Mar 13 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open flat to lower, whilst Asian equities mixed Thursday. Greater China markets turning negative as regional benchmarks come off highs. Japan outperforming with Korea holding onto slight gain while Australia and Taiwan logging mild decline.
Market sentiment remains cautious with softer US CPI not enough to sway expectations of a Fed hold next week (markets still pricing in three rate cuts by end-2025). Moreover, inflation seemingly taking backseat to growth concerns as tariff volatility and tit-for-tat escalation continue to drive recession talk. Strategists also voicing more concerns lately about downward revisions to earnings expectations and year-end index price targets.
Attention remains fixed on tariffs after President Trump threatened to respond to EU's retaliatory tariffs on US goods. Both EU and Canada announced tariffs in response to US steel and aluminum tariffs that went into effect Wednesday. Attention moving ahead to expected announcement on reciprocal tariffs on 2-Apr. There is also possibility of additional tariffs with Trump in coming weeks to receive findings of trade review he ordered in January.
In central banks, ECB's Guindos fireside chat at 10:50CET ar EIOPA Sustainable Finance Conf, Bundesbank's Köhler-Geib panellist at 10:00CET at event hosted by IfW Kiel, also Bank of Finland's Rehn on panel, and Bundesbank's Balz panellist at 18:00CET at event hosted by the bank. Austria central bank's Holzmann, Kocher (designated new governor) speech at 17:00CET at conf on energy transition. Bundesbank's Nagel, Bank of France's Villeroy panellists at 19:00CET at event hosted by diplo. Estonia central bank's Müller lecture at the Estonian Business School Mainor. Latvia central bank's Kazāka interview on TV24.
On today's agenda, IEA oil market report. Also, IfW Kiel gives views at 9:30CET on the economic situation. Elsewhere, European Council President Costa and EU's von der Leyen to participate in the 8th EU-South Africa summit, EU's Kallas participates in the G7 Foreign Ministers' Meeting (through Fri), EU's Albuquerque participates in an informal meeting of EU Finance Ministers at invitation of the Spanish Finance Minister and EU's Tzitzikostas delivers a keynote speech at the CLIA Cruise Week 2025. Also, Norway's Minister of Trade, Industry and Fisheries Myrseth is in Brussels and will have meetings with the EU Commission, whilst Minister of Fisheries and Oceans Næss participates in the Sustainable Feed Conf. Event at 18:00CET with Germany's Environment Minister Thekla Walker and EnBW's (EBK.GR) Stamatelopoulos on the energy transition. European Institute and LSESU French Society host event at 14:00GMT title France's financial situation and Europe: what's next? and Nordic Co-operation hosts Nordic Day in Lithuania.
On the macro data front, Switzerland Feb PPI, Eurozone Jan industrial production, Sweden Feb final CPI, Ireland Feb CPI, UK Feb house price balance - RICS
Busy morning for earnings with heavyweight, Generali (G.IM) reporting FY earnings with number mostly in line with consensus and a dividend hiked by ~12%. In DACHs, DocMorris (DOCM.GR), Hugo Boss (BOSS.GR), and K+S AG (SDF.GR) are amongst other in the region to update investors with their latest numbers.
In the Netherlands, Royal Vopak (VPK.NA) issued a CMD update today indicating that it will increase operating cash return ambition to above 13% from 12% previously and increase ambition to grow in gas and industrial infrastructure by an additional €1B. Also due to report today includes, Hannover Re (HNR1.GR), HelloFresh (HFG.GR), Enel (ENEL.IM), Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IM), Bridgepoint (BPT.LN), Deliveroo (ROO.LN), OSB Group (OSB.LN), and Savills (SVS.LN).
In M&A, Bloomberg reported that Warburg and KKR in advanced talks to buy Gerresheimer (GXI.GR). Also in DACHs, RWE (RWE.GR) is reportedly looking for buyers of its 25% stake in transmission system operator Amprion with interested parties now expected to submit first bids, Handelsblatt reports .
Politics/Macro/World News
Portugal faces third election in three years as government loses confidence vote - The Guardian
Russia lays out demands for talks with US on Ukraine, sources say - Reuters
London to Suffer UK's Worst Drop in House Prices, Surveyors Predict - Bloomberg
Starmer in race to secure trade deal to dodge Trump tariffs - The Times
Europe's military heavyweights call for defense industry deregulation - Politico
Italy, Spain back France's plan to rescue EU chemicals industry - Politico
Top company news
Earnings/updates
DACHs
FHZN.SW (Flughafen Zuerich) -- reports Feb traffic statistics
ACLN.SW (Accelleron Industries) -- reports FY EPS $1.81 vs FactSet $1.97 [6 est, $1.85-2.03]
INRN.SW (Interroll Holding) -- reports FY net income CHF62.5M vs FactSet CHF59.8M [8 est, CHF52-63M]
FRA.GR (Fraport) -- reports February Frankfurt Airport traffic statistics: passengers 8.4M, +0.2% y/y
IFCN.SW (Inficon Holding) -- reports FY24 net income $112.8M vs FactSet $106.4M [10 est, $99.8-110.1M]; guides FY25 revenue $660-710M vs FactSet $721.2M; proposes share split
DOCM.SW (DocMorris) -- reports FY net income from continued operations (CHF97.3M) vs FactSet (CHF95.0M) [13 est, (CHF113.5)-(82.9M)]; evaluating options for raising equity of around CHF 200M
VPBN.SW (VP Bank) -- reports FY net income CHF18.5M vs year-ago CHF44.2
GLJ.GR (GRENKE) -- reports FY EPS €1.44 vs FactSet €1.48 [5 est, €1.44-1.59]
RIEN.SW (Rieter Holding) -- reports FY net income CHF10.4M vs FactSet CHF13.6M [3 est, CHF3.4-23.3M], guides 2025
APGN.SW (APG SGA) -- reports FY net income CHF30.3M vs FactSet CHF29.2M [1 est]
SDF.GR (K+S AG) -- reports Q4 adj EPS (€0.06) vs consensus €0.12; cuts divi by ~79% and guides FY25
MLP.GR (MLP) -- reports FY EPS €0.63 vs FactSet €0.61 [3 est, €0.59-0.64]
HNR1.GR (Hannover Re) -- reports final FY in line with preliminary; confirms 2025 guidance
FLU.AV (Flughafen Wien) -- reports Feb group total passenger traffic +5.0% to 2.5M
MZX.GR (Masterflex) -- reports preliminary FY EBIT €12.7M vs FactSet €12.9M [3 est, €12.8-12.9M] and guidance range of €12M to €15M
Southern Europe
BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) -- BBVA aiming to double revenue in CIB unit in 2029 - Bloomberg (12-Mar, 16:15 CET)
TPEIR.GA (Piraeus Financial Holdings) -- Piraeus Bank S.A. to acquire 90.01% stake in Ethniki Insurance from CVC
G.IM (Assicurazioni Generali) -- reports FY adj net income €3.77B vs consensus €3.83B; hikes divi by ~12%
LNDR.IM (Landi Renzo) -- reports preliminary FY revenue €272.4M vs FactSet €278M [1 est] (post EU close 12-Mar)
Benelux
NYXH.BB (Nyxoah) -- reports FY EPS (€1.81) vs FactSet (€1.74) [9 est, (€1.91)-(1.44)]
VPK.NA (Royal Vopak) -- CMD update: increases operating cash return ambition to above 13% vs previous ambition of above 12%, increases ambition to grow in gas and industrial infrastructure by an additional €1B
PHARM.NA (Pharming Group) -- reports Q4 EPS $0.01 vs FactSet $0.00 [3 est, $0.00-0.00]
France
VLTSA.FP (Voltalia) -- reports FY net income (€20.9M) vs FactSet (€9.2M) [7 est, (€24.4)-10M]
IDL.FP (ID Logistics Group) -- reports FY net income €53.9M vs FactSet €58.2M [5 est, €56-63.7M]
MRN.FP (Mersen) -- reports FY net income attributable €59.0M vs FactSet €59.7M [6 est, €55.1-64M]
Nordics
RUSTA.SS (Rusta) -- reports Q3 net income SEK257M vs FactSet SEK260M [3 est, SEK243-269M]
Also due to report today includes
Earnings:
Benelux: Groupe Bruxelles Lambert (GBLB.BB),
DACHs: HelloFresh (HFG.GR), Villeroy & Boch (VIB3.GR), Mensch und Maschine Software (MUM.GR), UNIQA Insurance (UQA.AV),
France: Rubis (RUI.FP), STEF (STF.FP), Vantiva (VANTI.FP), SRP Groupe (SRP.FP), Verimatrix (VMX.FP)
Nordics: Columbus (COLUM.DC), Roblon (RBLN.B.DC), Biovica International (BIOVIC.B.SS)
Southern Europe: Enel (ENEL.IM), Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IM), Reply (REY.IM), Webuild (WBD.IM), Carel Industries (CRL.IM), ACEA (ACE.IM), El.En. (ELN.IM), Avio (AVIO.IM), SeSa (SES.IM), Cembre (CMB.IM), D'Amico International Shipping (DIS.IM), Toscana Aeroporti (TYA.IM), Emak (EM.IM)
UK/Ireland: Bridgepoint (BPT.LN), Deliveroo (ROO.LN), OSB Group (OSB.LN), Savills (SVS.LN), Volution (FAN.LN), Helios Towers (HTWS.LN), Alfa Financial Software (ALFA.LN), Glenveagh Properties (GVR.ID), Restore (RST.LN), Secure Trust Bank (STB.LN), essensys (ESYS.LN), Gem Diamonds (GEMD.LN)
Trading Update: Trainline (TRN.LN), C&C Group (CCR.LN)
M&A
TEF.SM (Telefonica) -- Millicom to purchase Telefonica's 67.5% stake in Coltel for $400M
GXI.GR (Gerresheimer) -- Warburg and KKR in advanced talks to buy Gerresheimer -- Bloomberg, citing sources
TPEIR.GA (Piraeus Financial Holdings) -- Piraeus Bank S.A. to acquire 90.01% stake in Ethniki Insurance from CVC
HHH (Howard Hughes Holdings) -- Pershing Square extends standstill with Howard Hughes Holdings to 7-Apr-25
AMG.NA (AMG Critical Materials) -- completes repurchase of 40% ownership interest in Graphit Kropfmühl GmbH
DWL.LN (Dowlais Group Plc) -- Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period for proposed AAM-Dowlais combination expires
BWO.NO (BW Offshore) -- announces sale of FPSO BW Pioneer with five-year O&M contract; initial payment of $100M
ALERS.FP (Eurobio-Scientific) -- to acquire the assets of the Life Science unit of Voden Medical Instruments Spa.
RWE.GR (RWE) -- seeking buyers for its stake in Amprion; interested parties now expected to submit first bids. -- Handelsblatt, citing sources (12-Mar, 1640 CET)
Healthcare
UCB.BB (UCB) -- announces Epilepsia publishes final analysis of open-label extension study of long-term safety and effectiveness of Fintepla
ZLAB (ZAI Lab) -- receives NMPA acceptance of BLA filing for TIVDAK for the treatment of patients with recurrent or metastatic cervical cancer
HPHA.GR (Heidelberg Pharma) -- and HealthCare Royalty amend royalty financing agreement; Heidelberg to receive $20M upon signature
Other
AIR.FP (Airbus SE) -- announces New York State Police ordered Airbus H160 and three H145 helicopters
AIR.FP (Airbus SE) -- GDAT and Airbus sign services contract for H225 fleet
DHL.GR (DHL Group) -- to hire workers in locations like Malaysia if US President Trump removes tax exemption for lower-value shipments - Bloomberg
LDO.IM (Leonardo) -- announces multiple contracts, includes £293M Apache Integrated Operational Support contract by UK MoD
DANSKE.DC (Danske Bank) -- releases 2024 sustainability report
TIGO.SS (Millicom International Cellular) -- SEC filing: SCHEDULE 13D/A (Filed by Atlas Investissement)
JET2.LN (Jet2) -- announces the final repurchase price of the repurchase of its existing convertible bonds due 2026
PLX.FP (Pluxee) -- announces the launch of its first commercial paper program (NEU CP) for up to €400M
D-Wave reports quantum computing breakthrough; Google releases new AI models for robots in thematic and ESG intraday updates (12-Mar)
Index changes: Schibsted Ser. A added to OBX index; Tomra excluded
Key rating changes
Upgrades
ASC.LN (Asos) -- to hold from reduce at HSBC
COLO.B.DC (Coloplast) -- to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan
NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
SPX.LN (Spirax Group) -- to buy from hold at HSBC
SU.FP (Schneider Electric) -- to buy from sell at Goldman Sachs
UMI.BB (Umicore) -- to neutral from sell at Goldman Sachs
HOC.LN (Hochschild Mining) -- to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets
PAL.AV (Palfinger) -- to buy from hold at Berenberg
LOTB.BB (Lotus Bakeries) -- to accumulate from hold at KBC
Downgrades
BP.LN (BP) -- to neutral from outperform at Santander (earlier, timing uncertain)
GBF.GR (Bilfinger) -- to hold from buy at HSBC
FRES.LN (Fresnillo) -- to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets
PUM.GR (Puma) -- to hold from buy at Stifel
PUM.GR (Puma) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
FR.FP (Valeo SE) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
SYNT.LN (Synthomer) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
SAAB.B.SS (Saab) -- to reduce from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Others
JD.LN (JD Sports Fashion) -- reinitiated buy at Redburn Atlantic
Data
Nikkei (0.08%) to 36790.03
Hang Seng (0.82%) to 23407.72
Shanghai Composite (0.40%) to 3358.36
S&P futures (32.8) vs prior close of 5604.8
€-$ (0.0011) or (0.10%) to 1.0877
$-¥ (0.50) or (0.34%) to 147.75
€-¥ (0.72) or (0.45%) to 160.70
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