveagh Properties (GVR.ID), Restore (RST.LN), Secure Trust Bank (STB.LN), essensys (ESYS.LN), Gem Diamonds (GEMD.LN)
Traffic: Fraport AG Frankfurt Airport Services Worldwide (FRA.GR), Flughafen Wien (FLU.AV)
Trading Update: Trainline (TRN.LN), C&C Group (CCR.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Spain Jan Retail Sales +2.2% y/y vs cons +3.2% and prior revised +3.6% from +4.0%
Portugal Feb CPI +2.4% y/y vs preliminary +2.4%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Apr 25): +$1.46 or +2.20% to $67.71
€-$ (0.0006) or (0.05%) to 1.0914
£-$ +0.0029 or +0.22% to 1.2978
€-£ (0.0021) to 0.8411
S&P 500 +0.82%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +4.38%
DAX: +13.86%
CAC: +8.20%
MIB: +11.98%
Stoxx 600: +6.57%
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