Mar 13 ,2025
Synopsis:
European markets closed mostly lower with the exception of UK +0.02%, Italy +0.1%, Greece +0.3%, Denmark +1.5% and Norway +1.6%. Telecom, Utilities and Energy led outperforming sectors. Autos/Parts, Industrial Good/Services and Technology lagged.
Market sentiment remains cautious on growth concerns following Trump's pledge to respond to Europe and Canada's counter-tariffs. Softer US CPI not enough to sway expectations of a Fed hold next week, with cooler PPI not providing much additional support. Markets discounting three rate cuts by end-2025, while most analysts see two cuts, with two more in 2026. Strategists also voicing more concerns lately about downward revisions to US earnings expectations and year-end index price targets. Contrasts with upwards revisions to STOXX600 year-end targets on German fiscal boost.
Focus in Europe on Trump threat to impose 200% tariffs on EU alcohol imports if Europe fails to remove US whiskey tariff. Preliminary Bundestag discussions on proposed spending package also in focus. Green party so far refused proposal, but CDU/CSU Merz said to appease Greens' requests. Press reports also show EU seeking cohesion on defense financing and deregulation. UK PM Starmer reportedly to abolish NHS England in cost-cutting drive.
In central banks, Bank of France slashed 2025 growth forecast amid trade war concerns.
On the macro front, Eurozone industrial output showed signs of stabilization. ECB's Nagel sees inflation back at target by end-2025, while Kazaks noted more to do on inflation front. In UK, housing demand posted weakest month since late 2023 while corporate distress hit post-pandemic high. IEA released its oil market report .
On the reporting front, DACH names kicked off the session, with Hugo Boss (BOSS.GR), K+S AG (SDF.GR), GRENKE (GLJ.GR), DocMorris (DOCM.SW), Rieter Holding (RIEN.SW) and Inficon Holding (IFCN.SW) updating investors before the open; in M&A speculation, Warburg and KKR are in advanced talks to buy Gerresheimer (GXI.GR), whilst according to local German press RWE (RWE.GR) is seeking buyers for its stake in Amprion. In the insurance sector, Assicurazioni Generali (G.IM) reported FY and moved its AGM's date forward and Hannover Re (HNR1.GR) reported final FY earnings in line with preliminary numbers and also confirmed 2025 guidance. Elsewhere, Deliveroo (ROO.LN), Savills (SVS.LN) and Rusta (RUSTA.SS) were among few other names posting their most recent earning.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Telecom +1.13%, Utilities +0.80%, Oil & Gas +0.74%, Basic Resources +0.54%, Health Care +0.47%, Insurance +0.27%, Media (0.01%), Food & Beverage (0.18%)
Underperformers:
Autos & Parts (1.74%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.96%), Technology (0.95%), Travel & Leisure (0.76%), Retail (0.68%), Financial Svcs (0.59%), Chemicals (0.52%), Real Estate (0.42%), Construct & Mtls (0.29%), Banks (0.26%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.18%)
Peripheral markets:
Central Banks
EU
Europe and South Africa agreed to start talks on a new generation of trade deals - a Clean Trade and Investment Partnership - release
The 'rearm Europe' plan would lower the EU's 'AAA' rating headroom - Fitch
Europe's military heavyweights call for defense industry deregulation - Politico
Italy, Spain back France's plan to rescue EU chemicals industry - Politico
UK
France
Bank of France lowers growth forecast - release
Germany
Germany GDP forecast 2025 0.0% unchanged vs prior estimate, 2026 +1.5% vs prior +0.9% - IFW Institute
Greens reaffirm rejection of black-red financial package - Handelsblatt
The Union and SPD still have to fill these gaps in coalition negotiations - Handelsblatt
Institute raises German growth forecast for 2026 in anticipation of spending boom - Reuters
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+28.6% STB.LN (Secure Trust Bank £5.40, +1.20) -- FY earnings
+15.4% PHARM.NA (Pharming Group €0.83, +0.11) -- Q4 earnings
+13.7% ARN.IM (Alerion Cleanpower €13.94, +1.68) -- FY earnings
+12.3% FAN.LN (Volution Group £5.83, +0.64) -- H1 earnings
+10.5% OBD.LN (Oxford BioDynamics £0.01, -0.00) -- expands insurance partnership with Bupa UK
+10.2% DFS.LN (DFS Furniture £1.45, +0.13) -- H1 earnings
+8.5% GMS.LN (Gulf Marine Services £0.18, +0.01) -- contract
+8.1% APGN.SW (APG SGA CHF228.00, +17.00) -- FY earnings
+7.4% INRN.SW (Interroll Holding CHF2,325.00, +160.00) -- FY earnings
+6.3% R3NK.GR (Renk Group €37.96, +2.27) -- initiated buy at Jefferies
+6.1% RST.LN (Restore £2.26, +0.13) -- FY earnings; acquires Synertec
+5.8% UMI.BB (Umicore €8.90, +0.49) -- Goldman Sachs upgrade
+5.5% SSAB.A.SS (SSAB SEK67.32, +3.52) -- JPMorgan upgrade
+5.3% WBD.IM (Webuild €3.43, +0.17) -- FY earnings
+5.2% REY.IM (Reply €156.90, +7.80) -- FY earnings
+4.5% PAL.AV (Palfinger €27.70, +1.20) -- Berenberg upgrade
+4.4% DDRIL.NO (Dolphin Drilling AS NOK1.86, +0.08) -- message from Svelland Capital and B.O. Steen Shipping
+4.3% NYXH.BB (Nyxoah €9.68, +0.40) -- FY earnings
+4.0% SGG.SS (Sensys Gatso Group SEK43.20, +1.65) -- extends East providence, Rhode Island TRaaS contract by 5years, increasing value by SEK 65M
+3.4% OSB.LN (OSB Group £4.35, +0.14) -- FY earnings
+3.4% NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk DKK525.00, +17.40) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+3.3% SCATC.NO (Scatec NOK79.30, +2.50) -- signs 25-year USD-denominated PPA with with Egypt Aluminium for major solar + BESS project
+3.1% ACE.IM (ACEA €17.63, +0.53) -- FY earnings
+3.0% BWO.NO (BW Offshore NOK28.75, +0.85) -- sale of FPSO BW Pioneer with five-year O&M contract
+3.0% LOTB.BB (Lotus Bakeries €8,270.00, +240.00) -- KBC upgrade
+2.5% HOC.LN (Hochschild Mining £2.22, +0.05) -- RBC Capital Markets upgrade
+2.4% GE.IM (Gefran €9.46, +0.22) -- FY earnings
+2.2% MDG1.GR (Medigene €1.47, +0.03) -- files patent for novel NK-specific TCR construct with the European Patent Office
+1.9% FSTA.LN (Fuller, Smith & Turner £5.32, +0.10) -- business update
+1.7% IGG.LN (IG Group Holdings £9.41, +0.15) -- Q3 revenue
+1.6% IMM.LN (ImmuPharma £0.03, -0.00) -- significant milestone in evidencing the unique mechanism of action of its P140 autoimmune technology platform
Notable Decliners
-28.7% DOCM.SW (DocMorris CHF15.06, -6.06) -- FY earnings; evaluating options for raising equity of around CHF 200M
-22.0% BIOVIC.B.SS (Biovica International SEK1.20, -0.34) -- Q3 earnings
-19.2% GLJ.GR (GRENKE €13.84, -3.28) -- FY earnings
-18.8% CCR.LN (C&C Group £1.20, -0.28) -- trading update
-15.2% SAR.LN (Sareum Holdings £0.14, -0.03) -- acquires license for SRA737; raises £1.07M through issuance of 8.6M shares at 12.5p/share
-14.6% CABP.LN (CAB Payments Holdings £0.46, -0.08) -- FY earnings
-12.6% TRN.LN (Trainline £2.74, -0.40) -- trading update; to commence £75M share repurchase program
-9.4% IFCN.SW (Inficon Holding CHF988.00, -102.00) -- FY earnings
-9.1% SVS.LN (Savills £9.01, -0.90) -- FY earnings
-8.9% MRN.FP (Mersen €19.86, -1.94) -- FY earnings
-8.4% VLTSA.FP (Voltalia €7.22, -0.66) -- FY earnings
-6.7% ORON.SW (ORIOR CHF23.00, -1.65) -- UBS downgrade
-6.5% SDF.GR (K+S AG €13.19, -0.92) -- Q4 earnings
-5.9% FR.FP (Valeo SE €9.57, -0.60) -- BNP Paribas Exane downgrade
-5.6% RIEN.SW (Rieter Holding CHF81.40, -4.80) -- FY earnings
-4.9% RUSTA.SS (Rusta SEK72.25, -3.75) -- Q3 earnings
-4.7% IDL.FP (ID Logistics Group €362.00, -18.00) -- FY earnings
-4.5% ROO.LN (Deliveroo £1.19, -0.06) -- FY earnings
-4.3% SPINN.FH (Spinnova €0.42, -0.02) -- CEO to step down
US Government announces it is reevaluating the NOx rules for heavy duty trucks
-4.3% DTG.GR (Daimler Truck Holding $39.04, -1.74)
-2.2% VOLV.B.SS (Volvo SEK308.80, -6.90)
-2.2% 8TRA.GR (TRATON €33.65, -0.75)
-4.2% GBF.GR (Bilfinger €66.70, -2.90) -- HSBC downgrade
-4.1% FME.GR (Fresenius Medical Care €42.72, -1.84) -- Medicare ending certain payment models early
-3.9% HFG.GR (HelloFresh €7.98, -0.32) -- FY earnings
-3.5% SAAB.B.SS (Saab SEK375.00, -13.50) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-2.8% VIB3.GR (Villeroy & Boch €15.80, -0.45) -- FY earnings
-2.8% AZA.SS (Avanza Bank Holding SEK304.90, -8.90) -- CFO to step down
-2.5% BPT.LN (Bridgepoint Group £3.39, -0.09) -- FY earnings
-2.4% VPBN.SW (VP Bank CHF80.00, -2.00) -- FY earnings
-1.5% GEMD.LN (Gem Diamonds £0.09, -0.00) -- FY earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: OCI (OCI.NA)
DACHs: Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW.GR), Daimler Truck Holding (DTG.GR), Bechtle (BC8.GR), Swiss Life Holding (SLHN.SW), StarragTornos Group (STGN.SW), Orell Füssli (OFN.SW), Lenzing (LNZ.AV)
Nordics: Sectra (SECT.B.SS), Green Hydrogen Systems (GREENH.DC)
Southern Europe: DiaSorin (DIA.IM), MARR (MARR.IM), Pharmanutra (PHNIM), TXT e-solutions (TXT.IM), The Italian Sea Group (TISG.IM), Aeroporto Guglielmo Marconi di Bologna (ADB.IM), Biesse (BSS.IM), Aeffe (AEF.IM)
UK: Air Astana (AIRA.LN), Vanquis Banking Group (VANQ.LN)
Trading Update: TFF Group (TFF.FP)
Analyst Meeting: D'Ieteren Group (DIE.BB)
Data:
Economics:
Sweden Feb CPI +1.3% y/y vs preliminary +1.3% (3:00ET)
Switzerland Feb PPI (0.1%) y/y vs consensus (0.2%) and prior (0.3%)
UK Feb house price balance 11% vs consensus 20% and prior revised 21% from 22% - RICS
Germany GDP forecast 2025 0.0% unchanged vs prior estimate, 2026 +1.5% vs prior +0.9% - IFW Institute
Eurozone Jan Industrial Production 0.0% y/y vs consensus (0.9%) and prior revised (1.5%) from (2.0%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Apr 25): ($0.82) or (1.21%) to $66.86
€-$ (0.0020) or (0.18%) to 1.0868
£-$ (0.0017) or (0.13%) to 1.2947
€-£ (0.0005) to 0.8394
S&P 500 (1.01%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +4.52%
DAX: +13.35%
CAC: +7.55%
MIB: +11.16%
Stoxx 600: +6.47%
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