Mar 17 ,2025
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly higher following last week's losses. European equity markets continued to outperform US peers last week week, but nominal performance remained broadly negative with STOXX600 posting the largest weekly decline in three months, down almost (1.3%) and FTSE also posting its second consecutive weekly decline, down (0.52%). Recall last week, Energy, Utilities and Insurance outperformed, while Retail, Travel & Leisure and Healthcare lagged. Volatility was triggered by back and forth on US tariff policies. An agreement on Friday between Germany's CDU/CSU-SPD and Greens on a massive fiscal package moderated losses, alongside a US-Ukraine ceasefire agreement which reports suggest Putin may also accept (with additional terms). Note that Trump plans to speak to Putin Tuesday. According to reports (CNN , Guardian ), Trump says Ukraine-Russia peace talks looking at 'dividing up certain assets'. Both parties will discuss land and powerplants in Ukraine ceasefire talks
This week sees BOE, Fed, Riksbank, SNB and BoJ interest rate decisions, OECD interim economic outlook, EU leaders summit, Germany ZEW survey and UK Feb claimant count as well as earnings/updates from the likes of Jeronimo Martins (JMT.PL), Prudential (PRU.LN), RTL Group (RRTL.GR) and RWE (RWE.GR).
European macro data releases due today include Italy Feb final CPI, Spain Jan trade balance, UK Mar house price index - Rightmove, Norway Feb trade balance, Netherlands Jan trade balance
In macro developments, China Jan-Feb activity data better than expected; Moody's upgraded Greece to investment grade; UK Chancellor is meeting regulators in Downing Street today as she unveils action plan to cut red tape as part of Plan for Change to kickstart economic growth;
Stocks in focus this morning include VW (VOW3.GR) amid report (later denied) that Porsche family considering selling billion-dollar stake in Volkswagen. Elsewhere, focus on media M&A as General Atlantic reportedly near deal to take up-to-10% stake in ProSiebenSat.1 Media (PSM.GR) and reports talks to combine ITV (ITV.LN), All3Media are progressing.
Eyes on UK supermarkets after shares of Tesco (TSCO.LN) and Sainsbury (SBRY.LN) fell some 8-9% on Friday on back of Asda's profit warning.
In central banks today, Latvia central bank's Kazāks speech at 9:00CET at Financial Literacy Week 2025 and Brikše interview on LTV's Rīta panorama (program runs 7:30-9:35CET). Austria central bank's Stiftinger press conf at 10:00CET on development of Banks' lending and deposit business. There's the first of the ECB's Economic Bulletin pre-release at 10:00CET. OECD interim economic outlook will be released at 11:00CET whilst ifo economic forecast Spring 2025 released at 10:30CET. On the political front, EU Foreign Affairs Council and Informal meeting of EU transport ministers (through Tue) whilst EU Energy Council meets. Standing with Syria - Brussels ninth conf., with EU's von der Leyen among the participants. EU's Šefčovič participates in the meeting of the EU-UK Parliamentary Partnership Assembly. In UK, parliamentary committee topics include home-based working (14:15GMT) whilst Nordic Co-operation's Nordic Day in Denmark: Societal preparedness and young people
Bank holiday in Ireland (St. Patrick's Day) on Mon, though markets remain open.
Politics/Macro/World News
ECB
ECB to Cut Rates by Less as Europe Ramps Up Spending, Poll Shows -- Bloomberg
ECB's Guindos confident inflation will come down to 2%; says uncertainty of current environment higher than uring pandemic -- Sunday Times
Greece
Moody's Ratings upgrades Greece's ratings to Baa3 from Ba1, changes outlook to stable from positive -- link
UK
Chancellor to unveil action plan to deliver on pledge to cut administrative cost of regulation on business by a quarter -- GOV.UK
Reeves to restrict UK competition watchdog's merger investigations -- FT
Rightmove: Property market faces 'massive log-jam' ahead of Stamp Duty changes -- Estate Agent Today
'Ominous' sign as UK manufacturing output falls in first quarter -- Times
France/EU
Macron to EU colleagues: Stop buying American, buy European -- POLITICO
Top company news
Earnings/updates
GYC.GR (Grand City Properties) -- reports final FY earnings inline with prelim. release: FFO I per share €1.08 vs FactSet €1.08; reaffirms 2025 guidance
MARR.IM (Marr) -- reports FY net income €42.7M vs FactSet €44.6M [6 est, €42.1-48M]
Also reporting today
Earnings:
DACHs: Lithium Americas (Argentina) (WUC.GR)
France: Bollore (BOL.FP), Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies (ALGHR.FP)
Nordics: Glunz & Jensen Holding (GJ.DC)
Southern Europe: Moltiply Group (MOL.IM), Newlat Food (NWL.IM), Valsoia (VLS.IM), Aegean Airlines (AEGN.GA)
UK: Phoenix Group Holdings (PHNX.LN), Marshalls (MSLH.LN), Diversified Energy Co. (DEC.LN), Beeks Financial Cloud Group (BKS.LN), Eagle Eye Solutions Group (EYE.LN)
CMD/events: Volkswagen Group Mobility (VOW.GR) annual press conf 11:00CET
M&A
VOW3.GR (Volkswagen)
Porsche Automobil Holding not selling any Volkswagen shares - Reuters
Porsche family considering selling billion-dollar stake in Volkswagen - Bild Zeitung
ITV.LN (ITV) -- Talks to combine ITV, All3Media progressing - Mail on Sunday
PSM.GR (ProSiebenSat.1 Media) -- General Atlantic near deal to take up-to-10% stake in ProSiebenSat.1 Media - Bloomberg
UBXN.SW (u-blox Holding) -- to divest its Cellular business to Trasna; terms undisclosed; webcast at 14:00 CET
PRS.SM (Prisa), VIV.FP (Vivendi) -- Spain pressure Vivendi to sell its stake in Prisa -- Le Point
Ardian near deal to acquire Akuo Energy for €1B ($1.09B/£844.2M) - Bloomberg
AKZA.NA (Akzo Nobel) -- Blackstone makes non-binding $1.2B (INR104.17B) offer for Akzo Nobel India's paints business - Business Standard
BVI.FP (Bureau Veritas) -- announces acquisition of GeoAssay in Chile; terms undisclosed
Healthcare
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- FDA grants orphan drug designation to faricimab for Coats disease
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Roche to share latest scientific advancements from its neuromuscular portfolio at Muscular Dystrophy Association (MDA) 2025 conference
IDIA.SW (Idorsia) -- Idorsia's TRYVIO released from FDA's REMS (Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy) requirement
BIOA.B.SS (BioArctic) -- FDA grants orphan drug designation to exidavnemab for MSA
BGBIO.NO (BerGenBio) -- updates on strategic review
Other
SAP.GR (SAP) -- to launch Japanese version of AI agent service as early as this month - Nikkei
UBSG.SW (UBS Group) -- publishes Sustainability Report 2024
BA.LN (BAE Systems) -- awarded $188.5M US Navy contract modification
BME.LN (B&M European Value Retail) -- David Potts among leading candidates to be B&M European Value Retail CEO - Sunday Times
BAER.SW (Julius Baer Group) -- releases sustainability report
AZE.BB (Azelis Group) -- announces €1M LTIP share repurchase program under its long-term stimulus plan
Aegean Airlines places a firm order for 8 additional Airbus A321 neo aircraft (8:27ET)
Canada looking at alternatives to F-35 - CBC
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $50.8M, (42.1%) y/y - Box Office Mojo
Glass Lewis recommends Rio Tinto shareholders vote for Palliser's resolution to conduct proper examination into unification of the company's DLC structure
Regional Gaming Revenues - New Jersey February 2025
T-Mobile US holder Deutsche Telekom discloses entry into Rule 10b5-1 plan of sale - 13D/A
Key rating changes
Upgrades
(NULL) -- Bernstein upgrades NG.LN; downgrades FORTUM.FH, ORSTED.DC
ARGX.BB (argenx) -- to outperform from underperform at Bernstein
CVSG.LN (CVS Group) -- to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets
FORT.LN (Forterra Plc) -- to add from hold at Peel Hunt
GALP.PL (Galp Energia SGPS) -- to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley
KGX.GR (Kion Group) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
VOW3.GR (Volkswagen) -- to neutral from sell at UBS
Downgrades
ACS.SM (ACS SA) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
LEG.GR (LEG Immobilien) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
VNA.GR (Vonovia) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
ASC.LN (Asos) -- to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane
ASSA.B.SS (Assa Abloy) -- to hold from buy at DnB Markets
Initiations
MYTIL.GA (Metlen Energy & Metals) -- buy at Berenberg
Data
Nikkei +0.93% to 37396.52
Hang Seng +0.93% to 24181.76
Shanghai Composite +0.17% to 3425.54
S&P futures (34.5) vs prior close of 5640.0
€-$ (0.0000) or (0.00%) to 1.0882
$-¥ +0.16 or +0.11% to 148.96
€-¥ +0.19 or +0.12% to 162.08
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE