Mar 14 ,2025
Synopsis:
European markets closed higher, near best levels. Basic Resources, Banks and Construction/Materials lead; Media, Healthcare and Real Estate lag. Follows mixed performance on Thursday. Dollar index down 0.1%. Gold up 0.4%; earlier broke above $3,000/oz for the first time. Bitcoin futures up 4.5%. WTI crude up 0.3%.
Markets showing some relief following US lawmakers averting government shutdown but also big rally in China stocks on NFRA pledge to boost consumption (and expectations for an RRR cut next week). Markets focused on US recession possibility and escalating global trade war. Putin seemingly open to ceasefire proposal also positive, although Russian demands may yet be impossible for Ukraine to accept. More positive tone surrounding US-Canada trade frictions after Commerce Lutnick had "productive" meeting with Canadian ministers and Ontario's Doug Ford on Thursday. Yet, markets remain unnerved by haphazard tariff announcements. Trade uncertainty likely to persist over near-term amid ongoing talk about reciprocal tariffs in early April.
European bourses lifted by reports CDU/CSU-SPD and Greens reached deal on fiscal package. Final Feb inflation for Germany unchanged at 2.3%. France and Spain confirmed preliminary releases. UK's GDP in Jan down 0.1% versus 0.1% gain expected. Goldman Sachs downgraded UK GDP growth forecast to 0.9% y/y from 1.0% prior. UK industrial production also missed, at (1.5%) y/y versus (0.7%) expected. ECB's Lagarde warned of severe global consequences from escalating trade war, while Villeroy noted Trump's policies backfiring on US economy. Holzmann favors Apr pause.
In geopolitics, EU unveiled ambitious defense plan to counter Russia and support Ukraine. UK boosts defense exports with £2B lending increase.
On the reporting front, DACH names kicked off the session, with BMW (BMW.GR), Daimler Truck Holding (DTG.GR), Swiss Life Holding (SLHN.SW) and Lenzing (LNZ.AV) updating investors before the open; in M&A news, the ECB authorized UniCredit (UCG.IM) to increase Commerzbank (CBK.GR) stake to 29.9%, with the Italian bank adding that the original timeline for deciding on whether to proceed or not with a potential combination is now likely to extend well beyond the end of 2025. In France, Kering (KER.FP)'s appointment of Balenciaga's Demna as the Gucci's new Artistic Director has not been welcomed by investors, with shares down (10%) at the open. Elsewhere, Italy's Enel (ENEL.IM) and Brunello Cucinelli (BC.IM) posted FY numbers after the close yesterday, whilst in the Benelux region, OCI NV (OCI.NA) released FY earnings and Koinon NV submits voluntary and conditional €15.50/sh public takeover bid on Roularta Media Group NV (ROU.BB).
Looking ahead to Monday's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 17-Mar to 21-Mar attached) Volkswagen Group Mobility (VOW.GR), Grand City Properties (GYC.GR), Phoenix Group Holdings (PHNX.LN), Marshalls (MSLH.LN), Bollore (BOL.FP) will be among other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Italy Feb final CPI, Spain Jan trade balance, UK Mar house price index - Rightmove, Norway Feb trade balance, Netherlands Jan trade balance.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Banks +2.24%, Ind Goods & Svcs +2.23%, Technology +1.98%, Basic Resources +1.90%, Construct & Mtls +1.57%, Financial Svcs +1.47%, Travel & Leisure +1.15%,
Underperformers:
Media (0.46%), Utilities +0.27%, Food & Beverage +0.31%, Telecom +0.33%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.43%, Health Care +0.47%, Insurance +0.48%, Chemicals +0.68%, Retail +0.71%, Autos & Parts +0.72%, Real Estate +0.86%, Oil & Gas +1.00%,
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
Armenia and Azerbaijan signal breakthrough in peace talks - FT
NATO chief opens door to restoring Russia relations after Ukraine war - Politico
Zelenskyy urges Trump to use 'strength of America' to force Moscow into ceasefire after US-Russia talks - The Guardian
Central Banks
EU
UK
Rayner and Cooper criticised cuts in 'tense' UK cabinet meeting - FT
Northern Ireland risks becoming 'collateral damage' in transatlantic trade war - FT
No 10 slaps down Reeves for suggesting Trump to blame for weak economy - The Telegraph
UK economy shrank unexpectedly in January - BBC
France
French vintner hopes Trump's tariff threat on European wine is just posturing - Reuters
Germany
Germany's Friedrich Merz agrees spending deal with Greens - FT
Karlsruhe rejects urgent motion against convening of the old Bundestag - Handelsblatt
New debt policy causes construction interest rates to rise drastically - Handelsblatt
Italy
Italy faces EU accounting change that could add billions to public debt - Reuters
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+18.7% LNZ.AV (Lenzing €33.15, +5.20) -- FY earnings
+11.6% HAS.LN (Hays Plc £0.85, +0.09) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
+10.7% SECT.B.SS (Sectra SEK245.00, +23.75) -- Q3 earnings
+10.6% NORBT.NO (Norbit NOK119.20, +11.40) -- order
+8.4% RCDO.LN (Ricardo £2.45, +0.19) -- Science Group increases stake in company plc to ~15.19%
+6.2% RDC.GR (Redcare Pharmacy €135.00, +7.90) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+5.8% ORS.IM (Orsero €12.44, +0.68) -- FY earnings
+5.5% ADEN.SW (Adecco Group CHF28.32, +1.48) -- BNP Paribas Exane upgrade
+4.9% HO.FP (Thales €248.50, +11.50) -- price target raised at Deutsche Bank
+4.6% REY.IM (Reply €164.50, +7.30) -- Deutsche Bank upgrade
+4.5% RUI.FP (Rubis €26.56, +1.14) -- Q4 earnings
+4.2% EBS.AV (Erste Group Bank €67.78, +2.74) -- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods upgrade
+4.1% IDIA.SW (Idorsia CHF1.14, +0.04) -- publication of positive data with daridorexant in patients with chronic insomnia and nocturia
+2.9% CARL.B.DC (Carlsberg DKK915.00, +25.60) -- RBC Capital Markets upgrade
+2.8% AAL.LN (Anglo American £23.20, +0.64) -- Anglo American launches job cut and assets sale process in UK and SA -- Reuters
+2.4% GSP.IM (Gas Plus €2.95, +0.07) -- gas production started at the Longanesi field with long production test
+2.3% INTRUM.SS (Intrum SEK28.74, +0.64) -- reaches settlement agreement with a minority creditor group and progresses with recapitalisation transaction
+2.3% CBK.GR (Commerzbank €23.70, +0.53) -- ECB authorizes UniCredit to increase company stake to 29.9%
+1.8% BKG.LN (Berkeley Group Holdings £36.24, +0.64) -- 4M trading update
+1.7% SHL.GR (Siemens Healthineers €52.10, +0.88) -- Oddo upgrade
+1.7% DMP.GR (Dermapharm Holding €38.55, +0.65) -- prelim FY earnings
Trading Lower:
-15.0% ELN.IM (El.En. €9.42, -1.68) -- FY earnings
-10.3% KER.FP (Kering €224.30, -25.80) -- appoints Demna as Gucci's new Artistic Director starting early July
-7.2% BIOVIC.B.SS (Biovica International SEK1.11, -0.09) -- Pareto downgrade
-5.7% BOY.LN (Bodycote £6.00, -0.36) -- FY earnings
-5.3% VANQ.LN (Vanquis Banking Group £0.52, -0.03) -- FY earnings
-5.1% GOGL.NO (Golden Ocean Group NOK80.92, -4.38) -- reinstated sell at DnB Markets
-3.3% OCI.NA (OCI NV €11.04, -0.38) -- FY earnings
-2.6% SLHN.SW (Swiss Life Holding CHF767.00, -20.20) -- FY earnings
EU companies reporting Monday:
Earnings:
DACHs: Grand City Properties (GYC.GR), Lithium Americas (Argentina) (WUC.GR)
France: Bollore (BOL.FP), Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies (ALGHR.FP)
Nordics: Glunz & Jensen Holding (GJ.DC)
Southern Europe: Moltiply Group (MOL.IM), Newlat Food (NWL.IM), Valsoia (VLS.IM), Aegean Airlines (AEGN.GA)
UK: Phoenix Group Holdings (PHNX.LN), Marshalls (MSLH.LN), Diversified Energy Co. (DEC.LN), Beeks Financial Cloud Group (BKS.LN), Eagle Eye Solutions Group (EYE.LN)
CMD/events: Volkswagen Group Mobility (VOW.GR) annual press conf 11:00CET
Data:
Economics:
Feb CPI
Germany +2.3% y/y vs preliminary +2.3%
France +0.8% m/m vs preliminary +0.8%
Spain +3.0% y/y vs preliminary +3.0%
Finland Jan CPI +0.5% y/y vs consensus +0.6% and prior +0.7%
Sweden Feb Unemployment Rate 9.4% vs consensus 10.4% and prior 10.4%
UK Jan
Industrial Production (1.5%) y/y vs consensus (0.7%) and prior (1.9%)
Construction Output +0.2% y/y vs consensus +0.4% and prior +1.5%
Italy Jan Industrial Production (0.6%) y/y vs consensus (4.7%) and prior revised (6.9%) from (7.1%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Apr 25): +$0.42 or +0.63% to $66.97
€-$ +0.0027 or +0.25% to 1.0881
£-$ (0.0029) or (0.22%) to 1.2921
€-£ +0.0041 to 0.8422
S&P 500 +1.80%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +5.62%
DAX: +15.45%
CAC: +8.77%
MIB: +13.07%
Stoxx 600: +7.68%
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